What If: Thrawn Survives Bilbringi?

[RogueIce]

So, here's the scenario. As we all know, at the climax of The Last Command, Grand Admiral Thrawn is killed by his formerly loyal Noghri bodyguard, Rukh. But let's change things a little. When Pellaeon discovers Mount Tantiss is being attacked by Noghri, Rukh is out of earshot and thus does not act at the crucial moment. Thrawn, deducing from the Noghri Conclave's odd behavior and that a group of Noghri are now aiding the Rebels that the jig is up, quietly orders a contingent of stormtroopers to stun Rukh and lock him in the brig.

However, events at Mount Tantiss do not otherwise deviate. Thus, C'boath dies and the mountain still blows up, taking the cloning facility and whatever else was in there with it. The Imperial garrison still falls. Meanwhile, at the space battle, things were not going well for the Empire. However, Thrawn is still around to lead efforts. For the purposes of this scenario, it results in kind of a draw. That is: the smugglers make it out with the CGT, but the Empire stands its ground and does not withdraw. Overall, neither side scores a crucial victory: the Rebel fleet escapes the trap, battered but not broken (major characters like Ackbar and Rogue Squadron survive). The Empire maintains control of the shipyards, although they're damaged and like the Rebels, their fleet is also hurt but not destroyed (again, all major characters survive). The Empire does not achieve its decisive victory, and while the Rebellion can lift the Siege of Coruscant with the CGT they're still facing Thrawn and a formidable Imperial fleet. However, his primary (only?) cloning center was destroyed, along with losing whatever else was in the Emperor's Storehouse, so really Mount Tantiss is the bigger loss.

So what happens? Does he immediately dispatch forces to attempt to retake Mount Tantiss, and salvage what he can? How does the war against the New Republic proceed from here? Discuss!

Caveats:

• Because it's all Legends and I can pick and choose, Dark Empire does not exist. In any form. No clone Emperor, no Galaxy Guns, no Eclipse, none of that crap. It never existed. Period. So no Palpatine secretly plotting Thrawn's downfall or whatever that stupid DESB retcon was.
• No superweapons in general. Daala and the Maw Installation are never discovered by the outside galaxy and Daala herself never decides to leave thanks to her brain injury, no matter what. Every last scientist and soldier in there will die of old age, and all the technology will eventually fall into one of the surrounding black holes. Lemelisk never gets out to build that half-assed Darksaber for the Hutts. And let's also pretend nobody ever figures out the whole Sunbuster aspect of Centerpoint Station. And so on and so forth for any other EU superweapons lurking out there. They either A) never existed (if their discovery was inevitable) or B) nobody ever finds them, if they were of the long-lost technology variety.
• The rest of the EU, more or less, still exists. However, the Butterfly Effect is in full force here with the Thrawn Campaigns still ongoing. So while the Yevetha and their ilk might still be out there in the galaxy, there's no telling if, when or how they'll wind up coming onto the galactic stage. It's all changed.
• I'm going to make explicit that, amongst the Unknown Regions horrors Thrawn is aware of, the impending Yuuzhan Vong invasion is among them. So, assuming he wins (no guarantee of course!) he'll be preparing for them.
• If he does fall in battle, his Hand of Thrawn plot is never discovered, and the clone is never killed. So he can continue to reset the clock...but ten years after he dies (if he dies) his clone comes back, catches up on galactic affairs in his little cloning chamber/information center, and then goes upstairs to say hello to Parck, Fel and all the rest of the Empire of the Hand. Because I'm a Thrawn fanboy like that.

[Simon_Jester]

While I haven't read the story, the idea of something like Darksaber actually appeals to me- it's not "this is a super-duper-superweapon better than what came before!" It's "this is the consequence of WMD technology proliferating, you get random shady idiots trying with limited success to duplicate past superweapons and ultimately getting their asses kicked relatively easily."

[RogueIce]

While I haven't read the story, the idea of something like Darksaber actually appeals to me- it's not "this is a super-duper-superweapon better than what came before!" It's "this is the consequence of WMD technology proliferating, you get random shady idiots trying with limited success to duplicate past superweapons and ultimately getting their asses kicked relatively easily."

The idea wasn't bad per se, but the execution was stupid. Long story short: the Hutts were cheapos and the thing never worked, it gets crushed by a couple asteroids with no real input from any of the heroes.

While such an amusing end has its place, that it was the plot the book was named after makes it rather lackluster. Well that and KJA in general.

But anyway I'm mainly avoiding superweapons because I wasn't a huge fan of the purported "superweapon of the week" from the Bantam EU. And they're not really Thrawn's style in any event, and this thread is mostly about him prosecuting the war beyond what he originally was able to.

[Thanas]

I don't see the NR stopping Thrawn from making major strategic gains. I suspect it will take him several years to accomplish a complete defeat of them, but assuming Thrawn has the same skills as portrayed in the trilogy, I don't think they can stop him.

The question is more if he has the resources to hold and garrison that new territory. Much of that will come down to what the major industrial worlds decide.

[The Romulan Republic]

The Battle of Bilbrigi was already looking bad for Thrawn when he was assassinated. It is entirely possible that he will be forced to withdraw, suffering a major loss of infrastructure and moral.

Edit: And of course, that is in addition to the kick in the teeth that losing the Tantis facility would be.

[Thanas]

That one Rogue Squadron book that dealt with the battle of Bilbringi showed that the rebels were far from a certain victory, so I don't think it will be that much of a rebel victory.

[The Romulan Republic]

Oh, not a certain victory, no. The outcome of the battle was still in question, as I recall, shortly before Thrawn bought it. Or so Thrawn and Pellaeon believed, anyway.

No way to say really how decisive it will be. But Thrawn is probably skilled enough to pull at least some of his forces out intact if he recognizes that he's beaten.

[Adam Reynolds]

While I haven't read the story, the idea of something like Darksaber actually appeals to me- it's not "this is a super-duper-superweapon better than what came before!" It's "this is the consequence of WMD technology proliferating, you get random shady idiots trying with limited success to duplicate past superweapons and ultimately getting their asses kicked relatively easily."

Agreed on this element at least being interesting. The other part of that storyline that was interesting was that of a power gap in the galaxy. Which to me was among the more interesting ideas of the old EU in that respect. What we were seeing was actually far less powerful than previous threats but without the finese of either the full Jedi or the raw strength of the Imperial military, small threats became large ones quite easily. A somewhat better version of that concept was also loosely explored in I, Jedi. I wonder if the new films will also follow on with this idea and go in a slightly different direction than the current ones. That would be an interesting way to make the threat serious without overshadowing the previous one. Though who knows if that is the way they will go.

Though as RougeIce pointed out, the execution was awful.

But anyway I'm mainly avoiding superweapons because I wasn't a huge fan of the purported "superweapon of the week" from the Bantam EU. And they're not really Thrawn's style in any event, and this thread is mostly about him prosecuting the war beyond what he originally was able to.

One odd upside of the Bantam era authors was that they were so poorly organized that you could safely ignore bad stories and enjoy good ones. At least for the most part. Only Allston and Stackpole really tried to fit their stories into an existing continuity. Zahn in particular ignored large swathes of it, especially Dark Empire.

I don't see the NR stopping Thrawn from making major strategic gains. I suspect it will take him several years to accomplish a complete defeat of them, but assuming Thrawn has the same skills as portrayed in the trilogy, I don't think they can stop him.

The question is more if he has the resources to hold and garrison that new territory. Much of that will come down to what the major industrial worlds decide.

I don't see how Thrawn could ever hold onto it in the long term, if the full Empire couldn't. That is also assuming that the heroes don't figure out some other clever solution to his machinations at some other point. While they cannot outsmart him in the direct sense, they often manage to pull off tactical victories enough to be a threat that won't go away. And without his clones, I especially doubt he would have the numbers to win in the long run.

[Thanas]

I don't see how Thrawn could ever hold onto it in the long term, if the full Empire couldn't. That is also assuming that the heroes don't figure out some other clever solution to his machinations at some other point. While they cannot outsmart him in the direct sense, they often manage to pull off tactical victories enough to be a threat that won't go away. And without his clones, I especially doubt he would have the numbers to win in the long run.

By the time Of Bilbringi Thrawn has generated enough crew that he can afford to shift clones to the equivalent of the Coast Guard. I believe that at that point he does not need the clones anymore, especially since they were a stopgap measure anyway.

[Adam Reynolds]

I don't see how Thrawn could ever hold onto it in the long term, if the full Empire couldn't. That is also assuming that the heroes don't figure out some other clever solution to his machinations at some other point. While they cannot outsmart him in the direct sense, they often manage to pull off tactical victories enough to be a threat that won't go away. And without his clones, I especially doubt he would have the numbers to win in the long run.

By the time Of Bilbringi Thrawn has generated enough crew that he can afford to shift clones to the equivalent of the Coast Guard. I believe that at that point he does not need the clones anymore, especially since they were a stopgap measure anyway.

I suppose that is true, it has been awhile since I read those. Anyway, I still doubt he would have enough power to police the galaxy if he won, given that the full Empire just barely pulled it off.

Though perhaps Thrawn would not be as harsh as the Emperor and allow systems to largely run their own affairs while he built up to prep for the Vong invasion. That would be an interesting concept. What would be really interesting is if he ended up working with the heroes eventually in an attempt to stop the Vong for good.

[RogueIce]

I don't see the NR stopping Thrawn from making major strategic gains. I suspect it will take him several years to accomplish a complete defeat of them, but assuming Thrawn has the same skills as portrayed in the trilogy, I don't think they can stop him.

The question is more if he has the resources to hold and garrison that new territory. Much of that will come down to what the major industrial worlds decide.

Thrawn's Confederation

From what I can tell, he has basically whatever consisted of the Empire proper at that point, with some support from other factions like the Pentastar Alignment and Krennel's Cituric Hegemony. However, the latter two were mostly support in name only. Someone over on Sufficient Velocity did say Kaine was on the verge of fully aligning with Thrawn's forces, but I can't find a direct quote on Wookieepedia. Maybe he was just confusing that with the Confederacy, though. Apparently Corellia is with him, though.

The Battle of Bilbrigi was already looking bad for Thrawn when he was assassinated. It is entirely possible that he will be forced to withdraw, suffering a major loss of infrastructure and moral.

Fortunately, if you read the OP, you'd see I already outlined how Bilbringi turns out.

And without his clones, I especially doubt he would have the numbers to win in the long run.

Well, he had at least enough clones to seed them around the galaxy in sleeper cells, though it's unclear to what extent this was done. Still, I'm guessing this means he's not short of clone personnel if he felt he could spare them to essentially sit around. He could always activate them, especially after losing the main facility.

Though perhaps Thrawn would not be as harsh as the Emperor and allow systems to largely run their own affairs while he built up to prep for the Vong invasion. That would be an interesting concept. What would be really interesting is if he ended up working with the heroes eventually in an attempt to stop the Vong for good.

I'd have to dig out The Last Command but IIRC that's basically what he was going to do when he took over Ukio. At least on paper, though Pellaeon mused they'd eventually be fully subsumed into the Imperial war machine. But it does sound like Thrawn's not being a complete dick about it.

[Thanas]

Thrawn wants resources and the trade to flow. He couldn't care less about the culture of Ukio as long as they meet the quotas.

[Abacus]

I forget where exactly it is, perhaps in the New Essential Guide to Warfare (I'll have to go re-read that), but it mentions an interview with Gilad Pellaeon a few years into his retirement talking about his former mentor, about how the battle was still in the Empire's control due to the fact that there were local reinforcements within close call -- much closer than anything the rebels could manage to procure and use effectively. I believe that, had Thrawn survived the assassination attempt, that it is fair to say that he would have managed to deliver a pounding to the Smugglers Alliance and the Rebels both.

Bilbringi would have been a victory he needed to gain further support from those Moffs and Grand Moffs that were still hesitant to fully support him. With the defeat of such a large portion of the Rebel's primary assault fleet, and perhaps the death of it's leading admiral (I'm assuming Ackbar would die here, heroically of course), Thrawn could then use that as leverage to eventually gain full and absolute control over the Imperial Remnants [emphasis on that 's' there].

Thrawn wasn't above allowing a certain latitude to his allies (as displayed in Choices of One), so I think it's possible that he would have beaten the Rebels back over the course of a continued blitzkrieg campaign before eventually offering them peace in return for submitting to Imperial rule. If they refused, as he would know most likely would, he would then have political and moral authority to fully crush them and thus allow the Galactic Empire to be reformed on Coruscant. Using his prestige and weight with the Imperial Military, he could overrule and possibly remove some of the more offensive members of the Moff and Grand Moff ranks; keeping those members who had the proper sense to see further than their pocket books (Moffs like Ardus Kaine).

But then that's us talking here. Thrawn can't be allowed to win, in terms of George Lucas' vision and idea for the Star Wars galaxy. While is not as evil or maniacal as either Vader or the Emperor, he is still part of an oppressive and authoritarian government. If they had Thrawn making peace with the New Republic and eventually following up towards the same story-line that Daala received (becoming the Head of State of a new galactic government)...then that might be permissible.

[The Romulan Republic]

Of course, Pellaeon might be a bit biased about the Empire's chances in that battle.

As to Ackbar dying, as I recall, Thrawn planned to allow him to escape, hoping he would be blamed for the disaster. Basically a political ploy.

[Q99]

Thrawn wasn't above allowing a certain latitude to his allies (as displayed in Choices of One), so I think it's possible that he would have beaten the Rebels back over the course of a continued blitzkrieg campaign before eventually offering them peace in return for submitting to Imperial rule. If they refused, as he would know most likely would, he would then have political and moral authority to fully crush them and thus allow the Galactic Empire to be reformed on Coruscant. Using his prestige and weight with the Imperial Military, he could overrule and possibly remove some of the more offensive members of the Moff and Grand Moff ranks; keeping those members who had the proper sense to see further than their pocket books (Moffs like Ardus Kaine).

Oh, I can't see Thrawn doing near that well. Sure, he'll make progress, but the bigger the war gets, the less his main advantage matters- namely, his personal presence in deciding battles. The other Moffs and Admirals and Warlords are still the ones who've been losing to the Republic, and while Thrawn may be the single *best* commander on either side, he hasn't shown skill in teaching others- indeed, his thought processes are largely a black box, so it's harder for even those who fight alongside him to pick up his tricks. You could run into a situation where Thrawn has to move front to front to prevent the others from collapsing. And while he may be able to remove some troublesome individuals, the rot in the Empire is wide and deep, removing a few won't make 'em good governors on the whole, oppression is still their go-to and that'll take a lot more time to reform- and Thrawn's a military commander, not a politician, so he may encounter unexpected political problems that hamper him at bad times.

Also, another big matter: Jedi. He just lost his counters to Luke. Luke, Mara, and other potential Jedi (like Kyle Katarn) could now focus on doing their Jedi thing with no force user opposition. Sabotage missions, convincing less-bad Imperials to defect, even perhaps going after Thrawn himself). We see throughout SW that without force users or something similar to counter force users, they'll fairly regularly pull off incredible missions. The moment the CIS lost it's force users in the Clone Wars, it was trivial to take out their leadership.


Now, I *do* see Thrawn maintaining a much larger and more vibrant Imperial Remnant, across a lot of the top of the map (ironically, right where the Vong are going to smack into), but reconquest of the New Republic is out, and 'peace in return for submission to Imperial Rule' is going to be very unattractive to much of the galaxy.

[Adam Reynolds]

Oh, I can't see Thrawn doing near that well. Sure, he'll make progress, but the bigger the war gets, the less his main advantage matters- namely, his personal presence in deciding battles. The other Moffs and Admirals and Warlords are still the ones who've been losing to the Republic, and while Thrawn may be the single *best* commander on either side, he hasn't shown skill in teaching others- indeed, his thought processes are largely a black box, so it's harder for even those who fight alongside him to pick up his tricks. You could run into a situation where Thrawn has to move front to front to prevent the others from collapsing. And while he may be able to remove some troublesome individuals, the rot in the Empire is wide and deep, removing a few won't make 'em good governors on the whole, oppression is still their go-to and that'll take a lot more time to reform- and Thrawn's a military commander, not a politician, so he may encounter unexpected political problems that hamper him at bad times.

That is both the counter to Thrawn and the counter to Jedi, at least in this era. Though he could likely keep the initiative going in order to weaken the NR enough that his lesser followers could pick up the slack. And I wouldn't say he is a terrible teacher. Pellaeon learned a great deal from him as was clearly shown in Spectre of the Past.

Also, another big matter: Jedi. He just lost his counters to Luke. Luke, Mara, and other potential Jedi (like Kyle Katarn) could now focus on doing their Jedi thing with no force user opposition. Sabotage missions, convincing less-bad Imperials to defect, even perhaps going after Thrawn himself). We see throughout SW that without force users or something similar to counter force users, they'll fairly regularly pull off incredible missions. The moment the CIS lost it's force users in the Clone Wars, it was trivial to take out their leadership.

Not to disagree, as I have previously argued that Thrawn should have lost to Jedi precog(though I don't mean to restart that debate), but the CIS lost just as much because Palpatine set them up. That easily mattered as much as the problem of losing their Force users in one fell swoop.

And while I hate them as a plot device, in this case Ysalimiri would also be an effective counter to Jedi tying to do something like assassinate Thrawn. If we're going by the canon of these books, they exist. Once nullified, Jedi wouldn't be that hard to take out.Ysalimiri would also nullify the ability of Jedi to as easily see Thrawn's machinations.

[RogueIce]

Oh, I can't see Thrawn doing near that well. Sure, he'll make progress, but the bigger the war gets, the less his main advantage matters- namely, his personal presence in deciding battles. The other Moffs and Admirals and Warlords are still the ones who've been losing to the Republic, and while Thrawn may be the single *best* commander on either side, he hasn't shown skill in teaching others- indeed, his thought processes are largely a black box, so it's harder for even those who fight alongside him to pick up his tricks. You could run into a situation where Thrawn has to move front to front to prevent the others from collapsing. And while he may be able to remove some troublesome individuals, the rot in the Empire is wide and deep, removing a few won't make 'em good governors on the whole, oppression is still their go-to and that'll take a lot more time to reform- and Thrawn's a military commander, not a politician, so he may encounter unexpected political problems that hamper him at bad times.

Grand Moff Kaine is, though. And if he fully throws in with Thrawn and becomes the political heart of the Empire, that should help out a lot. Not to mention the resources of the Pentastar Alignment and what that means overall to how the galaxy as a whole sees the probable outcome of the war.

Also, another big matter: Jedi. He just lost his counters to Luke. Luke, Mara, and other potential Jedi (like Kyle Katarn) could now focus on doing their Jedi thing with no force user opposition. Sabotage missions, convincing less-bad Imperials to defect, even perhaps going after Thrawn himself). We see throughout SW that without force users or something similar to counter force users, they'll fairly regularly pull off incredible missions. The moment the CIS lost it's force users in the Clone Wars, it was trivial to take out their leadership.

The Republic had 10,000 Jedi. The CIS had...three, at best: Sidious, Dooku and Ventress. You're telling me that those three could literally counteract all 10,000 Jedi on their lonesome? Seriously?

I know there was that whole stupid "Jedi uber alles" (especially with precog) thing awhile ago, but seriously. They are not unstoppable demigods even without the Shroud of the Dark Side.

Now, I *do* see Thrawn maintaining a much larger and more vibrant Imperial Remnant, across a lot of the top of the map (ironically, right where the Vong are going to smack into), but reconquest of the New Republic is out, and 'peace in return for submission to Imperial Rule' is going to be very unattractive to much of the galaxy.

This is basically accurate. To much of the core Republic leadership, this is as much an ideological struggle as it is political or military. Mon Mothma and crew aren't giving up until they're dead or locked away in an Imperial prison.

Though he could likely keep the initiative going in order to weaken the NR enough that his lesser followers could pick up the slack. And I wouldn't say he is a terrible teacher. Pellaeon learned a great deal from him as was clearly shown in Spectre of the Past.

To be fair though, Pellaeon is basically his only "student" that we can see: Thrawn maintains his flag on the Chimaera and doesn't transfer it around. Which means his other Captains (and whatever sub-admirals he had) aren't really exposed to him the way Pellaeon is. And most of when Thrawn does his "teaching" is explanations to Pellaeon after the fact, and the latter absorbing the lessons being imparted.

Granted if somebody like Kaine throwns in with him, and Thrawn transfers his flag to the Reaper maybe there's a better chance of him spreading the wisdom around. But that assumes he doesn't just bring Pellaeon with him.

And while I hate them as a plot device, in this case Ysalimiri would also be an effective counter to Jedi tying to do something like assassinate Thrawn. If we're going by the canon of these books, they exist. Once nullified, Jedi wouldn't be that hard to take out.Ysalimiri would also nullify the ability of Jedi to as easily see Thrawn's machinations.

In spite of my reply to Q99 above, I'm not eager to bog this thread down with that either. But yeah, the New Republic never took steps to garrison or even blockade Myrkr, despite Luke, Mara and Karrde knowing full well that the Empire was taking ysalimiri out of there by the ship load. If the cloning center is gone, he won't need them for that anymore, and can begin distributing them more liberally.

Even assuming he doesn't already surround his Captains and key officers with them as much as he can. Sure he didn't blanket the Chimaera with them, but he was never far away from ysalimiri himself. And when others were exposed (like Pellaeon or Covell) that was due to their need to directly interact with the Dark Jedi (in Pellaeon's case) or possibly as a concession to his ego (as in the case with Covell when they were travelling to Wayland).

With C'boath dead, that's no longer a concern and he has no reason to ensure his top leadership isn't protected at all times, at a bare minimum.

[Q99]

That is both the counter to Thrawn and the counter to Jedi, at least in this era. Though he could likely keep the initiative going in order to weaken the NR enough that his lesser followers could pick up the slack. And I wouldn't say he is a terrible teacher. Pellaeon learned a great deal from him as was clearly shown in Spectre of the Past.

Pellaeon picked up some stuff, but that was with a lot of time to reflect and learn, and that's his right hand person who had more insight and opportunity to observe than anyone. Most of his subordinates just saw their battleplans overridden with something more effective, but no explanation of why Thrawn knew that'd work. Overall, Thrawn's strategy is not one that is optimized for learning. Heck, Spectre of the Past used this fact heavily- their Fake Thrawn never had to explain his tactics, after all.

As for the Jedi, there's Luke, Mara, and both Kyle and Corran are around and have a little training. The Jedi are small at this point, but this is around when Luke starts training people anyway, so they'll expand, but even a few strong Jedi can do some damage, and Luke & Mara are that.

Not to disagree, as I have previously argued that Thrawn should have lost to Jedi precog(though I don't mean to restart that debate), but the CIS lost just as much because Palpatine set them up. That easily mattered as much as the problem of losing their Force users in one fell swoop.

Sidious was setting up *both* sides- while he did plan for the CIS to go down, he sabotaged the CIS when they were looking to gain too much advantage (like the first attempted to take out Kamino). Overall, considering the OR was larger and inflicting Jedi casualties was the goal, I'd say he helped the CIS a fair bit more.

And while I hate them as a plot device, in this case Ysalimiri would also be an effective counter to Jedi tying to do something like assassinate Thrawn. If we're going by the canon of these books, they exist. Once nullified, Jedi wouldn't be that hard to take out.Ysalimiri would also nullify the ability of Jedi to as easily see Thrawn's machinations.

The Ysalimiri being something Luke knows about and is not going to run into unexpectedly, and they still have limited range- If Luke's at a battle where a fleet with Thrawn is incoming, he may not sense *Thrawn*, but he may get a bad feeling about the rest of the fleet.

They would make going after Thrawn more difficult (though sans Noghri, not impossible), but there's still many sabotage missions and such Luke can do. Hitting shipyards and similar, missions that have great strategic value. He could even do stuff on the very ship Thrawn's on, drop it out of battle.

[Thanas]

The Ysalimiri being something Luke knows about and is not going to run into unexpectedly, and they still have limited range- If Luke's at a battle where a fleet with Thrawn is incoming, he may not sense *Thrawn*, but he may get a bad feeling about the rest of the fleet.

They would make going after Thrawn more difficult (though sans Noghri, not impossible), but there's still many sabotage missions and such Luke can do. Hitting shipyards and similar, missions that have great strategic value. He could even do stuff on the very ship Thrawn's on, drop it out of battle.

Honestly, Luke doesn't do assassinations, and I can't see Mara helping him a lot either. Note how they immediately split after Bilbringi/Wayland. She will have plenty to do to keep the smugglers save from the Empire anyway. As to sabotage, no modern war has ever been decided through pure sabotage. It will not effect the strategic outcome.

And as to the crumbling Imperial fronts, I am not buying it because by their very own statement, Bilbringi was all the Rebels could scrounge up and it wasn't that much at that point. So they certainly won't have the strength to go on planning offences elsewhere. Even more problematic, they now have to deal with an Empire that has the strategic initiative.

[Q99]

Honestly, Luke doesn't do assassinations, and I can't see Mara helping him a lot either.

There's a lot more to do than assassinations. Capturing important enemy figures, and stealing intelligence. Convincing on-the-edge admirals and governors to side with the Republic. Striking to hit areas no-one would think was hittable.

As to sabotage, no modern war has ever been decided through pure sabotage. It will not effect the strategic outcome.

Jedi have taken down entire shipyards in wars, sabotaged planetary defenses, blow up battlestations, and similar. That's the kind of stuff that has an effect. The Clone Wars ended when Jedi took out the enemy leadership.

No modern war has had sabotage be so decisive, but no modern war has supernatural wizard knights. And it's not doing it on it's own, it's in addition to all the fighting the enemy has going on.

Jedi and Sith have consistently been shown to have a strategic effect. Luke may need more before

And as to the crumbling Imperial fronts, I am not buying it because by their very own statement, Bilbringi was all the Rebels could scrounge up and it wasn't that much at that point. So they certainly won't have the strength to go on planning offences elsewhere. Even more problematic, they now have to deal with an Empire that has the strategic initiative.

They don't have the strength to go on offenses all over, but nor does the Empire. At this point, they're bigger and have more shipyards, so they'll recover faster. Part of the reason they're currently tired is they just took down some of the biggest warlords, like Zsinj, right before facing Thrawn.

They have more forces than were used against Thrawn (heck, we know the NR has an executor class SSD at this point), it's just they were stationed near the other Imperial areas in case they was needed there.

[Eternal_Freedom]

Thrawn alone didn't have the forces to continue a general offensive, but as has been stated, various very powerful warlords and remnants were on the verge of supporting him. Kaine, for instance, gives him a much stronger fleet and a substantial power base (including, IIRC, Corellia). If we assume other Warlords join him, hen suddenly the reunited Empire is in a much stronger position.

Oh, and the NR don't have an operational SSD at the time of Bilbringi. They've been secretly repairing Lusankya but she wasn't ready until several months at least after the battle -and required finishing work at Bilbringi itself. In comparison this new, reunited Empire will have at least one operational SSD (Reaper) plus at least two other large Star Dreadnoughts (Dominion, Megador). So yeah, the NR will not have a fun time if Thrawn does survive.

[Thanas]

There's a lot more to do than assassinations. Capturing important enemy figures, and stealing intelligence. Convincing on-the-edge admirals and governors to side with the Republic. Striking to hit areas no-one would think was hittable.

None of which will decide a war.

Jedi have taken down entire shipyards in wars, sabotaged planetary defenses, blow up battlestations, and similar. That's the kind of stuff that has an effect. The Clone Wars ended when Jedi took out the enemy leadership.

No modern war has had sabotage be so decisive, but no modern war has supernatural wizard knights. And it's not doing it on it's own, it's in addition to all the fighting the enemy has going on.

Jedi and Sith have consistently been shown to have a strategic effect.

They have an affect. Like sabotage has an effect. But they will never ever decide the kind of war Thrawn is fighting - a war without superweapons, a war where what matters most is strategical forces composed of small, numerous vessels.

They don't have the strength to go on offenses all over, but nor does the Empire.

But the Empire does, as evidenced by the rapid conquest Thrawn pulled off.

At this point, they're bigger and have more shipyards, so they'll recover faster.

But chances are they won't manage to scrounge up enough ships until Thrawn has already conquered Sluis Van. That leaves them with what?

They have more forces than were used against Thrawn (heck, we know the NR has an executor class SSD at this point), it's just they were stationed near the other Imperial areas in case they was needed there.

And those forces cannot be redeployed without giving up that territory. Which would be an even bigger loss.

[RogueIce]

The Clone Wars ended when Jedi took out the enemy leadership.

The Clone Wars ended because Palpatine said they ended. Yes, the Jedi basically had the criteria for Palpatine giving up his emergency powers for when Dooku and Grievous were dead, but they were not the only political and military leadership the CIS had. If Palpatine wasn't pulling the strings, there's no real reason that the CIS could not have continued to fight if they wanted to.

And as to the crumbling Imperial fronts, I am not buying it because by their very own statement, Bilbringi was all the Rebels could scrounge up and it wasn't that much at that point. So they certainly won't have the strength to go on planning offences elsewhere. Even more problematic, they now have to deal with an Empire that has the strategic initiative.

Ackbar at the beginning of Isard's Revenge (the immediate aftermath of the Bilibringi battle) has this to say:

"We sustained considerable losses in the Thrawn campaign: ten percent of our forces killed, thirty percent wounded — but those are just averages. On the worlds Thrawn actually hit, the devastation was significant."

Thirty percent "wounded" is somewhat ambiguous I suppose, but ten percent of their forces killed is not inconsiderable. Especially when you consider they were on (roughly) equal footing before Thrawn began his campaign in earnest, and in general the New Republic has been on the solidly losing end of the war since Thrawn took command.

So yeah, I would say the pendulum has swung firmly into the Empire's favor at this stage of the game - and as per the scenario, Thrawn is still alive to take advantage of that, even if he has suffered a not insignificant loss at Mount Tantiss.

They have more forces than were used against Thrawn (heck, we know the NR has an executor class SSD at this point), it's just they were stationed near the other Imperial areas in case they was needed there.

Eternal_Freedom briefly addressed this, but here's a quote:

Sian Tevv's large ears curled forward. "You should take the full month. If you do, if the reports from Bilbringi shipyards are correct, the Lusankya will be operational. I would think adding a super star destroyer's firepower to any taskforce would be worth the delay."

"The Lusankya will take longer to be combat ready. We have not finished training a crew, and several more shakedown runs will be needed before the techs turn it over to a crew that can fight from her." [Admiral Ackbar]

This of course being some time after Bilbringi, though I don't remember how long. Wookieepedia tells me both happened in 9 ABY though so not that long.

Still, the Lusankya is not combat ready yet. And given that this final fitting out was done in shipyards not under the New Republic's control in this scenario, there's no telling how much that could delay things, as she was originally being repaired in secret (presumably so as to not make her a target) so it's unlikely they took the ship to major shipyards as it's likely she would have been noticed.

Although granted KDY was able to construct the Razor's Kiss in relative secrecy from the New Republic around Kuat itself, so perhaps that wouldn't make a huge difference. Not sure why they'd need to transfer the Lusankya to Bilibringi then, but who knows.

[Q99]

The Clone Wars ended because Palpatine said they ended. Yes, the Jedi basically had the criteria for Palpatine giving up his emergency powers for when Dooku and Grievous were dead, but they were not the only political and military leadership the CIS had. If Palpatine wasn't pulling the strings, there's no real reason that the CIS could not have continued to fight if they wanted to.

The entire CIS council was wiped out by Anakin on Mustafar, remember? While Dooku and Grievous were the two biggest, the heads of the Trade Federation and all the guilds being gone was the final nail in the coffin. The Jedi were the tool used to destroy the CIS as a coherent force, right as he eliminated the Jedi.

Granted, there is a point that Sidious helped set up situations where either the Jedi would fail to get their objectives (early war) or get them (late war, especially Anakin). But it's not like the only war in SW where force users have been decisive. Even the Vong war against force-resistant foes, they had a notable strategic effect. Or... well, the rebellion, where Luke blew up the Death Star and was responsible for the deaths of Vader and Sidious. I do believe he's going to continue doing over the top useful stuff.

So yeah, I would say the pendulum has swung firmly into the Empire's favor at this stage of the game - and as per the scenario, Thrawn is still alive to take advantage of that, even if he has suffered a not insignificant loss at Mount Tantiss.

Fair enough, though I think the moral high ground the Republic has- or I should say, the fact that many people resent the Empire and do uprisings against it, meaning the more it has, the more effort it needs to spend simply on holding terrain- means the pendulum will fairly inevitably fall back. Especially as the other factions that may join up are lead by powerful individuals who will continue to want a lot of authority in Thrawn's empire, likely with a fair amount of internal bickering (After all, what happened in the EU was a conference to unite the warlords went so poorly Daala just decided to gas them all and gave up on actually uniting them!).

Still, the Lusankya is not combat ready yet. And given that this final fitting out was done in shipyards not under the New Republic's control in this scenario, there's no telling how much that could delay things, as she was originally being repaired in secret (presumably so as to not make her a target) so it's unlikely they took the ship to major shipyards as it's likely she would have been noticed.

Although granted KDY was able to construct the Razor's Kiss in relative secrecy from the New Republic around Kuat itself, so perhaps that wouldn't make a huge difference. Not sure why they'd need to transfer the Lusankya to Bilibringi then, but who knows.

Yea, that's odd. Still, the fight's going to go on more than long enough for Lusankya to enter the field.

Hm, maybe Bilibringi was so much closer to the front it was worthwhile...? Dunno, really.