Some ISIS-related good news: Iraqi army close to retaking Ramadi

[Channel72]

So, for some reason this story has been pretty obscure in Western media (I guess nobody cares anymore), but one of ISIS' major strongholds, Ramadi, has pretty much been retaken by the Iraqi army at this point.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35165747

Islamic State conflict: Iraqi forces push into Ramadi

Iraqi forces are attempting to move further into the centre of Ramadi, on the second day of an assault to drive Islamic State militants from the city.

Security officials say troops and Sunni tribal fighters have taken control of several districts and are advancing towards the main government complex.

The army's chief-of-staff expects the up to 300 militants inside the city centre to be dislodged within days.

But there is concern for the civilians they have reportedly taken prisoner.

Sources in Ramadi said on Tuesday that the jihadists had carried out raids and mass arrests in an attempt to prevent an uprising in support of the government offensive by the thousands of people living in districts under their control.

Troops and tribal fighters are moving cautiously through the devastated city
Ramadi, a predominantly Sunni Arab city about 90km (55 miles) west of Baghdad, was captured by IS in May in an embarrassing defeat for the army.

Retaking it would be a "huge morale and strategic boost" for the Iraqi security forces, former national security adviser Mowaffaq al-Rubaie told the BBC.

'Difficult battle'

Elite Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) forces launched the assault on central Ramadi at dawn on Tuesday, with the support of soldiers, police, Sunni tribesmen opposed to IS, and US-led coalition air strikes.

By the afternoon, government forces had retaken the al-Thubat and al-Aramil districts, and entered nearby al-Malaab and Bakir, security sources told the BBC.

Floating bridges built over River Euphrates, which flows along the north and west of the city centre, also enabled troops to enter directly the al-Haouz district, near the government complex.

On Wednesday morning, a spokesman for the governor of Anbar province, of which Ramadi is the capital, told the BBC that most of the IS militants who were in Ramadi before the government began the operation to retake the city in November had fled or been killed.

The army has also been displaying captured IS weaponry and ammunition

"We think there are no more than 300 foreign fighters from Daesh still fighting, probably the suicide bombers. But overall, we think we are very close to liberating the city," Muhannad Haimour said, using a pejorative term for IS based on the acronym of its previous name in Arabic.

"It's a very, very difficult battle, especially with so many booby-traps, explosives and sniper fire against the security forces and tribal fighters."
Mr Haimour said the jihadists had taken many men prisoner and prevented their families from leaving.

"It's very difficult to estimate the numbers. We're probably talking about 5,000 people who have been forced to stay by Daesh," he added.

The operation to recapture Ramadi, which began in early November, has made slow progress, mainly because the government has chosen not to use the powerful Shia-dominated paramilitary force that helped it regain the northern city of Tikrit to avoid increasing sectarian tensions.

IS has lost control of several key towns in Iraq to government and Kurdish forces since over-running large swathes of the country's west and north in June 2014 and proclaiming the creation of a "caliphate" that also extended into neighbouring Syria.

So, when IS took Ramadi last year it was really a major blow to Iraq - because Ramadi is not very far from Baghdad, so it basically represented a major IS victory deep within the heart of Iraq. At this point, it looks like the city is mostly retaken, however there are still remaining ISIS hold outs in the city, and they are obviously doing lowest-common-denominator tactical bullshit like using civilian shields/hostages.

On top of that, last week IS launched a major offensive against Kurdish forces... and basically just lost completely. So ISIS is really starting to fuck up, it looks like, at this point. They're far from defeated in any sense - they still hold Raqqa and Mosul, and many other smaller cities throughout Syria/Iraq - and have affiliated groups who hold territory in Lybia, and now even Afghanistan apparently.

An interesting thing is that apparently the Iranian-backed Shia paramilitary is supposed to be this really effective elite force, that was able to pretty easily retake Tikrit from ISIS. But the Iraqi government avoids using them for the most part, because having a Shia militia be responsible for most anti-IS victories is pretty bad for sectarian relations, and makes the official Iraqi army look pretty pathetic. The Iraqi army really needs this victory - several IS tweets along with statements in IS-published media make fun of them (with jokes like "Iraqi army tanks only have one gear: reverse") and other things of that nature.

[salm]

So, for some reason this story has been pretty obscure in Western media (I guess nobody cares anymore)

Really? I heard this like nonstop on the radio yesterday on a 6 hour drive.

[LaCroix]

Finally...

That was basically something that was bound to happen any day now. With the bombardment eradicating their more effectivve arms and their supply routes, and a real army (Iran) nipping at DAESH's heels or walking straight over them, it was only a matter of time. But this isn't the end. Currently, their manpower is stretched thin, and their supply erratic. That combination will make them retreat rather than fight on when hard-pressed.

There will be a couple more victories in the next few weeks, but then, things will slow down, again, once their troops get more concentrated at their "fortresses". Mosul and Raqqa will make Stalingrad look like a picknick, I'd presume.

[Thanas]

It is great news but the cynic in me questions how many shia death squads followed in their wake to ensure the creation of another ISIS by their actions.

[K. A. Pital]

Mosul and Raqqa will make Stalingrad look like a picknick, I'd presume.

That is certainly being figurative. There were more soldiers clashing in the grand finale of the battle at Stalingrad than the combined population of both Mosul and Raqqah. However, I do not expect ISIL to give them up without a fight, and quelling their resistance there is going to be hard.

[Purple]

It is great news but the cynic in me questions how many shia death squads followed in their wake to ensure the creation of another ISIS by their actions.

The only way this will end is if one side manages to exterminate the other. It's just a question how who and after how many cycles.

[Channel72]

It is great news but the cynic in me questions how many shia death squads followed in their wake to ensure the creation of another ISIS by their actions.

The only way this will end is if one side manages to exterminate the other. It's just a question how who and after how many cycles.

No, they will never be able to exterminate each other, not unless Iran nukes Saudi Arabia, which will never happen. This whole thing is a big proxy war that will never end in the short term, but over the long term will likely fizzle out after many more conflicts.

My utterly useless prediction is that over time, KSA will begin to lose relevance in the West, and will need to compete with Iran for the favor of Asian energy consumers. Eventually both nations will need to broaden their economy significantly, as they are both way too reliant on their energy sectors - this will require massive efforts to stimulate their tech sector, which in turn will likely come along with social reforms, and eventually in a century or so nobody will care that much about Sunni/Shia differences, just like the Catholic/Protestant battles of yesteryear are much less relevant now, even in Belfast.

[Purple]

No, they will never be able to exterminate each other, not unless Iran nukes Saudi Arabia, which will never happen.

Not directly. But what will happen is that the various regions will be ethnically cleansed to the point where they contain only one or the other but not both at the same time.

[Channel72]

There will be a couple more victories in the next few weeks, but then, things will slow down, again, once their troops get more concentrated at their "fortresses". Mosul and Raqqa will make Stalingrad look like a picknick, I'd presume.

Well, as long as we're making flaky WW2 analogies, ISIS seems to be channeling Hitler in the sense that they are really stretching themselves way too thin by opening up too many wars on too many fronts. They're not only going up against Baghdad (which is theoretically equivalent to taking on Iran), they're not only also going up against the Kurds... but they've also opened up a front against the Taliban in Afghanistan now...

If ISIS media and/or tweets is anything to go by, they are apparently confident that they can pull this off because they have a seemingly endless stream of recruits. They also are comparatively wealthy, meaning they can afford to pay individual Afghan fighters more than the Taliban can (with something like $400USD a month being the standard pay that ISIS gives recruits in Afghanistan, if I recall correctly) - which is a lot compared to what they'd normally get from the Taliban.

The problem is that a lot of their continued recruitment is contingent upon them seeming like they have the backing of God... meaning they continue to demonstrate success against all odds, which was a big part of their...um, "appeal", for lack of a better word. That and the fact that their goal is so lofty and romantic - they want to establish a worldwide Caliphate, whereas the Taliban is just happy to be able to operate an opium cartel out of Afghanistan. But the more that ISIS fucks up, the more they come off like "yet another angry Sunni militia".

[Grumman]

If ISIS media and/or tweets is anything to go by, they are apparently confident that they can pull this off because they have a seemingly endless stream of recruits.
...
The problem is that a lot of their continued recruitment is contingent upon them seeming like they have the backing of God... meaning they continue to demonstrate success against all odds, which was a big part of their...um, "appeal", for lack of a better word. That and the fact that their goal is so lofty and romantic - they want to establish a worldwide Caliphate, whereas the Taliban is just happy to be able to operate an opium cartel out of Afghanistan. But the more that ISIS fucks up, the more they come off like "yet another angry Sunni militia".

The other problem is that even if they weren't losing, they don't have an endless stream of recruits. They might appear to be able to summon reinforcements out of the aether, but they are only capable of recruiting from a hidden but still finite support base. They can convert secretly horrible people into openly horrible people, but they can't turn Joe Average into someone who wants a cult of rapists and child murderers to fulfill their dream of remaking the Middle East in their own image.

[Channel72]

If ISIS media and/or tweets is anything to go by, they are apparently confident that they can pull this off because they have a seemingly endless stream of recruits.
...
The problem is that a lot of their continued recruitment is contingent upon them seeming like they have the backing of God... meaning they continue to demonstrate success against all odds, which was a big part of their...um, "appeal", for lack of a better word. That and the fact that their goal is so lofty and romantic - they want to establish a worldwide Caliphate, whereas the Taliban is just happy to be able to operate an opium cartel out of Afghanistan. But the more that ISIS fucks up, the more they come off like "yet another angry Sunni militia".

The other problem is that even if they weren't losing, they don't have an endless stream of recruits. They might appear to be able to summon reinforcements out of the aether, but they are only capable of recruiting from a hidden but still finite support base. They can convert secretly horrible people into openly horrible people, but they can't turn Joe Average into someone who wants a cult of rapists and child murderers to fulfill their dream of remaking the Middle East in their own image.

That's true... to a certain extent. But it's not just secretly horrible people they recruit ... they'll recruit any disillusioned, purposeless young men if they can. What ISIS is selling to their recruits is basically adventure, purpose and brotherhood (and sex, of course).

In fact, if you actually read their recruitment propaganda, it basically targets average young males who may be disillusioned with life. ISIS basically promises you this "glorious" life of constant Jihad, where you get to take part in epic battles, and of course get to take part in social bonding and brotherhood, (not to mention free rape "sex" from conquered peoples, as Allah wills), etc.

In fact, hilariously, some of their recruitment propaganda is almost similar to the kind of thing we see in typical Western fantasy. I was reminded of the general first act of The Matrix one time when I was reading an ISIS propaganda piece about how "Western life" is just this soul-sucking waste of time where you slave away in a cubicle farm, working for "the man". It was basically like: "are you tired of your boring Western lifestyle working in a boring cubicle? Join Islamic State where you get to BE A REAL MAN fighting a glorious Jihad against Western oppression!! Does your boss suck? Are you frustrated that Western women won't talk to you? Well, join Islamic State so you can kill your boss, and then get as much sex as you want! Etc..." I mean... seriously, that's pretty much the gist of a lot of actual ISIS recruitment techniques.

Another thing which might make ISIS appealing is that... despite being genocidal rapist madmen... they're actually not racist. In other words, they go out of their way to be absolutely inclusive along racial lines. They even say things in their propaganda like "we make no distinction between an American and an Arab - anyone who wants to fight with us is welcome." They even brag about the Kurdish fighters and Persians among their ranks. And that explains why a lot of ISIS fighters are foreigners - they are from all over the world, from Indonesia, to Europe to even the USA. ISIS is attempting to build this all-inclusive brotherhood of fighters - and I'm sure a lot among their ranks felt like they had no purpose back home. (Of course... while they're not racist, you better fucking adhere to their Salafist religious ideas down to the letter, if you value the continued attachment of your head to the rest of your body.)

[Solauren]

Also, ISIS recruits both men and women from the un-and-under employed segments of society, and the Middle East (especially Turkey) is in the middle of a rather large recession.

Combine with the effects of the last 20 years on Iraq (Desert Storm onwards), and trade sanctions in the area, well....

They don't have an endless supply of recruits, but they probably have alot.

[Channel72]

And, it's done. (الحمد لله)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35186105

Iraqi forces have retaken a former government compound in Ramadi from where Islamic State (IS) group militants have been resisting an army offensive, the military has said.

The complex was "under complete control" and there was no sign of IS fighters, a spokesman said.

He said this heralded the defeat of IS in the city, although he admitted there could be pockets of resistance.

The government has been trying to retake Ramadi for weeks.

The mainly Sunni Arab city, about 55 miles (90km) west of Baghdad, fell to IS in May, and was seen as an embarrassing defeat for the army.

Tough fighting

In recent days, troops have been picking their way through booby-trapped streets and buildings as they pushed towards the city centre, seizing several districts on the way.

After sniper fire from the compound stopped and aerial surveillance detected no human activity, Iraqi soldiers moved in.

The military spokesman, Sabah al-Numani, told Reuters: "The complex is under our complete control, there is no presence whatsoever of [IS] fighters in the complex.

"By controlling the complex this means that they have been defeated in Ramadi. The next step is to clear pockets that could exist here or there in the city."

There had been no clear indications of the number of IS militants who had been defending the city, although some reports put it at around 400. No official toll of Iraqi army casualties has been given.

The Iraqi military believes the remaining militants have headed north-east; with fighting also reported to be under way to the south-west of the compound.

Gen Ismail al-Mahlawi, head of Anbar military operations, told Associated Press that the fighting had been tough given IS's use of suicide bombers, snipers and booby traps.

Concern also remains for the plight of hundreds of families who have been trapped on the frontline, the BBC's Thomas Fessy reports from Baghdad.

Although the full extent of the situation on the ground remains unclear, Agence France-Presse reported there had been celebrations on the streets of a number of Iraqi cities.

The operation to recapture Ramadi began in early November, but made slow progress, mainly because the government chose not to use the powerful Shia-dominated paramilitary force that helped it regain the northern city of Tikrit, to avoid increasing sectarian tensions.

Ramadi is officially under Iraqi control at this point, except possibly for a few scattered militants who will likely just try to go out in a last-ditch suicide attack. It looks like most of the remaining IS fighters just fled.

[The Romulan Republic]

Hah, that's certainly a reverse of the situation a year or two ago, when the Iraqi military was running away from IS.

I'm glad that they at least limited the involvement of the Shia militias, though I have no delusions that the Iraqi military is necessarily above committing its own atrocities.

[Channel72]

So, now that ISIS is (more or less) removed from Ramadi, it's apparent that the cost of removing ISIS in terms of basic infrastructure is absurdly high. Ramadi is "free" of ISIS, but to a certain extent the "city of Ramadi" doesn't even exist anymore.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/12/i ... 30408.html

Iraq: 80 percent of Ramadi in ruins after fighting

Months of battles and air strikes on ISIL-held city have pummelled most of it with 3,000 homes destroyed, officials say.

31 Dec 2015 13:51 GMT | ISIL, Iraq, Anbar, Middle East

Months of fighting and the recent pitched battle to take Iraq's Ramadi from ISIL have levelled most of the key city as officials warned it was too soon for civilians to return after it was recaptured.

Local official Eid Amash said 80 percent of Ramadi, the provincial capital of Anbar, has been destroyed in the battles between Iraq's army - backed by US air strikes - and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant group.

Amash, a spokesman for Anbar's provincial council, told the Kurdish media network Rudaw that some districts of Ramadi had yet to be cleared of ISIL fighters.

Iraqi forces declared victory on Sunday after wresting back control of the city's central government complex.

ISIL fighters laid thousands of explosive devices across Ramadi as part of their defence strategy against an offensive that was launched on December 22 by elite Iraqi troops.

The city was lost to ISIL in May. The US-led coalition carried out more than 600 air strikes in the area since July.

Ibrahim al-Osej, a member of the Ramadi district council, said there was "extensive destruction in the city as a result of terrorist activity and military operations".

"Preliminary estimates show more than 3,000 homes have been completely destroyed," Osej told the AFP news agency.

He said that figure would grow because assessments could not be immediately carried out in some neighbourhoods that hadn't been cleared of land mines.

"All water, electricity, sewage and other infrastructure - such as bridges, government facilities, hospitals and schools - have suffered some degree of damage," Osej said.

Major Michael Filanowski, a US operations officer, said five bridges in Ramadi - which lies on the Euphrates and is 100 kilometres west of Baghdad - have suffered various levels of destruction.

Civilians began fleeing Ramadi two years ago when ISIL started moving in and tensions escalated. The exodus continued until this week.

Residents of Anbar account for more than one third of the 3.2 million people displaced by fighting in Iraq since the start of 2014, according to the International Organization for Migration.

Between ISIS' "scorched-earth" defense strategy, US air strikes, and just general street battles between the Iraqi army and ISIS militants, Ramadi is basically just rubble. The millions of people who used to live there can't simply return to their homes and act like nothing happened.

Also, just because they drive ISIS out of the city doesn't mean ISIS stops attacking the city. Just yesterday there was another coordinated suicide attack on the outskirts of Ramadi.

It's reasonable to assume the same will happen once the Iraqi army gets around to invading Mosul. The only way to recover from this would be to dump billions into infrastructure building and construction projects, while at the same time dumping billions into additional defense spending to ward off further ISIS incursions. Meanwhile, millions of people are displaced, fleeing Iraq, while the poorest remain there, many of whom are easy targets for radicalization efforts.

On the other hand, Iraq has really started to ramp up oil production and export in the last few months, meaning that the money for infrastrucure building is available. (They made around 3.6 billion USD in November). The question is, will the Shia dominated government even bother dumping so much money into Sunni-dominated Ramadi and Mosul - cities where some of the population were ISIS sympathizers? (The answer is probably no - at least, not without serious Whitehouse pressure.)

So, is there really any functional difference, then, between the state of Ramadi now, versus if the US had just fucking carpet-bombed the entire city back in May? Probably not. (I'm not suggesting that would have been a good idea - I'm saying the end result is more or less the same.)