The 2016 US Election (Part III)

[TithonusSyndrome]

The smartphone intervention might actually create some blowback if it can be spun into a sign of weakness. "Trump can't handle access to a smartphone! His campaign staff has him whipped!"

[Elheru Aran]

At the end of the day it may be 45%, maybe even 40% that eventually vote for him

Ah, but how much of the 60-55% that's left will be voting for Clinton?

Strictly anecdotal, but judging from my Facebook feed that's rife with selection bias (well not really but that's an issue with using FB feeds to indicate public opinion) a significant fraction are interested in voting third party this time around.

Is there any realistic reason to assume that Johnson (let's not even bother with Stein, even the third-partiers don't particularly take her seriously) is going to draw enough of the vote, at all, to offset a potential Clinton win?

[TithonusSyndrome]

Johnson was booed at the LPA convention for reaffirming that there should be some manner of government certification required to drive a truck. I mention this to comment on how little he inspires his party's base, but it says more about LPA voters than anything.

[Elheru Aran]

Johnson was booed at the LPA convention for reaffirming that there should be some manner of government certification required to drive a truck. I mention this to comment on how little he inspires his party's base, but it says more about LPA voters than anything.

Amusing sidenote: Googling that brought out a bunch of results for Little People of America, and I had to picture Johnson being booed by a crowd of midgets.

Oy.

'Libertarian Party of Alabama', of course. Well... it's Alabama. What do you expect?

[Flagg]

At the end of the day it may be 45%, maybe even 40% that eventually vote for him

Ah, but how much of the 60-55% that's left will be voting for Clinton?

Strictly anecdotal, but judging from my Facebook feed that's rife with selection bias (well not really but that's an issue with using FB feeds to indicate public opinion) a significant fraction are interested in voting third party this time around.

Is there any realistic reason to assume that Johnson (let's not even bother with Stein, even the third-partiers don't particularly take her seriously) is going to draw enough of the vote, at all, to offset a potential Clinton win?

Why? He is a libertarian. As in "keep yer Guvmint out of mah everything! The only people Johnson will attract are stupid republicans. Smart ones will be voting Clinton or just won't vote for president at all.

[Mr Bean]

Johnson votes are a combination of Bernie holdouts, Republicans who won't vote Trump and can't stand Clinton. Oh and Libertarians all 2% of them of which .5% bother voting.

[maraxus2]

Rasumssen has always been terrible and it tends to get worse each election cycle no my point was more towards the trend lines being more concrete over time the swings less wild from week to week with less 5-10 point jumps in either direction. Or it could be we are starting to hit peak shitty polls when all Americans fed up about being polled about the Presidental election they already don't like start introducing non-controllable noise into the polling process.

We are at about 1 week post conventions and hillary is up by between six-ten points lets call it eight for simplicity sake and see if August 20th she still up by eight or has advanced up the polling ladder or fallen down it. The only other significant big polling movers are the debates which per 538 mark the second big official "okay the majority of Americas are paying attention to the campaign" milestone the first being the conventions.

I'd love to disagree with you, but I honestly have no idea what you're arguing.

I may have updated my signature because of this, look at it from my prospective. If you win you get the satisfaction of being right, if I win I get some hard core boot eating youtube action to put on the old death highlight real that plays as my life flashes before my eyes. Not that I disagree with you but still watching a grown adult human being eat boots because they were wrong is a special kind of joy.

Whatever it takes to get you through the day, dude.
In less shit-posty news, Clinton's pausing her ad buys in another swing state, for similar reasons as she did in Colorado.

Clinton pauses ads in Virginia in sign of confidence
By STEVEN SHEPARD 08/04/16 03:56 PM EDT
Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign has left Virginia off its upcoming battleground-state television ad buy beginning next week — the second state to be dropped in recent weeks as Clinton holds a significant lead over Donald Trump nationally and in key states.

The campaign’s new television ad buy, which begins next Tuesday, consists of Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The reservations, which could easily be amended in the future, run through Labor Day.

The decision reflects increasing confidence among Democrats that Clinton will keep Virginia, a state that had been expected to be bitterly contested, in the blue column this fall. The pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA is scaling back its Virginia ad campaign later this month, as well.

It comes just two weeks after Colorado fell off the list of states comprising Clinton’s ad reservations — and Colorado isn’t part of the new flight, either. Priorities USA recently scrapped its Colorado ads, too.

POLITICO’s Battleground State polling average gives Clinton a 5.2 point lead in Virginia — with the two newest public surveys, conducted last month, before Clinton chose Sen. Tim Kaine as her running mate, showing her with leads of 7 points and 9 points over Trump.

A Clinton campaign official, speaking on background to discuss campaign strategy, stressed that the campaign could return to the airwaves in both Virginia and Colorado at any moment. And the official added that voters in those two states may still see some Clinton spots on television: The campaign is advertising across the country on cable and on NBC’s Olympics telecasts over the next two weeks.

Trump’s campaign has yet to begin a TV ad campaign in the general election, despite a concerted effort to close the gap with Clinton in fundraising.
“With ads still on the air and organizers and volunteers in every corner of the commonwealth, the campaign remains committed to fighting hard until Election Day to win every last vote in battleground Virginia,” the official said, referencing the national campaigns on cable and Olympic programming.

Republicans carried Virginia in 10 consecutive presidential elections, starting in 1968 — before Barack Obama broke that streak in 2008 and held its 13 electoral votes in 2012.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-sta ... z4GPZ3sefu
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

[Mr Bean]

Rasumssen has always been terrible and it tends to get worse each election cycle no my point was more towards the trend lines being more concrete over time the swings less wild from week to week with less 5-10 point jumps in either direction. Or it could be we are starting to hit peak shitty polls when all Americans fed up about being polled about the Presidental election they already don't like start introducing non-controllable noise into the polling process.

We are at about 1 week post conventions and hillary is up by between six-ten points lets call it eight for simplicity sake and see if August 20th she still up by eight or has advanced up the polling ladder or fallen down it. The only other significant big polling movers are the debates which per 538 mark the second big official "okay the majority of Americas are paying attention to the campaign" milestone the first being the conventions.

I'd love to disagree with you, but I honestly have no idea what you're arguing.

Lemme help you a spell since my dialect is all confuddling to ya'l self
Kin Hillary Clinton maintain thet ten point lead o' is this hyar t'other tempo'ary poll bubble thet won't last a week like all th' previous Trump bad weeks. Like th' fust week of June when Hillary "destroyed" Trump only fo' th' polls t'show them tied less than two weeks later. Is this hyar t'other tempo'ary corndishun o' signs of permanent damage?

Can Hillary Clinton maintain that ten point lead or is this another temporary poll bubble that won't last a week like all the previous Trump bad weeks. Like the first week of June when Hillary "destroyed" Trump only for the polls to show them tied less than two weeks later. Is this another temporary condition or signs of permanent damage?

[maraxus2]

Can Hillary Clinton maintain that ten point lead or is this another temporary poll bubble that won't last a week like all the previous Trump bad weeks. Like the first week of June when Hillary "destroyed" Trump only for the polls to show them tied less than two weeks later. Is this another temporary condition or signs of permanent damage?

So far it looks like it's sustaining. It's been a week and her post-convention bounce has been getting bigger, not smaller. And given that Trump still isn't running a campaign, this is probably doing permanent damage to Trump's campaign. You can't just make up ground game a month before the election.

And your dialect is fine. It's your stubborn refusal to use punctuation or proper grammar that makes your posts difficult to read.

[Flagg]

I'm from the South and can manage to make legible posts. I think Bean just hates spellcheck.

[Grumman]

Why? He is a libertarian. As in "keep yer Guvmint out of mah everything!

No, that's anarchism. It's the LPA who are not being true to the title, not Gary Johnson.

[maraxus2]

Why? He is a libertarian. As in "keep yer Guvmint out of mah everything!

No, that's anarchism. It's the LPA who are not being true to the title, not Gary Johnson.

This happened at the Libertarian National Convention, which was full of Libertarian Party activists and true believers. Are they not being true to the title, as opposed to the opportunist ex-Republican Governor who had limited libertarian leanings when he was Governor?

[Flagg]

Why? He is a libertarian. As in "keep yer Guvmint out of mah everything!

No, that's anarchism. It's the LPA who are not being true to the title, not Gary Johnson.

This happened at the Libertarian National Convention, which was full of Libertarian Party activists and true believers. Are they not being true to the title, as opposed to the opportunist ex-Republican Governor who had limited libertarian leanings when he was Governor?

I love being right. Don't you love being right maraxus?

[Dalton]

I read about the smartphone thing on TPM editor Josh Marshall's feed, but doing a google search for "trump smartphone" should turn up plenty of hits. And yeah, I would absolutely believe it.

[maraxus2]

I love being right. Don't you love being right maraxus?

Especially when it's about a dickhead like Gary Johnson. Johnson talks a big game about being onboard with criminal justice reform and becoming more lenient on drug use and yadda yadda yada. In reality, Johnson was a really right-wing governor who only started having second thoughts about the War on Drugs after he won his 1998 re-election campaign (side-note: why do these right-wing libertarians seem to have their Road to Damascus moments on criminal justice reform after they leave office?). But he wants to legalize pot and go back to a pre-Pearl Harbor foreign policy, so I guess that's enough for some dimwitted Sanders supporters.

[Ziggy Stardust]

I read about the smartphone thing on TPM editor Josh Marshall's feed, but doing a google search for "trump smartphone" should turn up plenty of hits. And yeah, I would absolutely believe it.

A quick Google news search doesn't bring up much of anything about it. The closest is a weird fictional essay in the New Republic about Trump if he won the election, and his children taking his smartphone. But I can't find any real news stories mentioning this.

[Flagg]

Why? He is a libertarian. As in "keep yer Guvmint out of mah everything!

No, that's anarchism. It's the LPA who are not being true to the title, not Gary Johnson.

No, anarchists want no government while libertarians want everything privatized and a tiny government that just controls the army.

[Simon_Jester]

The smartphone intervention might actually create some blowback if it can be spun into a sign of weakness. "Trump can't handle access to a smartphone! His campaign staff has him whipped!"

Also "if his own staff can't trust The Toupee with a Twitter account, how can we trust him with nuclear launch codes?"

[Flagg]

The smartphone intervention might actually create some blowback if it can be spun into a sign of weakness. "Trump can't handle access to a smartphone! His campaign staff has him whipped!"

Also "if his own staff can't trust The Toupee with a Twitter account, how can we trust him with nuclear launch codes?"

I think the Clinton camp if not Hillary herself said "If he freaks out on Twitter would you trust him with his hand on the button?"

[FireNexus]

Clinton said it in her speech. "Someone you can bait with a tweet shouldn't have nuclear codes."

[Flagg]

I apologize to Flagg for saying he called Bernie Sanders a traitor. He never did.

I missed this. I appreciate it very much and commend you for being honest about it. I know a mod told you to, but I'm going to assume you did so of your own volition. Trust me, I know how hard it can be to come out and say you're sorry, I've had to enough.

[Elheru Aran]

When the fucking Nazis endorse you...

The leader of the American Nazi Party said on his radio show that a Trump presidency would be a great victory and a “real opportunity” for white nationalists to expand and build their coalition in the United States.

BuzzFeed’s Andrew Kaczynski posted audio on Saturday night of American Nazi Party Chairman Rocky Suhayda declaring that a win for Trump is a win for racist whites.

“I believe that Trump is going to win the election this November, for various reasons which I don’t want to go into again,” Suhayda said in July. “I think it’s gonna surprise the enemy, because I think that they feel that the white working class — especially the male portion of the working class — and with him his female counterparts have basically thrown in the towel. Given up hope of any politician again standing up for their interests.”

“Now, if Trump does win, okay, it’s going to be a real opportunity for people like white nationalists, acting intelligently to build upon that, and to go and start — you know how you have the black political caucus and what not in Congress, and, everything, to start building on something like that,” he continued.

“It doesn’t have to be anti-, like the movement’s been for decades, so much as it has to be pro-white. It’s kinda hard to go and call us bigots, if we don’t go around and act like a bigot. That’s what the movement should contemplate. Alright,” he concluded.

Kaczynski noted that in the past, Suhayda has avoided publicly endorsing Trump because he didn’t want to compromise the Republican nominees chances in the polls.

In 2015, the Nazi chairman wrote on his website, “We have a wonderful OPPORTUNITY here folks, that may never come again, at the RIGHT time. Donald Trump’s campaign statements, if nothing else, have SHOWN that ‘our views’ are NOT so ‘unpopular’ as the Political Correctness crowd have told everyone they are!”

He went on, “But, and here’s the kicker — so WHAT do we DO — sit back and heartily congratulate ourselves that our viewpoints are NOT the pariahs that we have been told that they are, and get all warm and fuzzy feeling OR, do we FINALLY get SERIOUS about what we are supposed to be engaged in.”

[U.P. Cinnabar]

Is that an endorsement or a drunken rant?

[Iroscato]

Is that an endorsement or a drunken rant?

For twits like this I think the two go hand-in-hand.

I look forward to Trump's immediate and vehement rejection of such supporters - hahah, I can't even type that out with a straight face.

[Elheru Aran]

It's possible he might just ignore them.

...who are we kidding.