The 2016 US Election (Part IV)

[Alyrium Denryle]

Makes you wonder if there was a large scale Russian effort come election day and Trump ends up winning how much shade he'd get to throw Clinton's way. And yes I am pre-supposing Trump victory is only possible via large scale voter fraud efforts but then I think Secretary Clinton is as well.

You realize the basic math for that fails, right?

[SCRawl]

Makes you wonder if there was a large scale Russian effort come election day and Trump ends up winning how much shade he'd get to throw Clinton's way. And yes I am pre-supposing Trump victory is only possible via large scale voter fraud efforts but then I think Secretary Clinton is as well.

...Seriously?

Following that through, he is saying that Secretary Clinton is also pre-supposing that a Trump victory is only possible via large-scale voter fraud efforts. Given the current poll results, that does seem reasonable. The election appears to be hers to lose unless unprecedented levels of shenanigans are deployed or the polls are completely wrong.

[maraxus2]

Makes you wonder if there was a large scale Russian effort come election day and Trump ends up winning how much shade he'd get to throw Clinton's way. And yes I am pre-supposing Trump victory is only possible via large scale voter fraud efforts but then I think Secretary Clinton is as well.

...Seriously?

Following that through, he is saying that Secretary Clinton is also pre-supposing that a Trump victory is only possible via large-scale voter fraud efforts. Given the current poll results, that does seem reasonable. The election appears to be hers to lose unless unprecedented levels of shenanigans are deployed or the polls are completely wrong.

That's the thing though; large-scale shenanigans pretty much can't be deployed this late in the game; certainly not without the consent of the Secretaries of State, and a lot of them are Democrats.

The polls could be systemically incorrect - that's already happened in the primary. OTOH, it looks like the share of likely Republican voters is falling like a shit from heaven.

[SCRawl]

Well, yes, real-world voter fraud does not seem to be an actual significant thing, unless somehow it's done so cleverly that it's invisible to anyone who has ever seriously looked for it (aside from a few already well-documented cases). But who knows what someone with practically unlimited financial resources could pull off, at least in theory? The Donald is supposedly worth billions of dollars; could he not pay a few Secretaries of State a hundred million bucks or so to certify a close election in his favour? Further down the food chain, could he not pay off hordes of elections officers to deliver their precincts? It's not a matter of it being possible, it's really just a matter of how much money it would take and whether or not it could be kept quiet long enough to keep a thus-won presidency from being poisoned.

Let's try a rough estimate. Suppose you would need to buy off a thousand precincts to practically guarantee the election. How many people would need to be paid off to get that done? Ten thousand? I'm not all that sure about how the elections work where the rubber meets the road in the US, so I'm just spit-balling here. I imagine that it would take something like $10 million each to guarantee an election officer's compliance and silence. Maybe a little less. Using my crude calculation, that's $100 billion, which is well beyond Trump's personal resources or even the most optimistic fund-raising goals. But if the basic premise is valid -- that elections officers can be bribed -- that's one avenue for elections fraud which could be exploited.

This is a ridiculous scenario, of course. Still, if Trump is to become president, there's really only two possibilities: either there will have been fraud or really bad polling.

[maraxus2]

Snip.

Lol. It is a matter of it being possible. As it happens, it is not possible, since elected officials aren't driven by that kind of naked profit motive. Especially not when it'd look really fucking suspicious if Clinton suddenly lost Wisconsin, for instance, when she'd been leading for the entire election.

Election fraud in the US doesn't really work in the bluntly transactional way you're describing. It's not about paying people to go to the polls, like it used to be back in the good ol' days. Now it's about manipulating the rules to keep people from voting. You don't even have to prevent everyone from voting, just cut into the margin enough to give your favored candidate the win.

Back in 2000, Florida purged around 57,000 people from their voter rolls because they were felons. About half of those people were Black, who would almost certainly have voted for Al Gore. Many of those voters, potentially several thousand, were not actually felons. They usually had similar names to felons, and should have been entitled to vote. Bush officially won the state by 537 votes.

That's the kind of election fraud we're really talking about. But it only works at the margins and when elections are exceedingly close. This election will not be close.

[Mr Bean]

Makes you wonder if there was a large scale Russian effort come election day and Trump ends up winning how much shade he'd get to throw Clinton's way. And yes I am pre-supposing Trump victory is only possible via large scale voter fraud efforts but then I think Secretary Clinton is as well.

...Seriously?

I am saying the polls are such that short of assassination, plot or giant meteor that Trump is on his way to a crushing defeat across the entire country. I am further saying that Secretary Clinton is acting very much like she believes that as well.

[maraxus2]

I am saying the polls are such that short of assassination, plot or giant meteor that Trump is on his way to a crushing defeat across the entire country. I am further saying that Secretary Clinton is acting very much like she believes that as well.

Ah, I misunderstood. On that, we're agreed, especially since Trump could very well crater worse than his polling indicates.

[Q99]

One under-reported story is Hillary's approval has been rising. Some still have her down at 42, but others as high as 49, and a Fox news poll had her at 47 (and vs 51 disapprove, only net -4!).

While for awhile they were both 'historically bad' and in the negative double digits, now Hillary is in the single digit net disapproval, while Trump is averaging -25.

[Lord Revan]

I wonder if that has something with Clinton trying to improve her image while Trump seems to spend most the election campaign munching on his foot.

[Q99]

People haven't really paid attention to her doing so, but yea, she's worked on it and I suppose that builds up! Weird to think of favorability rising late in a very negative race.
---

Obama endorses in 150 downballot races

[Flagg]

The election appears to be hers to lose unless unprecedented levels of shenanigans are deployed or the polls are completely wrong.

Right, like in Ohio during election day 2004 where Kerry lost the state despite almost every poll pre-election and exit polling had him winning the state.

[Q99]

The election appears to be hers to lose unless unprecedented levels of shenanigans are deployed or the polls are completely wrong.

Right, like in Ohio during election day 2004 where Kerry lost the state despite almost every poll pre-election and exit polling had him winning the state.

Only in not just one state, but... *counts* .... 4 at minimum, likely 5 or 6, all in the same direction.

[eyl]

I wonder if that has something with Clinton trying to improve her image while Trump seems to spend most the election campaign munching on his foot.

May also be due to potential Trump voters becoming disenchanted with him - Clinton's negative favorability is primarily due to low favorability primarily with white men - who are Trump's primary demographic - while she has positive favorability with non-white voters.

[Q99]

Hillary supporters are casting affirmative votes for her. Trump supporters are casting anti-Hillary votes.

Which both plays in to favorability, and hopefully also is a sign that there won't be a big Trumpist movement after, with luck most will abandon him when he loses.

[Elfdart]

Following that through, he is saying that Secretary Clinton is also pre-supposing that a Trump victory is only possible via large-scale voter fraud efforts. Given the current poll results, that does seem reasonable. The election appears to be hers to lose unless unprecedented levels of shenanigans are deployed or the polls are completely wrong.

Since Trump's flunkies haven't already produced footage of Hillary in a bukake video, it's safe to assume that no such video exists -and that's about the only thing that could possibly stop the election from being a blowout.

[Q99]

Reporters launch sting operation on both campaigns, offering $2 million in donations supposed from China.

Hillary's campaign ignored the offer. Trump's had an official actively offer help on how to disguise it's foreign origins.

[Q99]

Five GOPers in races are threatening lawsuits for ads tying them to Trump to get them pulled, under the grounds that doing so is basically defamation.


This election is just wow.

Also in more minor news Donald's take a day off on Wednesday to visit the opening of his Washington Hotel, on the penultimate week of the campaign.

[Alyrium Denryle]

Reporters launch sting operation on both campaigns, offering $2 million in donations supposed from China.

Hillary's campaign ignored the offer. Trump's had an official actively offer help on how to disguise it's foreign origins.

Five GOPers in races are threatening lawsuits for ads tying them to Trump to get them pulled, under the grounds that doing so is basically defamation.


This election is just wow.

Also in more minor news Donald's take a day off on Wednesday to visit the opening of his Washington Hotel, on the penultimate week of the campaign.

Do post the article text next time. Thanks.

[Knife]

So closing in on two weeks. Got my mail in ballot. It is still a long shot, but a lot shorter than normal, but it looks like there is a slim chance of flipping Utah blue. Well in some parts anyways. Ticking those boxes and crossing my fingers. Hoping to ditch Mike Lee, Bishop will probably win though. State wise I think anything I can vote for will stay red, but I'm very interested in seeing how some of the other districts go. My House district is GOPer and running uncontested. Boo.

[Q99]

So closing in on two weeks. Got my mail in ballot. It is still a long shot, but a lot shorter than normal, but it looks like there is a slim chance of flipping Utah blue. Well in some parts anyways. Ticking those boxes and crossing my fingers. Hoping to ditch Mike Lee, Bishop will probably win though. State wise I think anything I can vote for will stay red, but I'm very interested in seeing how some of the other districts go. My House district is GOPer and running uncontested. Boo.

I heard Democrat internal polling actually puts Donald in 3rd and Hillary close to McMullin. So.... maybe!

[The Romulan Republic]

So closing in on two weeks. Got my mail in ballot. It is still a long shot, but a lot shorter than normal, but it looks like there is a slim chance of flipping Utah blue. Well in some parts anyways. Ticking those boxes and crossing my fingers. Hoping to ditch Mike Lee, Bishop will probably win though. State wise I think anything I can vote for will stay red, but I'm very interested in seeing how some of the other districts go. My House district is GOPer and running uncontested. Boo.

I heard Democrat internal polling actually puts Donald in 3rd and Hillary close to McMullin. So.... maybe!

Taking fucking Utah from the Republicans would be the cherry on top of this whole damn election.

About the only thing that could surpass it would be some miracle giving us Texas.

[Elheru Aran]

Right now I would hazard a guess that McMullin and Hillary will split Utah. Trump will come out the poor third in that contest.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Right now I would hazard a guess that McMullin and Hillary will split Utah. Trump will come out the poor third in that contest.

I very, very much doubt this.
McMullian will no doubt get MORE votes than Hillary. but Trump WILL still win Utah,

[Elheru Aran]

Right now I would hazard a guess that McMullin and Hillary will split Utah. Trump will come out the poor third in that contest.

I very, very much doubt this.
McMullian will no doubt get MORE votes than Hillary. but Trump WILL still win Utah,

You don't think the straight-arrow Mormons won't be quietly horrified at all the scandals that have plagued Trump of late and vote for one of their own?

[Crossroads Inc.]

Nate Silver has Trump at 76% to win..
so, that is who I am trusting as of right now.