SCRawl wrote:If Germany can't rely on her allies, what's the alternative? A military buildup? Wouldn't that make her neighbours a little nervous, given how that played out in the 1930s?
No actually what Germany is and has been doing is letting the 1920s and 1930s play out all over again, with Russia taking the place of Germany, but largely the same everyone else. Through unilateral disarmament they are making themselves extremely vulnerable to an enemy that should not otherwise be anywhere near so threatening. Which means a lot more trouble happens that simply would not. Particularly not so threatening as for a full scale Russian conventional invasion of NATO to be plausible, which right now it bloody is.
German spending, and others, is so low its forces are not effective, they are not worth what they count up to be on paper, the hollow force problem. They would be devastated in combat because they lack key assumed capabilities (which in this case included real fundmental stuff like vehicle radios that work in 2014) This has come out in more and more detail, and still not addressed on any real scale, in the case of Germany some of the small increases since 2015 only served to restore money Germany cut even AFTER the Ukraine war began. And that's just fucking ridiculous.
Either Germany and everyone else lagging needs to spend more, or they need to openly and clearly admit, in you know the style democaries are supposed to follow, they don't believe the threat is real, in which case they also certainly don't need US troops in Europe. Certainly not on a large sustained scale involving combat brigades and fighter wings. Which would mean indeed NATO is obsolete, and disbanding it or more tightly defining its role would very certainly reduce tensions with Russia, assuming you think appeasing Russians, another brilliant 1930s concept, is a good idea ever. The Germans rather openly do think that.
Appeasement from a position of strength has merit, because its the same as showing mercy to all. From a position of weakness it only invites the other side to demand more. Its human nature on that.
Its the sustained dishonestly that annoys me most, NATO had a chance a few years ago to disclaim the 2% level, and choose not to do so. They didn't because they fucking knew that doing so would certainly cause US support to drop, because it was bloody obvious that only the US kept Putin in check at all, and because they bloody well know that the 2% limit was not arbitrary when it was agreed in the first place. Any of them still whining about it is as bad as Trump's denying the sky, its an insult to anyone capable of reading anything ever. They've had ample time to come up with new plans, new budgets, its time for results or time to shove it.
"This cult of special forces is as sensible as to form a Royal Corps of Tree Climbers and say that no soldier who does not wear its green hat with a bunch of oak leaves stuck in it should be expected to climb a tree"
— Field Marshal William Slim 1956
