Uk Referendum on The EU Announced for 23rd June.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

What the leave campaign seem to forget is that you cannot trade with the EU and not accept free movement of EU workers to go with it.

[Alexander]

Hopefully the UK will chose sovereignty and independence over being part of the EUSSR. The EU is heading for a complete collapse anyway so its best to get out now.

[Zaune]

Hopefully the UK will chose sovereignty and independence over being part of the EUSSR. The EU is heading for a complete collapse anyway so its best to get out now.

You will of course back this assertion up with some evidence.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Hopefully the UK will chose sovereignty and independence over being part of the EUSSR. The EU is heading for a complete collapse anyway so its best to get out now.

You will of course back this assertion up with some evidence.

That's one of the claims made by the leave camp. The elephant in the room during the debate whenever the failings of the EU were mentioned is that no-one said the EU was perfect. If we remained in we could at least try to make it better, whereas if we left we'd have no say in how it's run whatsoever. It's interesting how both sides spin the decision. The leave group are banging the drum that the UK is more than capable of standing on its own without the EU, the remain group argue that leaving would be tantamount to giving up.

The website to register actually crashed in the last few hours it was originally supposed to run so the government extended the deadline- cue the leave group crying foul because of their belief that most new registrations would be pro-EU voters. Not that they'd let something like a lack of evidence stand in their way...

[Tribble]

What the leave campaign seem to forget is that you cannot trade with the EU and not accept free movement of EU workers to go with it.

There's nothing actually stopping the EU from making trade agreements without requiring the free movement of EU workers, for example no one is suggesting that Canada or the US allows for free movement in return for access (and they would be laughed at if they did). The only reason why the EU would refuse to negotiate would be out of spite (which I admit might very well happen if the UK leaves).

Hopefully the UK will chose sovereignty and independence over being part of the EUSSR. The EU is heading for a complete collapse anyway so its best to get out now.

You will of course back this assertion up with some evidence.

I would say that the EU has some major problems that need to be worked out (such as an aging population, low growth rates, high unemployment in some areas, debt crises in some states such as Greece etc) and there is certainly the possibility of it breaking up if these issues aren't addressed, though I'm not sure if a complete breakup is a foregone conclusion (I am of the opinion that Greece will ultimately leave the euro though).

[K. A. Pital]

The only reason why the EU would refuse to negotiate would be out of spite (which I admit might very well happen if the UK leaves).

You do understand that Britain lacks the superpower clout to actually force the EU to accept such a deal (which is what the US is doing with the TTIP, forcing the EU to accept a shitty deal via sheer political pressure cause they can). So even with no hard feelings - of which there'll be plenty I can assure you - there's no actual reason to accept such a deal from Britain.

[Thanas]

Besides, the TTIP is something that is favored by many continental politicians. Germany has been pushing for it (because we like easier exports).

Why would Germany be interested in giving away free trade with Britain for free when Britain leaving means that a stated government goal - getting Frankfurt to be #1 financial centre - will be much easier to accomplish?

[Alexander]

Hopefully the UK will chose sovereignty and independence over being part of the EUSSR. The EU is heading for a complete collapse anyway so its best to get out now.

You will of course back this assertion up with some evidence.

The economic crisis and the flood of Muslim migrants being brought in by leftist politicians speak for themselves.

[Thanas]

That is your evidence? Seriously?

[Crazedwraith]

Hopefully the UK will chose sovereignty and independence over being part of the EUSSR. The EU is heading for a complete collapse anyway so its best to get out now.

You will of course back this assertion up with some evidence.

The economic crisis and the flood of Muslim migrants being brought in by leftist politicians speak for themselves.

The economic crisis started in america iirc. And what flood?

[Tribble]

The only reason why the EU would refuse to negotiate would be out of spite (which I admit might very well happen if the UK leaves).

You do understand that Britain lacks the superpower clout to actually force the EU to accept such a deal (which is what the US is doing with the TTIP, forcing the EU to accept a shitty deal via sheer political pressure cause they can). So even with no hard feelings - of which there'll be plenty I can assure you - there's no actual reason to accept such a deal from Britain.

Except that the UK would still be one of the largest economies in the world? And you do realize that the EU has trade agreements with other countries, right? And that they are negotiating with other countries besides the USA? I mean, it literally only took me 10 seconds on wiki to find a list of countries that the EU has trade agreements with or is in the process of negotiating:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_ ... agreements

Again, there are a fair number of countries that have trade agreements / in the process of making trade agreements that are not required to join the EU or the Euro. If Mexico and South Korea can negotiate trade agreements with the EU (with Canada not far behind) I don't see why the UK can't. Except, of course, if the EU deliberately refuses to out of spite.

[Tribble]

I've also yet to hear any arguments as to why a political union is a requirement for economic trade agreements in Europe. Perhaps as a Canadian I lack perspective here: North America seems to do quite well with its trade agreements and various partnerships without being part of a single political union, nor is one wanted. Is "all or nothing" the only approach that works in Europe or something?

[Zaune]

I think it's more the fact that greater political union in Europe decreases the likelihood of us ever going to war with each other again.

[madd0ct0r]

and it stops superpowers playing divide and conquor ás easily with individual nations. Bit like being in any trade cooperative.

[Simon_Jester]

Yeah. From the EU's point of view, Britain splitting away makes it much more likely that the US (in particular) will try to exert political pressure on Britain and then try and make Britain into a proxy to ensure its interests in the European economy at large. Russia or China might try to do the same thing, but it borders on certainty that the US will.

What the leave campaign seem to forget is that you cannot trade with the EU and not accept free movement of EU workers to go with it.

There's nothing actually stopping the EU from making trade agreements without requiring the free movement of EU workers, for example no one is suggesting that Canada or the US allows for free movement in return for access (and they would be laughed at if they did). The only reason why the EU would refuse to negotiate would be out of spite (which I admit might very well happen if the UK leaves).

The EU would have every reason to view Britain's "we're leaving, please renegotiate our trade agreements" as an act of bad faith on Britain's part. Moreover, the British exit would sacrifice a lot of the reservoir of trust that people in Brussels (and the independent European capitals) have for London. Negotiating the new agreements would probably be a much slower process and would almost certainly not be on anything like the favorable terms an EU member is automatically entitled to.

I would say that the EU has some major problems that need to be worked out (such as an aging population, low growth rates, high unemployment in some areas, debt crises in some states such as Greece etc) and there is certainly the possibility of it breaking up if these issues aren't addressed, though I'm not sure if a complete breakup is a foregone conclusion (I am of the opinion that Greece will ultimately leave the euro though).

Also, some of these are problems Britain itself faces and cannot be immune to just by leaving the EU.

I've also yet to hear any arguments as to why a political union is a requirement for economic trade agreements in Europe. Perhaps as a Canadian I lack perspective here: North America seems to do quite well with its trade agreements and various partnerships without being part of a single political union, nor is one wanted. Is "all or nothing" the only approach that works in Europe or something?

Historically that is how the EU has worked.

A nation that wants to abolish all its multilateral relationships with the EU, then negotiate new bilateral relations with them... I mean, Britain no doubt CAN negotiate new bilateral treaties, it's not like the entire EU is going to just try and pretend that Britain randomly sank into the sea and ignore them forever after. But there's no way that this won't hurt Britain's standing and status as a trading nation in the overall European economy.

It's like, if Texas somehow seceded from the US without a war being fought over it, that doesn't mean that Texas would get the same good deal from the US government (subsidies, federal aid in infrastructure development, free trade) that it does now.

[K. A. Pital]

If Mexico and South Korea can negotiate trade agreements with the EU (with Canada not far behind) I don't see why the UK can't. Except, of course, if the EU deliberately refuses to out of spite.

Neither Mexico nor South Korea have an agreement that would put them on equal standing with the EU countries in terms of freedom of trade inside the Eurozone. I am sorry, but do you just generally mean some agreement (which is obviously something that will be negotiated) or an agreement that is as good as being a part of the EEA? The latter is not going to happen after UK's hissy fit, I think.

[His Divine Shadow]

I think the UK leaving will be good for the EU because it will remove the USA lite nation that is the UK and shift the EU political spectrum a bit leftwards and also getting rid of a big trouble maker that wants special treatment all the time.

It might also, hopefully, force brussels to give up power or face more *xits and stop this attempt at becoming a federation. Perhaps we'll have some action on the euro fiasco and the damage it's doing to periphery nations too.

[LaCroix]

One of the reasons for the bad blood is that the UK was already enjoying some special treatment, a lot of protection, and even rebates on membership fee, and was still whining about needing more, and trying to strong-arm their position in every single conference, usually against a consensus of all other members. Any goodwill they enjoyed is long gone. With them gone, the EU could finally move forward to better integration and federalization, solving a lot of the problems we have.

[Simon_Jester]

As an intellectual exercise, I've been trying to figure out:

What groups in Britain might rationally favor a British exit from the European Union?

The one that occurred to me was "anyone whose relative position in Britain would improve when the London financial sector collapsed, and who doesn't care about their absolute position." But I watch British politics through the wrong end of the binoculars... thoughts?

[madd0ct0r]

If you are a business owner, say of a large factory, then a weaker pound helps your exports and leaving the EU might result in worker protections being weakened, allowing you to profit more by forcing worse conditions. You may also believe that the EU is the source of all the red-tape, and once you leave you'll be free to bring in anything you want.

People on low wages HAVE been hurt by competition from workers from across the EU. (they're also considered bloody lazy by those same guys, but that's another story).

Tradesmen, whom are in short supply already, would benefit from there being more work then people and should be able to command ridiculous wages.

There are no doubt plenty of bankers and traders looking to make money off the chaos and uncertainty of the exit.

For many pensioners, there is no way a Brexit can hurt them. They rightly assume any shortage in nursing staff will be made up for by importing from the commonwealth countries.

If you are Rupert Murdoch, or lobbyist for a non-uk based multi-nat corp, Westminster alone will be much more conducive to lobbying, with only a few desks between you an a profitable agreement.

[Crown]

One of the reasons for the bad blood is that the UK was already enjoying some special treatment, a lot of protection, and even rebates on membership fee, and was still whining about needing more, and trying to strong-arm their position in every single conference, usually against a consensus of all other members. Any goodwill they enjoyed is long gone. With them gone, the EU could finally move forward to better integration and federalization, solving a lot of the problems we have.

I'm pretty sure that's what heroine addicts that were chasing the dragon would have sounded like back in the day. Can I ask; what gives you hope that the EU will ever reform? And followup how is the UK being inside the EU impeding this?

[His Divine Shadow]

A lot of this is happening because the attempt at more integration and federalization... It's the cause of the problems, not the solution. And the more problems it will generate if the EU keeps ignoring it and steaming ahead.

[LaCroix]

Euro crisis - because there is no single control entiy to control individual state budgets.
Migration crisis - because there is no unified politic approach but 23.
Financial (tax evasion) crisis - because there is no unified tax policy.

There are 2 solutions to this - roll the EU back and get rid of Euro and Schengen or go forward towards an actual federal government. But right now, we are at a point that is not sustainable. I prefer going on, because it is the solution that will yield better results in the long term, even if slightly more painful at the moment.

[Crown]

Euro crisis - because there is no single control entiy to control individual state budgets.
Migration crisis - because there is no unified politic approach but 23.
Financial (tax evasion) crisis - because there is no unified tax policy.

There are 2 solutions to this - roll the EU back and get rid of Euro and Schengen or go forward towards an actual federal government. But right now, we are at a point that is not sustainable. I prefer going on, because it is the solution that will yield better results in the long term, even if slightly more painful at the moment.

Yeah, but that doesn't answer my question of what gives you hope that the EU will ever reform. You've answered what you believe it should do to solve its own self created problems, but you haven't explained why you think this will ever happen or how the UK is impeding it (although we can agree to waive the last part since I will happily concede that the UK is simply not interested in a Federalised Europe).

Further, lets assume that there is a Federalisation of the EU; what model will it take? Will we still have the un-elected Commission who are the only ones who can propose new laws in the EU? Will the Commission continue its long lasting practice of ignoring every democratic process it disagrees with? Will it - as Junker stated recently - just flat out ignore freely elected European governments who do not conform to what Brussels considers 'the correct type of government'? Will the EU Parliament (the only directly elected members of the EU apparatus) remain toothless window dressing?

[Alexander]

You will of course back this assertion up with some evidence.

The economic crisis and the flood of Muslim migrants being brought in by leftist politicians speak for themselves.

The economic crisis started in america iirc. And what flood?

The massive numbers of Muslim migrants that are coming to Europe, that are being accepted by leftist politicians. There are already far too many Muslims in Europe as it is, at this rate Europe will ultimately become a Muslim caliphate. Although, maybe that is what the globalists and leftists running the EU want.