US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

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Dominus Atheos
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US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Dominus Atheos »

As you may have heard, the US government is probably going to have another shutdown at the beginning of October:
Time to Start the Countdown on Yet Another Government Shutdown

Congress has begun to take steps to avoid another government shutdown, but it looks like Capitol Hill lawmakers are going to use every second they have before next week’s deadline.

On Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) filed a motion to advance funding that would keep the federal government open until December 11 and redirect money from Planned Parenthood to community health centers.

Related: As Government Shutdown Looms, Federal Workers Prepare for Furloughs

The policy rider is meant to appease conservatives like Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), a 2016 presidential candidate, who are outraged after a series of undercover videos showed Planned Parenthood officials discussing the sale body parts and tissue from aborted fetuses.

A vote on the spending bill is slated for Thursday, the same day Pope Francis addresses a joint meeting of Congress. In a bit of Kabuki, Democrats are expected to filibuster the legislation, so McConnell can then introduce a “clean” short-term funding measure.

The GOP leader’s commitment to going through the motions will burn valuable time off the clock.

Congress must pass a spending bill by October 1 to avoid a shutdown. The House is not even in session until after Francis speaks, and any decisions about funding are expected to wait until GOP members meet Friday morning.

Related: Another Government Shutdown? Washington Prepares for a Nervous Breakdown

Question marks surround what course of action the lower chamber might take. A sizeable bloc of social conservatives has announced that they won’t vote for any spending measure that includes money for Planned Parenthood. The group is watching GOP leadership carefully and signaled that if they are being set up for nothing more than a “show vote,” House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) might face a major revolt.

Even though McConnell started getting the gears in motion, Cruz and others could throw a procedural monkey wrench in the works to slow things down and bring Washington even closer to the brink of a shutdown.

If events in the House and Senate go off the rails, the scene next Wednesday could be reminiscent of December 2010 when President Obama signed a three-day stopgap measure that averted a shutdown by mere hours and gave lawmakers more time to hammer out a final, catchall bill.

Some GOP lawmakers are tired of machinations dominating the funding fight.

In a fiery floor speech on Tuesday, Sen. Kelly Ayotte (NH) skewered her fellow Republicans for risking a shutdown just to make a point about Planned Parenthood.

Related: Boehner May Have Found an Escape Hatch on Budget Standoff

“I’m tired of the people on my side of the aisle who have been pushing this strategy, even though they know they don't have the votes to pass it in the United States Senate, and they certainly don’t have the votes to override a presidential veto,” said Ayotte, who is up for reelection next year and a top Democratic target.

Last week she fired off a strongly worded letter to Cruz asking him to illuminate his “strategy for success” if the government shuttered. Ayotte says she has not received a reply from the presidential hopeful.

On Wednesday, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and ten other freshmen lawmakers sent a letter of their own to the House Republican conference urging them to “avoid another unnecessary and harmful government shutdown.”
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/09/2 ... t-Shutdown

I figure having one thread from the get-go is probably a good idea, but the article I originally wanted to post is this one:
USDA Does Not Have The Cash To Keep Food Stamps Running If The Government Shuts Down

Tens of millions of vulnerable Americans would lose their food stamps benefits if Republicans bent on defunding Planned Parenthood force the second government shutdown of the Obama era next week, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) warned on Tuesday.

Unlike the 2013 shutdown when cash reserves allowed Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits to be disbursed as normal, “USDA will not have the funding necessary for SNAP benefits in October and will be forced to stop providing benefits within the first several days of October,” a spokeswoman told the Associated Press. The agency notified state SNAP administrators on Friday that they should not begin the process of doling out October’s food stamps dollars this week as they normally would.

Without a deal, funding for normal government operations will run out at the end of September. In response to the news that a shutdown would cut off food stamps to as many as 45 million people, Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-KS) issued a statement saying the way to avoid a shutdown is for Democrats to get on board with cutting off federal funding for women’s healthcare. “The best way to ensure SNAP recipients receive needed support is to vote for the [continuing resolution],” Roberts told the Huffington Post. “I’m prepared to do so, and if members are worried about SNAP funding, they should too.”

The funding measure Roberts referenced would zero out federal funds to Planned Parenthood, the national women’s health organization that’s been smeared by pro-life activists as improperly profiting off the sale of aborted fetal tissue. Many of Roberts’ House colleagues have pledged to shut down the government if the group doesn’t have its funding cut off. State lawmakers in some parts of the country have already moved to restrict the group’s ability to provide a wide range of health services to low-income women who depend on Planned Parenthood clinics. In a quarter of all the counties where the group has a presence, the clinics are the only source of affordable contraceptive services for women of little means.

The 2013 government shutdown caused disruptions in a variety of federal services including the job training programs that unemployed people rely on to fulfill the eligibility requirements of SNAP. But the money for food itself was able to continue flowing because the USDA had sufficient cash in reserve to put the appropriate funds on peoples’ cards. That isn’t the case this time, lawmakers briefed by the agency say.

Cutting off SNAP would mean shooting the U.S. economy in the foot. The benefits more than pay for themselves, generating close to two dollars of economic activity for every dollar of benefits doled out by the USDA. Plugging up the flow of money from the federal government to low-income families to the grocery stores where they shop would have ripple effects on businesses and on tax revenue for public coffers.

The timing of the possible shutdown would exacerbate that natural chain of harmful knock-on effects. Most SNAP beneficiaries have already spent down their full monthly benefit by about midway through any given month. That cycle puts a crunch on grocery stores as well, distorting the hours they can sensibly schedule workers to be in the store and shifting how they stock their shelves. The USDA’s early warning about SNAP being cut off may have some political ramifications in the Congressional tussle over government funding, but it also serves as a more practical heads-up to the economic ecosystem surrounding the food stamps program.
http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2015/0 ... amps-usda/

I know that several SDN members are on food stamps, so if you are one of them, get ready. Try going to food pantries now, because they are going to be cleaned out by October 2nd.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Ahriman238 »

It's not going to happen. The GOP is praying that people will forget the 2013 shutdown and their part in it for the election, and there seriously isn't the support for it. Not in Congress, and not with the base.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Esquire »

Fingers crossed, anyway. But in an age where Donald Trump is at the head of the polls, I'm not going to bet on common sense carrying the day.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Napoleon the Clown »

Do not underestimate the insanity of the Tea Party. There are those among them that would gladly cause another shut down.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Zwinmar »

Knee jerk reaction: Seems like cutting off food stamps is something they would gladly do anyways, have to stop communism after all (/sic)
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Simon_Jester »

Ahriman238 wrote:It's not going to happen. The GOP is praying that people will forget the 2013 shutdown and their part in it for the election, and there seriously isn't the support for it. Not in Congress, and not with the base.
A large fraction of the GOP base and political leadership seems to still be in this mindset that if they just double down (and quadruple down, and octuple down) on the fanatical "if I can't run this country NO ONE CAN" attitude, eventually they'll get their way.

There are certainly enough Republicans who know better that IF they have a collective moment of clarity and recognize that loyalty to idiots in their own party is less important than, well... patriotism... Then things will work out. But so long as the sane portion of the party continues with its "no enemies to the right" stance, there is still a frightening amount of room for trouble. And it's been taking a "no enemies to the right" stance at least since the end of the Bush administration.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Iroscato »

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results each time. At this point, I think there is little debate that a large part of that festering cackhole known as the GOP is fucking insane.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Purple »

Random question time. If Trump was to speak out against this and than the GOP shuts it down anyway how would this effect his ratings?
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by dragon »

Really sucks while as a federal employee I'll enjoy the extra time off, it's an unpaid leave. While not a big deal for me as I don't live paycheck to paycheck like so many Americans I know a lot of people here that do.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Borgholio »

Boehner is trying to avoid a government shutdown since he seems to be smart enough to remember what happened last time. The Tea Party is reportedly trying to have him ousted as Speaker so they can get someone in place who will support a shutdown. So they do seem hell bent on shutting things down and once again trying to blame Democrats for it. All the while, House Democrats are backing Boehner and trying to keep things running. So if the government does shut down this time, you can pretty much kiss the chance of winning a GOP presidential election goodbye.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Broomstick »

Dominus Atheos wrote:I know that several SDN members are on food stamps, so if you are one of them, get ready. Try going to food pantries now, because they are going to be cleaned out by October 2nd.
Up until this month I was one of those (the money I inherited from dad took me off the program) and I'm relieved that's no longer an issue for me. I do worry, though – since I sometimes cashier at the store I work at I'm more aware than average how many people use food stamps in my area. I'm also concerned about my co-workers who are on them.

My friend down the road who raises chickens and keeps me in fresh eggs may be getting a gift of a sack of potatoes in the near future.
Ahriman238 wrote:It's not going to happen. The GOP is praying that people will forget the 2013 shutdown and their part in it for the election, and there seriously isn't the support for it. Not in Congress, and not with the base.
I disagree. There are enough insane Tea Party types in Congress that this could happen.

If it weren't for the human suffering that would cause I'd say let them do it, and shoot themselves in the foot.
Zwinmar wrote:Knee jerk reaction: Seems like cutting off food stamps is something they would gladly do anyways, have to stop communism after all (/sic)
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Lord Revan »

As outside observer it seems to me that the most dangerous enemy the GOP has, is itself or more accurately the fanatical wing of the GOP is killing the party as a whole due to making sure that the majority of US citizens assosiate GOP with fanatics that are totally out of touch with modern USA.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Knife »

Yeah, the libertarian wing and the religious fanatical wings (sometimes overlap) made a bid and more or less took control over the party last decade.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

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Ahriman238 wrote:It's not going to happen. The GOP is praying that people will forget the 2013 shutdown and their part in it for the election, and there seriously isn't the support for it. Not in Congress, and not with the base.
You know what they say, those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Republicans who want to shut the down the federal government rather than provide $500 million in funding to Planned Parenthood insist that their party won't be punished for having the courage of its anti-abortion convictions.

They say the millions of Americans inconvenienced by the closing of national parks and delays of services (not to mentioned missed paychecks for federal workers) won't blame Republicans for refusing to pass a federal funding bill that contains money for the women's health care services provider. Instead, the theory goes, voters will blame the Democratic president, who plans to veto the bill if it doesn't include money for Planned Parenthood. (Bloomberg Philanthropies provides financial support for the group.)

“On the Planned Parenthood issue, the people who are threatening a shutdown is Barack Obama and his allies in the Senate. ... The Republicans are going to shut down the government? No, we're not. We are in support of funding the government fully, just not giving any more money to this one organization,” Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio, a Florida senator, said on Sean Hannity's radio show last week. “They're the ones shutting it down.”

But the very same senator made the very same argument to the very same host two years ago, before Republicans tested the theory by shutting down the government for 16 days in an effort to defund another bête noire.

“Well, the one who’s threatening to shut down the government is the president and his Democratic allies,” the Floridian told Hannity on Aug. 1, 2013, two months before Republicans shut down the government in an ultimately futile effort to cut funding for Obama's health care law. “What they're basically saying is unless the budget funds Obamacare, they won't support it. They're basically saying that unless we fund Obamacare they are willing to shut down the government.”

In the end, Republican lost the fight. Not just because they had to cave and pass a bill that continued funding for Obamacare, but because they took the political hit for it: 81 percent of Americans disapproved of the shutdown, and the public blamed Republicans by a 53 percent to 39 percent margin, according to a Washington Post/ABC poll taken at the time. Nine days into the shutdown, Gallup found that the GOP's approval rating had sunk to an all-time low. Democrats' approval dipped more modestly.

Rubio is not alone in embracing a strategy that didn't work so well last time around.

“If the Democrats want to shut down government over this, then it goes to Democrats,” said Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, another presidential contender, on Sept. 10 at a rally on Capitol Hill, according to a report in the Washington Examiner. “The Democrats want to shut down government, we should point the finger and say, 'If you want to shut down the government over spending money on harvesting organs from babies, so be it,' but we will take a stand.”

Two days before the 2013 shutdown, Paul was also trying to put the blame on the president. “The president is the one saying I will shut down government if you don't give me everything I want on Obamacare. That to me is the president being intransigent and being unwilling to compromise,” he said on Sept. 29, 2013, on CBS's Face The Nation.

Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio, a leader in the push to defund Planned Parenthood this month at risk of a shutdown, is also making the familiar argument—that Democrats will be blamed, see the light, and relent.

“I think we should stand firm and not fund Planned Parenthood, plain and simple. ... If Barack Obama and Harry Reid think it’s more important that, Planned Parenthood, after what we know about them, gets taxpayer money, they think that’s more important than funding our troops, that's a sad commentary on Obama and Reid,” Jordan told Politico last month, predicting that Democrats would shift their position after debate. He and more than 30 House Republicans have pledged not to vote for a bill that keeps funding the organization.

In 2013, Jordan told CNN that Democrats who refused to defund Obamacare would “find Jesus and do the right thing” if Republicans withheld funding for the federal government. “We've got 10 days to run this campaign.”

Shutdowns pose a unique messaging problem for Republicans, who fashion themselves as the anti-government party. In addition, political scientists note that Americans typically blame the party that controls Congress—and therefore the purse strings for the federal government—if money runs dry.

It's a point House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican who sometimes becomes visibly exasperated with some of the more doctrinaire members of his own caucus, has made himself. Three months after the government re-opened, the speaker of the House was asked by Jay Leno on the Tonight Show if Republicans were to blame for the shutdown. “Yep,” he responded, calling it “a very predictable disaster.”

The one difference between 2013 and 2015 is Republicans now control the Senate. But Democrats retain the power (and determination) to kill such a bill by filibuster, meaning Republicans still have no realistic path to success. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been arguing that the shutdown strategy is doomed to fail and will hurt the GOP.

As he was two years ago, the kingpin of the shutdown strategy is Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who is also running for president this year.

“I sincerely hope Senator Reid and President Obama do not choose to force a government shutdown simply to force Obamacare on the American people. That would be a mistake,” the freshman senator said during a marathon 21-hour Senate floor speech on Sept. 24, 2013, that launched his trademark hashtag, #MakeDCListen.

While the Republican Party's image may not have been helped by the 2013 shutdown, Cruz's political stock went up. Conservative members of his party—who have disproportionate influence in Iowa, where the first ballots of the presidential season will be cast in Feb. 1 caucuses—cast him as a hero and blamed Republican leaders for backing down. Now Cruz hopes to double down on that lesson.

“Republican leadership in both houses has begun this discussion by preemptively surrendering to Barack Obama and saying, 'We'll give in because Obama threatens a veto,'” Cruz said last week at the Republican presidential debate. “We need to stop surrendering and start standing for our principles.”
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Eternal_Freedom »

Two days before the 2013 shutdown, Paul was also trying to put the blame on the president. “The president is the one saying I will shut down government if you don't give me everything I want on Obamacare. That to me is the president being intransigent and being unwilling to compromise,” he said on Sept. 29, 2013, on CBS's Face The Nation.
Does this man have no sense of irony? Calling Obama intransigent and unwilling to compromise before, and now trying the same thing again?

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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

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Eternal_Freedom wrote:What the hell is wrong with you, US Congress?
Let's just say there's a reason Congress has a 14% approval rating, it was down in the single digits the last time they did a shutdown.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

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Eternal_Freedom wrote:What the hell is wrong with you, US Congress?
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Darmalus »

Eternal_Freedom wrote:What the hell is wrong with you, US Congress?
They are loyal to the locals who elected them but are perfectly willing to let the nation as a whole burn.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Borgholio »

I think the one thing that would make Congress function again is re-learning the ability to compromise. But that is far too mature for most of them to even consider at this point.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Ahriman238 »

The last shutdown was probably the greatest single blunder in US politics of the last decade and the backlash from it hurt the Republicans more than any number of manufactured scandals have tarred the Dems. Repeating that would probably cost them both the Presidency and their control of Congress by savaging their own base (red states, on average, depend on federal funds a hell of a lot more than blue states) right before an election year.

Are there members of the party that are exactly that short-sighted and self-destructively stupid? Certainly. But I don't think they control the party to quite the extent they need to push this through, not with the memory of the last shutdown so fresh in everyone's minds.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

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I disagree, I think the whackjobs do have that much control over the Republicans in Congress.

I guess we'll see who is right when October 1st comes around.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Simon_Jester »

If Boehner (sooo tempted to start spelling his name Böner) and/or McConnell have real brains, they will be making a contingency plan to either coerce the wacko wing to NOT crash the government, or to very very quickly end the shutdown by compromising with the Democrats and leaving the wackos swinging in the breeze.

Because at this point, I'm finding it hard to imagine any intelligent and patriotic person who looks at the current situation, looks at the far right of the GOP, and says anything other than 'let's ditch these idiots before they get us all killed.'

If the Republican Senate and House leaders do not have such a plan in place, and/or do not have the will to implement it... there are two possibilities. They are either pure brick stupid... or they secretly agree with the wackos in their own party and don't want to admit it.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Lord Revan »

Simon_Jester wrote:If Boehner (sooo tempted to start spelling his name Böner) and/or McConnell have real brains, they will be making a contingency plan to either coerce the wacko wing to NOT crash the government, or to very very quickly end the shutdown by compromising with the Democrats and leaving the wackos swinging in the breeze.

Because at this point, I'm finding it hard to imagine any intelligent and patriotic person who looks at the current situation, looks at the far right of the GOP, and says anything other than 'let's ditch these idiots before they get us all killed.'

If the Republican Senate and House leaders do not have such a plan in place, and/or do not have the will to implement it... there are two possibilities. They are either pure brick stupid... or they secretly agree with the wackos in their own party and don't want to admit it.
Admitbly I'm an outside observer but it seems to me that Moderate wing of GOP has become so dependent on the extremist wing for votes that wackos have disportionate power within the party.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by RogueIce »

On the one hand, a shutdown is hardly a good thing.

On the other, this would be about the same timing relative to the 2016 election as the 2013 shutdown was to the 2014 mid-terms, and the Republicans did pretty well for themselves there.

Of course a Presidential election year with no incumbent is entirely different from mid-terms, but still. They may actually think it'll work out for them in the end as it arguably may have done in 2013/2014. Or at least, it didn't seem to hurt the GOP by the time the elections rolled around.
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Re: US Government Shutdown 2015 thread

Post by Pelranius »

dragon wrote:Really sucks while as a federal employee I'll enjoy the extra time off, it's an unpaid leave. While not a big deal for me as I don't live paycheck to paycheck like so many Americans I know a lot of people here that do.
I think that Congress would probably vote to pay that "shutdown leave", like they did last time.

I'm a contractor now, but since our contract was already paid through on a multiyear basis (or at least into FY 2016), I still have to show up for work come Oct. 1 no matter what (whether or not we get anything done is another matter).
Turns out that a five way cross over between It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, the Ali G Show, Fargo, Idiocracy and Veep is a lot less funny when you're actually living in it.
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