Game of Thrones Season 6 [Discussion of most-recently aired episodes]

[NecronLord]

Aside from lances in jousts, I don't think any particularly long weapons appear in the series. Can anyone find a picture of these long westerosi spears that are going to wreck the Unsullied?

I'd eyeball them at around 16 feet or so, but perhaps they're even longer. It stands to reason that they'd be longer than the standard lance that a knight would use, as that was the whole point of pike formations. Unfortunately, I don't think we've ever seen proper heavy cavalry outside of jousting tourneys(the knights of the Vale seemed to be using normal spears, rather than lances, in their charge).

Those guys will not wreck the Unsullied because they are dead. Lost Technology does not count on SDN.


More seriously, we probably won't see them again because normally it's not necessary to visually explain pikes to the audience - you won't see them again unless they need to explain that again for the sake of the story. And if it becomes necessary the audience understands pikes, they are just as likely to appear in Unsullied hands - because literally until that shot, House Bolton didn't have them either. That's the nature of TV production.

Here's bolton men carrying the standard 'fits in a transit van' shortspear.

If they want to show a decisive advantage again, then pikes will appear perhaps. And if they want to show the unsullied are more skilled than westerosi peasant levies, you might well see them in unsullied hands. The books show no evidence that the Unsullied are so poorly endowed in the spear department compared to the Westerosi. No dialogue says it. Saying 'the unsullied aren't pikemen' based on visual evidence from the show is as valid as saying House Bolton aren't pikemen based on visual evidence from seasons one to five through to episode 9 of season 6.

Neither production nor text has actually attempted to convey the notion that spears are longer in Westeros. You may as well try argue that characters will lose arms because their armour doesn't cover their arms properly - drawing a story prediction from props limitations is, well, silly. It's like trying to work out which side will win the war based on the footmen armours that are clearly designed to be as different as practical so that the audience can tell them apart (which is bloody useful and not something I am criticizing).

[NecronLord]

Additional:

There's some northern pikes in the background of the last episode on the Stark side in several shots (I shall now proceed to imagine that's the 62 Bear Island men) - almost like they're brought the more difficult props out to the location and decided to use them as required - but we never saw the Starks stamping the Lannisters into the ground with the push of pike with consummate ease, which frankly, they would.

Though I suppose that would actually explain how Tywin kept losing to Robb and if the Starks had pikes and their enemies did not (and for some reason haven't copied them) then really the odds were always grossly in their favour and Roose really should have stuck with Robb and pushed on to Kings Landing and given Joffrey to Ramsay as a plaything.

Now if people were saying that Westerosi armour gave an advantage - that I could get behind, because there's dialogue for that. ("In their iron suits!")

[Simon_Jester]

I'll say this. Pikes give an advantage over more normal infantry under certain conditions, but not under all conditions. There's a reason the Spanish, the German landsknecht, and for that matter the Roman legions, all cultivated sword-using infantry as a counter to pikes- although to be fair, I'm pretty sure all of them had pikes of their own.

So even if Robb had some trained pikemen, it wouldn't guarantee his victory over the Lannisters even if that specific pike block were tactically invincible. For one, it would only be one invincible unit in an army of less dominant ones. For another... well, we already know Robb could win every battle and still lose the war, because that's essentially what happened.

Mostly because hasn't House Tyrell explicitly allied themselves with Dany in a bid for revenge against the Lannisters? House Tyrell literally isn't going to survive much longer at least in their current ruling branch, some other arm will soon be taking over so the old lady is literally going "Fuck it, down with the Lannisters" and is supporting Dany. Dany, last I checked literally has two major regions to safely land her troops, one of them a huge breadbasket of Westeros.

Exactly. And while circumstances may limit Olenna Tyrell's ability or willingness to continue supplying food, I doubt that she will ever realistically stop and say "no, no more help for you." Especially not after allying with Daenerys to destroy all other remaining threats to the new queen's power base in Westeros, at which point betraying her would be folly.

[Esquire]

Anyway - skipping over what's clearly a filming issue (pikes vs. shortspears), there's support for King's Landing being able to get a lot of food from the sea; in a deleted scene, Tywin Lannister and Grand Maester Pycelle (rest in... well, rest, anyway, the both of them) are chatting by the seashore. Tywin's been fishing with a handheld rod from shore, apparently not for very long, and has caught a giant basketful of fish; imagine what a full fishing fleet can do in waters that rich.

[ArmorPierce]

To consolidate my predictions on the main plot points that will occur in the show:

1. Little finger makes a move against Jon to take Winterfel, perhaps with the unintended help of Sansa. He does this to attempt to execute on his agreement with Cersei and to become Warden of the North.
2. Jamie's story is a story of redemption. He will kill Cersei (his love) as he had killed the mad king before her.
3. Daenerys allies with Jon Snow against Little Finger and the Night King
4. Now this is where it becomes a bit more murky in my mind. Either Jon or Jamie will Azor Ahai reborn. Both have Targaryen blood as Tywin had mentioned previously that the have some Targaryen blood in their family tree, so no repeat of who's the real daddy is necessary. Daenerys is any other potential runner for the hero but she will not be. Tyrion is also not going to represent the 3rd head of the dragon. Together they (Daenerys, Jon, and Jamie) constitute the three headed dragon. One of the wo will die and/or one will take the ice throne... because there must always be a Lich King... err, I mean Night King. Who ever is the hero reborn dies or becomes the new Night King or some other kind of deal such as that.
5. If Jon dies or becomes the new Lich King, Sansa becomes Lady of Winterfel, and Bran marries Daenerys and joins her on the Iron throne... assuming he doesn't just grow into a tree like the previous three-eyed raven. I am REAALY hoping she does not marry Jamie, but that's within the realm of possibility.
6. Daenerys and her husband will rule over Westeros and will usher a new era of peace and prosperity with women being in control of most of the great houses - Daenerys Targaryen , Olenna Tyrell, Ellaria Sand, Sansa Stark, Yara Greyjoy.

I am eager to see how this plays out!

[Alferd Packer]

If they want to show a decisive advantage again, then pikes will appear perhaps. And if they want to show the unsullied are more skilled than westerosi peasant levies, you might well see them in unsullied hands. The books show no evidence that the Unsullied are so poorly endowed in the spear department compared to the Westerosi. No dialogue says it. Saying 'the unsullied aren't pikemen' based on visual evidence from the show is as valid as saying House Bolton aren't pikemen based on visual evidence from seasons one to five through to episode 9 of season 6.

There's plenty of visual and textual evidence: the Unsullied carry large shields. Pikemen in general, and the specific pikemen we have seen, do not. Every shot of the Unsullied we have seen shows them using shields in combat. Every description of them fighting in the books, save moving the battering ram on Meereen's front gate, mentions their shields. Now, granted, we haven't seen them in a set-piece battle yet, but we have seen them deployed in large formations, and those large formations show them with their 8-9 foot spear and shield every time. The shield is the critical evidence, as you cannot wield a two-handed pike and a large shield. You either have a mixed formation where someone else carries a large shield(like we saw in the Bolton army), you strap a small buckler to your arm(like Macedonian phalanxes), or you eschew it entirely in favor of armor(like pike/halberdier formations of medieval Europe).

[NecronLord]

Please show evidence of the unwieldy size of Unsullied shields? Quotes.

Because my mental image of them has always been hoplites or Macedonians - what with them being based on the lockstep legions of Old Ghis, the ancient-Greece expy - and pike wielders given their supposed effectiveness against horses.

Shields weren't used with early modern pikemen of the sort you're imagining because they were in general decline throughout Europe for a number of reasons, one of which is very much inapplicable to Planetos.

[MKSheppard]

Seen this?

https://medium.com/migration-issues/wes ... .7vnelwus8

[NecronLord]

Seen this?

https://medium.com/migration-issues/wes ... .7vnelwus8

I like his commentary a lot, though he is wrong about Lord of the Rings - there is a population in Arnor in the 3rd age, it is however, orcs, trolls and suchlike. "Down down in Goblin Town!"

[Alferd Packer]

Please show evidence of the unwieldy size of Unsullied shields? Quotes.

Because my mental image of them has always been hoplites or Macedonians - what with them being based on the lockstep legions of Old Ghis, the ancient-Greece expy - and pike wielders given their supposed effectiveness against horses.

Shields weren't used with early modern pikemen of the sort you're imagining because they were in general decline throughout Europe for a number of reasons, one of which is very much inapplicable to Planetos.

In ASoS, when Dany is being told about the 3000 of Qohor by...Jorah, I think? He explains how the the 3000 Unsullied "locked shields, lowered spears", and fought the Dothraki. Locking shields was the style of a Greek phalanx, where a portion of your shield overlapped the body of the man to your left, as you were overlapped by the man to your right. Macedonian phalanxes relied on the overwhelming length of their spears (between 14 and 18 feet, depending on the source) to project out up to five full rows of spearpoints before you reached the first row. The bucklers they had were strapped to their arms and were too small to cover other men in the formation adequately.

Anyway, the Unsullied shields on the show aren't unwieldy--in fact, they're smaller than they should be for fighting in a Greek phalanx-style formation. But, they are large enough that they fully occupy one arm, and therefore preclude the use of both that particular shield and a two-handed weapon like a long spear or pike.

[Simon_Jester]

Seen this?

https://medium.com/migration-issues/wes ... .7vnelwus8

Any thoughts on my response to your math, Shep?

[NecronLord]

Please show evidence of the unwieldy size of Unsullied shields? Quotes.

Because my mental image of them has always been hoplites or Macedonians - what with them being based on the lockstep legions of Old Ghis, the ancient-Greece expy - and pike wielders given their supposed effectiveness against horses.

Shields weren't used with early modern pikemen of the sort you're imagining because they were in general decline throughout Europe for a number of reasons, one of which is very much inapplicable to Planetos.

In ASoS, when Dany is being told about the 3000 of Qohor by...Jorah, I think? He explains how the the 3000 Unsullied "locked shields, lowered spears", and fought the Dothraki. Locking shields was the style of a Greek phalanx, where a portion of your shield overlapped the body of the man to your left, as you were overlapped by the man to your right. Macedonian phalanxes relied on the overwhelming length of their spears (between 14 and 18 feet, depending on the source) to project out up to five full rows of spearpoints before you reached the first row. The bucklers they had were strapped to their arms and were too small to cover other men in the formation adequately.

Not sure if you're talking about the macedonians or the unsullied there; in any case the macedonians under Alexander certainly used both shield and sarissa with the shield strapped comparatively far up the arm.

Anyway, the Unsullied shields on the show aren't unwieldy--in fact, they're smaller than they should be for fighting in a Greek phalanx-style formation. But, they are large enough that they fully occupy one arm, and therefore preclude the use of both that particular shield and a two-handed weapon like a long spear or pike.

As mentioned, I regard the tactical details of the show's props as effectively non-canonical. They're severely limited by the ambition of the production; you can see this when the Boltons mysteriously gain pikes despite never having ever ever had anything like a pike before and no one comments. Deriving a limitation on unsullied equipment from what the actors in the show carry - even for future episodes of the show - will steer you wrong. Just as one episode ago you would have said 'No Bolton owns a pike' if you went by show props.

In the books, no one, including an experienced combat veteran and commander, ever suggests the weakness of 'these are really short shitty spears, these slave soldiers will be squashed if you take them to Westeros Khaleesi,' so expecting that GRRM or D&D will write that in is not reasonable.

[MKSheppard]

My math is pretty crude Simon; I just realized at work that well, livestock...eat too. So we'd have to calculate what percentage of the food crops are diverted to them.

But I'm really not too emotionally invested in the math; just as long as it gets people thinking about the position Westeros is in for this coming WINTER.

At 1600 calories (average Frenchman's food intake in the 1700s), the half million of King's Landing are going to need 800 million calories/year; or about 260+ short tons (235 metric tons) of wheat/year.

1 cubic meter (m3) of wheat is about 0.79 metric tons; so 235 metric tons (one year's worth of food for King's Landing) is about 300 cubic meters. Figure a five year-supply is maintained at any one time for safety -- anything past that is met by thinning rations.

That's about 1,500 m3.

There's a pretty good way to estimate storage space for this -- salt barns for winter storms, since rock salt is 1.28 metric tons per cubic meter, or 1.6~ times more dense than bulk grain.

http://merithall.com/salt-capacity-calculator/

Looks like a 50 x 100 foot building with 10 foot high walls can store 2,000 short tons (1,814 mt) of road salt in a volume of 1,400~ m3 -- this would work out to about 1,100~ metric tons of bulk grain.

So it looks feasible for even a large city such as King's Landing to have (reasonably) compact food supplies.

But I don't know how to calculate losses to rats and spoilage, since a lot of this stuff would have been in storage for what, five years at the least by the time winter arrives; and with so much of the stuff, there would be great opportunities for corruption by Royal Granarists selling off "spoiled" grain during the summer years.

This also could help explain why the "lords" such as the Starks, Tyrells, Walders, Arryns and their subordinates such as the Mormonts, Karstarks, etc have so much status; because it could very well be that the castles aren't just for warfare, but also serve as granaries to distribute food from during the winters -- we do know that Winterfell has some pretty deep dungeons, as does King's Landing.

Of course, this discounts the heating fuel needed to simply survive during a winter and to cook foods...

I don't think GRRM did think though the implications much of winters possibly lasting half a decade...

[Napoleon the Clown]

We're left with no option other than to assume that they're way ahead of the curve when it comes to food storage, in this setting. Otherwise there's no way they could survive a literal five year winter. Unless winter in the setting has periods where it gets less horribly cold, at least enough to have crops growing close-ish to the equator. There are places far enough south that they could well grow crops that are generally more inclined toward northern latitudes during the winter.

[Alferd Packer]

Not sure if you're talking about the macedonians or the unsullied there; in any case the macedonians under Alexander certainly used both shield and sarissa with the shield strapped comparatively far up the arm.

Right, but that shield was small compared to the aspis the Greek phalangites used. It was a shield that was carried by skirmisher infantry, either javelineers or slingers, to protect themselves from projectiles, but allow them retain their mobility. A Macedonian phalangite would indeed have the shield strapped to his arm above the wrist, so that he could freely wield his pike with both hands.

As mentioned, I regard the tactical details of the show's props as effectively non-canonical. They're severely limited by the ambition of the production; you can see this when the Boltons mysteriously gain pikes despite never having ever ever had anything like a pike before and no one comments. Deriving a limitation on unsullied equipment from what the actors in the show carry - even for future episodes of the show - will steer you wrong. Just as one episode ago you would have said 'No Bolton owns a pike' if you went by show props.

But I would've been right, until the evidence contradicted me. I'm not going to say that the Unsullied cannot have a big-ass pike as one of their three spears, but until we see them, I will say that they don't have a big-ass pike.

In the books, no one, including an experienced combat veteran and commander, ever suggests the weakness of 'these are really short shitty spears, these slave soldiers will be squashed if you take them to Westeros Khaleesi,' so expecting that GRRM or D&D will write that in is not reasonable.

But until such time as their performance is shown, we can infer based on past capabilities their future potential. Against Dothraki? No problem, as long as their flanks are secured or the Dothraki or too idiotic to flank them. Against Westerosi knights? In the show, no one uses long lances, so they'll probably be wanked to heights of success. In the books, heavy cavalry is mentioned to use lances, so the Unsullied would probably take and inflict heavy losses until they started out-ranging the knights of Westeros with some longer spears.

[Guardsman Bass]

I don't think GRRM did think though the implications much of winters possibly lasting half a decade...

I think he's mentioned that there are "spirit summers" and "false springs" amidst the Winters, where temperatures get warmer and it might be possible to grow some crops quickly. And for most of Westeros, the Winters aren't that bad - they get a lot of snow and cold in the North and mountains of the Vale, but only some snow in the Riverlands and Westlands, rare snow in the Reach (the most populous part of Westeros by far), and virtually no snow in Dorne, the Stormlands, or Oldtown.

All that said, I have no idea how any serious plant life survives north of the Wall. It's cold even in the Summers.

[Simon_Jester]

The fact that plants do survive suggests that a lot of Westeros plants may be better adapted to cold than their earthly counterparts, even if nominally of the same species. This implies that there may be crops like winter wheat that can be sown (at least south of the Neck) and continue surviving and growing during the winter season.

[Kingmaker]

We're left with no option other than to assume that they're way ahead of the curve when it comes to food storage, in this setting. Otherwise there's no way they could survive a literal five year winter. Unless winter in the setting has periods where it gets less horribly cold, at least enough to have crops growing close-ish to the equator. There are places far enough south that they could well grow crops that are generally more inclined toward northern latitudes during the winter.

Fans have made valiant efforts to reconcile the apparent difficulties inherent in a medieval society enduring decade-long winters without everyone starving to death. The most sensible theory I've seen is that Westeros still has a regular cycle of seasons, and Summer/Winter are long-term trends, with Winter being akin to a mini ice age and Summer being an extended warm spell. This jives with Ned's comment in AGoT about summer snows in the north (winter in Summer) and with major fighting occurring in Winter (unlikely if everyone is ass-deep in snow).

[FaxModem1]

Now, supposedly, Winterfell has huge green houses that the Starks, before they were killed off, used in the winters to provide a food supply. Now, I don't know how they keep the plants alive during the long winter when it becomes the Long Night, and there's no sun for months, but it would provide a way for them to keep them alive for long periods.

[GuppyShark]

Seen this?

https://medium.com/migration-issues/wes ... .7vnelwus8

This is great.

"I don’t trouble over the absurdly small scale of warfare in Star Wars compared to the size of the galactic population and economy because, um, if I wanted realism I wouldn’t be watching Star Wars."

[NecronLord]

But until such time as their performance is shown, we can infer based on past capabilities their future potential. Against Dothraki? No problem, as long as their flanks are secured or the Dothraki or too idiotic to flank them. Against Westerosi knights? In the show, no one uses long lances, so they'll probably be wanked to heights of success. In the books, heavy cavalry is mentioned to use lances, so the Unsullied would probably take and inflict heavy losses until they started out-ranging the knights of Westeros with some longer spears.

We'll see if the books ever get that far; perhaps. Or perhaps, as I'm saying, you're simply imagining the Unsullied with short spears based on the show and Martin actually imagines they are what he presents them as - amazingly disciplined infantry that is excellent at fighting cavalry.

Or they might all get caught in a storm and drown, a-la the Spanish Armada.

[Simon_Jester]

My math is pretty crude Simon; I just realized at work that well, livestock...eat too. So we'd have to calculate what percentage of the food crops are diverted to them.

But I'm really not too emotionally invested in the math; just as long as it gets people thinking about the position Westeros is in for this coming WINTER.

It's some good math, seriously. The only real miscalculation (as opposed to a logical conclusion drawn from your own results) are that you may have overlooked an important rule of traditional agriculture in temperate climates: you slaughter as much livestock as necessary in the fall to ensure your herd (and your family) will still be alive in the spring.

Given that in this world horses, cattle, and so on can easily grow to adulthood multiple times over during a spring/summer/autumn cycle, it is likely that livestock are routinely culled back to very minimal levels during the winter in much of Westeros. There is probably a boom/bust cycle in play.

So it looks feasible for even a large city such as King's Landing to have (reasonably) compact food supplies.

But I don't know how to calculate losses to rats and spoilage, since a lot of this stuff would have been in storage for what, five years at the least by the time winter arrives; and with so much of the stuff, there would be great opportunities for corruption by Royal Granarists selling off "spoiled" grain during the summer years.

Realistically it wouldn't be that compact, and you need lots of guarding and organization and logistics, and there has to be some amount of air space so that people can physically inspect the granaries and so that if a tiny amount of water gets in it doesn't undetectably soak into the bottom and turn the whole granary into a swamp or something. But, yes, if you have grains that keep that long, storing massive quantities of grain is just not that hard.

This also could help explain why the "lords" such as the Starks, Tyrells, Walders, Arryns and their subordinates such as the Mormonts, Karstarks, etc have so much status; because it could very well be that the castles aren't just for warfare, but also serve as granaries to distribute food from during the winters -- we do know that Winterfell has some pretty deep dungeons, as does King's Landing.

Of course, this discounts the heating fuel needed to simply survive during a winter and to cook foods...

Definitely an issue.

I don't think GRRM did think though the implications much of winters possibly lasting half a decade...

No, he didn't, although he also spelled out that they usually don't last that long.

[Elheru Aran]

Given that in this world horses, cattle, and so on can easily grow to adulthood multiple times over during a spring/summer/autumn cycle, it is likely that livestock are routinely culled back to very minimal levels during the winter in much of Westeros. There is probably a boom/bust cycle in play.

A thought:

Depending on area-- obviously this probably wouldn't work in warm regions like Dorne, which appear to not be harshly affected by the winters in exchange for being basically desert-- you could make a case for keeping your meat animals until the temperatures start dipping below freezing, then slaughtering them en masse and using the environment itself as a refrigerator. Keep a few for breeding stock, and when you need some meat for the pot, just go outside and grab a haunch off the clothes-line, so to speak.

Not only would it permit them to not bother using grain/hay to feed the animals, they would be able to preserve the meat with minimal expenditure.

[Elfdart]

This also could help explain why the "lords" such as the Starks, Tyrells, Walders, Arryns and their subordinates such as the Mormonts, Karstarks, etc have so much status; because it could very well be that the castles aren't just for warfare, but also serve as granaries to distribute food from during the winters -- we do know that Winterfell has some pretty deep dungeons, as does King's Landing.

Of course, this discounts the heating fuel needed to simply survive during a winter and to cook foods...

I don't think GRRM did think though the implications much of winters possibly lasting half a decade...

The first strongholds in the real world were built to protect food and livestock as much as to defend people from marauders (man and beast). The one who controlled the fort, controlled the food and thus controlled the people. This does kinda mesh with the world Martin created, with unpredictable and long seasons. Those huge fortresses undoubtedly include vast stores. Even Sam's father lives in a gigantic castle that makes the Tower of London look like a taco stand:

LINK (02:17 mark)

Another property of all those thick stone/brick walls: insulation from the cold. I'd also assume that chopping wood, mining coal, drying cowshit and cutting peat are all common tasks in a world where winter might last years at a time, but are not depicted on a TV show for obvious reasons. Ditto for shearing sheep and spinning wool.

[Elfdart]

But until such time as their performance is shown, we can infer based on past capabilities their future potential. Against Dothraki? No problem, as long as their flanks are secured or the Dothraki or too idiotic to flank them. Against Westerosi knights? In the show, no one uses long lances, so they'll probably be wanked to heights of success. In the books, heavy cavalry is mentioned to use lances, so the Unsullied would probably take and inflict heavy losses until they started out-ranging the knights of Westeros with some longer spears.

We'll see if the books ever get that far; perhaps. Or perhaps, as I'm saying, you're simply imagining the Unsullied with short spears based on the show and Martin actually imagines they are what he presents them as - amazingly disciplined infantry that is excellent at fighting cavalry.

Or they might all get caught in a storm and drown, a-la the Spanish Armada.

That's what I was thinking: some combination of Euron and storms at sea like the Protestant Wind or Kamikaze to put a dent in Danerys' fleet. Otherwise her forces, combined with the Reach, Dorne and whatever might be left of the Storm Lands will just steam roll through the Lannisters, who are fresh out of allies.