The Emperor's lousy contingency planning in ROTJ and precog

[Adam Reynolds]

I was just considering why exactly the Emperor failed to consider the possibility that the Endor garrison would fail and that the Death Star itself would need a backup plan. What if he deliberately left holes in the security under the assumption that Luke would be less likely to assume it was a trap if he were able to use his abilities to see a vision of the battle to come?

It fits the fact that the Emperor compromised other elements of security for the added psychological gain in his battle with Luke. Going with my theory that the Emperor's abilities were weakened as a result of Luke's gowing powers and thus presence in the Force, he failed to see the weakness in his own plans, something he was likely able to do easily in the PT era.

[Lord Revan]

I always took it as the Emperor being an arrogant prick and simply refusing to even consider a possibility where he might loose, Force Precog isn't perfect after all, it's stated outright that there's things a Force cannot see thru the Force and if a Force user thinks something is impossible it will make using the Force to do that task harder or outright impossible.

With Luke it was lifting his X-wing, for the Emperor it would be seeing a situations where he could fail thru the Force. After all the visions you get thru the Force aren't the absolute future as in "these things will happen if you don't take steps to stop them" but rather a potential future as in "these things might happen if you don't take steps to stop them or they might not, always in motion the future is "

[Eternal_Freedom]

In fairness to the Emperor, from his perspective it's hard to see how the Endor garrison could possibly have failed. He had an entire legion of crack troops, up against whatever the Rebels coul fit in a small shuttle they could sneak through the shield grid.

The fact that the Rebels won hinged on a number of utterly improbable events: just happening to stumble across the Ewoks, C-3PO just happening to resemble their God, Luke still being with the group to use his "magic" to convince them, the Ewoks knowing about the back door, the Ewoks being able to set up all those traps and diversions at such short notice, the officer in the bunker being gullible enough to open said door (though again, it wasn't entirely unreasonable from his POV) and the Rebels still having their demolition charges.

Seriously, if you worked out the odds on all of those it'd come up as millions to one. Would any of you seriously consider such absurd odds worth contemplating?

[Adam Reynolds]

and the Rebels still having their demolition charges.

That one in particular is especially odd. Why would the Empire let Rebel commandos keep their demo charges? That is absurdly overconfident that they would never get back inside the bunker.

There was a moment in Wraith Squadron where a similar event happened. The Wraiths gave the Empire the wrong backpack and Kell blew the door open anyway. Here the Empire was smart enough to force them to give over their explosives at gunpoint. At Endor, the Empire just assumed that the Rebel commandos would never get anywhere.

The Ewoks are not that forgivable either. The Empire clearly knew that sentient lifeforms were common in the galaxy and should have considered that primitives might be a potential threat. Whether or not they would have helped the Rebellion, they might be a threat.

[Simon_Jester]

I was just considering why exactly the Emperor failed to consider the possibility that the Endor garrison would fail and that the Death Star itself would need a backup plan. What if he deliberately left holes in the security under the assumption that Luke would be less likely to assume it was a trap if he were able to use his abilities to see a vision of the battle to come?

It fits the fact that the Emperor compromised other elements of security for the added psychological gain in his battle with Luke. Going with my theory that the Emperor's abilities were weakened as a result of Luke's gowing powers and thus presence in the Force, he failed to see the weakness in his own plans, something he was likely able to do easily in the PT era.

Thing is, in the prequel era Palpatine was up against a dozen or more Jedi masters, and every one of them we see for any extended time shows every sign of being just as powerful as Luke was.

Then again, those masters were actively trying to use the Force for precognitive purposes and found it 'clouded,' and were not specifically planning and moving against Palpatine personally. It may be that Force users have a harder time foreseeing events that are the direct result of another Force user acting against them- "prescience cancels prescience," as a dear friend would put it.

That would help explain why when Force users make plots directly involving another Force user, the successful ones usually rely on something other than pure "I know how this ends" to win. Luke places his reliance on the faith that there is a kernel of goodness left in Anakin. Palpatine placed his reliance on the kernel of fear he'd implanted in Anakin, that only Palpatine would be able to teach him how to save his wife.

Thus, the old Jedi found their prescience clouded by Palpatine because Palpatine was acting against them at every turn. When they tried to predict the outcomes of their own actions, they could not, because those outcomes were being manipulated by Palpatine without their knowledge.

But Palpatine's visions were more clear because the Jedi were not acting against him- they were reacting against his (predictable) pawns, and taking only the obvious actions against those pawns. So for him, the cycle of "I react to your reaction to my reaction" terminated in one iteration, rather than going back and forth endlessly and dissolving into unreadable confusion.

And as a result, Palpatine's faith in his own ability to manipulate and control Force users may well have become exaggerated, when in fact the reason he pulled it off was because his plan allowed him leeway to interfere with them in the Force, without himself being interfered with.

And I can see how as a result, Palpatine might become terminally arrogant, thinking his own command of the Force was so great that even other Force adepts were puppets dancing to his bidding. And also in that he totally neglected to seriously consider that Luke's non-Force-using allies might be able to blow up the shield generator bunker and win the day all by themselves. Either of those mistakes would have been enough to kill him separately.

and the Rebels still having their demolition charges.

That one in particular is especially odd. Why would the Empire let Rebel commandos keep their demo charges? That is absurdly overconfident that they would never get back inside the bunker.

I'm not sure exactly what cuts are and are not displayed, but as I recall, the Imperials who've captured the Rebel commando* are almost immediately interrupted by Ewoks.

So based on my limited memory of what actually happened in the movie... The Imperials may not have had time to fully search the rebels before getting mugged by cannibal attack teddy bears. Or they may have searched the rebels and removed their weapons, only to be mugged by teddy bears who promptly give the weapons right back to the rebels!
___________________

*The word 'commando' originally refers to a small party of mobile infiltrators, not to the individual members of that team. I sometimes use it in that way.

The Ewoks are not that forgivable either. The Empire clearly knew that sentient lifeforms were common in the galaxy and should have considered that primitives might be a potential threat. Whether or not they would have helped the Rebellion, they might be a threat.

This is true, although it may be that Palpatine did not know of the Ewoks or factored them out for some reason of his own, regarding them as irrelevant.

[Eternal_Freedom]

Well it should be noted that the Ewoks, while being highly inventive and rather brave were getting rather slaughtered until Chewie nicked that AT-ST at the right time. So, again, from Palpatine's perspective (or the other Imperial officers) I would consider it justified to not worry about the fuzzy little tree-dwelling teddy bears, if they even knew about them.

After all, there is the earlier extremely unlikely events I mentioned, the Rebel commando (see Simon? I can use fancy terms too ) meeting up with and co-opting the help of the Ewoks. That alone is unlikely enough that the Empire could reasonably have discounted them.

Hell, given that the Ewoks were perfectly happy to trap, cook and presumably eat the Rebels until Threepio intervened, I can quite easily see an Imperial officer assuming, with good reason, that any Rebel forces who encountered the Ewoks would be treated just as violently as Imperial troops had been previously. Thus, they won't help the Rebels and thus, we don't have to worry about them.

As with so many things when looking at fiction, it's important to differentiate what's reasonable to us as omniscient observers and what's reasonable to characters based solely upon what they know at the time. With that in mind, I can find no fault with the Empire's surface preparations.

[Lord Revan]

Yeah all too often it's forgotten that the in-universe characters don't have our God's eye view or that in-universe characters might not know things we know. Good example is the utter lack of Fog of War that's generally assumed to exist when critizing tactics, which is probably behind to obessesion to make force precog be utterly perfect.

think about it, which one is the more simpler explanation, that Palpatine (having played pretty much everyone for a fool during his rise to power) is so arrogant that seeing his own defeat is something he considers impossible and thus is unable to see a future where that would happen. The same way Luke was unable to lift his X-wing because he thought that feat to be impossible.

Or option 2 somehow, Luke and only Luke (as there's been Jedi at least as powerful as him) is somehow able to obscure or block Palpatine's Force Precog without Palpatine never even noticing it, something that's never even implied to be possible (even the Jedi noticed the Shroud of the Dark side).

[Anacronian]

I think that precog and force sensing in general is far more tricky than most people seem to think, For one I don't think the force ever volunteers information of any sort, Like it does not just pop up and tell Vader that Leia is his daughter onboard the Tantive IV and precog is probably even more difficult because you know "always in motion is the future" and all that.

Also, it should be mentioned that in the Return of the Jedi Palpatine only states that he has forseen that Luke will come to Vader and Vader will bring Luke to Palpatine which actually happens.

[Knife]

Or, Palpatine was shown through the Force his part in the events and was arrogant to think it was all of it. Based off of the prophecy, we know that some sort of God like plan is being played out by the Force. Anakin had to fall to the Dark Side by making horrible decisions, so Palpatine could take over, so Anakin could be in the right place at the right time faced with similar decisions after seeing his kid make the right decisions.

Yes, SW god of the Force is a dick, but thematically it works out. The Emperor was as arrogant as he accused the Old Jedi Order of being but was just acting on the information he gleaned from the force, every bit as much as the Jedi could a generation before. If it was indeed a plan set in motion by the Force, why would it show Palpatine it's plans to have Vader kill him off in an act of redemption? That particular part was shrouded from him, just as the fall of the Jedi was shrouded from Windu and Yoda 20 years prior.

[Patroklos]

I always took it as the Emperor being an arrogant prick and simply refusing to even consider a possibility where he might loose, Force Precog isn't perfect after all, it's stated outright that there's things a Force cannot see thru the Force and if a Force user thinks something is impossible it will make using the Force to do that task harder or outright impossible.

People who think like that can't win a hand of poker. This dude took over a Galaxy.

[Elheru Aran]

I always took it as the Emperor being an arrogant prick and simply refusing to even consider a possibility where he might loose, Force Precog isn't perfect after all, it's stated outright that there's things a Force cannot see thru the Force and if a Force user thinks something is impossible it will make using the Force to do that task harder or outright impossible.

People who think like that can't win a hand of poker. This dude took over a Galaxy.

People change. Palpatine was in power for 20+ years. Long enough to lose sight of the fact that there may be alternate paths which he hasn't bothered to look into because he's been calling the shots and can't imagine why someone else would do anything differently than he thinks they will.

[Eternal_Freedom]

I always took it as the Emperor being an arrogant prick and simply refusing to even consider a possibility where he might loose, Force Precog isn't perfect after all, it's stated outright that there's things a Force cannot see thru the Force and if a Force user thinks something is impossible it will make using the Force to do that task harder or outright impossible.

People who think like that can't win a hand of poker. This dude took over a Galaxy.

The two are not mutually exclusive. We never see Palpatine play Sabacc after all

[Lord Revan]

I always took it as the Emperor being an arrogant prick and simply refusing to even consider a possibility where he might loose, Force Precog isn't perfect after all, it's stated outright that there's things a Force cannot see thru the Force and if a Force user thinks something is impossible it will make using the Force to do that task harder or outright impossible.

People who think like that can't win a hand of poker. This dude took over a Galaxy.

The two are not mutually exclusive. We never see Palpatine play Sabacc after all

and besides it's possible that Palpatine was arrogant because he took over a galaxy not dispite it, I mean things had went more or less like Palpatine had planned.

[Eternal_Freedom]

That's true. Going purely on the films, he's had 20+ years of being uncontested top dog in his galactic empire, exactly as he planned and foresaw. That's going to puff up anyone's ego, a Sith Lord's even more so, since they aren't exactly lacking in arrogance to begin with.

[Lord Revan]

That's true. Going purely on the films, he's had 20+ years of being uncontested top dog in his galactic empire, exactly as he planned and foresaw. That's going to puff up anyone's ego, a Sith Lord's even more so, since they aren't exactly lacking in arrogance to begin with.

that and the fact that Palpatine essentially conned the Jedi Order and the Republic to destroy themselves so there's plenty of reasons for Palpatine to grow arrogant over the years.

[Zixinus]

I also wonder whether Palpatine's age played any part or how being an Emperor made him less grounded in reality. He stopped being throughout and careful because he could stop being so. I would not be surprised that between becoming Emperor, old age and the Dark Side, Palpatine was losing his grasp and going insane. It would explain how the Rebellion managed to survive a guy who took over the Republic.

[Lord Revan]

I also wonder whether Palpatine's age played any part or how being an Emperor made him less grounded in reality. He stopped being throughout and careful because he could stop being so. I would not be surprised that between becoming Emperor, old age and the Dark Side, Palpatine was losing his grasp and going insane. It would explain how the Rebellion managed to survive a guy who took over the Republic.

Possible but we should remember that a lot of methods Palpatine used to take down the Republic won't work against the Rebellion, for example Palpatine cannot pretend to not be involved with the Empire so it's harder for him to insert an agent to the rebellions to play them.

[Terralthra]

I also think that there's a certain blind spot in the Emperor's planning regarding military conflict. He was playing both sides in the CWs, so it didn't matter who was winning or losing, because he won either way. Separatists win? Still the boss.

He also focused on the Jedi to an (honestly) ridiculous extent. The only reason the Jedi end up suspecting that the Emperor is a Sith Lord is because Anakin tells Mace Windu that, in as many words. How does Anakin know? Palpatine told him! If Palpatine had shut his mouth, the Jedi were uneasy, but hardly ready to revolt. If Palpatine had slow-rolled his powers a bit more, the Jedi might have even had enough attrition to go along with the new regime anyway. He went to a lot of trouble to be able to wipe the order out on a moment's notice as an act of justice for an assassination attempt...he fomented? In other words, he didn't so much wipe out the Jedi as a step along the path to galactic power, he pursued galactic power in part to pursue a vendetta against the Jedi.

Combine the vendetta against the Jedi with being used to being in control of both sides of a military conflict, and it's entirely possible he focused so hard on killing or turning The Last Jedi that he more or less assumed that he'd be able to win the military conflict whenever he pleased (just like he could end the CWs whenever he wanted).

I guess what I'm trying to say is that Palpatine focused his foresight (and actions) based on what he perceived as the real threat: the Jedi remnant.

[Darth Tanner]

The only reason the Jedi end up suspecting that the Emperor is a Sith Lord is because Anakin tells Mace Windu that, in as many words. How does Anakin know? Palpatine told him! If Palpatine had shut his mouth, the Jedi were uneasy, but hardly ready to revolt.

Mace was on his way to force him to stand down from office when he told him this though, he was also going with the same number of the Jedi Council so use of force was still intended before and after they knew he was the Sith Lord.

[Purple]

The emperor had to take the jedi out of the picture permanently if he was ever going to win. Even if there might have been a way for them to somehow go along with his empire going down this path would mean that he has to spend the rest of his life scheming to make sure they don't uncover him and manipulating things. Sooner or later he would have slipped up. And even if not the whole thing would just bee too tiring and not anyones idea of a happy ending.

[Darth Tanner]

Indeed according to the EU if not for the invasion of Corsucant the Jedi would have revealed the plot there and then and Palpatine would have been finished, given the end of the Clone Wars if the Jedi order was left even remotely in tact he would have had to have a constant stream of distractions to keep them from resuming their investigation.

[Terralthra]

I'm not saying the Jedi aren't an obstacle. I'm saying he went waaaaay out of his way to arrange a revenge genocide, when he could've just kept the war going longer. The war was killing the Jedi just fine, slowly but surely, and since he was in charge of both sides, it would have been easy to just not let one side win.

I have no idea what you mean by "the Jedi would have revealed the plot there and then." The Jedi didn't know the plot then. It is explicit in the movies that the Jedi do not suspect Palpatine of being in charge of both sides of the war, at any point, and of being a Sith lord only hours before they're wiped out. Who would've revealed the plot? How did they know?

I'm not sure why Windu thought it necessary to bring three other Jedi with him to inform a politician that the enemy general was defeated, but didn't think it necessary to bring any more when he found out that said politician was a powerful Sith lord. Seems kinda arrogant, but that is in character for the OR Jedi Order.

[Darth Tanner]

In the EU the Jedi investigations into why Dooku ordered a clone army and who this cowled guy is that gives orders to the Seps was coming to a point where Mace was literally a few doors away from Palpatines secret lair... only the massive invasion of Coruscant stopped that and left a small team who were subsequently murdered by Palpatine.

Keeping the war going artificially massively increases the chance the Jedi will discover the plot also the entire point of the war was to get Palpatine as Chancellor the emergency powers in the Senate where he has absolute power, he achieved that by the battle of Coruscant and was ready to make the final move dispensing with the pretence of civil government and the Jedi... keeping the war going does nothing but extend his enemies lives and the risk of failure at the hands of the Jedi.

I'm not sure why Windu thought it necessary to bring three other Jedi with him to inform a politician that the enemy general was defeated, but didn't think it necessary to bring any more when he found out that said politician was a powerful Sith lord.

That was the entire Jedi council on Coruscant, the idea was they knew full well when the told Palpatine Grevious was dead and the clone wars over that he would not give up his emergency powers. The only other option was to bring more normal Jedi, which against one man would be rather overkill considering their knowledge at that point. Indeed without Anakin Palpatine would have died. I always thought it was pretty poor scene where Palpatine just kills three Jedi masters in as many seconds - very poorly handled especailly when these same Jedi are in the EU/Clone Wars elite combatants that have gone up against Greivous and full armies of droids.

[Adam Reynolds]

Possible but we should remember that a lot of methods Palpatine used to take down the Republic won't work against the Rebellion, for example Palpatine cannot pretend to not be involved with the Empire so it's harder for him to insert an agent to the rebellions to play them.

Why could he not use an agent similar to Mara Jade? Eventually Luke might detect someone like her, but initially she could infiltrate somewhat successfully. Even if she had a past with the Empire she could claim to be defecting. There would be a problem with her being able to communicate in the way that his earlier apprentices could effortlessly, but she could still put herself in a position to damage their efforts. It would not allow a takeover in the same sense as Dooku with the CIS, but he could have still done things in this regard.

In any case, the events of ROTJ indicate that he was successful in this regard. The Bothan spynets in the end worked for him rather than the Alliance.

I also think that there's a certain blind spot in the Emperor's planning regarding military conflict. He was playing both sides in the CWs, so it didn't matter who was winning or losing, because he won either way. Separatists win? Still the boss.

That is likely overstating things. It always appeared to me that like the American Civil War, one side had the clear strategic advantage. Notice that in ROTS, Obi-Wan mentioned the outer rim sieges, in which the Republic was beating back the CIS. Their attack on Coruscant was a doomed strategic move that overextended their operations to an unsustainable level. The inevitable result was the military defeat that was in the process of occuring throughout ROTS. The actions of the CIS council in that film, that of running and hiding, fits with this issue. Despite their massive droid armies, Grievous warned them about the possibility of the armies of the Republic tracking them.

And politically, Palpatine would have had massive problems if the CIS won. He would have to politically take over the CIS from Dooku, which would in itself be difficult due to a likely rebellious apprentice. He would also have to deal with a galaxy horrified by their current oppressors. The Empire worked partially because the clone armies were seen as a liberating force early on, something that likely lasted a fair bit after they fully became the Empire.

He also focused on the Jedi to an (honestly) ridiculous extent. The only reason the Jedi end up suspecting that the Emperor is a Sith Lord is because Anakin tells Mace Windu that, in as many words. How does Anakin know? Palpatine told him! If Palpatine had shut his mouth, the Jedi were uneasy, but hardly ready to revolt. If Palpatine had slow-rolled his powers a bit more, the Jedi might have even had enough attrition to go along with the new regime anyway. He went to a lot of trouble to be able to wipe the order out on a moment's notice as an act of justice for an assassination attempt...he fomented? In other words, he didn't so much wipe out the Jedi as a step along the path to galactic power, he pursued galactic power in part to pursue a vendetta against the Jedi.

Those Jedi were on their way to remove him from power one way or another. Had they not known he was a Sith, they would likely not have kicked down the door with drawn lightsabers, but they would have still made a move. Palpatine's ploy to involved Anakin proved correct. Palpatine was unable to defeat Mace Windu in lightsaber combat, but Anakin was.

He was right to focus on the only group that could have any possible counter to his abilities.

Combine the vendetta against the Jedi with being used to being in control of both sides of a military conflict, and it's entirely possible he focused so hard on killing or turning The Last Jedi that he more or less assumed that he'd be able to win the military conflict whenever he pleased (just like he could end the CWs whenever he wanted).

It is not entirely true that he could end the Clone Wars whenever he wanted. While he could in pratical terms do this, politically he could not. If the CIS simply stopped fighting at an arbitrary point, it would feel forced to an extent. It would also not cause the people of the galaxy to have a sense of fear that he would later be able to prey on to develop things like a Death Star. Remember Anakin's comments in ROTS to Padme "You're starting to sound like a Seperatist." That sentiment is why it took the Rebel Alliance 20 years to become anything of a threat.

His general idea of forcing the Rebel Alliance into a direct confrontation was also not an unreasonable one. In general, insurgencies succeed by avoiding such conflicts as it puts them in a posiiton where they will inevitably be destroyed. By presenting himself and his new Death Star as a target at Endor, he was forcing their hand.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that Palpatine focused his foresight (and actions) based on what he perceived as the real threat: the Jedi remnant.

That wasn't a false conclusion. Luke was the only mortal threat to Palpatine. The Rebel Alliance might destroy the second Death Star and weaken the Empire politically, but it was somewhat unlikely that they would have been able to kill Palpatine had Luke not been present. On top of this, had the Emperor not died it was possible that the Empire could have still won at Endor.

Indeed according to the EU if not for the invasion of Corsucant the Jedi would have revealed the plot there and then and Palpatine would have been finished, given the end of the Clone Wars if the Jedi order was left even remotely in tact he would have had to have a constant stream of distractions to keep them from resuming their investigation.

And according to the same EU, Palpatine didn't die at Endor. Not that I liked this depiction, but going by Clone Wars the Jedi were clueless. Even though they knew that Tyranus was Dooku and created the Clone Army. Despite the fact they also knew that clones had control chips in their heads that caused them to attack Jedi. That element of the series was incredibly poorly written.

The films were more consistent with the LOE depiction, in which the Jedi seems highly suspicious of Palpatine. But that was a long way from being able to prove anything. And it doesn't indicate that the invasion did anything to cover up his movements.

I'm not saying the Jedi aren't an obstacle. I'm saying he went waaaaay out of his way to arrange a revenge genocide, when he could've just kept the war going longer. The war was killing the Jedi just fine, slowly but surely, and since he was in charge of both sides, it would have been easy to just not let one side win.

The war was killing Jedi slowly. Order 66 would kill all of them instantly. And despite the fact that he was in charge, the CIS was clearly losing at the time of ROTS. It couldn't go on much longer.

I have no idea what you mean by "the Jedi would have revealed the plot there and then." The Jedi didn't know the plot then. It is explicit in the movies that the Jedi do not suspect Palpatine of being in charge of both sides of the war, at any point, and of being a Sith lord only hours before they're wiped out. Who would've revealed the plot? How did they know?

He was referring to Labyrinth of Evil in which the Jedi manage to follow a trail from Nute Gunray's holochair from TPM, which has holonet codes that link to Sidious, back to Palpatine's lair on Coruscant where he and Dooku met at the end of AOTC. Mace Windu was leading a team into that building just before the CIS attacked Coruscant. In LOE that was a major reason for the invasion, it covered Palpatine's tracks. Though none of that is canon now.

In any case, the Jedi obviously suspected Palpatine of something, hence their orders to Anakin that he spy on him. They were ultimately surprised by his level of influence, but were not surprised that Palpatine was involved in some fashion. They didn't suspect that he could be the Sith Lord, but they did suspect him of being involved in general

I'm not sure why Windu thought it necessary to bring three other Jedi with him to inform a politician that the enemy general was defeated, but didn't think it necessary to bring any more when he found out that said politician was a powerful Sith lord. Seems kinda arrogant, but that is in character for the OR Jedi Order.

I believe they suspected that the final Sith Lord would appear in some fashion when they made their move. They knew the Sith were involved in some capacity, they just didn't fully suspect Palpatine. When they were informing Palpatine about Grievous being dead, they were going to remove him from office if he refused to step down.

That was the entire Jedi council on Coruscant, the idea was they knew full well when the told Palpatine Grevious was dead and the clone wars over that he would not give up his emergency powers. The only other option was to bring more normal Jedi, which against one man would be rather overkill considering their knowledge at that point. Indeed without Anakin Palpatine would have died. I always thought it was pretty poor scene where Palpatine just kills three Jedi masters in as many seconds - very poorly handled especailly when these same Jedi are in the EU/Clone Wars elite combatants that have gone up against Greivous and full armies of droids.

Grievous and armies of droids are no match for the Sith Master. It was likely that his presence in the Dark Side clouded their senses to the point that they were completely unable to see even as he was slicing them to pieces. Similar clouding stopped most Jedi from seeing Order 66 at all, even though all of them had faced larger numbers of droids in combat.

[Terralthra]

I also think that there's a certain blind spot in the Emperor's planning regarding military conflict. He was playing both sides in the CWs, so it didn't matter who was winning or losing, because he won either way. Separatists win? Still the boss.

That is likely overstating things. It always appeared to me that like the American Civil War, one side had the clear strategic advantage. Notice that in ROTS, Obi-Wan mentioned the outer rim sieges, in which the Republic was beating back the CIS. Their attack on Coruscant was a doomed strategic move that overextended their operations to an unsustainable level. The inevitable result was the military defeat that was in the process of occuring throughout ROTS. The actions of the CIS council in that film, that of running and hiding, fits with this issue. Despite their massive droid armies, Grievous warned them about the possibility of the armies of the Republic tracking them.

Yes, the CIS was losing the war, but we don't have any real information on why. Was Dooku making deliberately poor strategic decisions in order to serve Sidious' purposes? It's entirely possible.

And politically, Palpatine would have had massive problems if the CIS won. He would have to politically take over the CIS from Dooku, which would in itself be difficult due to a likely rebellious apprentice. He would also have to deal with a galaxy horrified by their current oppressors. The Empire worked partially because the clone armies were seen as a liberating force early on, something that likely lasted a fair bit after they fully became the Empire.

Politically, he can just leave Dooku in charge and have the CIS be just as oppressive as his Empire became.

He also focused on the Jedi to an (honestly) ridiculous extent. The only reason the Jedi end up suspecting that the Emperor is a Sith Lord is because Anakin tells Mace Windu that, in as many words. How does Anakin know? Palpatine told him! If Palpatine had shut his mouth, the Jedi were uneasy, but hardly ready to revolt. If Palpatine had slow-rolled his powers a bit more, the Jedi might have even had enough attrition to go along with the new regime anyway. He went to a lot of trouble to be able to wipe the order out on a moment's notice as an act of justice for an assassination attempt...he fomented? In other words, he didn't so much wipe out the Jedi as a step along the path to galactic power, he pursued galactic power in part to pursue a vendetta against the Jedi.

Those Jedi were on their way to remove him from power one way or another. Had they not known he was a Sith, they would likely not have kicked down the door with drawn lightsabers, but they would have still made a move. Palpatine's ploy to involved Anakin proved correct. Palpatine was unable to defeat Mace Windu in lightsaber combat, but Anakin was.

He was right to focus on the only group that could have any possible counter to his abilities.

It is debatable whether Palpatine was actually losing or pretending to lose in order to sway Anakin's loyalty. Remember that bringing on the assassination attempt was part of a deliberate plan to justify Order 66. He wanted them to attack him, so he could have a publicly viable reason to wipe them out. Even younglings, who he could have easily perverted to the dark side.

Combine the vendetta against the Jedi with being used to being in control of both sides of a military conflict, and it's entirely possible he focused so hard on killing or turning The Last Jedi that he more or less assumed that he'd be able to win the military conflict whenever he pleased (just like he could end the CWs whenever he wanted).

It is not entirely true that he could end the Clone Wars whenever he wanted. While he could in pratical terms do this, politically he could not. If the CIS simply stopped fighting at an arbitrary point, it would feel forced to an extent. It would also not cause the people of the galaxy to have a sense of fear that he would later be able to prey on to develop things like a Death Star. Remember Anakin's comments in ROTS to Padme "You're starting to sound like a Seperatist." That sentiment is why it took the Rebel Alliance 20 years to become anything of a threat.

Not sure I agree with that. It's an inference not really supported by evidence.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that Palpatine focused his foresight (and actions) based on what he perceived as the real threat: the Jedi remnant.

That wasn't a false conclusion. Luke was the only mortal threat to Palpatine. The Rebel Alliance might destroy the second Death Star and weaken the Empire politically, but it was somewhat unlikely that they would have been able to kill Palpatine had Luke not been present. On top of this, had the Emperor not died it was possible that the Empire could have still won at Endor.

How? The shield was down, the attack was commencing. The Death Star was going to get blown up, and Luke's influence on the battle on Endor or in space over Endor was nil.

I'm not saying the Jedi aren't an obstacle. I'm saying he went waaaaay out of his way to arrange a revenge genocide, when he could've just kept the war going longer. The war was killing the Jedi just fine, slowly but surely, and since he was in charge of both sides, it would have been easy to just not let one side win.

The war was killing Jedi slowly. Order 66 would kill all of them instantly. And despite the fact that he was in charge, the CIS was clearly losing at the time of ROTS. It couldn't go on much longer.

The CIS was clearly losing...but Palpatine was pulling the strings! He had created the army of the republic in the first place! He could have created LESS of an army, or given it less lead time, etc. The course of the war was up to him.