Egypt Air 804 overdue

[TimothyC]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2 ... ve-updates

Now (as of this posting) 4 hours overdue. Last contact was over the Mediterranean.

[K. A. Pital]

Most likely a crash into the Med with no clear reason.

[Broomstick]

Not much info at this point, but according to the morning TV news this is apparently being treated as a fatal incident with no survivors.

[Broomstick]

Latest is that Greek officials say the plane made abrupt turns then lost altitude prior to crashing.

[U.P. Cinnabar]

And. so the conspiracy theories begin.

Again.

God damn it. Those poor bastards deserve better.

[SpottedKitty]

Mention on BBC News of a report of debris — a lifejacket and part of a seat — spotted, but not yet confirmed. Remember, this is the Med; there could be an unknown number of refugees' lifejackets drifting around for the past few months, or longer.

[Napoleon the Clown]

My speculation, based on Broom's post, is mechanical failure leading to a crash. Time will hopefully tell.

[TimothyC]

My speculation, based on Broom's post, is mechanical failure leading to a crash. Time will hopefully tell.

Damage to control linkages (electronic linkages in the case of an A320) caused by a bomb could also do that. We also shouldn't totally discount that this was a controlled flight into terrain.

[Khaat]

From 37,000 feet: 90 degrees to the left, then 360 to the right while losing 15,000 feet altitude, before being lost on radar at 10,000 feet. (Ten thousand feet over water? That seems a bit high to lose it on radar - course it all depends on where the radar is. Or I've watched too many drug-runner movies where they get down to 50 feet to evade radar....)

Greek officials say the debris found/recovered was NOT from a plane.

Greek ATC had failed contact with the aircrew 2 minutes before the maneuvers and loss of altitude, when they were to arrange hand-over to Egyptian ATC.

[Purple]

That sort of rotation sounds like something a passenger jet, even a small one should not be able to do without catastrophic failure. I think the guy from CNN called it right. Odds are what they observed is the aircraft falling apart and screwing with the radar image.

[SpottedKitty]

From 37,000 feet: 90 degrees to the left, then 360 to the right while losing 15,000 feet altitude, before being lost on radar at 10,000 feet. (Ten thousand feet over water? That seems a bit high to lose it on radar - course it all depends on where the radar is.

Very much so; if the plane just happened to go into its final dive while there was an island (or worse, a mountainous island) between it and whichever Greek ATC was watching it, that would pretty severely degrade low-altitude radar returns. Maybe other ATCs, maybe in Egypt, had it just about in range?

Also got to remember there are two kinds of ATC tracking; actual radar, and interrogating the plane's transponder. Some ATCs have both, some only have one or the other, and of course they don't have the same range or coverage.

Here's hoping the black boxes are recovered soon, this is a weird one.

[Broomstick]

From 37,000 feet: 90 degrees to the left, then 360 to the right while losing 15,000 feet altitude, before being lost on radar at 10,000 feet.

That could potentially be an emergency descent, although that would have them ditching in the water. Maybe the pilots were trying to "land" in the water before catastrophic failure? Maybe airplane on fire? Who the fuck knows at this point?

(Ten thousand feet over water? That seems a bit high to lose it on radar - course it all depends on where the radar is. Or I've watched too many drug-runner movies where they get down to 50 feet to evade radar....)

You've watched too many drug-runner movies. Even around someplace like Chicago civilian radar ends somewhere between 800 and 1200 feet above ground, only in the immediate vicinity of the airport does it go down to the dirt.

Over the Mediterranean commercial flights would be highly unlikely to be lower than 10,000 feet, so no need for radar to go lower.

Greek ATC had failed contact with the aircrew 2 minutes before the maneuvers and loss of altitude, when they were to arrange hand-over to Egyptian ATC.

The first priority is to fly the airplane, so it's possible the pilots hand their hands full with just attempting to maintain control.

I have some whacky notions of what might had gone wrong, but nothing worth mentioning until there is more information.

[Broomstick]

That sort of rotation sounds like something a passenger jet, even a small one should not be able to do without catastrophic failure. I think the guy from CNN called it right. Odds are what they observed is the aircraft falling apart and screwing with the radar image.

Depends on the g forces involved. A 360 degree turn isn't a problem, and a rapid descent would allow a much higher bank than in straight and level flight as it "unloads" the g forces on the plane. Most modern commercial airlines can handle up to +2.5g's and -1g. In straight and level flight g load is the inverse of the co-sign of the angle of bank. Haven't tried to figure out the g-loading for a given bank when combined with descent, but empirical experience tells me a really fast descent would allow for a significantly higher bank without overstressing the airplane. Also, you learn that in flight school.

[Broomstick]

Also got to remember there are two kinds of ATC tracking; actual radar, and interrogating the plane's transponder. Some ATCs have both, some only have one or the other, and of course they don't have the same range or coverage.

Your "actual radar" is usually called "primary radar", and it's pretty raw, with signal noise and picking up just about anything and everything, like flocks of birds.

The other kind is "secondary radar" which works with the transponders, and these days will edit out anything below a certain speed or size and otherwise reduces clutter. Air traffic control normally uses secondary radar

Here's hoping the black boxes are recovered soon, this is a weird one.

Seconded.

[InsaneTD]

Suprised no one has updated this since both black boxes have now been found. Here is a link, sorry for not quoting, I'm using my phone.

http://www.news.com.au/world/europe/egy ... 6adadc5c35

The article mentions that one of the boxes was in multiple pieces, which I find surprising. Must of hit the water hard.

[Purple]

My guess would be that this is because there is no real update to be had. They found the boxes but have not yet released any of the data that was on them.

[Broomstick]

What Purple said.

A box being in pieces isn't actually that unusual - the peripheral devices are frequently damaged or destroyed. The only thing that matters is that the memory unit survives. The rest can be crushed, burned and otherwise destroyed, it doesn't matter.

I don't think anyone doubted the boxes would be found.

[SpottedKitty]

Just seen the report of the FDR being recovered as well as the CVR. No other details yet on the BBC News site either. Fingers crossed that they can both be read after what seems to have been a pretty catastrophic water impact.

Wonder if the beacons were still working? It was getting awfully close to the end of their 30-day run.

[Broomstick]

Given the state of the art of black boxes these days I'd be surprised if they couldn't be read.