Where do the EU and the UK go now?

[Tribble]

I figured that since the referendum is over and the UK has voted to leave, it might be useful to start a thread focusing on what comes next.

Where do you think the EU is headed? Some believe that the EU is inherently unworkable and the UK exit will simply kick off its eventual collapse. Others believe that the UK leaving could be the best thing to happen to the EU as it can continue its project of further integration without interference (or at least kick off some needed reforms). Which outcome is more likely? Or will the EU continue to muddle through?

Will the EU try to reform in order to reduce the risk of another country leaving, or will it try to maintain the status quo?

Will the EU try to punish the UK as much as possible in order to try and deter others from leaving, or will it try to create some kind of fair deal so that it doesn't come across as too spiteful?

As for the UK, where do you think they will be headed? Will they focus on trying to maintain ties to the EU or will they focus on strengthening ties with other countries like the US or Commonwealth?

Will Scotland and Northern Ireland try to separate (I think it's safe to rule out Wales since they voted in favour of Brexit)

How long do you think it will take for parliament to vote to leave? Is there a chance that it will be dragged out as long as possible, in the hope that the situation will change and the referendum could be disregarded?

[Dartzap]

Cameron has said that he's not the chap to do the deals on exiting, leaving it to his successor. That could take three months to get sorted. And then.... a General Election will probably take place to ensure whoever that is has a mandate to negotiate.

It'll all be over by Christmas......

[K. A. Pital]

Cameron said, but Jean-Claude Juncker demanded Britain to start negotiations now and not wait for October.

“Britons decided yesterday that they want to leave the European Union, so it doesn’t make any sense to wait until October to try to negotiate the terms of their departure,” Juncker said in an interview with Germany’s ARD television station. “I would like to get started immediately.”

[Crown]

Cameron said, but Jean-Claude Juncker demanded Britain to start negotiations now and not wait for October.

“Britons decided yesterday that they want to leave the European Union, so it doesn’t make any sense to wait until October to try to negotiate the terms of their departure,” Juncker said in an interview with Germany’s ARD television station. “I would like to get started immediately.”

And I would like Juncker to suck on an exhaust pipe of a running VW diesel car, but if wishes were horses ...

There will be no beginning of negotiations until the UK formally invokes Article 50. Cameron isn't going to ask for it, so we're all in a holding pattern until then.

[Tribble]

Hmmm. Technically speaking the referendum is non binding, especially if an election is called and a new government is formed.

If an election is called, a party campaigns on remaining in the EU then that party
wins the election, the referendum may not have to be followed. They could even win a majority with less than 50% do to first past the post, so it wouldn't be that hard to achieve a victory. So I'd say there's still a chance that the UK will stay if there is an election before the government acts to withdraw.

[Captain Seafort]

Hmmm. Technically speaking the referendum is non binding, especially if an election is called and a new government is formed.

Not fucking likely. Indeed, if Parliament tries that, the offenders might find themselves invited up to the palace to be read the riot act.

[Zaune]

There will be no beginning of negotiations until the UK formally invokes Article 50. Cameron isn't going to ask for it, so we're all in a holding pattern until then.

And that's going to make the rest of Europe inclined to be at all generous with free-trade agreements why, exactly?

[Starglider]

FX trading volume (cash and options) up by a factor of nine today, over the 12 month average. At least in the short term, it's a bonanza of flow trading premiums.

[The Romulan Republic]

Hmmm. Technically speaking the referendum is non binding, especially if an election is called and a new government is formed.

If an election is called, a party campaigns on remaining in the EU then that party
wins the election, the referendum may not have to be followed. They could even win a majority with less than 50% do to first past the post, so it wouldn't be that hard to achieve a victory. So I'd say there's still a chance that the UK will stay if there is an election before the government acts to withdraw.

I suppose the feasibility of that would depend on how many "Leave" voters are looking at the fall out now and saying "My God, what have I done?"

[Crown]

I figured that since the referendum is over and the UK has voted to leave, it might be useful to start a thread focusing on what comes next.

Where do you think the EU is headed? Some believe that the EU is inherently unworkable and the UK exit will simply kick off its eventual collapse. Others believe that the UK leaving could be the best thing to happen to the EU as it can continue its project of further integration without interference (or at least kick off some needed reforms). Which outcome is more likely? Or will the EU continue to muddle through?

I am firmly of the belief that the EU cannot function and continue the way it is now for much longer, certainly not the Eurozone. And I am neither opposed nor frightened by a federal, confederal or just loose trading block structure incarnation of the EU. But it has to have the correct governance for the correct structure for whatever incarnation it wishes to be.

Will the EU try to reform in order to reduce the risk of another country leaving, or will it try to maintain the status quo?

Hollande will be hoping it reforms, because if Le Pen gets her way and gets a Frexit vote Hollande will lose the way things stand now. They cannot continue this madness the way it is now. Fucking over Greece is one thing, watching the worlds 4th largest economy walk away is something completely different.

Will the EU try to punish the UK as much as possible in order to try and deter others from leaving, or will it try to create some kind of fair deal so that it doesn't come across as too spiteful?

Fair deal. Real politics comes into play here; the EU can fuck over Greece to an extent, it can't fuck over a UN Security Council permanent member who also happens to be Uncle Sam's bestest buddy in the whole wide world (without Uncle Sam giving it permission).

As for the UK, where do you think they will be headed? Will they focus on trying to maintain ties to the EU or will they focus on strengthening ties with other countries like the US or Commonwealth?

Nothing really changes.

Will Scotland and Northern Ireland try to separate (I think it's safe to rule out Wales since they voted in favour of Brexit).

No to Northern Island; as I mentioned in the other thread the desire for unification has never polled beyond the 20% range in the North, and the Republic of Ireland sure as hell can't afford it right now. Nothing really affects the Norther Irish that much anyway, it's always been the Republic's stance that everyone in the North is entitled to a Republic passport if they want it.

As for Scotland Nicola Sturgeon is not about to do a 'David Cameron' that is call for a referendum she could lose (a second one in her case). Oil is no longer at US $100 a barrel and the whole economic rationale behind the first referendum was based around the assumption it was. She's not an idiot. She'll wait and see for a while.

How long do you think it will take for parliament to vote to leave? Is there a chance that it will be dragged out as long as possible, in the hope that the situation will change and the referendum could be disregarded?

They all know they can keep this at arms length until Article 50 is invoked, but I don't think they can hold off too much beyond the Tory Conference in October. For better or worse.

[Sea Skimmer]

I am firmly of the belief that the EU cannot function and continue the way it is now for much longer, certainly not the Eurozone. And I am neither opposed nor frightened by a federal, confederal or just loose trading block structure incarnation of the EU. But it has to have the correct governance for the correct structure for whatever incarnation it wishes to be.

Agreed on most of that. The EU and Eurozone have never adapted to the failure of the Constitution treaty in the face of popular vote, and never respected what that rejection signaled concerning 'ever closer union' in the near term (aka waiting until all the voters who remember life was a thing before the EU are dead).Only in the last couple of months do I get the impression that any of the what the EU system pretends are on par with national leaders but really just heads of bureaucracy trying to acknowledge this seriously. Which was oh, about five years later then it should have been.

I thought the UK should stay, but only because change was going to be forced sooner or later anyway, and it would be better to wait for that point to make the in/out choice. Cameron as it was shouldn't have even bothered with his attempt to negotiate a new deal, it was started on too little time to be credible in the best of times and simple served as ammunition for leave.

[K. A. Pital]

Some food for thought.

Scotland voted to remain in the European Union, its first minister said on Friday (24 June) after the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU, reopening the issue of the region's independence.

”I will do all it takes to ensure these aspirations are realised,” Nicola Sturgeon said, adding that it was "democratically unacceptable" that Scotland "faces the prospect of being taken out of the EU against [its] will."

...

”It's a statement of the obvious that a second referendum [on Scottish independence] is on the table,” the first minister added.

"The Scottish government will begin to prepare the required legislation to enable a new independence referendum, if and when Parliament so decides."

Speaking to Euronews TV, the digital economy EU commissioner Gunter Oettinger said that "Scotland will leave the UK possibly".

"Afterwards it would be an independent country and if it fulfils our treaty conditions it would be possible for it to come back to the EU," he said.

Oh what a day! What a lovely day!

[Crazy_Vasey]

The UK is negotiating from a position of fundamental weakness. The EU can, at the cost of some pain, drive this country into the ground by erecting heavy tariff and regulatory barriers. A huge amount of our remaining manufacturing is for export to the EU (e.g. the Nissan plant in Sunderland). The City derives a big chunk of its income from Euro-denominated assets that they no longer have any real incentive to allow us to trade. And I don't even want to touch on how we've set every single fucking one of our existing trade agreements on fire the moment we actually exit or how our legal system is now basically in a state of 'eh, dunno' on tens of thousands of laws.

Worse, it's almost in their interests to inflict maximum damage to keep anyone else from leaving and we know from watching the last ten years of events that the EU leadership does not give a fuck how much it hurts smaller members when it needs to defend itself. They can't allow the UK to do too well after exit or others will follow.

Our best hope is that Merkel stays in control. She will seek a compromise and mutual benefit. If politics turn to vendettas and tit-for-tat, we are so badly fucked.

I am developing a distinct dislike of English people. And I'm English.

[TithonusSyndrome]

A second referendum is triggered via EU terms (still presently binding) regarding petitions and crisis is averted, or Labour campaigns on an explicit "referendums aren't binding" platform around October and, with the begrudging help of the Square Mile, achieves a de facto mandate from the British electorate to disregard the referendum as such. Either way, the status quo prevails on account of the many interests vested in it, with possibly some social democracy-esque concessions from London and Brussels.

I probably shouldn't say these things in an irresponsibly definitive tone, but at the very least these outcomes need to be contemplated.

[Tribble]

The UK is negotiating from a position of fundamental weakness. The EU can, at the cost of some pain, drive this country into the ground by erecting heavy tariff and regulatory barriers. A huge amount of our remaining manufacturing is for export to the EU (e.g. the Nissan plant in Sunderland). The City derives a big chunk of its income from Euro-denominated assets that they no longer have any real incentive to allow us to trade. And I don't even want to touch on how we've set every single fucking one of our existing trade agreements on fire the moment we actually exit or how our legal system is now basically in a state of 'eh, dunno' on tens of thousands of laws.

Worse, it's almost in their interests to inflict maximum damage to keep anyone else from leaving and we know from watching the last ten years of events that the EU leadership does not give a fuck how much it hurts smaller members when it needs to defend itself. They can't allow the UK to do too well after exit or others will follow.

Our best hope is that Merkel stays in control. She will seek a compromise and mutual benefit. If politics turn to vendettas and tit-for-tat, we are so badly fucked.

I am developing a distinct dislike of English people. And I'm English.

On the other hand that could just as easily backfire and instead of scaring other countries into submission it just fuels their desire to leave. Trying to use the UK as an example could play right into the Euroskeptics' hands.

A second referendum is triggered via EU terms (still presently binding) regarding petitions and crisis is averted, or Labour campaigns on an explicit "referendums aren't binding" platform around October and, with the begrudging help of the Square Mile, achieves a de facto mandate from the British electorate to disregard the referendum as such. Either way, the status quo prevails on account of the many interests vested in it, with possibly some social democracy-esque concessions from London and Brussels.

I probably shouldn't say these things in an irresponsibly definitive tone, but at the very least these outcomes need to be contemplated.

I agree and I think that's exactly what's going to happen provided the EU leaders keep their mouths shut about triggering article 50 asap. Of course, if that happens IMO the UK will be screwed even more than if they actually left since the EU will almost certainly try to punish them as much as possible for daring to hold a referendum and voting against their wishes.

[Simon_Jester]

Hmmm. Technically speaking the referendum is non binding, especially if an election is called and a new government is formed.

Not fucking likely. Indeed, if Parliament tries that, the offenders might find themselves invited up to the palace to be read the riot act.

If a general election is held in the next month or two, Leave/Remain is going to be the single greatest issue in the election. No one will be winning any races for Parliament in the British Isles without their position on the Leave/Remain issue being very firmly known by the electorate.

If, after such an election occurs, the Government refuses to carry out the referendum's instruction to Leave, I would argue that this represents the will of the British electorate having spoken- specifically by overriding their own previous instruction.

[Dartzap]

The Lib Dem leader claims that if they win the now-inevitable-election, they intend to ignore the result of the referendum. Which sounds like a suicide note from Tim Farrons career.

[Captain Seafort]

If a general election is held in the next month or two, Leave/Remain is going to be the single greatest issue in the election. No one will be winning any races for Parliament in the British Isles without their position on the Leave/Remain issue being very firmly known by the electorate.

It would be the greatest single issue, but a individual's vote in a General Election is inevitably defined by a combination of factors. The referendum was a single-issue yes or no question that cut across party lines and produced a clear, indisputable result. The fact that there were strong Leave results in places where a donkey could get elected if it had an appropriately-coloured rosette shows that party affiliation or preference has little to no relevance.

Of course, the fact that all the major party leaders have been explicitly saying that out is out, both before and after the referendum, settles the issue.

[BabelHuber]

The UK is negotiating from a position of fundamental weakness. The EU can, at the cost of some pain, drive this country into the ground by erecting heavy tariff and regulatory barriers. A huge amount of our remaining manufacturing is for export to the EU (e.g. the Nissan plant in Sunderland).

My thoughts exactly.

As far as I know, a lot of foreign investment has occured in GB's manufacturing industry during the last 10-15 years. Not only from Japanese corporations like Nissan, but also from Koreans like Kia and Hyundai. Add the new plants from automotive suppliers, and there was a considerable amount of investment going on.

These companies wanted to invest mainly in the EU, but chose GB as their region of investment. While tehy won't close their plants immediately, I assume that most new investments will be on hold right now. As long as there is no new contract between GB (or what will remain after Scotland has succeeded) and the EU, not much new investment will occur.

Of course there are exceptions, like BMW's Rolls Royce plants or VW's Bentley plants - these cars are very expensive anyways, and customers are used to paying a premium. But for volume models like Mini, it already looks different.

On the other hand, countries like Poland or Hungary are also attractive places for investments in manufacturing, and they don't seem to be intended to leave in the foreseeable future.

So the Brits should hurry up to negotiate trade agreements with the EU, waiting seems counter-productive to me.

Much worse is the situation in the city of London - offices can be more easily relocated to Frankfurt or Paris compared to manufacturing plants. European banks which invested heaviliy in London are already being punished by the stock market, if I remember correctly the stock of the Deutsche Bank had a 15% hit on Friday already.

So these companies will have to react, which can only hurt the city of London.

Schäuble already has stated that there is not much need to punish GB for the BREXIT to make a point, since the negative side-effects will be visible quite soon anyways, without the EU doing anything.

I think this very well may become true.

[Crazedwraith]

The Lib Dem leader claims that if they win the now-inevitable-election, they intend to ignore the result of the referendum. Which sounds like a suicide note from Tim Farrons career.

Why is general election now considered inevetible?

Bevause the new PM will be considered 'unelected'?

[Zaune]

Why is general election now considered inevitable?

Because the new PM will be considered 'unelected'?

That and their already rather small majority, yeah.

[Tribble]

The Lib Dem leader claims that if they win the now-inevitable-election, they intend to ignore the result of the referendum. Which sounds like a suicide note from Tim Farrons career.

Why is general election now considered inevetible?

Bevause the new PM will be considered 'unelected'?

And they won't need a majority of the votes to do it either, all they'd need to do is get enough seats with/without another Remain party as a coalition partner to prevent parliament from invoking article 50. It wouldn't be hard for them to do that either, especially as the Tories may split over this issue and UKIP will further split the right wing vote. You could easily have a situation where with just 35% of the vote the Liberal Democrats manage to win enough seats to undo the referendum.

For those in the Remain camp who want the referendum undone simply because you do not like the results, would you be comfortable with a minority government with a minority of the votes ignoring a referendum where the majority voted to leave? Do you think that "for the greater good" is a valid excuse for ignoring the will of the electorate when the rules on the referendum were clear? If that happens, do you think it will be a one-off, or will the government start using that as a an excuse for all sorts of things even more than they do now?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

About as comfortable as ~35% of the electorate actually voting to take us out of the EU... oh, wait.

[jwl]

Yes, why are people here taking about an early general election? I'm not aware of any politician even mentioning the issue.

[Crown]

The Lib Dem leader claims that if they win the now-inevitable-election, they intend to ignore the result of the referendum. Which sounds like a suicide note from Tim Farrons career.

Why is general election now considered inevetible?

Bevause the new PM will be considered 'unelected'?

And they won't need a majority of the votes to do it either, all they'd need to do is get enough seats with/without another Remain party as a coalition partner to prevent parliament from invoking article 50. It wouldn't be hard for them to do that either, especially as the Tories may split over this issue and UKIP will further split the right wing vote. You could easily have a situation where with just 35% of the vote the Liberal Democrats manage to win enough seats to undo the referendum.

For those in the Remain camp who want the referendum undone simply because you do not like the results, would you be comfortable with a minority government with a minority of the votes ignoring a referendum where the majority voted to leave? Do you think that "for the greater good" is a valid excuse for ignoring the will of the electorate when the rules on the referendum were clear? If that happens, do you think it will be a one-off, or will the government start using that as a an excuse for all sorts of things even more than they do now?

Who the hell would trust the LibDems on anything now? They reached their zenith on a single pledge which they promptly reneged on the moment they got to sit at the big table. Although, if Campaign Leave are getting cold feet, it might be a blessing for them.

About as comfortable as ~35% of the electorate actually voting to take us out of the EU... oh, wait.

Stop being so salty, less than that voted to take you in it in 1975 (Wiki source)!

Having said that though, the one thing I would love to know is voter turn out as a breakdown of age group. There wasn't any data collected for the Referendum but social media ( I know) was passing this around. Which if true (and it probably isn't, but it amuses me to think it is) then the young weren't 'robbed' by angry old white people; the ME-llennial generation confused updating Facebook status with actually, you know, turning up to vote.