General North Korea thread

[mr friendly guy]

http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/indon ... 93bb2ec1d7

THE Indonesian woman who is one of the suspects in the killing of North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un’s half brother said she was paid $90 for what she believed was a prank, an Indonesian official said Saturday. Siti Aisyah also told authorities she did not want her parents to see her in custody, Andriano Erwin, Indonesia’s deputy ambassador to Malaysia, said one day after Malaysia revealed that VX nerve agent was used in the bizarre killing at Kuala Lumpur’s airport.

Hire an assassin for $90.

[LaCroix]

You are assuming they are competent, and part of the NK secret service. I am still assuming they were just useful idiots, and may even duped useful idiots. They could have handed them the spraycans just to make sure they don't fuck up (giving them area effect).

[Raj Ahten]

I'm kind of glad that the VX was applied via the cloth and not the spray. Imagine someone spraying Vx in a public airport.

Well it would save on paying your agents but this is frigging clown shoes to use VX of all things to kill him. It's complicated, it raises questions on how they got it in country because unless it was domestic believe you me there are some smugglers on the boarders taking a long look at retirement locations for helping the NK's get that in country.

Well maybe deniability wasn't on the top of their list of operational concerns and the target dieing horribly was. Kim is talking more to a domestic audience here and the message is run where ever, it doesn't matter because my people will have you poisoned in public no fucks given.

Besides it's not like international assassination is all that subtle at times. Just look at Putin's use of polonium or how the Israelis killed that guy from Hamas in a Dubai hotel in 2010. Or how the US blows up everything in sight with drones.

[mr friendly guy]

You are assuming they are competent, and part of the NK secret service. I am still assuming they were just useful idiots, and may even duped useful idiots. They could have handed them the spraycans just to make sure they don't fuck up (giving them area effect).

Your sarcasm detector is broken my friend.

[LadyTevar]

And North Korea is still refusing to identify the deceased as anything other than the (false) name on the passport.

[mr friendly guy]

Now its bordering close to hostage taking.

Tit for tat

MALAYSIA has dramatically prevented North Korean diplomats from leaving the country because they say Pyongyang has “manipulated” the murder case involving the death of the leader of the reclusive state Kim Jong Un’s half brother.
Malaysia banned North Korean Embassy officials and staff from leaving on Tuesday, soon after North Korea barred all Malaysians from exiting that country. Relations between the countries have been disintegrating since Kim Jong Nam was attacked with a nerve agent at a Kuala Lumpur airport terminal February 13.

Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi says Malaysia did not want to retaliate but added, “When we are confronted with a country that has breached international diplomatic norms and ethics, we have no choice.”
He said Malaysia was forced to act because North Korea had “manipulated what we call a murder case.”
Hamidi announced the decision soon after Pyongyang said Malaysians couldn’t leave North Korea.
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said North Korea is “effectively holding our citizens hostage”.
Najib has called an emergency meeting of the National Security Council to discuss the crisis.
“We will not hesitate to take all measures necessary when they are threatened”, he said.
A Malaysian official told Reuters that the North Korean diplomats at the embassy will not be allowed to leave the compound.

The North’s state media said Tuesday that its Foreign Ministry had notified the Malaysian Embassy in the country of its decision, saying the ban will be valid until safety of North Korean nationals in Malaysia is guaranteed.

It is not known how many Malaysians are in the North and whether the North Korean decision also covers Malaysian diplomats there.
On Monday, the North said it had ordered Malaysia’s ambassador out of the country in a tit-for-tat after Malaysia expelled North Korea’s envoy over the killing of Kim Jong Nam.

<snip the rest>

[AniThyng]

On mobile so nuance might be lacking but I appreciate that my government has the stones to stand up to NK but am irritated by domestic opposition viewing everything done from the angle of "the ruling party can do nothing right" even when it ceases to make any logical sense.

[wautd]

How many Malaysians are estimated to be in NK?

[AniThyng]

No more than a dozen from local news reports, 2 UN employees and the others are embassy staff

[Raj Ahten]

So anyone think Trump's ill conceived air strikes in Syria are likely to deter North Korea in any way? My money is that they accelerate their nuclear and missile program if anything.

[The Romulan Republic]

No shit. Trump has just signalled to every country on Earth that he's a loose canon (as if we didn't already know that) who will do a one-eighty on his policy toward a given country almost overnight. I honestly couldn't blame the North Koreans (or anyone else) for arming up at this point.

Not that I think the prospect of nuclear war will deter Trump, because their is a considerably less than zero possibility of strikes against Assad in Syria leading to that with Russia, and he did it anyway.

[Flagg]

So anyone think Trump's ill conceived air strikes in Syria are likely to deter North Korea in any way? My money is that they accelerate their nuclear and missile program if anything.

Just like Iran (a country I feel is justified in developing nukes since the country on their western border is a barely functioning US puppet state and the country on their eastern border is a barely functioning US puppet state also under US occupation) I wouldn't blame them. Though NK is just as unpredictable as President Pussygrabber is these days.

[Broomstick]

So....

The Portly One is gearing up for another nuclear test

The Orange One is threatening a pre-emptive strike to prevent that.

[The Romulan Republic]

My concern is: if Trumpolini launches a preemptive strike (nuclear or conventional) on NK, how likely is it that we end up at war with China (which is what Bannon pretty openly wants)?

[Gandalf]

My concern is: if Trumpolini launches a preemptive strike (nuclear or conventional) on NK, how likely is it that we end up at war with China (which is what Bannon pretty openly wants)?

The PRC may not like it, but they don't have a lot of recourse if the US decides to start dropping conventional bombs on the DPRK. I've honestly no idea what anyone's response to a nuke would be.

The worst case scenario is that a strike by the US makes the DPRK fire whatever they actually have against the ROK, and as a result the peninsula is in ruins, and therefore a lot of refugees in between Japan, China and Russia. The US would eliminate an enemy, but lose a few allies in the process as East Asia has its own refugee catastrophe.

[The Romulan Republic]

I can't recall the source, but I remember reading that China had an official policy that they would not support North Korea in a war if it was the aggressor. Can anyone comment on weather that was/is still the case?

[Patroklos]

My concern is: if Trumpolini launches a preemptive strike (nuclear or conventional) on NK, how likely is it that we end up at war with China (which is what Bannon pretty openly wants)?

0%

[Ace Pace]

So....

The Portly One is gearing up for another nuclear test

The Orange One is threatening a pre-emptive strike to prevent that.

The NBC report that mentioned a pre-emptive strike is pretty much being denied by other networks, I wouldn't put much stock into it.

[Ralin]

The worst case scenario is that a strike by the US makes the DPRK fire whatever they actually have against the ROK, and as a result the peninsula is in ruins, and therefore a lot of refugees in between Japan, China and Russia. The US would eliminate an enemy, but lose a few allies in the process as East Asia has its own refugee catastrophe.

So in other words nothing the administration cares about.

I think the thing you have to bear in mind to understand Trump's foreign policy decisions, aside from the fact that he's making them up as he goes along depending on whether he feels his tiny hands have been insulted, is that Trump believes that America is literally invincible. None of the consequences of military action ultimately matter, because America cannot be beaten except by exploiting America's awesome generosity and benevolence. Which is of course a weakness CEO Trump is more than capable of overcoming.

[The Romulan Republic]

My concern is: if Trumpolini launches a preemptive strike (nuclear or conventional) on NK, how likely is it that we end up at war with China (which is what Bannon pretty openly wants)?

0%

Since it does not violate any laws of nature for such an event to occur, we can safely say that the possibility is higher than zero. Maybe not high overall, but I do find the common smug self-assurance that war between nuclear powers can never occur under any circumstances rather unsettling. I believe that a big part of the reason why it has never happened is because people were afraid enough of the possibility to take steps to avoid it and support policies that made it less likely- which made people more confident that it can never happen, which ironically increases the likelihood that it will.

[FireNexus]

The Chinese and Donnie J Douchebag have clearly come to an agreement on North Korea recently. Trump is moving a fucking aircraft carrier to the Korean Peninsula and threatening a pre-emptive strike and the Chinese are condemning... North Korea. Yeah, if the Chinese were going all Russia-re-Syria about the US violating sovereignty, war might be a non-zero concern. But their uncharacteristic silence and withdrawal of support backs up Patrokolos. There may be war on the Korean Peninsula, but the Chinese aren't going to make a fuss over it.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, that's both horrible (because its a needless and likely small-scale nuclear war) and reassuring (if China isn't going to fight us over it).

On the other hand... well, North Korea has been being belligerent for a while. And sooner or later, they're likely going to either push things too far, or collapse due to internal problems. If its going to happen, maybe its better to bite the bullet now and fight that war while their nuclear arsenal is still relatively limited.

I just really don't want Trumpolini to be the one to do it, for several reasons. First, because he's incompetent when it comes to foreign affairs,. Second, because it will deflect attention from his scandals and domestic policy failures. Third, because depending on how he times it, a "war-time President" popularity boost could easily ensure his reelection (which would do tremendous damage to our democracy, Constitution, and economy), not to mention the possibility of Trump gaining more wartime powers. And fourth, because any successes he has will play into his narrative of being a tough guy strong man who gets things done.

Starting foreign wars is always beneficial to would-be tyrants.

[FireNexus]

I don't disagree, but frankly if you're talking about the necessity of violence to prevent NKorean nuclear expansion prior to regime collapse, we don't have time to wait for Trump to leave. Barring an incredible stroke of luck, he's there for four years. With only mild and totally foreseeable bad luck, he's there for eight. North Korea will definitely be a full-fledged regional nuclear power in eight years, and possibly in four.

I don't know that war is necessary, and I suspect that North Korea will fall apart on their own if Russia just stops backing them, but if you take the premise that a war before they manage to become fully nuclear and that they won't collapse before that as a given, we have the cards we were dealt and that means Trump.

Hopefully it doesn't come to war and Kim is deposed and the North Koreans become happy and productive people with high standards of living and higher levels of education. I'm not as optimistic as I once was, though. And I expect this thread to be renamed "General Korean War Thread" by Monday.

[Broomstick]

I don't know that war is necessary, and I suspect that North Korea will fall apart on their own if Russia just stops backing them, but if you take the premise that a war before they manage to become fully nuclear and that they won't collapse before that as a given, we have the cards we were dealt and that means Trump.

As far as I know Russia is not backing NK and hasn't since the USSR collapsed. It's China that backs them.

And yeah, IF it's a priority we must halt their progress in nuclear armaments prior to them achieving both reliable bombs and reliable delivery systems we may have to do it under Trump. I'm hoping that Trump is willing/able to delegate this to actual military people rather than try to micromanage it himself. I also hope to god that we actually have negotiated something with the Chinese to keep them out of the conflict because if this gets started the possibility of escalation, and what it can escalate to, is very very ugly.

Hopefully it doesn't come to war and Kim is deposed and the North Koreans become happy and productive people with high standards of living and higher levels of education. I'm not as optimistic as I once was, though. And I expect this thread to be renamed "General Korean War Thread" by Monday.

Kim isn't getting deposed any time soon, and if he did I'd expect some other "Kim" to replace him.

I am really not feeling optimistic at this point. I hope I'm wrong, I really hope I'm wrong both on a general level and because people I care about are living in Seoul right now, and their family (as well as myself) are already dealing with enough death right now. They have bug-out plans, but the question is always when you should pull the trigger on those. Recent events seem to really be cranking up the tension.

[The Romulan Republic]

I don't disagree, but frankly if you're talking about the necessity of violence to prevent NKorean nuclear expansion prior to regime collapse, we don't have time to wait for Trump to leave. Barring an incredible stroke of luck, he's there for four years. With only mild and totally foreseeable bad luck, he's there for eight. North Korea will definitely be a full-fledged regional nuclear power in eight years, and possibly in four.

I don't know that war is necessary, and I suspect that North Korea will fall apart on their own if Russia just stops backing them, but if you take the premise that a war before they manage to become fully nuclear and that they won't collapse before that as a given, we have the cards we were dealt and that means Trump.

Hopefully it doesn't come to war and Kim is deposed and the North Koreans become happy and productive people with high standards of living and higher levels of education. I'm not as optimistic as I once was, though. And I expect this thread to be renamed "General Korean War Thread" by Monday.

The thing is... if we have a major foreign war, and Trump manages to not completely botch it (and we better hope he doesn't botch it), then he most likely goes down in history as a hero and a "strong leader", meaning that the Alt. Right gains further legitimacy as a respectable mainstream political ideology, Trump most likely wins a second term handily (barring unequivocal evidence that he committed treason, or something comparable) and the capital to push more authoritarian policies, and our Constitution faces an existential threat.

That might very well be worse for the United States, in the long-run, than a fully-fledged nuclear North Korea. And given the disproportionate power of the United States, it might very well be worse for the entire world.

This situation is a shit sandwich any way you look at it.

Edit: And the Democrats will be in the position of having to either support the war or appear unpatriotic. The former will cost them votes with progressives, the latter with Centrists.

It may seem tasteless to view the prospects of a renewed Korean War in such political terms, but it is an issue. Because the walking corruption scandal that is Donald Trump is not going to stop being a threat to our civil liberties any time soon.