Opinions on a new car

[Borgholio]

So the lease is almost up on my 2013 Prius. It's been a good car, no real issues and has served me well. The idea when I got the lease was to not give a shit about going over my mileage since I was just going to pay off the rest of it. They only ding you on going over if you turn the car in at the end of the lease.

Well, that was the plan until they came out with the 2016 Prius, 2016 Chevy Volt, and announced the Tesla Model 3. Now with three even more efficient cars on the market (or soon to be, in the case of the Tesla), I have the option to upgrade instead of simply financing my existing car. Question is, what should I go for? Here is the rundown:

1. Stick with my 2013 Prius. It gets in the low 50's MPG and the payments when I finance will be about $100 per month less than what I'm paying now. Only upgrade to another car when mine starts to break down (could be a while...Prius is reliable), or wait until the 2016 Prius goes on sale.

2. Upgrade to a 2016 Prius now. The 2016 has been heavily redesigned and gets almost 60mpg. There are currently no specials available so I would probably end up getting the same payments I have now. There would be a marginal savings in gas and 30k miles of free maintenance but that's it.

3. Switch to a Chevy Volt now. The 2016 Volt is a plug in, which means it runs over 50 miles on battery before needing the engine (Prius only goes about 1 mile if lucky, and is limited to about 40mph...Volt can go on the highway in pure electric mode). The engine is not as efficient, getting in the low to mid 40's, but factoring in the battery means that for the length of my commute, I'd save about $30 bucks per month in gas. But the real kicker? Chevy is giving rebates and incentives up the ass. I can get into a Volt for close to $170 less than my current payments. So if I switched to a Volt, I can cut my car payment in half, save $70 over what I'd get if I financed my 2013 Prius, and save another $30 per month in gas. The downside is that this special ends on Sunday so I'd have to wait who knows how long for another special like this. Also, I might have to pay out the mileage penalty on the lease since I won't be financing it.

4. Stick with my 2013 Prius until the Tesla Model 3 is available. With government incentives, the Model 3 can be had for about the same payments I have right now on the 2013 Prius, but never having to buy gas will save me around $160 per month in gas.

So...anybody have any suggestions or thoughts? I'm aiming to save money at the moment so I'm leaning towards financing my 2013 Prius or switching to the Volt. Or I could wait until the 2016 Prius has a sale, or until the Model 3 is available.

[Napoleon the Clown]

Let's do math to compare the '13 and '16 Prius. Lowball each for ease of computation.

50 mpg in the '13 Prius is using .02 gallons per mile, or 2 gallons per 100 miles. The '16 will give you .017 (rounded up, because I hate infinitely repeating decimals) gallons per mile, or: 1.7 gallons per 100 miles. Assuming $2 a gallon gas, this is a savings of 60 cents per 100 miles of driving. That's really not enough to justify the price on its own. If you trust your current Prius to continue being rock solid, you'll end up behind by upgrading to the newer model when it comes to the financial end of things. If a '16 will offer you additional features that you consider worth the extra expense, though, go for it. Gas alone, though, will be negligible in actual expenditure on a monthly basis.

How much does electricity cost in your area, right now? How much electricity does it take to give you a 50 mile range in a Volt? In your current Prius, that's just a gallon of gas. Googling power prices, it seems that California average would be $2.82 (about) for 50 miles of pure electric driving. That's actually higher than gasoline in you '13 Prius. If you're paying less than the 15.34 cents per kWh figure I found, the amount spent would be reduced.

For the Tesla Model 3 to be financially better than any of the above, it will need to be substantially more efficient than the Volt. On the other hand, it will probably be a lot more fun to drive than any of the above.


For now, just stick with the '13 Prius if you want to save money. You sound happy with it so far, Toyota is known for being reliable, and I would think resale on a Prius is fairly solid in SoCal.

[Mr Bean]

For now, just stick with the '13 Prius if you want to save money. You sound happy with it so far, Toyota is known for being reliable, and I would think resale on a Prius is fairly solid in SoCal.

Agreed stick with the 2013 Prius for another year to two years, chances are even if you want a Tesla 3 you won't be getting one until six to nine months after it launches which means your real choice is upgrade to a 2016 or keep the 2013.

Here's the big thing however, as great as the 2016 model looks the 2018/2019 models will blow them away because those are the models that will take the "next gen infotaiment" system and refine it from the utter shite that will be the 2016 model because lets be blunt, it will be shite, not at first but trying to get upgrades with a system STILL designed around upgrades requiring a dealer visit or a 4g plan is a horrible idea.

We are two years away from the brand new/cutting edge systems being made unusable and dependable, wait I say.

[muse]

So...anybody have any suggestions or thoughts?

Forget cars, what you want is a Vespa with a sidecar.
And you can get a pink one and call it Princess Vespa!

---

But seriously? Forget the Tesla, the payoff doesn't work unless you live where electricity is free. Find out what your mileage penalty on the Prius is and see if it's worth it to switch to the Volt.

[Elheru Aran]

Yeah, as Muse points out, you're going to pay for how you run the Tesla one way or another. Sure you won't have to pay for gas... but unless you plan to leech the available public charging spaces or California is being generous enough to pay for charging electric cars, that's a chunk of power right there.

[Borgholio]

Thanks for the input guys! Sticking with my 2013 is definitely not a bad option given how it will save me on my monthly payments and I know it's already fuel efficient. For the sake of curiosity I ran the numbers comparing the 2013 Prius to the 2016 Volt (since Napoleon's estimates got me wondering).

2013 Prius - 50mpg average. Gas price $2.69 per gallon. Cost per mile - $0.0538

2016 Volt - 42mpg average (gasoline only), 0.31 kw-hours per mile (electric, as per stats on factory sticker). Gas price $2.69 per gallon. Cost per mile (gas) - $0.0640 Electricity cost between 13 and 19 cents per kw/h depending on time of day and tier system. Electric cost per mile between $0.0403 and $0.0589. Average cost per mile $0.0544 (gas + average electric rate).

So overall they are practically equal based on current fuel and electric prices. So I ran some numbers based on my normal daily commute.

Daily commute - 128.2 miles round trip.

Prius (all gas) - $6.90 per day

Volt (52 miles electric, rest of distance on gas) - $4.88 per day in gas + $2.58 per day in electricity - $7.45 per day

Ok so that's that...Volt is actually a bit more expensive than the Prius as a daily driver. This would change if gas prices go back up but right now my Prius is still more efficient.

But the whole reason I even considered the Volt in the first place was due to some specials they are running. My current lease payment is $339.77. When my Prius lease ends, I can finance the remainder for around $227 per month. This is pretty much what we planned on when we got into the lease a few years back. So we stand to save $112.69 in a couple months when the lease is over. Currently, Chevy is offering a ton of incentives and rebates to try and poach people like me who currently own other hybrids (they even have a $1,000 credit called a "conquest rebate", heh...). So when all is said and done, the Volt will cost me $177.37 per month.

So:

Current payments - $339.77
Finance Prius - $227
Lease Volt - $177.37

Difference of $50 per month if I went with the Volt. With the daily cost difference being about 50 cents, that brings my net savings down to $40 per month. At that point, it almost doesn't seem worth it to deal with the hassle of paying out the lease and switching to a whole new car. I can save over a hundred per month and keep a car that, as you guys already pointed out, is reliable and already very efficient on it's own.

Regarding the Tesla, it won't really save me much money since power costs roughly equal gas at the moment...it will save me a chunk if gas prices go up but at the moment it's mainly for fun. There ARE free charging stations I plan on leeching from so that will help.

[Jub]

The biggest issue with the Volt and Tesla are the overage rates on electricity. Just make sure that you factor in potentially bumping yourself into a premium bracket for power usage for both you car and your home.

[Venator]

The Tesla (probably) won't be available at the same time as your other options. Look how long the Model X was delayed - and we haven't even seen the 3 in development mule form. Granted, the headaches with the X could result in them learning how to shorten the development cycle - and not having insane doors will help - but it's optimistic to assume it will be actually on time. If it is, expect a very long wait list.

Toyota invested very heavily in reliability on the Prius - least recalled model, hybrid system is least recalled component - but there are always a few early bugs to iron out, particularly given the large amount of new tech being thrown at the 2016 model. So weigh convenience there against footing the bill for any issues on your 2013 as your warranty ends.

[Borgholio]

The biggest issue with the Volt and Tesla are the overage rates on electricity. Just make sure that you factor in potentially bumping yourself into a premium bracket for power usage for both you car and your home.

Our premium bracket is Tier 4 at 19 cents per KW-H and yeah we would probably be bumped into that, but our house has solar panels which will minimize the impact. We actually only pay about 60 bucks a year in electricity because of how much sun we get. If we stayed in Tier 4, then gas would need to go to around $3.50 per gallon for a Tesla to be cheaper (which could happen this summer).

The Tesla (probably) won't be available at the same time as your other options. Look how long the Model X was delayed - and we haven't even seen the 3 in development mule form. Granted, the headaches with the X could result in them learning how to shorten the development cycle - and not having insane doors will help - but it's optimistic to assume it will be actually on time. If it is, expect a very long wait list.

Yeah the Model 3 is probably going to have a 2 year waiting list...but like hell I'm going to plop down a 5 grand deposit just to wait that long for delivery. So it'll probably be longer for me...

Toyota invested very heavily in reliability on the Prius - least recalled model, hybrid system is least recalled component - but there are always a few early bugs to iron out, particularly given the large amount of new tech being thrown at the 2016 model. So weigh convenience there against footing the bill for any issues on your 2013 as your warranty ends.

I'm already out of the bumper to bumper warranty (still under powertrain for a little while longer and hybrid battery for another 50k miles). I'm not worried about breakdowns at the moment but as with my last car, if repairs start becoming a regular occurrence then I'll definitely have to trade up at that point.

[Jub]

The biggest issue with the Volt and Tesla are the overage rates on electricity. Just make sure that you factor in potentially bumping yourself into a premium bracket for power usage for both you car and your home.

Our premium bracket is Tier 4 at 19 cents per KW-H and yeah we would probably be bumped into that, but our house has solar panels which will minimize the impact. We actually only pay about 60 bucks a year in electricity because of how much sun we get. If we stayed in Tier 4, then gas would need to go to around $3.50 per gallon for a Tesla to be cheaper (which could happen this summer).

It sounds like you've got a pretty sweet setup and have put thought in all the right places when looking at your latest vehicle lease/purchase.

[Borgholio]

It sounds like you've got a pretty sweet setup and have put thought in all the right places when looking at your latest vehicle lease/purchase.

Yeah we were lucky to buy a house from a company that includes solar in all new buildings. It helps a lot when we want to run the AC (or charge an electric car in the future).

[Napoleon the Clown]

One thing to consider, of course, is gas prices will eventually go back up. It may take a few years, as OPEC is currently attempting to strangle fracking companies. Price per barrel of oil is artificially deflated because everybody that pulls up oil without fracking doesn't want the competition. Fracking got competitive with traditional methods, so now people running the traditional companies are undercutting what fracking can possibly offer. Even at a loss, they can afford to do this for some time because they've got insane amounts of money lying around. Prices may remain low for the next five years, or they may shoot back up in less than one. It depends on how soon somebody caves.

Most likely, gas prices will remain low long enough for better options to come out. Chevy will be offering an all-electric crossover late 2016, according to Wikipedia, that will be called the Bolt. Preliminary estimates put it at 200+ mile range on a 60 kWh battery. More info is gonna be out for when you can expect to even see a Model 3 getting tested by Consumer Reports. If you're planning to go long-game on gas prices, pure electric may be your best bet. Infrastructure is improving all the time, and I would assume this is especially true in SoCal. Of course, if you're playing the long game it wouldn't hurt to wait and see how the pure-electric vehicles from less expensive car companies perform. More and more options will be announced, rolled out, etc.

Letting other people be victim of the bugs that will no doubt infest early generations of a new EV is also good.

[Elheru Aran]

The notion is that for the next... probably year or so they'll go down even more (I've even seen estimates that say they might go as low as 1 dollar. WTF?), but they'll start gradually climbing back up through the next few after that. I'd just stick with hybrids through this period whenever possible.

[Borgholio]

I haven't seen dollar gas since 1998 in Wyoming...82 cents per gallon! Yeah I'm planning for the future here. Regardless of what I do with my car, I'm not leaving the hybrid / EV circle. When prices spike again I'll be glad I didn't buy a monster pickup truck.

[Vain]

I know this wasn't on your list of choices, and is likely more expensive than you're looking for, but I bought a Tesla Model S in 2015 and it is the best car I've ever driven. I was curious about Tesla as a company from when the Roadster was first announced, but I was dubious about the Model S for a number of reasons. I wasn't sure if the range would be sufficient to my needs, especially in the winter. I was worried that the charging infrastructure wouldn't support my occasional longer trips, and I didn't like replacing physical controls with a giant touch screen. But, I was in the market for a new car, and I thought it was worth trying out. Someone told me, 'If you can't afford it, don't test drive one. It will ruin your life.' I think that's probably good advice. Launching a Model S in Insane mode is like being fired out of a linear induction roller coaster. That's literally what it feels like, not hyperbole. I haven't been to a gas station, period, full stop, since I took delivery of the car. There are zillions of little conveniences and luxuries that they got right. For example, the smart suspension remembers dodgy pavement after the very first encounter and adjusts appropriately when you drive over it in the future.

My previous vehicle was a sports car, so even though the Model S is quicker, I'm paying less than I was in insurance because it's a big, safe sedan. I live in an apartment building and park my car in an assigned space in the garage, and charging is included free. Between that and Super Charging when I'm on the road, I haven't paid a cent to charge it, ever. Where I live in Maryland, electricity is relatively green, so equivalent emissions are very good.

Tesla's aren't ubiquitous in Maryland yet, so people are still very excited to see them. I get rubbernecking and excited thumbs up all the time. I also get doofs in Mustangs and Camaros who act like Elon Musk insulted their football team.

A couple of months ago, I took a friend of mine out for dinner and after we ate we went for a spin. I stepped on it to merge onto the freeway and she turned to me and said, 'This is the kind of car that gets you laid.'

All of that is sort of a roundabout way to lead up to saying that, although I'm sure they'll make some compromises for the Model 3 that they didn't have to with the Model S, judging by my experience owning a Tesla, if I were in your position, I'd hold on to the Prius until I could lay hands on the Model 3. A pure EV really is like nothing else.

[Borgholio]

I would fucking love a Model S, but you're right it's out of my price range. All the new features they come out with every few months (autopilot, auto-park, auto-summon...) are making me have a cargasm. I've seen videos of passengers who aren't expecting Insane mode, and it's funny as hell.

[aerius]

Teslas work only if you have the infrastructure to support them. My friend's son works for Tesla and they have a demo Model S, works great as long as they keep it along the Windsor to Montreal corridor where they have the supercharger stations to keep it topped up, but as soon as you go up north you're in trouble. They had to get creative on a trip and charge from boat docks and RV parks, those were the only 240V outlets they could find that would charge the car up in under a day.

Here in Canada we have hundreds of miles of absolutely nothing. There's a gas station with an inn every so often and that's it, and there's no supercharger stations from the middle of Ontario to Alberta, that's like a 3000km gap. You're going to be limited to 400-500km a day of driving per day since you're charging from 240V outlets at best, so it's going to take you 6-8 days to drive that distance. With a gasoline car you can easily cover 1000km per day and get there at least twice as fast, and have a lot more flexibility in route choice.

[Vain]

Obviously, if your daily commute involves driving hundreds of miles through a howling wilderness, a Tesla may not be a wise choice for your only car. Likewise, if you live in the city and park on the street, that's an even bigger problem. My parents live in a rural area, and a pure electric is a fine daily driver as long as you can charge it at home. Not being able to charge at home is a definite showstopper. However, Borgholio seems to live in SoCal and is interested in plug-in vehicles, so I assume neither of those scenarios apply.

[aerius]

Agreed. In southern Ontario where I live a Tesla works fine, we have cheap nuclear & hydro power so electricity costs aren't bad and commuting distances are all well within the range of a Tesla unless you're a traveling rep or something like that. I didn't even think about street parking, yeah, that's definitely an issue in some areas of major cities, I guess you could run a heavy duty extension cord out to the street but that's not exactly ideal. Now that you've mentioned it, I gotta wonder what the hell a Tesla owner would have to do if he got stuck with street parking. Hell of a problem.

[biostem]

For me, the issue isn't so much the efficiency of the car itself, (though that is a factor), but the repair/upkeep costs. At least in my experience, once you hit the 4-5 year mark, you start needing to perform the more costly repairs - sensors, belts, other components, which can be quite costly if you can't perform said repairs yourself. That's why I went back to leasing instead of outright ownership.

[Borgholio]

Obviously, if your daily commute involves driving hundreds of miles through a howling wilderness, a Tesla may not be a wise choice for your only car. Likewise, if you live in the city and park on the street, that's an even bigger problem. My parents live in a rural area, and a pure electric is a fine daily driver as long as you can charge it at home. Not being able to charge at home is a definite showstopper. However, Borgholio seems to live in SoCal and is interested in plug-in vehicles, so I assume neither of those scenarios apply.

Yeah I live in SoCal and we have superchargers going in all over. Still none within about 30 minutes from where I live (and none along my commute, grrr....) but stopping every couple days for 20 minutes and hanging out while I fill up is no different than going to a gas station with a normal car. Plus on the routes we take for vacation to our favorite spots in the Sierras, they have enough superchargers for us to make it all the way there with juice to spare.

[Elheru Aran]

For me, the issue isn't so much the efficiency of the car itself, (though that is a factor), but the repair/upkeep costs. At least in my experience, once you hit the 4-5 year mark, you start needing to perform the more costly repairs - sensors, belts, other components, which can be quite costly if you can't perform said repairs yourself. That's why I went back to leasing instead of outright ownership.

DIY repairs are becoming less and less of an option now with how freaking complicated cars have become. The basic operations haven't changed much-- just been finessed here and there-- but the way it's put together is a nightmare to unravel whenever you have to do repairs. About the only thing you can do with some newer cars by yourself, unless you've got a well equipped array of tools and the know-how to use them, is change the oil or the battery. And that's if you can find the damn things, my Cobalt's battery is in the *boot*. On the PT Cruiser I had, if you wanted to work on the alternator, you had to pull off the right front axle and go through the wheel well. That's just freaking weird.

[Venator]

For me, the issue isn't so much the efficiency of the car itself, (though that is a factor), but the repair/upkeep costs. At least in my experience, once you hit the 4-5 year mark, you start needing to perform the more costly repairs - sensors, belts, other components, which can be quite costly if you can't perform said repairs yourself. That's why I went back to leasing instead of outright ownership.

DIY repairs are becoming less and less of an option now with how freaking complicated cars have become. The basic operations haven't changed much-- just been finessed here and there-- but the way it's put together is a nightmare to unravel whenever you have to do repairs. About the only thing you can do with some newer cars by yourself, unless you've got a well equipped array of tools and the know-how to use them, is change the oil or the battery. And that's if you can find the damn things, my Cobalt's battery is in the *boot*. On the PT Cruiser I had, if you wanted to work on the alternator, you had to pull off the right front axle and go through the wheel well. That's just freaking weird.

I was going to re-wire the standard lighting stalks to control some add-on rally lights on my car, then I realized that the each headlight has 17 wires going into it. And the section in the maintenance manual on the wiring system is 400 pages long.

Speaking of batteries - having to re-calibrate the power windows to work properly after changing one, with an arcane series of button presses, makes me wonder about how much complexity is actually a virtue.

[fordlltwm]

For me, the issue isn't so much the efficiency of the car itself, (though that is a factor), but the repair/upkeep costs. At least in my experience, once you hit the 4-5 year mark, you start needing to perform the more costly repairs - sensors, belts, other components, which can be quite costly if you can't perform said repairs yourself. That's why I went back to leasing instead of outright ownership.

DIY repairs are becoming less and less of an option now with how freaking complicated cars have become. The basic operations haven't changed much-- just been finessed here and there-- but the way it's put together is a nightmare to unravel whenever you have to do repairs. About the only thing you can do with some newer cars by yourself, unless you've got a well equipped array of tools and the know-how to use them, is change the oil or the battery. And that's if you can find the damn things, my Cobalt's battery is in the *boot*. On the PT Cruiser I had, if you wanted to work on the alternator, you had to pull off the right front axle and go through the wheel well. That's just freaking weird.

I was going to re-wire the standard lighting stalks to control some add-on rally lights on my car, then I realized that the each headlight has 17 wires going into it. And the section in the maintenance manual on the wiring system is 400 pages long.

Speaking of batteries - having to re-calibrate the power windows to work properly after changing one, with an arcane series of button presses, makes me wonder about how much complexity is actually a virtue.

I've got a couple of early noughties peugeots and my parents have couple as well. The factory service manaual has more refernces to perform set of actions to enure 1999 designed Body Systems Module hasn't blown up. They are very tempramental especially when it comes to reconnecting a battery, quite why is beyond me, as half competent design should have isolated the ECU from the physical components, but that's the way they designed them.

[LadyTevar]

My 2010 Prius is totally paid off, the Toyota dealership still cheerfully handles all the 5000m maintanence (I pay ~$70 for it, because the warranty is over), and she is still geting 45m/gal. It's all in the maintanence, if you take care of her, she'll take care of you.

However, in the chance that something does happen to my precious little "Ghost", I will be buying another Prius. Living in West Virginia, hybrid beats electric because there are no charging stations that I know of in town or on interstate, because other than interstate all roads are curving mountainous two-lane stretches of nothing between communities, and because outside of going to work, any trip I make will be between 50-500miles one way. Many of those trips will have me overnighting at a campground, and Pennsic has the car parked for two weeks outside in near 100F sunlight*. Electric cars simply can't handle my lifestyle at this time.



* Yes, the hybrid battery was dead by then. But the normal battery and the gas tank meant she started right up, and had the AC working in no time.