Ralin wrote: ↑2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: ↑2017-07-09 03:42pm
What's the risk vs. benefit ratio here? Assuming the Nork generals aren't completely stupid they know any real confrontation between them and the US is likely to be a curbstomp battle. They're decently comfortable under the status quo, are they really inclined to upset the applecart?
What are you even saying here? Clearly they weren’t satisfied by the status quo. They wouldn’t have spent the past decade or so pursuing nuclear weapons if they were. And how did we go from “North Korea’s leadership probably wants more wealth and power” to “LOL North Korea totally can’t beat the US?”
Naw, right now having nukes lessens the risk of invasion (according to common wisdom) and protects their little playground. They developed them to maintain the status quo and in an effort to command more respect or something of the sort.
And if the US took off the restraints and totally unloaded on North Korea yes, the US would win. The US hasn't fought in an unrestrained manner since WWII. So I was in error in saying "any" confrontation but if they did drop a nuke on the US I would expect a reply in kind, and the US has better tech in that respect.
Ralin wrote: ↑2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: ↑2017-07-09 03:42pm Yes, that's China forty years ago in a society that even then had much more information about the outside world and didn't go to such lengths to demonize the US.
And that changes the point…how?
The North Korean populace has been indoctrinated from birth that Americans are evil and intent on destroying them. They get little to no information to contradict that programming. I think people continually discount the effect that would have in a conflict.
Ralin wrote: ↑2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: ↑2017-07-09 03:42pmYes, but how will take for a South Korean nuclear program to provide a deterrent? The US does not share that tech, even with its allies. They would have to start from scratch and either do the research themselves or try to convince a current nuclear power to help them. Meanwhile, the North Koreans will keep on working on their own program.
70+ year old technology. From a country that’s way wealthier and more developed than the DPRK.
And....so? Other nations have tried to develop their own nukes despite opposition and it takes years. South Korea has to build the necessary infrastructure and do some research, that will take time and wealth can only jumpstart it so much. Meanwhile, the North will continue to improve and expand their arsenal. The South will be at a disadvantage for a long time.
And even if the South remains under a nuclear deterrent that's not going to stop the North from wreaking destruction with conventional weaponry if they choose to do so. Even if the South wins in the end that will be no consolation to the dead, maimed, and the survivors living in the shattered remains of the cities. I can't believe people can look at images of the ruins of a city like Mosul or the bombed out cities in Syria and remain blasé about what that means to the people caught up in the mess. Yay, we win, but Seoul is in ruins... yippee? The destruction of large swathes of Seoul by WWII era artillery has been a sufficient invasion-of-the-North deterrent for decades.
Ralin wrote: ↑2017-07-10 04:37amYou’re also assuming that American troops not being present in Korea means that they wouldn’t fall under the US’s nuclear deterrent. Which is a very dubious jump.
In today's world I don't think the US will use nukes first, so that would mean the North would have to bomb the South with them first, which, again, means a godawful mess.
Ralin wrote: ↑2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: ↑2017-07-09 03:42pmWhat's to stop the North Koreans from launching a pre-emptive strike if the US has pulled out and the north has nukes and the south does not?
The South Korean military. And the same factors that have prevented nuclear weapons from being used in every other conflict since 1945.
I'm not convinced that the South Korean military by itself is enough to prevent a resumption of shooting even if by themselves they're capable of eventually winning an armed conflict. I'm not convinced the South Koreans believe that, either. Frankly, I don't know what the South Koreans collectively feel about the US presence in their country because I don't trust the information generated within the US about the matter. I know there's a segment of the population that's pretty fiercely anti-US but I don't know how much influence they have over national policy. The US government maintains that South Korea wants us there but I'm not sure that's how South Korea sees it, maybe they feel they can't get rid of the US, we're a necessary evil, we're an unnecessary evil... I don't trust what the American media has to say about it, and don't have a good source for the actual Korean viewpoint.
Ralin wrote: ↑2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: ↑2017-07-09 03:42pm This is not a regime that shies away from killing people.
Thank you Broomstick for your reminder that the Kim dynasty is made up of bad people with a history of doing very immoral things.
People seem to forget that, or assume the people running the place think like us or have similar values or value the same things. They don't.
Ralin wrote: ↑2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: ↑2017-07-09 03:42pmTourism would be a lot more plausible if they didn't have a habit of detaining tourists and subjecting them to years of hard labor for what in other places are considered minor offenses (I'm not talking about the recent Warmbier case, I'm talking about a much more extensive list of people detained over the past).
And do you honestly think that NK would NOT use slave labor to bring in foreign capital? They already do that. They already use slave labor to extract natural resources. Where is the incentive to change that?
Again, thank you for reminding us that the Kim dynasty is made up of bad people with a history of doing very immoral things. I’m not sure what your point here is. Are you suggesting that because the DPRK is led by people with an established history of doing very immoral things that means that they are somehow uniquely impossible to engage in trade and other business relations with?
Not impossible, but uniquely difficult. They have a long habit of doing back-stabby things even to their "ally" China. Would you do business with someone that might decide to hold your employees in that country hostage? Or if you send them something they'll not only keep the shipment but all the vehicle it came in? (Keeping trains China used to send coal to North Korea in July 2006 being an example). Who the hell in the business world wants to take that sort of risk? China has reason to prop up the regime, even if they steal entire trains, and the South Koreans have reasons to keep trying to find a way to co-exist with North Korea but who the hell else has a reason to deal with them?
Ralin wrote: ↑2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: ↑2017-07-09 03:42pmSuccess wouldn't be guaranteed, but get real, that's how this whole mess started - the north invaded the south with the intention of taking over.
Yeah, like sixty years ago. What’s your point?
We view the war as over. The North Koreans do not.
Ralin wrote: ↑2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: ↑2017-07-09 03:42pm If the UK "fucked off" as you put it what makes you think they wouldn't try it again?
The complete unfeasibility of the DRPK conquering the Republic of Korea, owing to the general strength of the South Korean military and logistical factors like how badly they’d be bogged down in urban areas like Seoul in the event of an invasion.
I'm not convinced that the North believes that, or that it wouldn't start a multi-year quagmire.
Ralin wrote: ↑2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: ↑2017-07-09 03:42pmThe North seeks to unify the two Koreas, but under their system, not the South's.
What, exactly, has North Korea done in the past sixty years to forcibly unify the two countries under the rule of the Kim dynasty? Because I’ve read about a whole bunch of posturing and occasional outrages like shelling the odd ship or island or sending some guy with an ax to murder politicians, but nothing on the order of what you’re talking about.
The whole point of the cease-fire is that the two sides of Korea aren't shooting at each other (mostly). The whole point of the US being in South Korea is to deter a new outbreak of flying lead. What do you want them to do, invade? Bomb random places in the south? (Actually, they have engaged in a little bit of bombing over the years) Certainly the internal propaganda generated by the DPRK advocates driving out the evil American bastards and reuniting Korea under Kim. You think that's entirely fiction and the elites in the North want to embrace democracy and capitalism in direct contradiction to what they've been saying for 60+ years?
If shooting resumes it's safe to assume North Korea will try to take over the South. What else do you think would happen, an outbreak of hugging and "Kumbaya" singing?
Ralin wrote: ↑2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: ↑2017-07-09 03:42pmWhy would they do such a thing? I have no idea - I have no idea why they tired it the first time, either, but they did.
If you can’t answer really basic questions like ‘why did Kim il-Sung start the Korean War?’ then you should take that as a sign that you don’t know enough about the subject to form a good opinion or know what you’re talking about.
No, I get that they had backing from Mao and Stalin, I just don't get the reason ANYONE starts that sort of war. Maybe I just don't feel a need to kill anyone, or a need for that sort of power. I get that Kim Il Sung thought his side was the legitimate government of Korea and thought he'd be the best guy to rule, I just don't really get that mindset on an emotional level, probably because I come from a society that changes its top guy in government every 4-8 years without a war breaking out over it.
Ralin wrote: ↑2017-07-10 04:37am
Terralthra wrote: ↑2017-07-10 03:00am
South Korea developing nuclear weapons would be in direct violation of its signature to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, as would the US (or any signatory nation) helping them. It would take a massive realignment of the political situation for that to happen.
Yeah, but the ship has pretty thoroughly sailed on that issue. North Korea has nuclear weapons and isn’t giving them up. In doing so they’ve proven that it is possible to develop nuclear weapons despite serious opposition from the US, and also made a pretty good case that having a successful nuclear program is an effective away to avoid getting Operation Iraqi Freedom-ed. Treaties are only binding until someone decides that they aren’t.
If the US pulled out of South Korea I'd expect the South Koreans to say screw the treaty, we're starting a nuke program because of the yahoos up north. I don't expect nations to hold to agreements contrary to their own perceived self-interests, particularly in areas of self-defense. The rest of the treaty signers might hold to the agreement but it's been demonstrated you can develop nuclear arms without their help.