The 2016 US Election (Part III)

[Q99]

I wish it was, but very unlikely even if Trump loses by a landslide, thanks to the Democrats being completely asleep at the wheel in 2010 when the Republicans used the REDMAP project to gerrymander the entire nation.

Meanwhile, the diehard right wing reactionaries hope to hold on to the Senate so that they can keep blocking any SCOTUS nominees by Hillary the same way they've been blocking Merrick Garland for the past nine months. I would love to see Democrats sweep the full board and then ram through a lot of necessary legislation that the Rethuglicans have been blocking since forever.

A thing about the Gerrymandering is a lot of safe districts don't have the hugest margins, they just aren't very swingy.

Low turnout + Trump voters not voting downballot and, well, it really is looking like there's a shot, since it's more than a simple blowout but a GOP civil war too.


The Senate is crucial for SCJs (also, 538 model's odds have shifted from 2.5% gap to 10% gap in a day... and the polls are still coming in), but the House is potentially in play too.

Which interestingly, may mean the RNC has to divert more money to defending house races. Or leave 'em underfunded when a wave hits...

I am getting ahead of things a bit, but there is a quite foreseeable scenario where the Democrats end up with control of all three. Control of two, even easier reach.

[The Romulan Republic]

Control of two is probably more likely than not, I'd say.

Control of three is a long shot, but possible.

[Edi]

As long as Democrats get the Senate, it's good, and if they can get a veto proof 60 votes there (very long shot), that would be a huge win because then Hillary could essentially fill all the nominations that require approval (federal judges for Circuit and Appeals Courts and the SCOTUS as well as a number of agencies) and the Republicans could do nothing but gnash their teeth. If they don't get a veto proof majority, then they just need to use the nuclear option and kill the filibuster first thing, then do the nominations.

The Republicans intend to do everything in their power to sabotage her just like they did Obama, so there is zero incentive to play nice or give them anything other than a political fist to the face. Since most of those appointments are from several years to a lifetime, it will give a bulwark against the conservatives trying to drive the nation off a cliff.

[maraxus2]

As long as Democrats get the Senate, it's good, and if they can get a veto proof 60 votes there (very long shot), that would be a huge win because then Hillary could essentially fill all the nominations that require approval (federal judges for Circuit and Appeals Courts and the SCOTUS as well as a number of agencies) and the Republicans could do nothing but gnash their teeth. If they don't get a veto proof majority, then they just need to use the nuclear option and kill the filibuster first thing, then do the nominations.

The Republicans intend to do everything in their power to sabotage her just like they did Obama, so there is zero incentive to play nice or give them anything other than a political fist to the face. Since most of those appointments are from several years to a lifetime, it will give a bulwark against the conservatives trying to drive the nation off a cliff.

A filibuster-proof majority is almost certainly out of the question. But that doesn't matter very much since the GOP can't filibuster non-SCOTUS judicial nominees anymore. There are all manner of other tricks to stop hearings, but they can't filibuster anymore. They can still do it to SCOTUS nominees and appointees requiring Senate consent.

I do agree with you in that I'd bet Chuck Schumer kills off the filibuster the first chance he gets, at least for appointed positions.

[Q99]

Glenn-freakin'-Beck called supporting Hillary a moral and ethical choice

[Executor32]

Glenn-freakin'-Beck called supporting Hillary a moral and ethical choice

I think he more meant enabling a Clinton victory by refusing to vote for Trump, rather than supporting her outright, but still:

[Q99]

That is a fantastic gif, what's it from?

[Executor32]

Kingsman: The Secret Service. You should definitely watch it, the rest of the movie is just as fantastic.

[FaxModem1]

Glenn-freakin'-Beck called supporting Hillary a moral and ethical choice

So, somebody check to see if any pigs are flying or if Hell suddenly needs a bunch of space heaters.

[bilateralrope]

Gods I hope so. But, knowing the kneejerk stupidity of my fellow citizens I won't rest easy until after election day. The only poll that really counts is the one taken on the second Tuesday of November.

It's not just the polls alone... looks like he is becoming rapidly an "impossible candidate" even among his own. A candidate without a party is not going to win. That last scandal with groping looks very much like the last nail in the coffin.

I assure you, this will not be the last nail.

It may be the sufficient nail, but it won't be the last. Trump still has four weeks to wedge his foot further into his mouth.

Indeed.

Trump's team braced for more damaging revelations as campaign reaches final weeks

3:29 PM Tuesday Oct 11, 2016

Donald Trump's team is braced for the prospect of more damaging leaks in the final weeks of the campaign, as opponents warn of more "mega bombs" to come.

Fox News correspondent Ed Henry said former Republican candidate and now Trump supporter, Ben Carson, discussed the prospect of more revelations with him recently.

"They have more things and they will drip them out," he said on Twitter about his conversation with one of Trump's most high-profile backers.

Fox News contributor and journalist Guy Benson has said a Trump opponent told him "at least two more mega bombs are waiting to fall on Trump's head before November 8".

"This individual declined to offer any more information when I sought further information, so it's probably wise to take this information of a grain of salt," he wrote on Townhall.com.

"Then again, CNN has already reported comments from Trump during an interview with Howard Stern in which he assented to allow the host to refer to his daughter, Ivanka, as a 'piece of ass'.

"In my judgment, that's much closer to sexualised 'locker room banter' than what voters heard on the Access Hollywood tape."

Meanwhile The Apprentice producer Bill Pruitt, who worked on the first and second series of the show, said there is more damaging footage buried in the archives.

"When it comes to the #Trumptapes there are far worse," he tweeted, following the revelation of the tape that dominated the second Presidential debate.

Hillary Clinton supporter David Brock, who has founded a superPAC to raise funds for the Democratic contender even promised to cover the reported $5 million penalty for breaching a nondisclosure clause associated with the show.

"If a $5 million 'leak fee' is what stands between truth and total Trump implosion, sign me up," he said in an email to Buzzfeed.

The comments will have Trump's team bracing for more revelations following extraordinary footage captured on a hot mic that proved a bombshell when it was released after being leaked to the Washington Post.

An NBC source said Access Hollywood was prompted to check their archives after the Associated Press ran a story based on accounts from insiders who claimed Trump rated women by the size of their breasts and talked about who he would like to have sex with.

One former staff member who had signed a nondisclosure agreement recalled how Trump asked the men whether they wanted to sleep with another woman in front of her.

"We were in the boardroom one time figuring out who to blame for the task, and he just stopped in the middle and pointed to someone and said, 'You'd f**k her, wouldn't you? I'd f**k her. C'mon, wouldn't you?'"

The Access Hollywood tape of a conversation with Billy Bush caught Trump saying how he tried to sleep with Nancy O'Dell while she was married.

"I moved on her actually, she was down in Palm Beach and I failed. I'll admit it. I did try to f**k her, she was married ... and I moved on her very heavily," he said.

"You know I'm automatically attracted to beautiful - I just start kissing them. It's like a magnet. Just kiss. I don't even wait."

"And when you're a star they let you do it," he adds. "You can do anything ... Grab 'em by the p***y."

On Sunday further video showed Trump saying it was "fortunate I don't have to run for political office" when asked about his womanising in New Zealand 23 years ago.

Fox News host Geraldo Rivera has also come forward to claim he has more tapes featuring Trump that "in the context of the current climate, would be embarrassing".

Speaking on The Five Sunday he said: "He's never used the P-word in front of me, I'll say that."

"But I never saw him come onto any of the beautiful women on the program."

Since the debate Clinton has jumped six points ahead of Trump in the polls according to one by The Economist and YouGov, while election tracker FiveThirtyEight puts her chance of winning at more than 80 per cent.

The latest shocking audio is one in a number of scandals that have painted a disastrous picture of the billionaire when it comes to women, following earlier revelations he referred to a Miss Universe contestant as Miss Piggy which dominated the first debate.

However rather than attempt to draw a line under it on Sunday, Trump attacked Clinton and her husband Bill, calling her the "devil" and saying he was the worst thing that had happened to women.

It prompted his running mate Mike Pence to cancel engagements and "pray" for Trump and his family, while high-profile Republicans Condoleezza Rice and Arnold Schwarzenegger withdrew their support.

Republican National Committee chief strategist Sean Spicer said the party is "working to evaluate the appropriate messaging going forward", amid last-ditch calls for Trump to withdraw.

Donald Trump in 1993: 'It's fortunate I don't have to run for political office' – video

Well they are not all accusing him of rape. One is rape, one is a former mistress, two others if I recall some form of sexual harassment or another. The other is the women who's alleged rapist Hillary defended back in the 70s.

The last one is, btw, completely true- in that Hillary Clinton was a public defender, not that she liked doing so. The prosecution botched the case iirc, which is why he got off. (There's also a Republican smear going around that she 'laughed about it'... said smear using video from a laugh taken from an unrelated event a decade later). In short? Hillary Clinton was a lawyer.

What I've read it that she was laughing about how badly the prosecution fucked things up:
Politifact

However, she recounts that the crime lab had taken a key piece of evidence — the accused man's underpants, which had blood on it — neatly cut out a piece, and then threw that piece away once testing was done, eliminating the ability to do independent testing. In this case, it's the interviewer, Arkansas journalist Roy Reed, who can be heard laughing, not Clinton.

On the tape, in which Reed laughs a few more times at her story, Clinton can be heard chortling when she reports that the prosecutor didn't want her to see the underwear before it was presented at trial. Defense attorneys have the right to see all the evidence first.

And when the judge is considering the plea deal, Clinton recounts that the judge wanted her to leave the room while he talked to the accused man. Clinton says she told the judge, "Judge, I can't leave the room. I'm his lawyer." The judge reportedly responded, "I know, but I don't want to talk about this in front of you." Again, Reed can be heard laughing after saying, "Oh God. Really?" It's not clear if Clinton is laughing as well.

The interview recordings in question. I haven't watched it to see for myself if politifact's article is accurate.

[Flagg]

We shall see. On this forum he has been proposed to go away like you did a hundred times.
Its a very exciting elections. I think he has a very good chance.

I read this thread before watching it and I almost wonder if we watched the same debate. He roasted her and triggered the shit out of many others. She stuttered andsounded like an average boring politician and he sounded new and exciting.

Trump's campaign is basically him reading into his shat-in underwear and smearing it on the wall. You'd know this if you hadn't destroyed your braincells watching Fox News.

[Simon_Jester]

I assure you, this will not be the last nail.

It may be the sufficient nail, but it won't be the last. Trump still has four weeks to wedge his foot further into his mouth.

Indeed.

Trump's team braced for more damaging revelations as campaign reaches final weeks

Heck, I was just talking about the entirely new and unknown nails Trump would create for himself. The man's a walking pile of reeking filth; I very much doubt he can go four weeks without doing any new horrible things. That's before we even count the arsenal of horrible things he's already done.

"This individual declined to offer any more information when I sought further information, so it's probably wise to take this information of a grain of salt," he wrote on Townhall.com.

"Then again, CNN has already reported comments from Trump during an interview with Howard Stern in which he assented to allow the host to refer to his daughter, Ivanka, as a 'piece of ass'.

Now see, even for Trump supporters that should be a troubling one.

Because what kind of big strong blustering "silverback" manly man sits around and tolerates someone speaking about his own daughter that way?

Hillary Clinton supporter David Brock, who has founded a superPAC to raise funds for the Democratic contender even promised to cover the reported $5 million penalty for breaching a nondisclosure clause associated with the show.

"If a $5 million 'leak fee' is what stands between truth and total Trump implosion, sign me up," he said in an email to Buzzfeed.

For once, I'm feeling approval for a PAC, heaven help me.

We shall see. On this forum he has been proposed to go away like you did a hundred times.
Its a very exciting elections. I think he has a very good chance.

I read this thread before watching it and I almost wonder if we watched the same debate. He roasted her and triggered the shit out of many others. She stuttered andsounded like an average boring politician and he sounded new and exciting.

Trump's campaign is basically him reading into his shat-in underwear and smearing it on the wall. You'd know this if you hadn't destroyed your braincells watching Fox News.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure cosmicalstorm destroyed his brains well before he started watching Fox News. I blame all that snake oil buckyballs he eats to extend his life. "Only time will tell" if consuming random artificial substances that have never been tested on humans in a systematic way, because some self-promotion expert in Ukraine or wherever is advocating them, will have side effects, indeed...

[Q99]

Rasmussen- "Romney is totally going to win," Rasmussen, has Hillary at +7.

[The Romulan Republic]

Glenn-freakin'-Beck called supporting Hillary a moral and ethical choice

So, somebody check to see if any pigs are flying or if Hell suddenly needs a bunch of space heaters.

To be fair, Beck was, from what I've heard, never the biggest Trump enthusiast. He was a Cruz supporter.

[The Romulan Republic]

How long should we expect for it to take to start seeing real movement in the polls after last week?

Because fivethirtyeight has barely moved, as far as I can see.

Clinton has a healthy lead regardless, but I really don't want to have to admit that for about forty percent of Americans, their candidate admitting to and bragging about committing sexual assault and then threatening his opponent with prison if he wins makes no difference in their vote.

[SolarpunkFan]

How long should we expect for it to take to start seeing real movement in the polls after last week?

Because fivethirtyeight has barely moved, as far as I can see.

Clinton has a healthy lead regardless, but I really don't want to have to admit that for about forty percent of Americans, their candidate admitting to and bragging about committing sexual assault and then threatening his opponent with prison if he wins makes no difference in their vote.

I believe the date was pinned at this Thursday.

[Elheru Aran]

I really don't want to have to admit that for about forty percent of Americans, their candidate admitting to and bragging about committing sexual assault and then threatening his opponent with prison if he wins makes no difference in their vote.

I have to think that for at least SOME of them, it's a deeply ingrained, instinctual loyalty to voting whatever the party puts forth, not actual support for Trump. It doesn't really make sense otherwise.

[The Romulan Republic]

I suspect that their's a measure of denialism going. That its easier to rationalize away what Trump said than to admit that they may have just spent the last year and a half, in some cases, supporting a rapist for President.

Or maybe I'm giving them too much credit, and they just that think rape is okay.

[Elheru Aran]

Probably a bit of both, depending on the person. Some of my relatives have been posting a bunch of 'Hillary Clinton is a Potty Mouth Too' articles on Facebook. Turns out that 30-year Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy was good for generating a bunch of bullshit that's coming up useful now?

There's no mistake about it-- a LOT of Republicans know quite well that Trump is going to be extremely bad-- but many of them have literally grown up with this while 'Hillary Clinton is a Bad Person' narrative, and they cannot shed that for the life of them.

[Q99]

It's funny how many bad-Hillary quotes I've seen are clearly made up. Like just random sentences full of swearing.

[The Romulan Republic]

People overuse 1984 comparisons, but I think it really fits the current Republican Party/Alt. Right. They're effectively constructing an ever-shifting alternate reality built on lies and hate.

[FireNexus]

Trump is going nuclear on Paul Ryan right now. Ramping up the rhetoric to the point where I expect he might actually take my insincere Twitter advice to punish the GOP up and down the ballot in retaliation for their "betrayal" of Trump.

[FireNexus]

"With the exception of cheating Bernie out of the nom, Dems have always proven to be far more loyal to each other than Republicans!"

Holy shit. He's doing it. He's going to war with the GOP. With their most loyal voting bloc as soldiers. SQUEEEEEEEEE!

[Flagg]

People overuse 1984 comparisons, but I think it really fits the current Republican Party/Alt. Right. They're effectively constructing an ever-shifting alternate reality built on lies and hate.

The first truly Orwellian term used was by W; "Compassionate Conservatism."

[Elheru Aran]

It's funny how many bad-Hillary quotes I've seen are clearly made up. Like just random sentences full of swearing.

Out of curiosity I checked Snopes and it seems the majority of them are drawn from right-wing anti-Clinton propaganda pieces with sources like "unnamed West Wing aide" or "Clinton adviser"... the (scant) rest are either bad inferences or attribution without context, from stuff like the audio of the Clinton interview about the rape trial, interviews or speeches where she's talking about something else or making an example and they just use what she said verbatim.

Or they just make up bullshit, like the notorious "I will get the NRA shut down for good" quote in the Des Moines Register... when she wasn't even in Iowa at the time.

At the very bottom of the Republican soul, there is this dire, dark message engraved into the walls of their hearts... the Clintons are the Beast of the Revelation and must never hold office again. Compared to that, the bad photoshop of Obama in a turban with devil horns is a cheap printout Scotch-taped to the wall. They may recognize that Trump is about the worst deal their party could've made, but if it would keep Clinton out of office, it's worth selling their souls to the Devil.

But this time around, the Devil's showing his true colors *before* he's elected, and hopefully that'll change some minds, if not hearts...