The 2016 US Election (Part IV)

[Executor32]

This is especially ridiculous given most of the notable election violence perpetrated this cycle is overwhelmingly sourced from the left up to and including fire bombings. Honestly, given the behavior of the left this cycle, do you honestly think there would be no violence against a Trump win regardless of how gracious Hillary was in defeat? Shit, there probably will if she wins.

Most of it is overwhelmingly sourced from the left? Come the fuck on, man. I'd love to see your source for that, given that—while there has been some violence from the left, the firebombing, Chicago rally shutdown/riot, and the egg-throwing incident springing immediately to mind—for months on end not a Trump rally went by without Trump supporters getting violent with somebody.

[Flagg]

So now you've back to taking cheap shots at me in posts that don't even have anything to do with me? Yeah, you're totally the mature, reasonable one here.



Just how many of your posts have a positive substance to insult ratio?

But since I'm really not interested in derailing this thread by engaging in yet another one of your sad little pissing contests, that's the last I'll say on it.

Just go tattle to the mods when you think I'm being a bad boy.

Hi!

Flagg, your initial hyperbole was not obvious to me. It can actually be rather difficult to distinguish between you using hyperbole, and you flying off the handle into cuckooland.

So you will cease this behavior. It is bordering on a vendetta violation.

I was very very happy to see Part III of this thread locked because it got too big, rather than because shitposting and trolling mandated it. You will not tarnish that record.

Placeholder

Flagg is an asshole sometimes. Don't react to him when he decides to be an ass.

---

This has been the informal warning from the local forum moderator. Further violations will result in violators wearing the cone of the hall of shame. If it persists beyond that, my actions will become increasingly formal and no one wants that.

Wait, saying that if a bunch of white guys in button down shirts at the Miami Dade county hand counting station literally rioting (which happened) would have resulted in a massacre if they had been black people with hoodies isn't obvious hyperbole to which TRR gets to whine about, but him literally saying that when Donnie Douchebag loses in November republicans will commit terrorist acts is OK and in no need of someone with a green name spanking him? Is this opposite day? April fools? A gas leak?

[Mr Bean]

Finally am in a position to watch the debate live comment it like I did the primary debates and I get home to discover I'm so tired I fell asleep fully clothed after working 12 hours and walking the dog, sat down for a second to take off my shoes, then ended up vertical on the bed and was out.

Watching the highlights now it's ugly, while Clinton had lots of great lines she's I think overplaying her hand. At this point she needs not only to consider winning the election but also Trump supporters. Not in the sense of appealing to them but letting them lose with some dignity. Yes it was that bad that I think this debate was Trump getting his face pushed in.

I hate to say it but I hope Trump has an exit strategy considering his very likely upcoming loss. If he never backs down and never surrenders we might be in for a bad few months of... I don't think wide spread violence but a terrible atmosphere of potentiality.

[Flagg]

So basically, what if what I said hadn't been hyperbole (it was)? Would I have been justified in digging up and posting all the times a certain member has said over the top stuff to point to him being a hypocrite? Or does the mere fact that this member takes issue with tons of posts I make on a regular basis inoculate him and therefore make anything I say in reply a vendetta? Because I'm smelling double standard here and I'd like it cleared up because it seems like no matter what I do I get the blame and the one actually saying large groups of people they disagree with will commit violent acts because he disagrees with them gets away smelling like a rose?

Because not to sound like a 5 year old, but I made a reply that was in no way insulting to him and he got all whiny despite his long history of saying off the wall stuff about large groups of people he disagrees with being met with violence and yet no green names come in and give him the business.

[SolarpunkFan]

*snip discredited theory*

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the ... s-support/

Trump supporters on average make well above the national median income. They're middle-middle to upper-middle class white folks. The economy argument is bullshit, because actually poor people generally do not support Trump. They are racists who have ceased bothering to camouflage their racism except the naughty bits, and they're still using economic anxiety to cover it such as they are.

Interesting. I guess my speculation was wrong.

[Imperial Overlord]

The US has very high economic anxiety compared to other western countries. It's basically the result of very high levels of inequality and a very poor social safety net. Even the upper middle class can be bankrupted by a medical disaster and that's not the only way to fall. So for a lot of Trump's supporters the economic anxiety is as real as the racism.

[Q99]

Watching the highlights now it's ugly, while Clinton had lots of great lines she's I think overplaying her hand. At this point she needs not only to consider winning the election but also Trump supporters. Not in the sense of appealing to them but letting them lose with some dignity. Yes it was that bad that I think this debate was Trump getting his face pushed in.

Hillary is considering them, that's why she's trying to win by as much as possible to make the victory as clear as possible.

Remember, she'll get accused of cheating and being evil *regardless*. Her defense is to make that as ridiculously looking as possible. Because there really isn't a way to get them perceive her as anything other than an aggressive enemies- heck, that didn't really work with Bernie supporters and she was genuinely heavily softballing that one.

I hate to say it but I hope Trump has an exit strategy considering his very likely upcoming loss. If he never backs down and never surrenders we might be in for a bad few months of... I don't think wide spread violence but a terrible atmosphere of potentiality.

He does, complain about rigging and say he won while retreating to rich estates.

[Flagg]

Watching the highlights now it's ugly, while Clinton had lots of great lines she's I think overplaying her hand. At this point she needs not only to consider winning the election but also Trump supporters. Not in the sense of appealing to them but letting them lose with some dignity. Yes it was that bad that I think this debate was Trump getting his face pushed in.

Hillary is considering them, that's why she's trying to win by as much as possible to make the victory as clear as possible.

Remember, she'll get accused of cheating and being evil *regardless*. Her defense is to make that as ridiculously looking as possible. Because there really isn't a way to get them perceive her as anything other than an aggressive enemies- heck, that didn't really work with Bernie supporters and she was genuinely heavily softballing that one.

I hate to say it but I hope Trump has an exit strategy considering his very likely upcoming loss. If he never backs down and never surrenders we might be in for a bad few months of... I don't think wide spread violence but a terrible atmosphere of potentiality.

He does, complain about rigging and say he won while retreating to rich estates.

Yeah. That seems to literally be his plan. We may have a fucking contested election with double digit Clinton leads in both popular and elector votes. It could go all the was to the evenly sided SCOTUS, maybe as late as January, forever marking the first female POTUS as winning with a motherfucking asterisk next to 45.

[Q99]

Republican strategies think Trump may have screwed them on the downballot with that debate

The 'rigged' narrative is great if you plan to lose and want an ego-salving excuse without respect for our institutions, but also a good way to lower turnout.

[Flagg]

Republican strategies think Trump may have screwed them on the downballot with that debate

The 'rigged' narrative is great if you plan to lose and want an ego-salving excuse without respect for our institutions, but also a good way to lower turnout.

Donnie Douchebag: The Least Interesting Man In The World. Why didn't we shoot him into space? "Stay thirsty you horrible fat ugly slut!"

[bilateralrope]

The 'rigged' narrative is great if you plan to lose and want an ego-salving excuse without respect for our institutions, but also a good way to lower turnout.

But a good one for building an audience for whatever media business Trump is planning to run after he loses.

[Civil War Man]

The 'rigged' narrative is great if you plan to lose and want an ego-salving excuse without respect for our institutions, but also a good way to lower turnout.

But a good one for building an audience for whatever media business Trump is planning to run after he loses.

Speaking of which....

In the minutes before the third and final presidential debate, Donald Trump went live on Facebook in what may have been the inaugural broadcast of a forthcoming Trump News Network.

A little after 8:30 p.m., Trump’s official Facebook page posted the link to the live video, offering up an alternative to the mainstream broadcast. The message: “If you’re tired of biased, mainstream media reporting (otherwise known as Crooked Hillary’s super PAC), tune into my Facebook Live broadcast. Starts at 8:30 EST/5:30 PST — you won’t want to miss it. Enjoy!”

The broadcast quickly ballooned to around 200,000 concurrent viewers but quickly fell off to around 120,000. As of the middle of the debate, the feed was holding steady at around 170,000, trailing only the ABC News debate feed on the platform.

The livestream featured punditry from retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn and former Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, and in place of commercials, the feed was interspersed with pro-Trump ads and a special message from Ivanka Trump. Looking more like public access than a glitzy cable news offering, the broadcast moved slowly between guests with at least one or two hot-mic off moments where the hosts discussed where the next segment was headed. There were also hints of some surprise programming after the debate ends.

While this isn’t Trump’s first livestream event — the campaign went live before the second debate during Trump’s press conference with Juanita Broaddrick and the Bill Clinton sexual assault accusers — it appears to be the first attempt at some original programming and analysis. The production infrastructure looks to be provided by Right Side Broadcasting, a conservative video-streaming network based out of Auburn, Alabama.

The livestream comes on the heels of news this week that Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner was in the early phases of shopping a Trump TV network. This morning, in response to post-election Trump TV rumors, Trump campaign CEO Steve Bannon hedged, telling CNN only that “Trump is an entrepreneur.”

As for a potential channel name? Plenty of options have been bandied about but judging by Trump’s own page, Trump TV might be a safe bet.



The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

[The Romulan Republic]

Oh good, another far Right news outlet spreading bigotry, lies, and wild conspiracy theories and advocating violence and despotism.

Well, guess we better start organizing the boycotts.

[The Romulan Republic]

Clinton looks to have dropped slightly on fivethirtyeight, at least in the Now-cast, but that'll be pre-debate polls. Certainly not enough to be very concerned over, besides the general disbelief that anyone could still be going to Trump.

Interestingly, McMullen is now up to over 22% chance of winning Utah in the Now-cast, which means that yes, he has a better chance of winning Utah than Trump does of winning the election. Oh, I hope Trump loses Utah, just to make his humiliation that much more complete.

Clinton's odds seem to have gone down a little ground in Alaska, Iowa (though its still blue-leaning), and Arizona (back to leaning red, slightly, in Polls-plus, but not in the Now-cast or Polls-only). However, Clinton's odds appears to have gone up in Georgia in the Now-cast. I think we still have a good chance of winning Iowa and Arizona, and I'd love to net Georgia on top of that.

Interestingly, overall, Clinton's chances of victory (86.2%) are exactly the same in the Now-cast and Polls-only. Don't know if that means anything.

[Flagg]

I'm going to be kind and say that this reeks of the XFL. Only the XFL was interesting.

[Q99]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlLFTI24Qkw[/youtube]

A video on Trump's debate collapse, and how directed and caused by Hillary it was- not an inevitability like how people may look at in retrospect (indeed, he had little problem with experienced debaters in the primary), but a very well-executed and planned strategy.

Which I think goes into 'would another Democratic candidate be doing better?'. Another Democratic candidate would not have this! There may be another collapse, scandals would still come out with opportunities to capitalize, but the three-part saga of Hillary pushing Donald over a cliff is by the design and construction of Hillary Rodham Clinton.

People are talking about a wave allowing a taking of the House now- and with little time to set up a 'don't give a blank check' defense like they did with Dole (plus more reason to think that'd backlash). If we do, or even get close, and the odds are still hard to say on that, then we have Hillary to thank, not just Trump.

Clinton looks to have dropped slightly on fivethirtyeight, at least in the Now-cast, but that'll be pre-debate polls. Certainly not enough to be very concerned over, besides the general disbelief that anyone could still be going to Trump.

Polls are currently not worth mentioning til more come in. Indeed, right now they're reacting to the possibility of Trump possibly salvaging a third.

Interestingly, overall, Clinton's chances of victory (86.2%) are exactly the same in the Now-cast and Polls-only. Don't know if that means anything.

It means the slightly higher popular vote edge predicted by polls only happens to balance out with the time factor.

[The Romulan Republic]

Baring some last minute late October surprise or something, the third debate marks the last major event of the campaign, correct?

So it'll be interesting to see the post-third debate polls, as that'll likely indicate, more or less, the final state of the race before election day, I'd imagine.

[Vendetta]

Third debates don't historically change the polls much.

It would have taken one of the candidates stripping, shitting on stage, and rolling in it to make actual waves at this point.

(Or Donald Trump suddenly being an incisive competent politician, but the shitting on stage thing was more likely than that)

[The Romulan Republic]

I don't know, I think I'd have taking stripping, shitting, and rolling over Trump suggesting that he won't accept the election results if he loses.

[Q99]

Third debates don't historically change the polls much.

It would have taken one of the candidates stripping, shitting on stage, and rolling in it to make actual waves at this point.

(Or Donald Trump suddenly being an incisive competent politician, but the shitting on stage thing was more likely than that)

Fox news is talking about how we may have witnessed the end of the election and I'm seeing a number of places talking a Democratic wave possibly taking the House.

So, we may have seen just that.


Every debate further reinforced Hillary's narrative on Trump and dug him deeper with more scandals and unforced major errors.

(Again, this video by Vox is great)

[Flagg]

Wait there are still people other than die hard Trumpista's who think Donnie Douchebag can (legitimately) win the election despite his entire campaign being Diarrhea Mountain (With Eruptions Every 2-5 hours, Bring the Kids!)?

I mean even Kang and Kodos couldn't pull this one off!

Honestly, I don't know whether Donnie Douchebag is just pulling this shit to try and delegitimize her in a last ditch effort to end the implosion of the Republican party as anything more than a regional entity or if he's drinking his own Douchade...

[Vendetta]

Honestly, I don't know whether Donnie Douchebag is just pulling this shit to try and delegitimize her in a last ditch effort to end the implosion of the Republican party as anything more than a regional entity or if he's drinking his own Douchade...

Let's be honest here we all know why he's doing it.

Because he's a massive raging example of Dunning-Kruger syndrome. He literally cannot tell how badly he has done, and because he was born rich and had the consequences of all his failures smoothed over by daddy's money he's never had to learn about personal consequences of failure.

Everyone* else looks at what he's done and thinks "holy shit this is the worst candidate ever!" but he cannot do that, he cannot self reflect in that way.

So he finds an excuse to explain why he is losing, it can't be his fault. The election must be rigged! Hillary is on performance enhancing debate drugs! The media is against me!

It's everybody's fault but little baby Donny-Dunning-Kruger.

[FireNexus]

I think he's throwing the game. The way he held back on his most potent attacks on her in favor of conspiracy bullshit and the way he actually pivoted away from legitimate challenges on her past behavior (thumbs up to Wallace for being a good moderator by not saving him on that measure) to more bullshit says that.

He knows he's going to lose, and he isn't trying to win. He's trying to save his ego and build the Trump News brand identity. And possibly also try to lose harder so he fucks the republicans he feels have slighted him.

[maraxus2]

Watching the highlights now it's ugly, while Clinton had lots of great lines she's I think overplaying her hand. At this point she needs not only to consider winning the election but also Trump supporters. Not in the sense of appealing to them but letting them lose with some dignity. Yes it was that bad that I think this debate was Trump getting his face pushed in.

I hate to say it but I hope Trump has an exit strategy considering his very likely upcoming loss. If he never backs down and never surrenders we might be in for a bad few months of... I don't think wide spread violence but a terrible atmosphere of potentiality.

Lol, what does that even mean? That she'll pull back her electoral operations to protect the feelings of the dipshits who will never think she's legitimate anyway?

Fuck 'em. She needs to run up the score as much as possible. If for no other reason than she'd much rather negotiate with Democrats in the House and Senate than Ryan and McConnell. If Trump's going to assist in his own destruction, he should feel free to do so.

I think he's throwing the game. The way he held back on his most potent attacks on her in favor of conspiracy bullshit and the way he actually pivoted away from legitimate challenges on her past behavior (thumbs up to Wallace for being a good moderator by not saving him on that measure) to more bullshit says that.

He knows he's going to lose, and he isn't trying to win. He's trying to save his ego and build the Trump News brand identity. And possibly also try to lose harder so he fucks the republicans he feels have slighted him.

Trump is campaigning in Wisconsin, a state the the GOP hasn't won since 1984, specifically to hold rallies where he talks shit about Paul Ryan. It appears to be working. This is nuts.

[Ziggy Stardust]

Wait there are still people other than die hard Trumpista's who think Donnie Douchebag can (legitimately) win the election despite his entire campaign being Diarrhea Mountain (With Eruptions Every 2-5 hours, Bring the Kids!)?

It's amazing to me how many ultra-conservatives don't see the writing on the wall. There's just a surprisingly large percentage of the population that gets literally ALL of their news filtered to them through FOX News (at best, actually, many of them think FOX News has been compromised by the liberal agenda and now resort to fringe conspiracy theory peddlers). They simply aren't being exposed to, say, Nate Silver's work, or other rigorous predictive measurements of the election, they are only seeing the cherry-picked (or outright fraudulent) evidence that suggests Trump is winning, or at least that the race is close. That, and typically the social circles of these types of individuals happen to be other arch-conservatives with the same belief systems: so, from their perspective, every one they know and trust is supporting Trump, and all of the news sources they trust say Trump is going to win or that the race is close, so they literally cannot comprehend the fact that this isn't true.

I see it all over Facebook, too. Someone will post something about the election in support of Hillary, or insulting Trump, and they get harangued by comments like, "Count Trump out at your own peril!" or "I can't wait to see your face when Trump wins!" and whatnot.

It would really be quite fascinating a phenomenon to study if it weren't so depressing and stupid. It's not even just the most hardcore Trump supporters, too; I have seen several people who I know are conservative/Republicans but who don't personally like Trump still making comments like, "He is a more viable candidate than the lying liberal media elite are claiming" or "He has a greater chance than most people realize".