EDIT: Accidental double post, please delete the post above.
K. A. Pital wrote:Simon_Jester wrote:The problem is that by doing that, you don't have a valid conclusion about the US, you have a conclusion about the murderous parts of the US. And the same is true of Austria versus Vienna, or of any other country and its component parts. Saying "Americans kill each other at ahigher rate than people in Country X" is simply meaningless if what is really going on is that three quarters of Americans kill each other very rarely, but one quarter of Americans kill each other seven times faster than the corresponding quarter of Country-X-ians.
Because then the problem may not be that Americans have too many weapons or eat unwholesome cereal or something. The problem could be specific to how Americans as a whole deal with that minority in particular.
Asserting that all this detail collapses into "America is a dangerous country and Americans kill each other a lot" is oversimplifying things to the point where it becomes hard to make accurate predictions about the real world on the strength of the oversimplified model.
Why don't we have a valid conclusion about the US? Since when "murderous parts of the US" stopped being the US? Problem is, other nations have murderous parts too: but they are either less murderous or the other parts are more peaceful, so the average number turns out to be lower. Nations with a high average homicide rate are dangerous.
The problem is when you start trying to draw conclusions like "therefore, the US should enact more gun control at the federal level" or "therefore, no one should go to any place in the US."
The high murder rate in the US isn't actionable, useful information until it is disaggregated, analyzed, and treated as a bundle of separate facts. To understand how the US's murder rate affects you, you must understand where the murders are located, what triggers them, and so on.
This is equally true of crime in other countries, or for that matter any other aggregate trend that tries to take the average of a huge number of very dissimilar places and people.
I just don't understand the point of disagreement. You have a conclusion about the nation: either it is more dangerous overall or there are places which are extremely dangerous, while other places are just the same as elsewhere. But the by-state comparison provided here just recently doesn't show just a few outliers. It also shows that on the average, most US states have a higher homicide rate than Western European or industrialized Asian nations.
The US has worse race relations than industrialized Asian nations, and arguably worse than Western European nations. The US has worse poverty problems than most European nations due to an inferior welfare system. The US has drug problems that contribute to the crime problems.
The thing I'm trying to get at is that while in some rhetorical sense, "the US is dangerous" may be a claim consistent with the facts... As soon as you try to draw meaningful conclusions from that claim, you run into problems because it is a misleading statement even if it's true. It is a rhetorically strong statement, but a weak one for purposes of using reason and facts to learn the truth and seek solutions.
Back to the gun problem: homicide with a firearm is much easier than homicide with a gun. So a nation which has a high crime rate would not benefit from firearm accessibility - instead, it would simply have firearm homicides as being almost the norm, the default. On the other hand, a nation that has a low violent crime rate would not be affected by high rates of gun ownership as people are on the average far less likely to commit violent crimes like homicide; thus the necessity to control guns also decreases.
[/quote]The catch is that it is not obvious that restricting gun availability will lower a high crime rate, and that is the policy measure that's being debated in the US. Controlling the guns more effectively may simply result in gangs murdering each other with knives and crowbars, secure in the knowledge that no one is likely to pull a gun on
them.