Uk Referendum on The EU Announced for 23rd June.

[jwl]

I think it's more the fact that greater political union in Europe decreases the likelihood of us ever going to war with each other again.

Of course by that logic we should be first and foremost looking for trade agreements with Russia. Which actually might not be a bad idea.

[Crazedwraith]

A Labour MP has been shot, by a chap screaming "Britain First!!!" in Yorkshire. The campaigns have suspended for the day as a result.

Not seeing this detail in the link story by the way. Did you see the attack was referendum related somewhere?


eta: Ah. The Independent has it. But only as hearsay.

[Thanas]

I think it's more the fact that greater political union in Europe decreases the likelihood of us ever going to war with each other again.

Of course by that logic we should be first and foremost looking for trade agreements with Russia. Which actually might not be a bad idea.

These were in the works before Putin decided to invade Ukraine.

[Crown]

I suspect that many of the Remain people are themselves scared about the consequences. I'm not sure it counts as scare tactics to say "this is what we would need to do to balance the budget if we vote Leave, and you won't like it."

Oh you sweet summer child; Project Fear has been banging on about the sky will fall for so long that it's refreshing to see someone look for a non-nefarious motive for Chancellor of the Exchequer's latest faux pas.

Well no, seriously, do you think that Britain leaving one of the largest free trade zones in the world is going to result in growth of the British economy?

Well, yes. And so do a lot of economists. Britain is out growing the Eurozone economies by a quite big margin, even in the worst case scenarios if it leaves and it's growth slows from current rate it will still be growing and most likely at a rate greater than the Eurozone mean (just less than the status quo).

You can reasonably argue that the "this is what our budget will look like" argument is getting presented as a scare tactic. But based on very, very elementary facts about modern economies, it's not pointless alarmism. If Britain leaves the EU, Her Majesty's Government ends up with less money to pay the bills, due to a loss of EU funding for projects, a loss of international trade, and so forth. The reality is that to face that situation they will have to borrow, raise taxes, cut spending, or some combination of the three. Maybe not immediately, but they will. And postponing that inevitable consequence won't make the consequences more favorable.

I get that the current British government is trashy and lies a lot, but that doesn't mean they're automatically wrong to say that bad things will happen if Britain leaves the EU. Or that you can just utterly ignore the "bad things will happen" argument because it's a 'scare tactic.'

You sort of conflated economic growth and budget in your post, but this is why I called you a 'Sweet Summer Child' (which is obviously patronising but I would hope you'd take it playfully and not as an insult); currently the UK pays into the EU £13billion per year gross and the EU 'spends' £4.5billion per year on the UK, meaning that the net pay into the EU by the UK is £8.5billion. If Brexit were to happen than rather than a budget deficit, the Chancellor of the Exchequer; George Gideon Oliver Osborne, son of Sir Peter Osborne, 17th Baronet of Ballentaylor and Ballylemon and Felicity Alexandra Loxton-Peacock, educated at St. Paul's and Magdalen College, Oxford, would have a £8.5billion budget surplus if he just took that original £13billion that would have gone to the EU and spent £4.5billion of that on the UK (as would have happened anyway).

This is why they have been labeled (quite successfully) as 'Project Fear' by even The Guardian themselves who are as about pro-remain as you can get. And as the article its self pointed out; he couldn't do that anyway since the Government is in minority and the backbenchers who are voting Leave would revolt and vote down their own budget if he tried (I love me some blue-on-blue violence).

The Leave camp seems to use the "scare tactic" of the EU superstate, loss of sovereignty etc. Both sides use scare tactics because on some level, they work.

Well, that's not really a "scare tactic", it's more of a spoiler of what is in store and no one is denying that for the Eurozone (and thus the Euro) to succeed then monetary policy must be merged with fiscal policy and that the phrase of "ever closer union" is not exactly subtle in what it implies (not to mention the call of a single European Army, etc). If you'd mentioned the immigrants and Turkey fear mongering I'd agree with you, but what VoteLeave have done is they've moved on from their own Project Fear and rebranded themselves (quite successfully) as Project Sovereignty. And it resonates.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

You sort of conflated economic growth and budget in your post, but this is why I called you a 'Sweet Summer Child' (which is obviously patronising but I would hope you'd take it playfully and not as an insult); currently the UK pays into the EU £13billion per year gross and the EU 'spends' £4.5billion per year on the UK, meaning that the net pay into the EU by the UK is £8.5billion. If Brexit were to happen than rather than a budget deficit, the Chancellor of the Exchequer; George Gideon Oliver Osborne, son of Sir Peter Osborne, 17th Baronet of Ballentaylor and Ballylemon and Felicity Alexandra Loxton-Peacock, educated at St. Paul's and Magdalen College, Oxford, would have a £8.5billion budget surplus if he just took that original £13billion that would have gone to the EU and spent £4.5billion of that on the UK (as would have happened anyway).

This is what the Brexit supporters have been arguing, which with the greatest will in the world is simplistic at best, because it completely ignores the impact that suffering trade will have on the greater economy.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

It gets better:

Farage does it again.

Brexit use the Australian system as an example of how to decide how immigrants are admitted, while ignoring the fact that a quarter of Australia's population was born overseas... hardly an ideal example

EDIT: She didn't make it

[Hillary]

Well, yes. And so do a lot of economists. Britain is out growing the Eurozone economies by a quite big margin, even in the worst case scenarios if it leaves and it's growth slows from current rate it will still be growing and most likely at a rate greater than the Eurozone mean (just less than the status quo).

Which economists are these? I mean, seriously, this is just nonsense.

[Thanas]

So Britain - a nation that depends on trade with Europe - will be even more prosperous after saying "fuck you" to all the aforementioned trade partners?

That does not sound very smart.

[LadyTevar]

I've heard that both the "Stay" and "leave" parties have stopped campaigning for a time, due to the assassination of the MP. Cameron has also called off his visit to Gibraltar. According to the BBC, Spain's very upset at the idea of Gibraltar exiting the EU with Britain, to the point they're wanting (again) to annex the territory. Gibraltar's PM seems to lean towards staying with the EU, while avoiding Spainish control.

[Zaune]

So... if we do leave, is there any particular reason the EU would object to Gibraltar backing that up by sending over a gunboat?

[NecronLord]

So... if we do leave, is there any particular reason the EU would object to Gibraltar backing that up by sending over a gunboat?

What do you mean? Britain sending a gunboat to Gibraltar? We already have a naval station there.

Spain/the EU sending a gunboat would be unprecedented.

The norm in Britain at present is that areas wishing to break away are given referendums to do so, I see no reason to imagine any other scenario for Gibraltar is even remotely possible.

[Lord Revan]

I've heard that both the "Stay" and "leave" parties have stopped campaigning for a time

That makes sense as I'm sure neither side wants to be seen as trying to exploit this sad turn of events, I'm sure that especially the "leave" faction wants to avoid the impression that would consider this a good thing (thanks to the possible "Britain first" pledge) as in these things the impresssions matter more then the facts and giving the impression that you think a political assasination is viable tactic would be quick way for either side to loose the vote (even if they actually didn't think so and in case someone is idiotic enough to not get that I was speaking in general terms I assume that the "leave" campaign doesn't think so).

[Zaune]

In other news, Farage manages to pose next to a photo that is quite clearly a deliberate homage to something the actual Nazis used.

Compare and contrast:





According to the source, those are stills from a propaganda film (possibly Der Ewige Jude) exerpted by a BBC documentary on the Holocaust.

I'm fairly certain Farage was not aware of the similarity when he agreed to pose for that picture, in fact I suspect some overworked intern at the graphic design firm they hired to produce this stuff is having a good laugh at UKIP's expense right now, but really?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

What gets better is what I read on a Brexit campaign leaflet, naming 5 countries set to join the EU, along with their populations. The hilarious part? The lion's share of their figures belong to Turkey, which is at best decades away from joining

They also name Switzerland as an example of not being in the EU but exports more to the EU than us. Of course, the only reason that's true is because Switzerland is completely surrounded by EU countries, so they kinda have to

[Thanas]

...and of course Switzerland is subject to all EU laws and regulations to boot, like freedom of movement etc.

[mr friendly guy]

The Brexit movie had a nice bit about Switzerland not being in the EU and it still does so good in an economic sense. That's a reasonable argument to make. Then it ruins it by saying Switzerland has the highest living standards because its not in the EU because of reasons x,y,z etc. My bullshit meter just went off at that point because I knew Luxemborg had a higher GDP / capita and was in the EU. Watching the bullshit fly from both sides is now a spectator sport.

[madd0ct0r]

the welsh, scottish, and a big chunk of the north's position is quite simple:

http://twitter.com/davidoclubb/status/7 ... 6413140992



We're talking about chronically poor areas, some of the valleys being in the top ten most deprived areas in Europe (yup, including albania). We're talking about areas where the coal mines shut less then two decades ago, and the steel industry is still collapsing while Westminster chortles with their banker chums. Where job losses on the thousands in size are regular news, and the government response seems to be to put the boot in.

Fuck em. Of the choice of which distant bureaucrats to be ruled by, I'll take the ones that have done some good and not sold off the family silver at cut price rates to their mates.

[K. A. Pital]

...and of course Switzerland is subject to all EU laws and regulations to boot, like freedom of movement etc.

Nitpick: for a long time Switzerland wasn't subject to EU laws and at the same year they became subject to freedom of movement they've abolished it, putting themselves between a rock and a hard place and most likely simply cutting off the trade agreements with the EU next year due to the guillotine clause.

So it is possible to get out and get rid of the EU even being surrounded by it. It is just... well, not economically sensible, but still. Also, Switzerland is Switzerland. They''ve become a banker-run protectionist enclave of incredible wealth not yesterday.

Britain isn't such a thing.

[mr friendly guy]

It seems like a lot of the atheist and philosophy channels I subscribe to are talking about a Brexit, since most of them are British citizens. But even the non British want to talk about it, because sovereignty wah wah. I must admit, because these channels are interested, it go me interested so I did watch Brexit the movie.

Most of them support a Brexit, but the stupidity is too funny not to share


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6fq0YUJ4xQ

Go to the section where it talks about how the "total value of trade deals". Basically the argument is the EU "total value of trade deals" is miniscule compared to even tiny Singapore. Unfortunately for this person, once you add up the "total value of trade deals" for the three small countries it says has a better deal than the EU, the total value is 130 trillion pounds or 184 US dollars. That sounds nice and all if you can't be bothered to spend one minute on a search engine. Because you might find the WORLD's total GDP is signficantly less. GDP includes exports - imports and other things like consumption and investment. Now I know GDP has exports - imports, but generally those imports would be consumed (say China imports Apple products to sell to local Chinese consumers) or used in things like government spending (eg a country imports iron ore from Australia for its steel industry), so it would be counted anyway in those other sections of GDP. So there is no way trade for 3 small countries is bigger than the entire GDP of the world.

I suspect they used the Brexit movie method of calculating "total value of trade deals," ie add the economies of all countries with free trade deals with that particular country, so a country with more free trade agreements would end up with having the highest number based on this methodology. However I would argue this methodology is not as accurate for discussing trade as simply counting the value of your exports + imports with a particular country. Otherwise if I traded with a country with a large economy (and had a FTA with them), even if what is trade is miniscule, under this Brexit methodology we would have a large "total value of trade deals." I suspect if they simply counted the actual trade (imports + exports) they would find that most of the EU's trade is with itself.

*************************
Oh and the other thing that's funny. A lot of these channels are anti SJWs, heck I am anti some of the more extremist SJWs, and one of the reasons I subscribe to them. But what's funny is that they mock the SJWs cries of oppression on the grounds that this particular individual cannot be oppressed because they are rich, live in the first world etc (even though one would think they aren't mutually exclusive, but apparently they are). What's really funny is that they either whine about being oppressed by.....the EU (not letting them trade, no democracy, affecting sovereignty etc + insert Nazi reference, no I am not kidding with that) or are strangely silent when another Brexit supporter whines about it, when the same conditions also applies to them. Oh the irony.

Now that I have a bit more time, the total value of trade according to the world bank is around $38 trillion USD in 2014.

http://data.worldbank.org/topic/trade

Meanwhile according to the Brexit video, Chile's "value of trade deals" stands at 50 trillion pounds (ie $73 trillion USD), ie more than the whole's world trade combined, including Chile's.

[mr friendly guy]

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eu ... 16-7699714

Remain boost after Jo Cox's death - published 19 June
ComRes happened to be carrying out a poll for the Sunday Mirror at the time of the MP's murder on Thursday, June 16 at 2pm.

The results were staggering, showing 45% would be 'delighted' to leave the EU before she was shot - dropping to 38% after. There was no headline figure on voting intention.

A Survation phone poll of 1,001 people for the Mail on Sunday after Mrs Cox's death (June 17-18) showed Remain on 45% and Leave on 42%.

A YouGov poll of 1,694 people for the Sunday Times on June 16-17, also after Ms Cox's death, put Remain one point ahead on 44% to 43%.

A YouGov/Good Morning Britain online poll of 1,734 people on June 15-16 had Leave two points ahead on 44% to 42%.

An Opinium online poll of 2,000 people for the Observer on June 14-17, 80% of which was done before Mrs Cox's death, found Remain and Leave even on 44% each.

[Tribble]

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eu ... 16-7699714

Remain boost after Jo Cox's death - published 19 June
ComRes happened to be carrying out a poll for the Sunday Mirror at the time of the MP's murder on Thursday, June 16 at 2pm.

The results were staggering, showing 45% would be 'delighted' to leave the EU before she was shot - dropping to 38% after. There was no headline figure on voting intention.

A Survation phone poll of 1,001 people for the Mail on Sunday after Mrs Cox's death (June 17-18) showed Remain on 45% and Leave on 42%.

A YouGov poll of 1,694 people for the Sunday Times on June 16-17, also after Ms Cox's death, put Remain one point ahead on 44% to 43%.

A YouGov/Good Morning Britain online poll of 1,734 people on June 15-16 had Leave two points ahead on 44% to 42%.

An Opinium online poll of 2,000 people for the Observer on June 14-17, 80% of which was done before Mrs Cox's death, found Remain and Leave even on 44% each.

Setting aside the terrible nature of the tragedy, Jo Cox's death is perhaps the single greatest event to influence the campaign so far: a Labour MP campaigning in staying in the EU was assassinated by a Brexit supporter a week before the vote. As terrible as it sounds, It's the best thing that could have happened for the remain camp; they don't even have to say a word because the implication is clear: a vote for Brexit is a vote for the assassin and people like him. So it comes as no surprise that there has been a massive swing in favour of remaining now, and since this is so close to the actual vote I doubt that swing will change much.

Note I don't believe that this was some vast conspiracy on the remain group's part to help them win via sympathy vote, nor do I believe that all the Brexit supporters are Neo-Nazis. And yes, I am definitely being an asshole by talking about this so soon. But the vote is this Thursday and there is no doubt that her death is going to heavily influence the results, so there you go.

[Starglider]

I was at a party in Sheffield on Saturday where this was the main subject of discussion for the night. The majority agreed that a leave vote would be preferable if it resulted in a domino effect and the dissolution of the EU in its current form, but that if the EU was going to endure regardless it would be better to remain. There was no consensus on likelihood and timeline for an EU breakup. A significant minority argued for an unqualified leave, mostly on the basis that the EU is substantially less democratic and more corrupt than its founding countries and this is only going to get worse with expansion. Another significant minority argued for unqualified stay, mostly on the 'the EU is bad but it's better than countries going to war with each other' argument. Of thirty or so people there, no one was prepared to argue that the EU in its current form is a good thing.

[Dartzap]

If you don't mind me asking, what's your own view, Starglider? Your kind of the closest we have here to a right wing Briton, haha!

I've been fascinated by the total paralysis people I've been chatting with have had on the subject. None of us are particularly dense, but all feel that the Bullshitery from both campaigns has not given them confidence in either direction.

I suspect It's sadly going to go down to gut feeling in a few days.

[Eternal_Freedom]

Why does the Remain side bring up the EU as some sort of peacekeeper? Sure, there hasn't been a major European war since 1945, but I have a sneaky suspicion that much of that was nothing to do with the EU or it's predecessor but rather the fact that Europe was garrisoned by the two largest armies in the world, backed up by 60,000+ nuclear warheads for much of that time.

[Dartzap]

Probably because asking or expecting people to have an understanding of NATO at the same time is just asking to be ignored.