Trump Dump: Foreign Policy (Thread I)

[Tvpnbb]

I just noticed this: both of these Trump policy threads spell Thread as "Thead". This should probably be fixed.

[Napoleon the Clown]

I just noticed this: both of these Trump policy threads spell Thread as "Thead". This should probably be fixed.

Honestly, typos are very fitting for this administration. I think they should not only remain, but become part of every future Trump Dump.

[Dalton]

Hate to disappoint but that glaring error has been fixed.

[Khaat]

I just noticed this: both of these Trump policy threads spell Thread as "Thead". This should probably be fixed.

Honestly, typos are very fitting for this administration. I think they should not only remain, but become part of every future Trump Dump.

Well, hells! If that's the attitude, posts should be limited to 126 characters!

[Tribble]

I just noticed this: both of these Trump policy threads spell Thread as "Thead". This should probably be fixed.

Honestly, typos are very fitting for this administration. I think they should not only remain, but become part of every future Trump Dump.

Well, hells! If that's the attitude, posts should be limited to 126 characters!

And include a pound sign... sorry, I meant "hashtag"

[mr friendly guy]

Well Trump now wants to unilaterally do something about North Korea if China doesn't. Given how well his Muslim bans, er I mean plans to make America safer, and his health care bill turned out, I wouldn't be holding my breath. Speaking of how he wants to compel convince China to help, "its all about trade." Yeah, that totally worked on the Taiwan issue didn't it Trump? You folded after China just said "we have serious reservations about that," despite claiming that China was "raping" the US on trade.

Trump promises a lot, but so far most of it hasn't eventuated, either because he didn't really try (Taiwan issue) or because he tried and it still failed (healthcare bill, Muslim ban etc). With any luck given his short attention span, he would be moving on to the next failed project after the first couple didn't work out and too busy fucking things up to start a trade war.

[The Romulan Republic]

The thing is, Trump as Commander in Chief could simply order a strike on North Korea any time he wanted, and the Judiciary isn't going to be able to simply overturn it like they did the Muslim ban, and Congress... well, maybe Congress could vote against military action, but at that point its a moot point because we're already at war, and possibly with China as well if we launched a first strike against North Korea. In fact, given his stated views, I dare say that I detect Bannon's hand in this, and that that is precisely what he wants- to provoke a war with China. And I don't doubt Trump could be sold on the idea, if only in the hopes that being a wartime President will allow him to claim expanded powers, provide a distraction from his scandals, and boost his failing poll numbers.

If we're lucky, its all just talk, and the Idiot In Chief will just drift off to some other piece of stupidity. But if he really wants a war, he can start one, their's fuck all anyone can do about it short of a mutiny in the armed forces, and I don't really doubt that Bannon, at least, is dead serious about planning for war with China.

[Pelranius]

A unilateral strike by America on the Norks might derail our alliance with South Korea.

[Ralin]

A unilateral strike by America on the Norks might derail our alliance with South Korea.

Not really. Trump would just require them to keep up their end of things regardless.

[Flagg]

A unilateral strike by America on the Norks might derail our alliance with South Korea.

Not really. Trump would just require them to keep up their end of things regardless.

Yeah, and Seoul gets flattened by shells from a huge amount of North Korean artillery aimed and well within range of South Korea's high population capital city, unless I'm mistaken.

[Ralin]

Yeah, and Seoul gets flattened by shells from a huge amount of North Korean artillery aimed and well within range of South Korea's high population capital city, unless I'm mistaken.

I'm told that's exaggerated, between the amount of time South Korea has had to prepare and the likely poor state of the artillery in question.

But yeah, what is the South Korean government going to do? Force US troops to leave their bases in the country? Forbid new troops from coming in? When you make an alliance like this is doesn't end until the stronger country says that it ends.

[Flagg]

Yeah, and Seoul gets flattened by shells from a huge amount of North Korean artillery aimed and well within range of South Korea's high population capital city, unless I'm mistaken.

I'm told that's exaggerated, between the amount of time South Korea has had to prepare and the likely poor state of the artillery in question.

Yeah, I tend to take claims like the one I mentioned with a cube (as opposed to a grain) of salt since I've only ever heard it mentioned in a "common knowledge about North and South Korea" manner which is why I gave myself an "out" .

But yeah, what is the South Korean government going to do? Force US troops to leave their bases in the country? Forbid new troops from coming in? When you make an alliance like this is doesn't end until the stronger country says that it ends.

Pretty much. Though from what I know (this is anecdotal information over a decade old so make of it what you will) relayed to me from an army vet who'd been stationed in South Korea (I don't know exactly where and if he told me it's been long forgotten) who was a damned good guy who I loved working with because between shooting the shit (that was never exaggerated), I knew he had my back and I was good work-friends with while I was working security (which he only did while going through the police academy and is now a cop, and if even 10% more cops were like him this country would suck much less). Anyway, he pretty much told me that if the North Koreans invaded their orders were to take as much shit as their vehicles could carry (he worked in the motor pool) and drive South as fast as possible or get ready to be overrun.

[Ralin]

Anyway, he pretty much told me that if the North Koreans invaded their orders were to take as much shit as their vehicles could carry (he worked in the motor pool) and drive South as fast as possible or get ready to be overrun.

Way I understand it that touches on one of the reasons why it's basically not possible for North Korea to conquer the south at this point. Even in a best case scenario there's too much urban sprawl for their tanks and artillery to deal with. They flat out wouldn't be able to get past all the rubble quickly enough.

[Gandalf]

On top of sheer impracticality, a good reason for the DPRK to conquer the ROK eludes me. Even if they magically don't level the place driving through it, and have enough of the People's Army left over that they can effectively control right up to the shorelines, what then? It's a fuckton more mouths to feed, and I can't see how that gives them any more leverage to beat sanctions or improve the economy sufficiently to feed those new citizens.

[LadyTevar]

On top of sheer impracticality, a good reason for the DPRK to conquer the ROK eludes me. Even if they magically don't level the place driving through it, and have enough of the People's Army left over that they can effectively control right up to the shorelines, what then? It's a fuckton more mouths to feed, and I can't see how that gives them any more leverage to beat sanctions or improve the economy sufficiently to feed those new citizens.

This also goes the other way: ROK doesn't want to invade DPRK because then they'd have to figure out how to under decades of mismanagement and near-famine, as well as get all the infrastructure built up.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah, absolutely no one benefits from such a war. The only people who would push it are warmongers who desire it for its own sake, and perhaps those who aspire to the powers and prestige that usually accompany a wartime Presidency.

[Ralin]

On top of sheer impracticality, a good reason for the DPRK to conquer the ROK eludes me.

Fulfilling their holy duty to unify the Korean people and remove the American Yankee imperialist taint from the peninsula. How else can they live up to the example of the Dear Leader Kim Jong-il, who literally died from overwork due to his unceasing efforts on behalf of the Korean people?

It's a fuckton more mouths to feed, and I can't see how that gives them any more leverage to beat sanctions or improve the economy sufficiently to feed those new citizens.

As Kim il-Sung said before physically ascending to heaven but after having invented desks, people starve because they have the wrong ideology.

[Elheru Aran]

There's probably a general notion that the DPRK could more or less take the ROK without damaging its infrastructure for manufacturing *too* much. I can see there being explicit instructions along those lines-- "don't shoot up the factories" or something-- in order to have some way to resume production immediately after conquest.

No idea how practical that is, of course, given that the world would probably immediately lay down a massive embargo on Korean goods after that point...

[LaCroix]

They could mobilize 1.5 million soldiers(+reserves) and their 5.5 million of their militia (which is training 4 hours a week, so it could be called up pretty much at the blink of an eye) to swarm - that's about 1 soldier per 9 South Korean inhabitants.

SK has ~700k active troops, and more than 3k reserves. Their reserve would most likely be able to squish the militia and stop the regulars cold, but I don't know how quickly they could mobilize it if the Norks start moving. Fast enough to prevent capture of Seoul?
Swarming Seoul completely is less than a 50 km march, so it's pretty sure that the city will be occupied by the time the airforce and counter-artillery has managed to stop the shelling of if. Which also means they can't spare forces to strike the advancing force. So unless the active troops stationed in that area can stop that human avalanche, they will then have to street-fight it in a tightly populated city.

Which removes most of their equipment advantage and leaves them with 10 million hostages and/or refugees to deal on top of it.
I'd hate to take that fight.

[SCRawl]

SK has ~700k active troops, and more than 3k reserves. Their reserve would most likely be able to squish the militia and stop the regulars cold, but I don't know how quickly they could mobilize it if the Norks start moving.

Maybe I'm going senile, but I think that at least one of these things must be a typo. A reserve force of 3000 troops can stop a force a thousand times its size? Are the Norks carrying wooden spears or something?

[LaCroix]

SK has ~700k active troops, and more than 3k reserves. Their reserve would most likely be able to squish the militia and stop the regulars cold, but I don't know how quickly they could mobilize it if the Norks start moving.

Maybe I'm going senile, but I think that at least one of these things must be a typo. A reserve force of 3000 troops can stop a force a thousand times its size? Are the Norks carrying wooden spears or something?

It's a typo, but I do believe that the Nork militia are pretty close to that level of equipment.

It's supposed to be 3 Million... actually almost 3.5 million reserve for SK.

[Highlord Laan]

Anyway, he pretty much told me that if the North Koreans invaded their orders were to take as much shit as their vehicles could carry (he worked in the motor pool) and drive South as fast as possible or get ready to be overrun.

Way I understand it that touches on one of the reasons why it's basically not possible for North Korea to conquer the south at this point. Even in a best case scenario there's too much urban sprawl for their tanks and artillery to deal with. They flat out wouldn't be able to get past all the rubble quickly enough.

There's also the whole "inside 24hrs, the US will stuff a boot so far up NK's ass they'll kick out Kim Jong's teeth" thing. People think the Gulf War's Highway of Death was bad? As condensed as the norks forces would be just trying the advance, the Air Force and Navy attack pilots would have a field day. It'd be an outright slaughter, especially since there'd be no way for the norks to hide, and certainly not protect their forces massing. The only possible deterrent Kim Jong has is the possibility of a nuke that may or may not work, and the moment he even orders an active launch China and Russia wipe NK off the face of the earth. Because nobody wants WWIII to break out.

There is a reason everyone sane tries to keep that flabby jackass Kim from doing something stupid. If it means we have to put up with him constantly mouth-shitting in public and flicking his tiny dick in our direction, so be it.

[Simon_Jester]

Although one key point is that the Highway of Death came after a massive buildup of US air power in the Persian Gulf region, plus a major campaign to suppress everything remotely capable of doing air defense. All this had been going on for months, creating a situation where retreating Iraqi forces were completely exposed to aerial bombing.

In the opening phase of a war, the US won't have had the luxury of super-concentrating all its air power in and around North Korea. And we won't have so thoroughly suppressed North Korean air defenses that we can completely ignore the prospect of them shooting back. They do still have surface to air missiles and a modest number of modern fighters, in addition to the swarm of older types.

[LaCroix]

Regarding airstrikes. People forget that thi is not the Middle east. You think the collateral damage situation in Syria is bad? Noone _really_ cares about it, to be honest. The SK forces, on the other hand, WILL care if airstrikes are killing SK civillians.

By the time the US can bring the air power to bear, chances are that a good portion of that army is already inside Seoul. Dense city, and 10 million hostages, roads full of refugees, with the NORKS moving along with them...

Target rich environment? Sure.
"Good" target rich environment? Less so.

[Ralin]

I dunno, I have to think that if we're at the point where there is a North Korean army in the streets of Seoul the South Korean population is going to recognize that the situation will not be resolved without a lot of their countrymen dying one way or another. Which is not to say that they'd be happy about it, but that's war for you.

If said war was touched off by the president of the United States feeling the need to prove how big his penis was, now that's going to make people really goddamn angry.