European refugee crisis thread

[ray245]

Convincing anyone who fears 'hordes of Muslims' coming into Europe that they could become secular Muslims is a pretty hard task. Not when everyone has been hearing more stories of Muslims failing to integrate into Europe because of salafist teachings.

This does beg the question of why Germany would have any more of an obligation to take in these refugees than China, India, or America.

Are not Turkey, Israel, and Jordan much closer?

Those places don't really have any real attraction to refugees. They are rather far off for refugees to run to, and places like China aren't known to take in any refugee, especially if they are Muslims.

[salm]

Arguing that we shoudn´t take anybody because other nations won´t take anybody is like saying I should be an asshole to Pete because Bob acts assholish towards Pete, too. That´s a really infantile way of thinking. Should we all gang up on the victim because a couple of bullies are being bullies?

As for the high crime areas an Paris. Firstly, unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately because that measn it´s not actually that bad) the crime gets blown out of proportion by the media. Secondly, If we´re dumb enough to enable another wave of ghettoization, then quite frankly, our society has earned a higher crime rate. Unfortunately the refugees will be the ones suffering the most from this crime rate. But I think the problem of ghettoization is clear and present so there is reason to be carefully optimistic.

[K. A. Pital]

As for the high crime areas an Paris. Firstly, unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately because that measn it´s not actually that bad) the crime gets blown out of proportion by the media. Secondly, If we´re dumb enough to enable another wave of ghettoization, then quite frankly, our society has earned a higher crime rate. Unfortunately the refugees will be the ones suffering the most from this crime rate. But I think the problem of ghettoization is clear and present so there is reason to be carefully optimistic.

Just a note (as I've been to said areas, even stayed there if anyone's interested) - Paris indeed has a ghetto suburb problem. Creating isolated "District 13" areas is not a good recipe for low crime. The outskirts are poorly policed, while the inner-city wealthy parts use other types of metro/suburban rail than the ones located on the "ghetto lines", creating a very easy-to-discern separation between the rich and poor neighborhoods. I would still think this is more of a class and opportunity problem than that of immigration. It just happens so that due to lower birth rates, mass immigration and racial privilege the class divide is turning into a race divide even iniside nations. But a poor white hood is not much different from Saint Denis, although the racial divide makes it more noticeable as people tend to concentrate on "others".

As to whether this problem can be solved... Unlikely under capitalism, I would say. Capitalism is based on privilege tiers and purchasing-power fuelled urbanization, so poor and rich naturally get separated by the system. As the market is free, poor gravitate to cheap rent places even if they offer a ghetto life of no opportunity and low security. Rich gravitate to closed compounds in rich hoods, where they contact mostly their peers and are not touching the ghetto in any way. Therefore being unconcerned by the ghetto problems which most working-class people experience as their neighborhoods go down the drain.

[salm]

As to whether this problem can be solved... Unlikely under capitalism, I would say. Capitalism is based on privilege tiers and purchasing-power fuelled urbanization, so poor and rich naturally get separated by the system. As the market is free, poor gravitate to cheap rent places even if they offer a ghetto life of no opportunity and low security. Rich gravitate to closed compounds in rich hoods, where they contact mostly their peers and are not touching the ghetto in any way. Therefore being unconcerned by the ghetto problems which most working-class people experience as their neighborhoods go down the drain.

I don´t know. The "Russlanddeutsche" (who were mainly from Kasachstan) that came by the millions in the 90s seem to have integrated quite decently. They are not 100% on par with other Germans financially but they are far from ghettoized.
There are some differences such as not being a visible minority and having the same religion so it was probably easier. On the other hand this was 25 years ago and the country should be more open to foreing cultures by now.

If you mean the existing Ghetto structures: They are probably very difficult to break up and it will take several more generations to do so.

[madd0ct0r]

As to whether this problem can be solved... Unlikely under capitalism, I would say. Capitalism is based on privilege tiers and purchasing-power fuelled urbanization, so poor and rich naturally get separated by the system. As the market is free, poor gravitate to cheap rent places even if they offer a ghetto life of no opportunity and low security. Rich gravitate to closed compounds in rich hoods, where they contact mostly their peers and are not touching the ghetto in any way. Therefore being unconcerned by the ghetto problems which most working-class people experience as their neighborhoods go down the drain.

I don´t know. The "Russlanddeutsche" (who were mainly from Kasachstan) that came by the millions in the 90s seem to have integrated quite decently. They are not 100% on par with other Germans financially but they are far from ghettoized.
There are some differences such as not being a visible minority and having the same religion so it was probably easier. On the other hand this was 25 years ago and the country should be more open to foreing cultures by now.

If you mean the existing Ghetto structures: They are probably very difficult to break up and it will take several more generations to do so.

Intergration is a tough thing to measure. In the UK, the african black minority has the highest rate of inter marriage with the white majority, but economically are the poorest group by a way. The indian minority consistently do extremely well and hold professional positions and are comfortably well off, but have the lowest rates of inter marriage.
Which group is more integrated? There isn't a good definition to measure it against, so be careful.

[salm]

Intergration is a tough thing to measure. In the UK, the african black minority has the highest rate of inter marriage with the white majority, but economically are the poorest group by a way. The indian minority consistently do extremely well and hold professional positions and are comfortably well off, but have the lowest rates of inter marriage.
Which group is more integrated? There isn't a good definition to measure it against, so be careful.

You´re right, it´s important acknowledge subcategories of integration such as financial or social integration.

[K. A. Pital]

I don´t know. The "Russlanddeutsche" (who were mainly from Kasachstan) that came by the millions in the 90s seem to have integrated quite decently. They are not 100% on par with other Germans financially but they are far from ghettoized. There are some differences such as not being a visible minority and having the same religion so it was probably easier. On the other hand this was 25 years ago and the country should be more open to foreing cultures by now. If you mean the existing Ghetto structures: They are probably very difficult to break up and it will take several more generations to do so.

Russian Germans were essentially Soviet citizens. This meant a very high quality technical education, which allowed them to fill the qualified engineer niche quite successfully; a lot of the Russian Germans (well, more like Soviet Germans) that I know work as engineers, programmers et cetera. This allowed them to quickly break out of the low-income trap. The discrimination against Russian Germans exists, but it mostly prevents them from advancing to higher income levels, as most already have middle income. This helps to prevent ghettoes, although some sections of the Russian German population that were not lucky to get the good education or find a decent job, do live in "social disctricts" which are only a tad better than the Arab, Turkish or Pakistan ghettoes.

Basically, I see Indians and Chinese and they occupy decent jobs straightaway, so they do not form a ghetto. If the Arab refugees will start getting decent jobs, they can and will also move out of the ghettoes or stop forming new ghettoes. But, this requires a fair share of good education. Due to the situation in the Middle East, it is hard to say whether this is so. I know that some Chinese and some Soviet tech education is held in Ok regard, but everything else means nothing. And it is rather hard for those who already come at the age of 25 to start another education cycle, considering they have families to feed.

[Channel72]

Yeah, in general, the Middle East has a serious "tech" problem. The best and the brightest usually leave, resulting in brain drain, so we have a lot of Arab countries where the technology sector is abysmal, and the economy is propped up mostly by oil revenue, or in the case of places like Egypt or Jordan, a combination of foreign aid and other traditional exports. This is why we have a situation where you see the oft-cited statistic of the abnormally small size of the Arab Internet, compared to the number of people who speak Arabic. (Arabic is the 6th most spoken language on Earth, yet less than something like ~0.0001% of websites are in Arabic ... compare this to the colossal size of the Chinese/Russian/Korean Internet...)

The Saudi government actually tried to address the problem by dumping billions into the tech sector*, and the UAE is even trying to sort of emulate the "startup-culture" in the USA by trying to create an "Arab Silicon Valley" in Dubai, but so far none of these efforts have paid off.

*(Note to Saudi beauracrats: first stop oppressing half your population, and secondly, programmers will never be able to get anything done when the mosques are constantly blaring and you have constant interruptions for state-mandated prayer...)

[K. A. Pital]

Doesn't mean refugees should not be taken, but it means a bit more effort to prevent them ending up in ghettoes is needed. Enlisting to get free education could be demanded as a condition to receiving prolonged benefits, which in turn may force people to attend schools and universities. Not the most beautiful solution, as there will be people who will not go and still expect to be taken care of, but it will make most people integrate by subjecting them to another 2-5 year education cycle (depending on where they are). This is always an opportunity to integrate and word has it that people with local education are much better integrated on the average.

I am not sure about what social support is offered to people who go full time for education. Unlike Russia, Germany does not offer remote education at every university (only the one in Hagen), so it will be a bit harder for the refugees to combine work and study. Germany could stop rolling back remote education programs and closing such faculties at major schools and unis, expecting refugees to enroll.

But this does conflict with the breadwinner concept in the refugee families, and many will simply go to work in street cleaning and low-level services (packing helpers, fast food, clothes shop assistants etc.) and, if lucky and physically fit, in construction. High incomes for refugees can only come with education. Their education will not be accepted and we cannot fool ourselves it will even if the state decrees that Damascus' universities are "equal" to European ones, as any capitalist will see that university name on the CV and he will not consider it equal no matter what the state has to say about it.

[salm]

I am not sure about what social support is offered to people who go full time for education. Unlike Russia, Germany does not offer remote education at every university (only the one in Hagen), so it will be a bit harder for the refugees to combine work and study. Germany could stop rolling back remote education programs and closing such faculties at major schools and unis, expecting refugees to enroll.

The Kiron University Berlin is starting this October with 1000 refugee students with so called MOOCS, that is Massive Open Online Courses.
Basically it´s an online university that let´s everybody who wants to take courses but isn´t allowed to hand out degrees. They co-operate with real universities, though, and if the students pass the exams after two years they are allowed to study at one of the co-operation partners and get real degrees.
We´ll see if that works out.

Here´s a link to an article about it:
Link

[cosmicalstorm]

Sweden is averaging 1000 asylum seekers per day now. With 100 days left until new years eve that means 100.000 will apply before the end of the year. The number may be even more with some reports of those avoiding registration at the border. It's very hard to find housing now, many might end up on the streets.

The last three days there have been 1,000 refugees a day to Sweden. There is a marked increase compared with the forecast of 3 000-4000 people a week that the Migration Board has projected will come in September and October, before the number is expected to decrease because of the season.

However, the Migration Board's Director General Anders Danielsson want to wait to speculate whether there is an increase that will endure.

- We need to take it slowly to draw conclusions after three days. We are very high at the moment, as I said, over 1000 people per day. Should this pace continue, we are talking about 7000 people a week, and when the course begins our resources run out and we have problems to solve the task, says Anders Danielsson to Studio One.

Meanwhile, says Anders Danielsson that preparedness must exist in order to be able to receive 7000 people a week, as many continue to come.

As for predictions for how many refugees who are likely to come emphasizes Anders Danielsson that it is complex and sometimes very sudden events that can decide, and that it is something that it is very difficult to predict with certainty.

- I can give an example, only for the understanding of the problems. There is a city in northwestern Syria's Idlib, with a few hundred thousand people. It has been the regime controlled area, and when rebel groups come in there fairly recently, leaving literally population the country and goes straight into Turkey, So is the situation and it is very difficult to predict what happens, says Anders Danielsson.

http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.as ... el=6257188

[madd0ct0r]

My company (arup) have started the disaster response protocol (last triggered for the Nepal earthquakes). In this case no fundraising, but it looks like we'll be offering our services for engineering and building design at zero profit.

I know some refugee ngo s are using this office for training at the weekend

[Broomstick]

This does beg the question of why Germany would have any more of an obligation to take in these refugees than China, India, or America.

There are some people who think Germany should still be atoning for its WWII actions/atrocities.

Are not Turkey, Israel, and Jordan much closer?

I thought I already posted this: Turkey has already taken in 2.1 million. Jordan 500,000. Lebanon 600,000. Kuwait 120,000. Iraq 240,000 (some of which have again become refugees thanks to gains by ISIS in Iraq).

Does it really need to be explained why these folks are unlikely to go to Israel? However, Israelis have been lending humanitarian aid to Turkey and Jordan and providing medical care for some of those injured in the Syrian civil war.

[Elheru Aran]

Mostly the reason Germany is taking in more refugees is because it can afford to (different thing from being *capable*, which is an open question right now) and it's got a reasonably strong/stable economy. Plus it's easier to reach than the US, which is a traditional destination of refugees-- no ocean to cross, just the Mediterranean or the Balkans. Given Hungary's current xenophobia, and Austria simply doesn't have the capacity, they have to either go further to France or Italy, or they can leave it at Germany. The rest of Eastern Europe is either consumed in strife (Ukrainian civil war) or doesn't have the economy to bear the load.

I have to say I don't really get why Hungary is being such dicks to the refugees right now, though. One would think it'd line up an immense amount of goodwill and positive PR for them if they played nice and welcomed people. Cost is an issue, I understand, but it comes off as pure racist/religious xenophobia...

[Grumman]

I have to say I don't really get why Hungary is being such dicks to the refugees right now, though. One would think it'd line up an immense amount of goodwill and positive PR for them if they played nice and welcomed people. Cost is an issue, I understand, but it comes off as pure racist/religious xenophobia...

What good is goodwill and positive PR, if it is so fleeting? Why should Hungary care what you think of them today if next week you're just going to find some new excuse to write them off as bigots?

[Alyrium Denryle]

I have to say I don't really get why Hungary is being such dicks to the refugees right now, though. One would think it'd line up an immense amount of goodwill and positive PR for them if they played nice and welcomed people. Cost is an issue, I understand, but it comes off as pure racist/religious xenophobia...

What good is goodwill and positive PR, if it is so fleeting? Why should Hungary care what you think of them today if next week you're just going to find some new excuse to write them off as bigots?

If they decide to be decent, why would we write them off as bigots?

[Batman]

So Hungary shouldn't bother to stop being bigots...because the moment they again act like bigots we again start treating them like bigots. That's as it should be. But feel free to provide evidence that Hungary would be treated as bigots even when they aren't.

[Thanas]

Meanwhile, Slovenia and Hungary continue to shut borders, whereas Croatia has announced it will no longer register refugees but just let them pass. But to where, if Slovenia and Hungary close their borders?

Germany has now openly threatened to force other EU members to accept quotas via a qualified majority vote. I can't see that ending well, especially not when the amount talked about - 120k - is not even enough to close the gap between the projected arrivals in Germany (800k) and the actual arrivals we'll be getting (1m+, no upper limit yet)

If this continues and Eastern and Western Europe continue to refuse to pull their weight we will have to stop taking refugees ourselves, and then we will have several million of starving people stuck in the Balkans. With no food and no shelter they will have to take both from the locals, who will defend themselves against that and the other ravages such banditry usually brings with it.

This is going to get very ugly.

[Edi]

It will, and I don't expect it to get any better when the time comes to decide on many other serious matters in the EU. Germany is the biggest net contributor to everything and if it's also left to shoulder everything by itself, I can very well envision a "fuck you, no money for the EU until others start pulling their weight" response. And that will be a shitstorm of epic proportions.

[Iroscato]

The need for a unilateral effort by the EU to sort this clusterfuck out is getting more and more desperate every second. If they can't come together and develop a response to this as a unified force, then what the hell does the letters EU even mean?

Sorry, bit drunk and more than a bit pissed off at this.

[cosmicalstorm]

Is Merkel schizophrenic?
Things are about to get very ugly in Greece and the Balkans.

The EU is coming apart..?

Do you ever post anything less than utter shit?

So my prediction from page 14 is coming true after all?

[madd0ct0r]

Well, there's a difference between a clusterfuck and a divorce.

This is much more about organisational capacity and logistics then politics. At worst you could say Merkel predicted this as a way of forcing organisation Skills on the EU before a bigger crisis

[Iroscato]

Is Merkel schizophrenic?
Things are about to get very ugly in Greece and the Balkans.

The EU is coming apart..?

Do you ever post anything less than utter shit?

So my prediction from page 14 is coming true after all?

The EU is very far from falling apart. They just need to get their shit together with this.

I must ask, what is the driving force behind your constant sky-is-falling attitude?

[amigocabal]

This does beg the question of why Germany would have any more of an obligation to take in these refugees than China, India, or America.

There are some people who think Germany should still be atoning for its WWII actions/atrocities.

Would not that particular rationale only apply to the admission of Jewish refugees?

[Broomstick]

Why?

It wasn't just Jews the Nazis killed - while famously 6 million Jews died in the holocaust an estimated 12 million total died in the camps... so ask yourself, who were the other 6 million?

Not to mention the whole starting WWII thing - it's not just about Jews, even if they've done a good job of beating the drum of the atrocities focused on them.

So... Germany apparently feels some obligation to act in an opposite manner as the Nazis - which I largely applaud, given how evil Nazis were/are. I don't think pushing Germany to be a martyr, giving until Germany is dragged down, will benefit the world as a whole in the long run.

Jews need less protecting these days - they've got the nation of Israel as a mostly-safe haven, and many parts of the world are more tolerant of them than in the past. On the other hand, we have a couple million refugees of other ethnicities who will be drinking water out of ditches, shitting wherever they can find a spot, and sleeping in fields tonight. They need help.