Canada Election 2015

[Koolaidkirby]

A humorous last minute un-endorsement before the polls open

[Tribble]

don't think a minority Conservative government can happen. Even if he ends up winning a few more seats than the Liberals, he isn't going to have the confidence of the House and the Liberals and NDP will come together to unseat him from power. Best guess is a Liberal minority government with a negotiated NDP supply agreement.

At the end of the day, the top political priority of the bulk of the electorate is to remove Harper from power and they'd punish either of the Liberals or NDP if they don't do that if they have the chance.

That may not matter though, because the strategic vote is clearly lining up behind the Liberal party in the past two weeks which gives the Grits a very good chance of taking the popular vote and a pretty good chance of the most seats. I'd be very surprised if we don't see Prime Minister Trudeau the Younger in the near future.

Problem is that by tradition the party with the most seats gets the first chance to form a government. Should the Conservatives win a minority they'll get a crack at it. If the NDP and Liberals seriously threaten a coalition government the Conservatives will probably do what they did last time and prorogue parliament in an attempt to scuttle the coalition. Or at the very least buy them some time while they look for a new leader. Pariliament is only required to meet once per year so they could kick the ball all the way over to next June.

[The Romulan Republic]

How wonderfully undemocratic.

Mind you, I doubt a year would be long enough for hostility to the Conservatives to significantly decrease, especially after a stunt like that.

[Jub]

I did my part to help avoid that fate. My outlook was strongly aligned with any of the Greens, Liberals, or NDP. That makes me lucky enough that I was able to strategically vote against the Cons without needing to feel the least bit bad about it.

[Tribble]

How wonderfully undemocratic.

Mind you, I doubt a year would be long enough for hostility to the Conservatives to significantly decrease, especially after a stunt like that.

Unfortunately, it could potentially be even worse than that if we have another king-byng affair . Let's hope things don't get that drastic.

[Coop D'etat]

don't think a minority Conservative government can happen. Even if he ends up winning a few more seats than the Liberals, he isn't going to have the confidence of the House and the Liberals and NDP will come together to unseat him from power. Best guess is a Liberal minority government with a negotiated NDP supply agreement.

At the end of the day, the top political priority of the bulk of the electorate is to remove Harper from power and they'd punish either of the Liberals or NDP if they don't do that if they have the chance.

That may not matter though, because the strategic vote is clearly lining up behind the Liberal party in the past two weeks which gives the Grits a very good chance of taking the popular vote and a pretty good chance of the most seats. I'd be very surprised if we don't see Prime Minister Trudeau the Younger in the near future.

Problem is that by tradition the party with the most seats gets the first chance to form a government. Should the Conservatives win a minority they'll get a crack at it. If the NDP and Liberals seriously threaten a coalition government the Conservatives will probably do what they did last time and prorogue parliament in an attempt to scuttle the coalition. Or at the very least buy them some time while they look for a new leader. Pariliament is only required to meet once per year so they could kick the ball all the way over to next June.

That's not actually a real tradition. The rule is that the former prime minister has the right to seek the confidence of the house. Which he is more or less obligated to do after a new election because he has to make a speach from the throne. If a group of other parties that together hold a majority of the seats let the Govenor-General know that they hold the confidence of the house after an election the G-G is pretty much obligated to let them have their chance at forming a government.

The last prorogueing was a enough of a legal gray area for Harper to get away with it. If he tries to pull the stunt after an election we're getting into territory where the G-G is going to feel obligated to remove him from office if he's been informed that another person has the confidence of the house.

[Wild Zontargs]

Another trick that's theoretically possible: wait out the opposition.

It is a constitutional requirement that the House of Commons meets at least once a year.

"Once a year?!"

That means the House has to meet by June 2016. When Justin's father, Pierre Trudeau, resigned as prime minister after the 1979 election, Joe Clark waited five months before meeting the House.

"Can Harper really go that long?"

The government is in caretaker mode during an election campaign, so it is not in a position to take major policy initiatives. That includes signing trade agreements. It is expected the House will have to meet by January to begin the process of approving a new budget.

"Why would Harper not just quit and allow the inevitable to happen?"

He might see it in his interest to foment bickering amongst his two rivals with the hope one of the two might not defeat him in the House. MPs can abstain or they can be absent. That's a long-shot, hail Mary, desperation tactic, but this prime minister has never seemed like someone willing to relinquish power.

Probably won't happen, but it's possible that he could try to wait out one of the other parties and hope they'll cave and support him. Sounds like political suicide to me, though, especially since he wants to get the Trans-Pacific Partnership signed.

[The Romulan Republic]

I'm not too worried about Harper pulling off a win in any way. The polls I've been seeing lately tend to give the Liberals a nice solid lead and momentum.

My riding is basically a toss-up between the Greens and NDP though, I think.

[Jub]

Here's a tracker showing the wins and projected wins for the election:

[Coop D'etat]

Liberals were expected to do well in Atlantic Canada but are coming in even stronger than projections. About 65% of the vote so far and leading in 30 out of 32 ridings. They've gone from doing well to practically running the table.

[The Romulan Republic]

Surprised for two reasons. One, I thought we wouldn't be getting results until later. Two, that's a bloody landslide (yeah, I know its just the Atlantic provinces, but still).

[Coop D'etat]

They're leading in all 32 ridings now. Its possible that the late campaign Liberal swing is even bigger than was thought.

[Jub]

I for one am pleasantly but not entirely surprised by this. The Cons were basically counting on votes from their base and incumbent status to win this for them. Their best hope was that everybody stayed home, but this elections groundswell of pressure to get up and vote pretty much made that a non-starter.

[The Romulan Republic]

They're leading in all 32 ridings now. Its possible that the late campaign Liberal swing is even bigger than was thought.

Where are you getting your numbers from? I've got CBC on right now and they had 31 for the Liberals and 1 for the Conservatives up (in this context, I presume that's probably referring to ridings).

[Jub]

I'm using Global's tracker that I linked to up above. It's been wavering between a 32-0-0 split and a 31-1-0 split for the past few minutes.

[Coop D'etat]

They're leading in all 32 ridings now. Its possible that the late campaign Liberal swing is even bigger than was thought.

Where are you getting your numbers from? I've got CBC on right now and they had 31 for the Liberals and 1 for the Conservatives up (in this context, I presume that's probably referring to ridings).

CBC as well, TOBIQUE-MACTAQUAC has swung back and forth a couple times tonight. Currently a 12 vote Liberal lead in a race that will probably go down to the wire.

[The Romulan Republic]

I'm using Global's tracker that I linked to up above. It's been wavering between a 32-0-0 split and a 31-1-0 split for the past few minutes.

Not even counting the Greens or anyone else?

Oh well, just said 32. Clean sweep of Nova Scotia by the looks of it.

[Jub]

I'm using Global's tracker that I linked to up above. It's been wavering between a 32-0-0 split and a 31-1-0 split for the past few minutes.

Not even counting the Greens or anyone else?

Oh well, just said 32. Clean sweep of Nova Scotia by the looks of it.

None of them have more than 3% of the vote thus far and aren't a threat to sneak a riding so I'm not including them just yet.

[The Romulan Republic]

Back to 31/1 again...

This is going to go on for a while isn't it?

[Tribble]

Ya, it's gonna go on for awhile for the full results, polling stations over here haven't closed yet. Quite a few people out voting considering there is a Toronto Blue Jays game tonight lol

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, I was referring to that particular damn riding that keeps bouncing back and forth.

But I hear we'll be shortly getting results from most of the remaining provinces.

[Jub]

BC should be the last place with open polls and it's under and hour until they close, so we should get a bigger picture pretty shortly.

[Jub]

Atlantic Canada looks like a clean sweep for the Liberals, even Tobique-Mactaquac has stabilized in their favour.

[The Romulan Republic]

More results coming in lately on CBC. Conservatives and NDP have started to show up in the lead more, but the Liberal advantage was still overwhelming last time I looked.

Edit: CBC predicting Liberal win.

[Jub]

Global is calling it for the Liberals with the current polling numbers.