The 2016 US Election (Part II)

[Grumman]

"Chemtrails" conspiracists claim that airplanes, via visible contrails, are spraying dangerous chemicals into the air, either to change the weather or for other more sinister purposes.

Tell me this isn't really a thing.

It really is a thing. Airplanes really are used to spray a slightly hazardous chemical into the air to change the weather - when the Chinese did it for the Beijing Olympics nobody treated it like a conspiracy theory, did they? What the conspiracy theorists are wrong about is assuming that it's far more common than it really is, and that contrails are always deliberate cloud seeding operations and not simply a natural consequence of water vapour being a major combustion product of jet fuel.

[Flagg]

"Chemtrails" conspiracists claim that airplanes, via visible contrails, are spraying dangerous chemicals into the air, either to change the weather or for other more sinister purposes.

Tell me this isn't really a thing.

It really is a thing. Airplanes really are used to spray a slightly hazardous chemical into the air to change the weather - when the Chinese did it for the Beijing Olympics nobody treated it like a conspiracy theory, did they? What the conspiracy theorists are wrong about is assuming that it's far more common than it really is, and that contrails are always deliberate cloud seeding operations and not simply a natural consequence of water vapour being a major combustion product of jet fuel.

They didn't treat it as a conspiracy theory because it wasn't kept secret (That's rule #1 for eeeevil conspiracies), any harm (minute as it potentially was) wasn't the purpose for them cloud seeding, and I'm 99.999% sure that they weren't trying to steal our precious bodily fluids. But we are behind on the decibel percentage gap!

[Raw Shark]

"Chemtrails" conspiracists claim that airplanes, via visible contrails, are spraying dangerous chemicals into the air, either to change the weather or for other more sinister purposes.

Tell me this isn't really a thing.

I heard of it before. But it's so stupid I thought it was an internet hoax to parody conspiracy theorists.

One of the few people I see on a regular basis in my building, because I work graveyard (I call us the Creatures of the Night), is into the chemtrail conspiracy thing bigtime. She never leaves her apartment except to go to work and to get supplies, and when she does, she wears some kind of cloth wrapped around her head like a turban, and plastic gloves. We never really talked before the flood destroyed my car and my taxi last June, but then she cornered me and started giving me a wide-eyed sermon about how government chemtrail weather control did it, that they're also spreading chemicals that destroy our immune systems (HIV is a hoax, don'cha know?) and how I should be angry at them and join the revolution by spreading the word. She's dedicated her entire non-professional life to this, speaking about it at open mic events and handing out business cards with the address for a related website. I was high as fuck, and was wondering if I could possibly seduce her (she's my age and cute is the sad part), so I humored her for about half an hour before she got going on vaccines causing autism, at which point I got annoyed, started picking apart her pitch, and upset her.

[SpottedKitty]

What the conspiracy theorists are wrong about is assuming that it's far more common than it really is, and that contrails are always deliberate cloud seeding operations and not simply a natural consequence of water vapour being a major combustion product of jet fuel.

Sure, it's "water vapour" — everyone in on The Truth™ knows it's really that hideously dangerous chemical that kills uncounted numbers of people every year, Dihydrogen Monoxide!



(I wonder if anyone's ever tried out the DHMO schtick when a discussion with a True Believer™ veers in this direction? I think it's a safe bet that they wouldn't catch on...)

[Lord Revan]

If they're fanatical enough you might even be able to use the correct chemical formula and they wouldn't notice a thing.
Spoiler

For those not up to date with chemical nomenclature the chemical formula for dihydrogen monoxide is H2O aka it's literally just water.

[Mr Bean]

So today the eight three page State Department report was released about that department's investigation of Secretary Clinton's usage of her private email server.

This is not the FBI investigation which is ongoing and of greater scoupe involving as it does the Clinton Foundation.

Short highlights of the report

1. Secretary Clinton despite what she has maintained to this point violated State department policy with her private email server.

2. Many of Secretary Clinton statements on the email subject have been proven false by this report as there are two separate reported instances by the Clinton IT of potential remote access attempts which were reported to Secretary Clinton.

3. And the nice big one several Clinton insiders and Secretary Clinton herself were asked to be interviewed by the State department and they refused

TL:DR It's the coverup all over again. Lie about things that can easily be proven untrue and make up new lies to cover the old ones until everything piles up in a giant shit storm.

And the FBI investigation is still ongoing

[Mr Bean]

In other news Guccifer plead guilty among his several quotes he stated he has hacked Secretary Clinton's email server. He's pleading guilty however to hacking the aide not Secretary Clinton herself.

[Wild Zontargs]

Well, this could be interesting.

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have seemingly agreed in principle to give the world the debate it's been waiting for.

Appearing on ABC's "Jimmy Kimmel Live" in a show that aired Wednesday night, Trump said he would be willing to debate Sanders if proceeds from such an event went to charity.

Within minutes of the statement airing, Sanders had agreed to the idea.

"Game on. I look forward to debating Donald Trump in California before the June 7 primary," he tweeted early Thursday morning.

As of very early Thursday morning, the campaigns had made no formal announcements about reaching any specific agreement for an event. However, Sanders is scheduled to appear on Kimmel's late-night talk show Thursday night.

[Thanas]

There is no way this will reflect good on the Democratic party. If Trump wins, loss for them. If Sanders wins, he has just exhausted arguments Hillary would probably have liked to use as well. Even worse, this will lead to Clinton being compared to Sander's performance for all eternity.

[Lagmonster]

That seems at first blush like an unsettlingly shrewd move for Trump. I'm still turning it over in my head, but I can think of a few ways he comes out looking like a strong contender, no matter what Bernie says or does short of throwing himself on the sword and promoting Hillary the whole time.

[Flagg]

But no, Sanders is a good democrat!

[Mr Bean]

But no, Sanders is a good democrat!

But no, Clinton is a good democrat, she saw a debate might hurt her so she broke her word with Sanders for the May debate generating another line about Hillary being untrustworthy and leading to this.

[Elheru Aran]

I'm picking up some buzz that Trump is backing out of debating Sanders now? Apparently it was "just a joke" or something like that...

[Wild Zontargs]

I've seen people quoting Twitter about that, but it's always from "unnamed sources". Maybe someone will ask Trump about it at his press conference.

[Wild Zontargs]

Ghetto edit: Twitter video link of Trump's debate plans from the press conference. If a network raises $10-15 million for a women's health charity and puts on a big show, he's in.

[Wild Zontargs]

Sanders has accepted Trump's terms.

I am delighted that @realDonaldTrump has agreed to debate. Let’s do it in the biggest stadium possible.

[Raw Shark]

There is no way this will reflect good on the Democratic party. If Trump wins, loss for them. If Sanders wins, he has just exhausted arguments Hillary would probably have liked to use as well. Even worse, this will lead to Clinton being compared to Sander's performance for all eternity.

I'm okay with that. If Donny Jingles wins, he wins against someone who won't be nominated and is considered an outsider anyway. If he loses (and let's be honest here: he will get his ass kicked on everything except possibly style points), maybe Clinton could pick up a few tips from Sanders. Either way, Sanders gets a voice that he wouldn't otherwise have. Game on.

[Purple]

Any idea where I'll be able to watch this unfold?

[Mr Bean]

Any idea where I'll be able to watch this unfold?

They are negotiation time and date in the media at the moment as well as locations. It's still not clear if Trump is going for one good news cycle or three good news cycles. For example Trump might back out of this when Hillary agrees to have the debate after all which lets Trump secure a victory, he felt bad for Bernie so lo and behold he thought this up to help his guy out.

[maraxus2]

I'm okay with that. If Donny Jingles wins, he wins against someone who won't be nominated and is considered an outsider anyway. If he loses (and let's be honest here: he will get his ass kicked on everything except possibly style points), maybe Clinton could pick up a few tips from Sanders. Either way, Sanders gets a voice that he wouldn't otherwise have. Game on.

This "debate" is so incredibly dumb. It's obvious to anyone with more than three braincells to rub together that Trump isn't going to debate Sanders; he's going to be going full-throttle for Hillary Clinton. And for what? So Bernie can get on TV a little bit longer before he finally gets snuffed out in the Primary? And just when the DNC is playing nice with him and letting him have his idiotic picks for the platform committee? I do not understand what Bernie thinks he's going to get out of this, part from giving Trump a well-publicized forum to piss in Clinton's eye.

But no, Clinton is a good democrat, she saw a debate might hurt her so she broke her word with Sanders for the May debate generating another line about Hillary being untrustworthy and leading to this.

What purpose could a debate in May possibly serve? The Primary is over in twelve days. It's not like people are unaware who Sanders is. This is a pure desperation move on his behalf, much as it was when Clinton tried to get Obama into eighty different debates in 2008.

[jwl]

That seems at first blush like an unsettlingly shrewd move for Trump. I'm still turning it over in my head, but I can think of a few ways he comes out looking like a strong contender, no matter what Bernie says or does short of throwing himself on the sword and promoting Hillary the whole time.

Schedule it after the primary is over. Then he wouldn't have to fall on the sword, either he's the nominee or he promotes Clinton.

[Mr Bean]

What purpose could a debate in May possibly serve?

A demonstration that Hillary Clinton will keep her word, I'd thought that would be a worthy object in and of itself considering the number 1 negative Secretary Clinton has is "untrustworthy".

[maraxus2]

A demonstration that Hillary Clinton will keep her word, I'd thought that would be a worthy object in and of itself considering the number 1 negative Secretary Clinton has is "untrustworthy".

Honestly, who cares? Nobody is going to look at this as "a demonstration that Hillary won't keep her word," especially when that angle isn't getting and press coverage. At least, it's not getting coverage outside of the wankers over at TYT. Clinton refusing to debate isn't going to cost her support from anyone, and people who are moaning about it were never going to support her anyway.

[SolarpunkFan]

Hillary Now Loses to Trump in Polls

For months, Bernie Sanders has told audiences across the country that he is the best candidate to face Donald Trump based on polls that simulate a hypothetical showdown in November. Sanders continues to hammer in this sentiment now that the other Republican nominees have withdrawn from the race. And truly, new polls indicate this may now be the case. One of the polls, from Fox, not only shows Trump ahead of Hillary 45-42, a ten point swing in Hillary’s favor from last month, but also Bernie Sanders with a +4 lead over Trump. A similar CBS/New York Times polls shows Trump closing the gap on Hillary, with only a six point lead as opposed to last month’s ten point lead. The same poll shows Bernie Sanders with a 13-point lead on Trump. In this clip, I take a look at the group of recent polls that depict these claims. Earlier in his campaign, Bernie’s claims may not have been entirely true, but these polls indicate that right now, he may be right. Are these polls outliers or otherwise untrustworthy for some reason?

This entire issue circles back to the concept of a candidate’s electability- how likely they are to win in November. Even writing off Fox’s poll as trustworthy, and the Rasmussen poll as right-leaning, and the New York Times poll for including more independents than Democrats as well as Republicans, which favors Bernie, the realclearpolitics average of recent polling agrees that Bernie Sanders is polling significantly better against Donald Trump than is Hillary Clinton.

The real caveat or point of questioning is that this election cycle knows has been particularly peculiar. In general, polls conducted in May don’t necessarily indicate how the actual campaign will go come November. Given the wildcard nature of this election, there’s even more of a reason to wonder how much May polling tells us about a November election. While these polls may not completely paint an accurate picture, it shouldn’t take away from the sentiment that a candidate’s electability should matter to voters.

Well. We're fucked.

[Simon_Jester]

These numbers are going to wobble all over the horizon, buddy. It is grossly, stupidly premature to assume that we can predict the election based on the results of specific polls at this time.