The 2016 US Election (Part IV)

[Vendetta]

Flagg and TRR can't help it if they get triggered each time the other posts.

At least Flagg is funny though....


NB: If you are looking at Fivethirtyeight, the Polls Plus forecast is the most likely to resemble the actual outcome. (In 2012 they were accurate in every state plus DC with that model).

[Q99]

NB: If you are looking at Fivethirtyeight, the Polls Plus forecast is the most likely to resemble the actual outcome. (In 2012 they were accurate in every state plus DC with that model).

And, they had a video after the third debate where Nate wasn't present, where they really did confess they all *hated* the nowcast

Though my money is on polls-only being the most accurate this year, since plus factors in fundamentals and a lot of the fundamentals are out of whack due to how weird a race this is.

[Alyrium Denryle]

Because precisely zero people in this thread were able to act like adults, I have shoveled the festering pile of dung here, into my own little septic tank.. I trust I will not have to do this again?

[FireNexus]

Because precisely zero people in this thread were able to act like adults, I have shoveled the festering pile of dung here, into my own little septic tank.. I trust I will not have to do this again?

Apologies for being a dickhole. Will be avoided in the future.

In actual news, it appears that the senate is going to turn. If Clinton has one last whopper of a piece of oppo, the house might too.

[Tsyroc]

Sigh... Iowa is back to leaning (marginally) red in the Now-cast and Polls-plus. Surprising, since not too long ago it was leaning blue by a fairly strong margin, as I recall. Then again, before that it looked to be solid red for a while. Iowa's been fluctuating a lot. Hopefully when they get more post-debate polls in, it'll move back away from the basket of deplorables.

Still... the thought of Arizona being potentially more likely to go blue than Iowa is rather amusing.

That it is. (I grew up in Iowa and live in Arizona).

Considering how much of a dick Trump was to Iowans when he was in Iowa I'd think that would hurt him more.

Usually about 2-3 counties (out of 13) have a decent shot at going Democrat in Arizona. It takes a bit to counter the Redness of Maricopa County (the Phoenix area) though.

[maraxus2]

That it is. (I grew up in Iowa and live in Arizona).

Considering how much of a dick Trump was to Iowans when he was in Iowa I'd think that would hurt him more.

Usually about 2-3 counties (out of 13) have a decent shot at going Democrat in Arizona. It takes a bit to counter the Redness of Maricopa County (the Phoenix area) though.

Lots of non-college whites in Iowa, and practically no people of color. Iowa wouldn't be close at all if it looked more like Minnesota or Wisconsin, which both have small but very reliable pockets of votes throughout the states. They're pretty much the Black and brown sections in the big cities. Iowa basically doesn't have that.

What's even more nuts is that Joe Arpaio stands a very good shot at losing his re-election campaign. You've gotta be practically radioactive not to win as a Maricopa County Republican.

[Q99]

In actual news, it appears that the senate is going to turn. If Clinton has one last whopper of a piece of oppo, the house might too.

Having more than one wouldn't be a shock at this point.

I do hear the number of women accusing Trump is supposed to go up to 11 today.

There's also the question of how much the 'rigged' message will suppress voter turnout and how much the voting turnout machine difference will tell. Trump could also still be degrading from the last debate and the dinner.

[Executor32]

Hey look, it's everyone's favorite dingleberry, here to vomit up some nonsense:



Not only does Clingin' Shit believe that a couple in their 70s having been acquainted with 53 now-dead people is newsworthy information and possible evidence of a conspiracy, he has delusions of grandeur that he would be important enough to kill after Hillary's elected if said conspiracy were true.

[FireNexus]

In actual news, it appears that the senate is going to turn. If Clinton has one last whopper of a piece of oppo, the house might too.

Having more than one wouldn't be a shock at this point.

I do hear the number of women accusing Trump is supposed to go up to 11 today.

There's also the question of how much the 'rigged' message will suppress voter turnout and how much the voting turnout machine difference will tell. Trump could also still be degrading from the last debate and the dinner.

I agree. If she has something that makes it look like congressional republicans are conspiring to stop Trump, or if Trump goes full Special Jack and tells his voters to actually vote against Congressional Republicans to send them a message/take he party completely over in the midterms or 2020 (a possibility I've raised as #burntheGOP4Trump for a while, but stopped after someone literally burned the GOP since it was disrespectful), this is going to be crazy.

Like I'm buying a lottery ticket, I'm dreaming of a Dem wave that turns state houses and local governments and starts repopulating their bench. That's pretty unlikely, though.

[Q99]

We're in fluff-piece season. Still, some interesting ones-

Computer emotional-analysis of the expressions of the candidates in the debates

[FireNexus]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/h ... ppo-230185

"Can’t work with other people to get things done.”
“No accomplishments.”

This just in. Wiki leaks has announced that Clinton hires oppo researchers with functioning brain and the ability to craft a legitimate narrative regarding a hilariously weak opponent with inexplicably strong support. In case that wasn't already obvious from the past three weeks.

Given the timing, I assume Julian Assange and his Russian owners thought this little nothing burger was their big guns. They'll probably start with making shit up in a few days.

[The Romulan Republic]

Maybe its not the most intellectually honest thing to do, but at this point I'm largely tuning out anything out of Wikileaks. Given their obvious biases, its dubious how reliable anything they report is; its not like their's a lot that they could unearth that would actually make me change my vote, considering the alternative; and on the off-chance that they did unearth something real that was signifiant enough to make me reconsider my vote (hard to imagine what that would be), I presume that it would probably get extensive coverage elsewhere.

At this point, as far as I'm concerned, Wikileaks is just Putin's white noise machine.

[Q99]

This just in. Wiki leaks has announced that Clinton hires oppo researchers with functioning brain and the ability to craft a legitimate narrative regarding a hilariously weak opponent with inexplicably strong support. In case that wasn't already obvious from the past three weeks.

Given the timing, I assume Julian Assange and his Russian owners thought this little nothing burger was their big guns. They'll probably start with making shit up in a few days.

They have full-on Clinton Derangement syndrome, when every little thing becomes a bombshell to them.

... you know, it's pretty sad that even with including some doctoring, this is the best they've got?


TRR- I think that's the norm now. Between overhyping nothing burgers, putting out info that puts people's lives in serious risk (non-Hillary related), and putting out some obvious fakes (did you know the Clinton Foundation Donated to Black Lives Matter, ACORN, *and* the Sharia law institute last year? One of which isn't a centralized organization, the second disbanded 5 years ago, and the third simply doesn't exist period).

[SolarpunkFan]

18 days to go. Getting a bit nervous again (one reason being that an Investors Business Daily poll has Trump up slightly over Hillary). Not panic mode like a few months ago, but I've definitely got some nervousness going on right now.

[FireNexus]

That IBD poll is a big time outlier. Every other poll has Clinton up four or more points.

[Highlord Laan]

Hey look, it's everyone's favorite dingleberry, here to vomit up some nonsense:



Not only does Clingin' Shit believe that a couple in their 70s having been acquainted with 53 now-dead people is newsworthy information and possible evidence of a conspiracy, he has delusions of grandeur that he would be important enough to kill after Hillary's elected if said conspiracy were true.

Who is this cuntbubble, and why am I supposed to know him?

*Browses his site*

Oh, for fucks sake.

[Mlenk]

Going to early vote here in Nevada tomorrow for HRC. After that I will be staying away from any social media and news outlet till November 9th. Maybe i will lurk on sd.net on election night but thats it. I am pretty sick of this election cycle.

[Iroscato]

I'm sick of this whole omnishambles, and I live in the UK. I want to remember what the world looks like without Trump's fucking face burned semi-permanently into my retinas.

[Lord Revan]

The whole thing looks silly from an outsider perspective, I mean here even in elections where people have things to loose/win things don't get this nasty, well at least with candidates that have any hope of getting elected, I'm sure the communists parties (yes we've had more then one) are screaming of capitalist conspiracy for not getting enough support to get even a single parlament seat, oh and these are actual extreme left wing parties too not simply left of the GOP.

[Flagg]

18 days to go. Getting a bit nervous again (one reason being that an Investors Business Daily poll has Trump up slightly over Hillary). Not panic mode like a few months ago, but I've definitely got some nervousness going on right now.

Why? This is reality, not a comic book where you can go from Earth 1 where Donnie Douchebag is president forcing himself on Angela Merkel and Earth 2 where Donnie Douchebag is in a basement on stage throwing feces at people shouting "White Power".

Anyway, nationwide polls mean nothing because there are no national elections. If Trump were 4 points ahead in California I'd have my Seppuku materials out and ready (aka enough weed to get me solid stoned until he crash lands and dies on an Aircraft carrier announcing Mission Accomplished in retaking Maryland during the Second Civil War through the use of a 10 Megaton Thermonuclear weapon), but he's not so I won't.

[Executor32]

Hey look, it's everyone's favorite dingleberry, here to vomit up some nonsense:

<snip>

Not only does Clingin' Shit believe that a couple in their 70s having been acquainted with 53 now-dead people is newsworthy information and possible evidence of a conspiracy, he has delusions of grandeur that he would be important enough to kill after Hillary's elected if said conspiracy were true.

Who is this cuntbubble, and why am I supposed to know him?

*Browses his site*

Oh, for fucks sake.

This fucking guy. Despite that baggage, in 2014 he somehow managed to get elected to the Colorado House of Representatives, with 70% of the votes in his district no less. It probably helps that it was in Whack-A-Loon Central AKA Colorado Springs.

[Lord Revan]

I think it would better to ask "does this really matter" then "who is he". Reporting about every conservative nutjob ranting about how this or that will kill Clinton's election chances will only make them seem more important then they are.

[Q99]

Hillary Clinton is done

"Hillary Clinton is done with Donald Trump.

Using her most dismissive language of the campaign — “I don’t even think about responding to him anymore” — Clinton said Saturday she is now more focused on electing other Democrats in the final days of the 2016 campaign than her Republican opponent."

[Mr Bean]

Makes you wonder if there was a large scale Russian effort come election day and Trump ends up winning how much shade he'd get to throw Clinton's way. And yes I am pre-supposing Trump victory is only possible via large scale voter fraud efforts but then I think Secretary Clinton is as well.

[maraxus2]

Makes you wonder if there was a large scale Russian effort come election day and Trump ends up winning how much shade he'd get to throw Clinton's way. And yes I am pre-supposing Trump victory is only possible via large scale voter fraud efforts but then I think Secretary Clinton is as well.

...Seriously?