The 2016 US Election (Part III)

[Iroscato]

"Social justice must be destroyed?"

Did that translate correctly? Because if so...good grief.

[Patroklos]

These various info dumps on both sides prompted some gamesmanship discussion between my wife and I. Given the speed at which information travels, how much of the populous is comfortable using multiple media devices simultaneously, and the ubiquity of mass media publishing tools how long until someone drops one of these bombs during the debate? The debaters don't have comms with their surrogates once on stage, so when will an opponent bring up something like the current Trump video that a campaign can't be specifically aware of, announces the link for the audience to see, and the conversation moves on with one debater and the audience knowing what the exact outrage is but the target having no idea?

Seems like it could be pretty devastating on live TV. The target would either have to try and guess what the exact issue is and in the process either show his ignorance of it or expose something else entirely, or declare ignorance of something that is scandal worthy for the rest of the debate. Just sitting there onstage in the dark about what the audience just found out about them.

[The Vortex Empire]

Could we please split off this social justice discussion into another thread, kinda off topic.

[The Romulan Republic]

Actually, I'd say its somewhat relevant insofar as Trump's support is, to some extent, a backlash against the idea of social justice for women and minorities.

[maraxus2]

Snip first half of post

Oh fuck off. Of all the injustice in the world, you're going on about people getting mad on the internet over a fucking shirt? Brendan Eich getting fired for contributing to Yes on Prop 8 gets you mad? Do you have any idea how obtuse you sound?

I have no idea why you would want to make piddly shit like this your last stand, but it's dumb as hell. If all the justification you have for "Vox Day, avowed white nationalist and weirdo internet Nazi, has a point" is, respectively, some dipshit losing his job over supporting an odious cause, people on the internet getting mad about a shirt, and stupid university drama, you really ought to re-evaluate what's important in life.

Re: Eich, the man should have been thrown out on his ass long before his Prop 8 donations were made known. But I'm glad it got him in the end. I voted against Prop 8 in my first election. Several of my friends worked on the No on 8 Campaign for LA County. Eich donated to a campaign that was utterly cruel, and painted Gay people as sexual predators who wanted to hurt children. If you feel the need to defend him, be my guest. But you're very much not on the side of the angels here.

That's what you're not getting. I support both of those things, but I reject the methods the self-styled "Social Justice" crowd is using to attempt to achieve them, because in many cases it would result in replacing one set of injustices with another. You can lift people up without pushing other people down.

I don't believe you. Nor do I think there's any particular reason to believe you. You're quoting an essay that depicts alt-right dickheads as victims of oppression, people who need a guide on how to "survive" an "attack" by "SJW's", presumably women and people of color. It happens to be written by a guy who has said, among other things, that maybe white people need to secede from the US because of "the infestation of even the smallest American heartland towns by African, Asian and Aztec cultures, and engage in ruthless doublethink as [liberals] worship at the altar of a false and entirely nonexistent equality." This is the worldview from which springs that idiotic essay. An essay that you think is "right" and "has a point" because you disagree with what some "SJWs" do.

This "you're either 100% with us or you're against us" nonsense is the worst sort of political tribalism.

Damn straight. I feel pretty good about the fact that my tribe doesn't let weird internet Nazis into our wigwam.

[maraxus2]

Now that Zontarg's weak shit has been dispensed with, let's get back to the subject matter at hand. Namely the rats fleeing from the burning ship that is Trump's candidacy:

Lewd Donald Trump Tape Is a Breaking Point for Many in the G.O.P.
By JONATHAN MARTIN, ALEXANDER BURNS and MAGGIE HABERMANOCT. 8, 2016

WASHINGTON — The Republican Party began abandoning Donald J. Trump on Saturday after the release of a video showing him speaking of women in vulgar sexual terms, delivering a punishing blow to his campaign and plunging the party into crisis a month before the election.

Fearing his candidacy was on the verge of undermining the entire Republican ticket next month, a group of senators and House members withdrew their support for him on Saturday, with some demanding that he step aside. Foremost among them was Senator John McCain of Arizona, the party’s 2008 nominee.

“I thought it important I respect the fact that Donald Trump won a majority of the delegates by the rules our party set,” Mr. McCain said in a statement. “But Donald Trump’s behavior this week, concluding with the disclosure of his demeaning comments about women and his boasts about sexual assaults, make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy.”

And in an unheard-of rebuke to his own running mate, Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, declined to appear on Mr. Trump’s behalf at a party gathering in Wisconsin and offered him something of an ultimatum on Saturday afternoon.

Mr. Pence said in a statement he was “offended by the words and actions described by Donald Trump” in the video, and cast Mr. Trump’s second debate with Hillary Clinton, on Sunday, as an urgent moment to turn around the campaign.

“I do not condone his remarks and cannot defend them,” Mr. Pence said, adding, “We pray for his family and look forward to the opportunity he has to show what is in his heart when he goes before the nation tomorrow night.”

In a 2005 recording obtained by The Washington Post, Donald J. Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, talks about women in vulgar terms to Billy Bush, then the host of “Access Hollywood.”

By midday, no fewer than 21 Republican members of Congress and governors who had backed Mr. Trump disavowed his candidacy, an unprecedented desertion by the institutional Republican Party of its own standard-bearer.

Aides described Mr. Trump as shaken, watching news coverage of the video with a mix of disbelief and horror. Shortly after midnight, he released a videotaped statement, saying: “I’ve said and done things I regret, and the words released today on this more than a decade-old video are one of them.”

In a brief telephone interview on Saturday, he shrugged off the calls to leave the presidential race, saying he would “never drop out of this race in a million years.” He added that no Republican leaders or officials — including Mr. Pence — had suggested to him that he rethink his candidacy.

“I haven’t heard from anyone saying I should drop out, and that would never happen, never happen,” Mr. Trump said. “That’s not the kind of person I am. I am in this until the end.”

Far from sounding rattled, Mr. Trump insisted that he believed he could still win in November.

“Oh yeah we can win — we will win,” he said. “We have tremendous support. I think a lot of people underestimate how loyal my supporters are.”

Mr. Trump said that he was going ahead with preparations for Sunday night’s debate, and that he had not decided whether to make a public appearance later Saturday or on Sunday morning to address his remarks about women. He added that he did not feel rattled by the fierce criticism over his comments.

“I’m doing fine — focusing on the debate, getting ready, focusing on talking to voters,” Mr. Trump said. “I’ll be fine.”

A couple of hours later, the campaign released a statement from his wife, Melania. “The words my husband used are unacceptable and offensive to me,” she said. “This does not represent the man that I know.”

“I hope people will accept his apology, as I have, and focus on the important issues facing our nation and the world,” she said.

But the situation had grown so dire that many in the party were all but pleading with him to withdraw and let Mr. Pence serve as the party’s standard-bearer. On Saturday afternoon, Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the chairman of the Republican conference, became the senior-most Republican to call on Mr. Trump to end his bid and make way for Mr. Pence.

The exodus began late Friday night when a handful of Utah Republicans who said they would support Mr. Trump indicated that they no longer could tolerate their own nominee. Mr. Trump has long faced bitter resistance in the Mountain West, in large part because he is deeply disliked by Mormon voters.

But it was not until a pair of conservative women, Representatives Barbara Comstock of Virginia and Martha Roby of Alabama, implored Mr. Trump to withdraw that the momentum picked up and previously timid Republicans stepped forward to reject Mr. Trump’s candidacy.

Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire was the first Republican facing a competitive re-election this year to say she would no longer back Mr. Trump, announcing in a statement that she would write in Mr. Pence for president instead.

“I’m a mom and an American first, and I cannot and will not support a candidate for president who brags about degrading and assaulting women,” she wrote on Twitter.

Ms. Ayotte was joined just hours later by Representative Joe Heck of Nevada, one of the party’s prized Senate candidates and until recently a favorite to win the seat now held by Senator Harry Reid, the Democratic minority leader who is retiring at the end of his term.

It was an admission that Mr. Trump now posed an immediate threat to their own candidacies and that, to have any chance to survive, they had to risk angering his ardent supporters.

The video released on Friday showed a bus that had Mr. Trump aboard, and included an audio recording of him privately bantering with other men.

Mr. Trump, then newly married to Melania, crassly boasted about groping women’s genitalia, vulgarly commented on their bodies and generally described women as sex objects who could not resist his advances.

In his video statement released just after midnight Saturday, Mr. Trump said: “Anyone who knows me knows these words don’t reflect who I am. I said it, I was wrong, and I apologize.”

“I pledge to be a better man tomorrow and will never, ever let you down,” he added, before ending the message with a promise to bring up the sex scandals of Bill Clinton’s presidency and Hillary Clinton’s response to them.

Inside Trump Tower, though, Mr. Trump’s defiant public responses belied the reality of a 24-hour period in which he was alternately angry and distressed, according to two people with direct knowledge of his behavior, who were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Mr. Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, initially expressed skepticism upon hearing word that such an audiotape existed, saying those comments didn’t sound like him. When Mr. Trump heard the tape played, he acknowledged it was him, but he had believed the fallout would not be dramatic.

Mr. Pence, however, whose steadfast conservatism and mild demeanor make him a softener for the abrasive and erratic head of the ticket, was dismayed, and called into Trump headquarters Friday night to urge Mr. Trump to apologize.

On Saturday morning, after monitoring cable television coverage over a 12-hour period, Mr. Trump realized he was becoming isolated by his party.

His children were described as jolted with concern, and uncertain about how to advise their father to go forward in a political landscape they do not entirely understand.

The campaign itself had become an isolated bubble. Mr. Trump’s aides closed down contact even with party leaders.

They did not explicitly ask top advisers and allies outside the campaign to do their usual defense of Mr. Trump’s comments, according to one person briefed on the discussions, but they did ask people to stand strong by his side.

So far, however, none of Mr. Trump’s most ferocious defenders — Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani — had spoken in support of him.

Mr. Giuliani and Mr. Christie arrived at Trump Tower around noon for planned debate preparation sessions.

Meanwhile, leading Republicans demanded that the Republican National Committee itself abandon Mr. Trump and turn its attention to salvaging other candidates down the ballot.

Representative Charlie Dent, a Pennsylvania Republican, said the Republican National Committee, which has been helping the Trump campaign financially and organizationally, should no longer “defend the indefensible.”

He called on Reince Priebus, the party chairman, to force Mr. Trump off the ticket — or face the consequences.

“The chairman of the R.N.C. must look out for the good of the party as a whole, so he should be working to get him to step down,” Mr. Dent said. “If he can’t, then he should step down.”

The committee remained silent Saturday as members of Congress began fleeing from Mr. Trump, not responding to press inquiries and, senior Republican officials said, not coordinating with other campaign organizations.

However, one senior Republican official said Mr. Priebus was deeply distressed and was headed to Trump Tower early in the afternoon to talk to the nominee.

Meanwhile, powerful donors and business interests signaled that they would redirect their attention to down-ballot candidates. Republican power brokers had hoped until recently that Mr. Trump might make a credible showing in the presidential elections, aiding the party in its other key races.

But Republicans now say that their worst fears have come to pass, as Mr. Trump has unraveled in a series of staggering missteps following his first debate with Mrs. Clinton.

Even before Mr. Trump’s 2005 comments came to light, internal Republican polling showed him rapidly losing ground among three groups that had long been wary of his candidacy: independents, women and voters with college degrees.

That slide is likely to accelerate now, Republicans said, potentially sending voters fleeing toward Democrats or convincing them to simply stay home on Nov. 8 Either outcome would be ruinous for Republican candidates beyond the presidential race.

Fred Malek, an influential Republican donor who is the finance chairman of the Republican Governors Association, said Mr. Trump’s comments had been “beyond disgusting” and were likely to harm other Republicans. Mr. Malek said candidates and lawmakers should be free to repudiate Mr. Trump if they believed it was necessary.

“It will be difficult in the extreme for him to recover from this, but the biggest impact is likely to be its effect on all the down-ballot races,” Mr. Malek said. “If they pull the plug on support for Trump, the vast majority of voters will certainly understand that and most will respect it.”

Link.

Nor would it be possible to remove Trump from the ballot. Trump is already on the printed CA ballots, which will start going out on Tuesday. They have burned their boats, and are now stuck with a nominee who is on tape describing sexual assault

[Dragon Angel]

I suspect a number of them have been waiting for something like this, thanks to his big mouth blatantly alienating his key supporters, but they hadn't dared to because of being perceived as pursuing a petty vendetta. Look at how Cruz was received at the RNC as an example.

Buuut now, the time for them to dig themselves by their paws out passed six feet ago.

[maraxus2]

So far, four vulnerable/semi-vulnerable incumbents have "rescinded" their endorsements of Trump, said that they will not vote for him, or have called for him to drop out of the race. They are:
- Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL), probably the single most vulnerable Republican running for re-election this year.
- Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), running in an extremely close race against Dem. Governor Maggie Hassan.
- Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), noted Trump-hater who is looking less vulnerable every day.
- Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), formerly vulnerable Senator who is looking less and less vulnerable each day.

So far, five vulnerable/semi-vulnerable incumbents have declined to say much of anything about Trump. They are:
- Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), tied with Kirk for most vulnerable Republican running for re-election. Looking more like a dead man walking every day
- Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), an increasingly vulnerable NC Republican contending with an aggressive Hillary campaign in his home state, along with a strong Dem challenge to the incumbent Republican Governor, Pat McCrory
- Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), the man we all know and love
- Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO), increasingly vulnerable MO Gov, who represents a conservative state but sucks so much that he might lose. Like Burr, he also faces a hot Gubernatorial election that could potentially drive up turnout.
- Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA), another increasingly vulnerable Senator sitting in a swing state facing a strongish Dem challenge.

One candidate seeking an open seat is likewise disavowing Trump, including:
- Rep. Joe Heck (R-NV), seeking Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid's Senate seat in one of the most expensive elections to date.

So far, none of the vulnerable governors or gubernatorial candidates have declined to endorse Trump. As of this writing, the total number of high profile (read: Govs, Senators, and Members of Congress) to disavow Trump is 41.

[FireNexus]

I love this election.

[Iroscato]

I love this election.

It really snuck into dad's Special Drawer and started lighting up the strong shit, didn't it?

[maraxus2]

I love this election.

It really snuck into dad's Special Drawer and started lighting up the strong shit, didn't it?

I hate it. I am so very ready for it to be over

[Q99]

Condi Rice has state she won't vote for or support him.

I hate it. I am so very ready for it to be over

Just one month!

[Q99]

Prove or concede.

I concede, yeesh!

I think you forget that I haven't read the beginning of your posts by the time you're writing to the end, let alone stated heartfelt opposition. I had read information that gave me one impression, it was wrong.

[K. A. Pital]

Prove or concede.

I concede, yeesh!

I think you forget that I haven't read the beginning of your posts by the time you're writing to the end, let alone stated heartfelt opposition. I had read information that gave me one impression, it was wrong.

Good. Now we can go back to discussing Hillary as an almost-certain next president. Because nobody is going to elect the miserable asshole known as Trump now, and it looks like Repubs are collapsing totally with Trump.

[Broomstick]

Gods I hope so. But, knowing the kneejerk stupidity of my fellow citizens I won't rest easy until after election day. The only poll that really counts is the one taken on the second Tuesday of November.

[Q99]

The Columbus Dispatch joins the list of 'Republican papers endorse a Democrat for the first time in a century.'

And rumor has it that Trump is instructing his surrogates to go after the Republicans renouncing support. Really hope this is true!

[K. A. Pital]

Gods I hope so. But, knowing the kneejerk stupidity of my fellow citizens I won't rest easy until after election day. The only poll that really counts is the one taken on the second Tuesday of November.

It's not just the polls alone... looks like he is becoming rapidly an "impossible candidate" even among his own. A candidate without a party is not going to win. That last scandal with groping looks very much like the last nail in the coffin.

Trump made remarkable comebacks before, but this time... I think, game over.

[Lord Revan]

Gods I hope so. But, knowing the kneejerk stupidity of my fellow citizens I won't rest easy until after election day. The only poll that really counts is the one taken on the second Tuesday of November.

It's not just the polls alone... looks like he is becoming rapidly an "impossible candidate" even among his own. A candidate without a party is not going to win. That last scandal with groping looks very much like the last nail in the coffin.

Trump made remarkable comebacks before, but this time... I think, game over.

while I'm another outsider (I'm a citizen of the Republic of Finland) I have to agree with this estimate, while it's not 100% impossible for Trump to loose until the election is over, it doesn't seem like he could recover enough to win this time. Trump's major problem at least from an outsider's prespective seems to be his inability to not say something monumentally stupid at the worst possible time.

[Knife]

I'm not ready to call it yet, though I'm hopeful. Those die hards will vote for him no matter what, the libertarians, teabaggers, racists. What will be more interesting this coming week is if the money men dry up his cash stream. If that happens, he is done. To early to tell though.

[Crazedwraith]

I'm not ready to call it yet, though I'm hopeful. Those die hards will vote for him no matter what, the libertarians, teabaggers, racists. What will be more interesting this coming week is if the money men dry up his cash stream. If that happens, he is done. To early to tell though.

I thought he was self-financing?

[The Vortex Empire]

So before these latest revelations have affected the polls, at 538 Trump is sitting at 22.9% on polls-plus, 18.7% polls only. Wonder just how low he can go.

[Q99]

Here's an interesting one- The last breath from the Religious Right

Children of divorce don’t want to divorce when they grow up. Instead, as Moore said, they give up marriage altogether. Similarly, younger evangelicals who came of age under the Religious Right don’t want to risk their souls in a reach for power. As a result, many will give up politics altogether. They may give up a lot more in the process, if they conclude their elders can’t be trusted at all in the wake of Trump’s campaign with its overt and implicit misogyny and racism.

Hypocrisy is not about failing to live up to your standards. Hypocrisy is about teaching something you don’t actually believe.

The younger Evangelicals are being turned off politics by the hypocrisy of the older ones in supporting Trump, in the writer's view.

[Knife]

I'm not ready to call it yet, though I'm hopeful. Those die hards will vote for him no matter what, the libertarians, teabaggers, racists. What will be more interesting this coming week is if the money men dry up his cash stream. If that happens, he is done. To early to tell though.

I thought he was self-financing?

LOL, I'm assuming your being sarcastic but no.

[Q99]

It's not just the polls alone... looks like he is becoming rapidly an "impossible candidate" even among his own. A candidate without a party is not going to win. That last scandal with groping looks very much like the last nail in the coffin.

Trump made remarkable comebacks before, but this time... I think, game over.

The real question is is whether/how much of the House and Senate he drags down with him.

Because it's the double-punch. Moderate GOPs are demotivated and likely to stay home. Meanwhile, *Trumpites* are likely be mad at the establishment Republicans and not vote downballot for so many abandoning him.

[The Romulan Republic]

So before these latest revelations have affected the polls, at 538 Trump is sitting at 22.9% on polls-plus, 18.7% polls only. Wonder just how low he can go.

I'm waiting for the five percent Now-cast and the ten percent Polls-only.

Especially if he gets creamed again tonight. Which, realistically, he will.

Edit: And I'm glad to see that the Democrats' chances of winning the Senate have gone up again a bit.