European refugee crisis thread

[Broomstick]

I get the feeling that "economic migrants" are a definite minority in this group, but everyone is hoping they are a larger portion than in reality in hopes of whittling down the problem.

I just don't see a good end to all this.

[Thanas]

10k new refugees arrived yesterdays in Austria alone. Meanwhile, the EU summit is making little process as especially Poland is resisting, so look for Germany to force it through with a qualified majority soon.

[salm]

Look, not that I particularly agree with the way the Eastern European countries are reacting, but there's a lot to be said about German outright stupidity. Merkel gets on her little soapbox and says 'everybody is welcome'* and then she is shocked, shocked I say when number of asylum seekers crossing into Europe explodes.

Don't know if you've been following the news, but they have been coming at a higher rate even before Merkel commented on it.

I have been following the news, I mentioned it in the Greek bailout thread (how numbers were exploding) before anyone (like the total hipster I am), the reaction post Merkel gaff (if you could even call it, as I said she didn't really say that, but the media/gossip ran with it) has exasperated it.

Lots of people (The Greens and The Left in the oposition) have been warning of this scenario for years now and suggested to create infra structure that for refugees. But our brilliant government decided to completely ignore the problem. Finally, finally they´ve been shaken out of their hibernation. It´s way too late but better now than in two years.

[Thanas]

UNHCR was no longer expecting a mandatory quota of relocation spaces allocated between EU countries, which it had hoped for, but urged EU leaders to back the 120,000 places as an emergency response, on top of 40,000 places for refugees who have arrived in Greece and Italy.

The new figure of 120,000 represents only 20 days of the daily average of 6,000 arrivals. Fleming said the UNHCR, which had called for an initial 200,000 places, expected the EU proposal would need to be expanded in the future.

[K. A. Pital]

10k new refugees arrived yesterdays in Austria alone. Meanwhile, the EU summit is making little process as especially Poland is resisting, so look for Germany to force it through with a qualified majority soon.

If Germany forces it in that fashion, expect Euroskeptics and fascist idiots to gain more and more votes until finally they force their countries out of the EU.

[Thanas]

Yeah I doubt any country will leave the EU for this, after all it is a major source of money for their governments.

[Purple]

10k new refugees arrived yesterdays in Austria alone. Meanwhile, the EU summit is making little process as especially Poland is resisting, so look for Germany to force it through with a qualified majority soon.

I am not really good with regard to understanding EU politics. Could you please explain how this is supposed to work?

[Thanas]

So before the treaty of Lisbon the EU requireD every state to approve every one of its policies. This made every piece of EU action so very sluggish and unpredictable. To put it even more bluntly, if 27 states agreed that bananas should be yellow then one state could veto it because it only sold green bananas, no matter the sense.

See here on how it works now. Generally, however, unanimity is still required for the most important areas (which this is not one of) and in practice people will seek it because it doesn't help when members are pissed off.

But now even more extreme options are being talked about. For example, guess what would happen to the budget of, say, Slovenia if Germany would say that it doesn't think paying for it would be a good thing. Or if Germany decides to treat its contribution to the EU budget is a bit too high. But, for reasons of not wanting to look bad this is hardly pulled. Except now that Germany has made a lot of noises about doing exactly that in the face of other EU states (especially eastern EU states) taking money and then doing shit to help Germany in return. The direct quote from the German delegate in Brussels was something like "Germany is wondering whether its EU budget contribution should not be considered opt-in", which was quite a blunt sledgehammer after Eastern European nations said that refugee sharing should be opt-in.

[K. A. Pital]

Yeah I doubt any country will leave the EU for this, after all it is a major source of money for their governments.

No, I don't think they will leave because of it, I think it will strengthen the isolationist right up to the point where they can be propelled into power. And if this happens, smaller countries with governments like Hungary's king Orban may very well leave or try "renegotiation blackmail" like Mr. Pigfucker from Britain. Except that unlike Britain they will not have enough clout in the Union, so their bluff will be called and they would have no choice but to pull the trigger and leave the EU. They will frame this as a sovereignity debate, and that is how they will sell it to their voters. Long process, not just "exit because refugees".

[Thanas]

Oh yeah, I can see that threat, but I don't think the isolationist right is that powerful in that many countries (outside Hungary and pigfucking Britain, of course).

[LaCroix]

Orban would never make moves to leave the EU It's much to valuable both economically, and politically to him. He couldn't rant against anybody.

[jwl]

Qualitatively, I agree with Cameron's stance on this: take refugees directly from Middle Eastern countries rather than from Europeans ones. The reason being, it discourages people taking the journey to Europe, it allows you to take on more vulnerable people than the fit young men who are able to take the journey to europe, and anyway what's the problem with them just staying in Greece, hungary, etc? I haven't heard anything about lawlessness or refugees being treated badly there.

Quantitatively, I don't know. I think we could probably take on some more, but I think I would need to look at more statistics and stuff before I decide on a figure.

[Thanas]

Qualitatively, I agree with Cameron's stance on this: take refugees directly from Middle Eastern countries rather than from Europeans ones. The reason being, it discourages people taking the journey to Europe, it allows you to take on more vulnerable people than the fit young men who are able to take the journey to europe, and anyway what's the problem with them just staying in Greece, hungary, etc? I haven't heard anything about lawlessness or refugees being treated badly there.

Neither Greece nor Hungary have the resources.

[jwl]

Qualitatively, I agree with Cameron's stance on this: take refugees directly from Middle Eastern countries rather than from Europeans ones. The reason being, it discourages people taking the journey to Europe, it allows you to take on more vulnerable people than the fit young men who are able to take the journey to europe, and anyway what's the problem with them just staying in Greece, hungary, etc? I haven't heard anything about lawlessness or refugees being treated badly there.

Neither Greece nor Hungary have the resources.

That's their problem, not ours. If the refugee situation gets bad enough in those countries that the conditions get as bad as Middle Eastern refugee cqmps, then it might be worth considering taking refugees off them. Until that happens, they can keep them.

[cosmicalstorm]

They hammered out an agreement for the 120k at the cost of a lot of bad-will. What will they do with the remaining million/year? (probably 2 million/year this time 2016)

[Thanas]

Qualitatively, I agree with Cameron's stance on this: take refugees directly from Middle Eastern countries rather than from Europeans ones. The reason being, it discourages people taking the journey to Europe, it allows you to take on more vulnerable people than the fit young men who are able to take the journey to europe, and anyway what's the problem with them just staying in Greece, hungary, etc? I haven't heard anything about lawlessness or refugees being treated badly there.

Neither Greece nor Hungary have the resources.

That's their problem, not ours. If the refugee situation gets bad enough in those countries that the conditions get as bad as Middle Eastern refugee cqmps, then it might be worth considering taking refugees off them. Until that happens, they can keep them.

It is already as bad as in Middle Eastern refugee camps. Greece can't even feed them.

[cosmicalstorm]

The agreement for 120k might be delayed several years in courts should some countries challenge them, according to one analyst on TV.

[LaCroix]

That's their problem, not ours. If the refugee situation gets bad enough in those countries that the conditions get as bad as Middle Eastern refugee cqmps, then it might be worth considering taking refugees off them. Until that happens, they can keep them.

You see, this attitude is why Hungary and Croatia are toying with the idea of closing the borders completely. Right now, everybody going to Germany or elsewhere is passing through their territory - should Germany decide at some point that they have enough and stop taking, they would suddenly find themselves in charge of all those.

[jwl]

Neither Greece nor Hungary have the resources.

That's their problem, not ours. If the refugee situation gets bad enough in those countries that the conditions get as bad as Middle Eastern refugee cqmps, then it might be worth considering taking refugees off them. Until that happens, they can keep them.

It is already as bad as in Middle Eastern refugee camps. Greece can't even feed them.

Resources for food, etc. are not the only problems that refugee camps in the middle east face. The other main one is lawlessness. This means a lot of rape and violence happens in the middle eastern camps, which to my knowledge does not happen in the European ones.

Besides, I said might, because of the other two issues I mentioned.

[jwl]

That's their problem, not ours. If the refugee situation gets bad enough in those countries that the conditions get as bad as Middle Eastern refugee cqmps, then it might be worth considering taking refugees off them. Until that happens, they can keep them.

You see, this attitude is why Hungary and Croatia are toying with the idea of closing the borders completely. Right now, everybody going to Germany or elsewhere is passing through their territory - should Germany decide at some point that they have enough and stop taking, they would suddenly find themselves in charge of all those.

So what? They can close their borders if they want to close their borders. If they are only keeping their borders open so refugees can go through them to Germany: well, under my (well, cameron's) suggestion they wouldn't have to bother with that because the refugees would be shipped straight over from the middle east without ever going through Hungary or Croatia.

[Thanas]

Resources for food, etc. are not the only problems that refugee camps in the middle east face. The other main one is lawlessness. This means a lot of rape and violence happens in the middle eastern camps, which to my knowledge does not happen in the European ones.

Your knowledge is lacking then, go read any of the guardian updates or videos. Heck, there was full on street fighting on Kos.

[Thanas]

The 120k resettlement plan was pushed through, with only Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania voting against it. Finally.

The agreement for 120k might be delayed several years in courts should some countries challenge them, according to one analyst on TV.

Bullshit. As this is well within the treaty rights, they would have to show unintended extraordinary harm to have any chance to even get an injunction. Thus, this will go forward.

Besides:

Of the 120,000 to be divided between the remaining EU states, the nine countries of central and eastern Europe are being asked to take only around 10,000, while Germany and France between them will take double that number. But the Slovak prime minister, Robert Fico, nevertheless said the vote was unprecedented in EU history and vowed to defy it. “As long as I am prime minister, mandatory quotas will not be implemented on Slovak territory,” Fico told the parliament’s EU affairs committee.

Oh noes, 10k refugees. How will they ever deal with such a massive number?

[Purple]

Isn't 120K a very small number? I mean, we can easily expect several million people to come in the next few years. And if this, essentially a drop in the proverbial bucket, was so hard to push through that does not really bode well.

[Broomstick]

Isn't 120K a very small number?

In this context, yes.

[Netko]

That's their problem, not ours. If the refugee situation gets bad enough in those countries that the conditions get as bad as Middle Eastern refugee cqmps, then it might be worth considering taking refugees off them. Until that happens, they can keep them.

You see, this attitude is why Hungary and Croatia are toying with the idea of closing the borders completely. Right now, everybody going to Germany or elsewhere is passing through their territory - should Germany decide at some point that they have enough and stop taking, they would suddenly find themselves in charge of all those.

For Croatia it's a very difficult balancing act. The reason for the current partial closed borders is to maintain order in the refugee columns i.e. they are always monitored by police, transferred in chartered buses and trains and so on, unlike in, for example, Serbia where they are allowed more to roam free but also be exploited by locals (infamous 500€ 5km taxi rides). Also importantly, it allows Croatia to encamp the refugees in economically unproductive areas (not near industrially important north-west or the touristically important coast) and quickly transfer them through the economically important ones.

A full closure would not be tenable as it would only redirect the refugee flow to Bosnia, which would destabilize enormously that poor, already quite politically unstable, country and would lead to refugees coming into Croatia smack dab into the main tourist areas, while also hitting a much broader border (several times larger then the Croatian-Serbian border) hence having much less control.