The 2016 US Election (Part III)

[Elheru Aran]

All they're doing is tracking current trends. *CURRENT* trends.

Trumpkins, for all his wrong-headedness, has a powerful talent for commanding attention.

Clinton, by comparison, is a little... frankly... boring. She's a solid, sound (by most points of view anyway) politician, but she's not loud, arrogant, nasty and brutish.

And the fact of the matter is that right now we're in a bit of a news lull. The big deal right now is police/race issues thanks to recent shootings, and unfortunately for the Democrats, that's one of Trump's favorite subjects, so he gets to blow a bunch of hot air about it whenever he stumps. So he gets more play.

Honestly? He gets more play in general out of how awful he is. Go to any news site of your choice; odds are good something like 80% of the political articles are going to be about Trump from one direction or another.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, a hell of a lot is certainly hinging on the debates, isn't it?

Edit: the self-destructive stupidity of it all is just disgusting, though. I could almost wish a little taste of fascism on the Trump voters so that they get a taste of what real oppression is, but the thing is... fascism doesn't generally come in small doses, and once you go far enough down that road, its very hard to reverse course.

[Simon_Jester]

The huge amounts of free news coverage are helping Trump because it means everyone who would ever consider voting for him is constantly thinking about him. This boosts his poll numbers by a few percent. Because by contrast, many people who would consider voting for Clinton only hear about her in the context of media outlets parroting "don't you think she looks tired" or whatever.

Well, a hell of a lot is certainly hinging on the debates, isn't it?

On the debates, and on there being more to the election than the horse race coverage. When the election is treated like a horse race with minimal consequences, it tends to level out the numbers.

What is really needed is a massed, coordinated barrage of every major fraud, cheat, and lie Trump's ever committed. I really hope Clinton is planning to unload that on the media some time in the 4-6 weeks right before the election, because otherwise I don't know what the heck her campaign finance funds are even paying for.

[Elheru Aran]

Note this: 538 only gives Trump an over 50% chance for victory *now*. We have only about a month and a half, less than that really, before the election. Trump's been in the horse-race since, what, last summer?

Expect the numbers to be all over the place for the next few weeks. They might firm up a bit before the election, but frankly... wait until the night of November 8th.

[Simon_Jester]

Yeah. If the election were held now Trump might, maybe, actually have a 50/50 chance of winning. Maybe.

But the election won't be held today, and everyone on both sides knows that. So the real question is, which side has a stronger end game? Does Trump even have an end game beyond "keep doing what I'm already doing?" Does Clinton have an end game aimed at beating Trump?

[The Romulan Republic]

The problem is that the direction of the polls seems to be in Trump's favour. He is gaining ground, and Clinton is losing ground. The longer that goes on, the weaker she will appear, the more demoralized her supporters will be, and the further she will have to climb, and the less time she will have to do it.

She needs to reverse the trend fast.

[Elheru Aran]

I mean, I get it. It's okay to be worried. Trump is a colossal load of manure walking around in an expensive bad suit.

But the fact of the matter is that this election hasn't been a very predictable one at all, and the political environment right now is very volatile. Expect a lot of back and forth. Expect one day's poll to not stand the night. Expect further salvos of publicity, soundbytes, analyses, rounds of denunciation, and so forth.

Certainly keep up with what's going on... but don't start freaking out until Election Day, if you see the map starting to swing the wrong way. Because that's the only day that really matters right now.

[got ninja'd by RR but why not reply to that]

I suspect Clinton is going to unload a pretty good blast against Trump-- probably several-- during the debate, and after the first debate, the real knife-fighting is going to start. Attack ads and all that.

Or rather, that's what I hope for...

[muse]

In more important matters, where is Mr Bean, and what are the rules for the drinking games during the Clinton vs. Trump debate?

[U.P. Cinnabar]

In more important matters, where is Mr Bean, and what are the rules for the drinking games during the Clinton vs. Trump debate?

Save your liquor and don't watch the debates.

[FireNexus]

What is really needed is a massed, coordinated barrage of every major fraud, cheat, and lie Trump's ever committed. I really hope Clinton is planning to unload that on the media some time in the 4-6 weeks right before the election, because otherwise I don't know what the heck her campaign finance funds are even paying for.

IMO, Clinton is playing like she has an October Surprise of gigantic proportions. I'd be willing to bet that the child rape suit that got withdrawn "to be resubmitted with a new witness" is a lot more damning than it now looks, Clinton has the inside on it, and there are plans to resubmit with a media blitz a week or two before the election.

[Gaidin]

What is really needed is a massed, coordinated barrage of every major fraud, cheat, and lie Trump's ever committed. I really hope Clinton is planning to unload that on the media some time in the 4-6 weeks right before the election, because otherwise I don't know what the heck her campaign finance funds are even paying for.

IMO, Clinton is playing like she has an October Surprise of gigantic proportions. I'd be willing to bet that the child rape suit that got withdrawn "to be resubmitted with a new witness" is a lot more damning than it now looks, Clinton has the inside on it, and there are plans to resubmit with a media blitz a week or two before the election.

That'd be awesome proof of the Clinton Empire conspiracy theory if she could keep a prosecutor with a willing witness from not only filing until October but withdrawing the case before then.

[SolarpunkFan]

All they're doing is tracking current trends. *CURRENT* trends.

Trumpkins, for all his wrong-headedness, has a powerful talent for commanding attention.

Clinton, by comparison, is a little... frankly... boring. She's a solid, sound (by most points of view anyway) politician, but she's not loud, arrogant, nasty and brutish.

That's the problem though, she's boring. People stopped giving a shit about actual policy decades ago. Loud and brutish is what wins now.

As for the current trends thing, I'm going to be pessimistic until the day after the election. No one went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public after all.

[Iroscato]

Fucking hell.

fivethirtyeight's Nowcast has Trump at over 50% chance of victory for the first time.

Polls only and Polls plus still give Clinton a slight edge.

What the fuck is wrong with these dip shits? Do they actually want everyone who isn't an alt Right white heterosexual American Christian man to be stripped of their civil liberties? Or are they buying the mindless swill that "Oh, he won't really be that bad, it couldn't possibly happen here, Congress will control him despite aiding and abetting him and the Tea Party at every turn for years"?

You might want to stop checking 538, by the looks of it it's gonna play havoc with your blood pressure.

[Simon_Jester]

The problem is that the direction of the polls seems to be in Trump's favour. He is gaining ground, and Clinton is losing ground. The longer that goes on, the weaker she will appear, the more demoralized her supporters will be, and the further she will have to climb, and the less time she will have to do it.

She needs to reverse the trend fast.

Debateable. A month of "Oh my god, DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN!?" might, for example, cause large numbers of black and Hispanic voters to turn out, more than we currently expect. I work in a very, very African-American community, and I've got high school freshmen spontaneously comparing Trump to Hitler without prompting.

There are a huge number of things that could happen to reduce Trump's odds to far below 50%, and a lot of them can easily be made to happen if Clinton isn't stupid.

That's the problem though, she's boring. People stopped giving a shit about actual policy decades ago. Loud and brutish is what wins now.

As for the current trends thing, I'm going to be pessimistic until the day after the election. No one went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public after all.

There's a lot of scam artists doing five to ten in the federal pen who'd disagree with you, kid.

[FireNexus]

That'd be awesome proof of the Clinton Empire conspiracy theory if she could keep a prosecutor with a willing witness from not only filing until October but withdrawing the case before then.

No prosecutor. It's a civil suit. And it wouldn't be hard for someone to be convinced to pull and resubmit in order to do maximum damage to their rapist.

[Gaidin]

That'd be awesome proof of the Clinton Empire conspiracy theory if she could keep a prosecutor with a willing witness from not only filing until October but withdrawing the case before then.

No prosecutor. It's a civil suit. And it wouldn't be hard for someone to be convinced to pull and resubmit in order to do maximum damage to their rapist.

Not that I ever believed it. More me going WTF. But if it's a civil suit I'll withdraw it. That's me not knowing all the details.

[aerius]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-2 ... hts-debate



If they're going to post a warning for the probable debate contents, I'd say they're guilty of negligence for leaving a fuckton of shit off the list.

[Mr Bean]

In an unrelated note if you want Wifi in the hall it's 200$. The FCC has said this is super illegal

But funny enough they are still fighting that ruling you can't set up Wifi jamming equipment.

[Mr Bean]

Also 15 minutes into the debate talking points V talking points, about the only interesting thing is Trump is being 100% fuuuuuck you Clinton he's all but belittling her I'm guessing to try and get her to snap.

Angry Hillary is very bad for Hillary, she does anger poorly.

[Gaidin]

But funny enough they are still fighting that ruling you can't set up Wifi jamming equipment.

What this?

[Mr Bean]

On another note thank you Reddit committers, either Trump is down with some allergies who he did a few lines of coke before coming on stage how much he was sniffing.

Note the above is not true.
Much like what Donald is saying on stage, saying things he literally said on tape were not true.

This is exactly as much of a shit show as predicted.

*Edit
Gaidin per the news media they are literally using jamming equipment at a Presidential debate. Trust me they don't care.

[Mr Bean]

On another note Secretary Clinton take the credit take the blame, it looks like Trump worked hard to memorize all the blame.

OAN, Hillary is also going dismissive. Both of these people obviously hate each other, any attempts at high minded statesperons by Secretary Clinton have been abandoned and Trump came out insulting from the beginning.

I'm shocked to say I'm not even sure I can watch this. Trump is doing nothing but shitting himself on stage and Clinton is reading fucking talking points like she's not on stage with a crazy person.

[Mr Bean]

Switching the various streams, Cenk is literally face palming, like he's rolling around like he's watching a six hour long cringe video.

[Gaidin]

How desperate was an appeal to MacArthur? To wit, not even watching, just listening while surfing.

[muse]

I'm shocked to say I'm not even sure I can watch this. Trump is doing nothing but shitting himself on stage and Clinton is reading fucking talking points like she's not on stage with a crazy person.

Have you started the drinking games yet? I think a few rounds should improve matters nicely.