General North Korea thread

[The Romulan Republic]

North Korea test fired a missile that passed over Japan. Supposebly it broke into three different parts before impacting the ocean.

If it had broken apart just a little bit earlier over Japan, we might be locked into a conflict. As it is, who knows.

Things are not good. The best option for this Administration is to continue to just ignore them and hope they go away, which is easy. Too bad this Administration hasn't, so far as I know, picked anywhere near the best option for any of their policies and actions.

Hell, this entire administration is predicated on certain states (I will not say the American people, because the popular vote does not support that claim) making the worst possible pick for President.

[Sky Captain]

North Korea has made another test

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41139445

If magnitude 6.3 holds true it shows major advancment in yield, probably in several hundred kt range compared to previos test which was abot 10 to 20 kt.

[Exonerate]

Magnitude 6.3 explosion detected in North Korea centered around a known nuclear test site. There's still some uncertainty, but it's almost certainly a multi-stage thermonuclear weapon and could be as much as much as the equivalent of a few hundred kilotons. IMO, this just further tilts the risk calculus in the direction of not doing anything rash.

Interesting times indeed.

[The Romulan Republic]

All the more reason for Orange Kim to do something rash.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Do the Norks ever decide to not ratchet things up further than they already have, or do they believe their own press that blindly?

[Isolder74]

It's possible that they've begun buying their own nonsense or are just doing this in a fevered attempt to try and make themselves as powerful as they try to pretend they are. The problem with trotting out Nuclear Deterrence is that you have to be able to back up your rhetoric. You can't do things to constantly ratchet up tensions without possibly stopping the trap wide open. It's like waving their hand over a rat trap hopping it never goes off on their hand.

Prudence would favor the side with actual large level capability, something North Korea lacks. Even with a weapon capable of hitting the mainland USA, all they really still have is a knife pointed to the city of Seoul and the rest of South Korea.

[The Romulan Republic]

I wonder: what are the odds that they'd actually be able to get at least one missile through American missile defence systems in the near-future?

[LadyTevar]

China's President was having a meeting with several National Heads later this week. Kim's little stunt just stole his thunder AND embarrassed him, so I think China's gonna lean a bit more heavily on Kim now.

But, if Kim is stupid enough to shoot a live nuke ANYWHERE -- Seoul, Japan, into the fuckin' sea -- I think China's gonna have a boot up his ass before the US even gets our boots on.

[Broomstick]

I wonder: what are the odds that they'd actually be able to get at least one missile through American missile defence systems in the near-future?

Higher than anyone rational would like.

Yes, missile defense systems have had some success... but also failures.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I wonder: what are the odds that they'd actually be able to get at least one missile through American missile defence systems in the near-future?

Higher than anyone rational would like.

Yes, missile defense systems have had some success... but also failures.

How do they actually envision the defeat of the USA?

[Broomstick]

Honestly, I don't know. Their mindset is really alien to me.

Wild speculations: a lot of people outside the US have a hard time grasping just how big it is geographically, perhaps they think devastating a single city (or a few) is going to bring the US to its knees?

Maybe they think if they bomb us we'll give up/surrender/withdraw from their area? (Ask the Japanese how well that worked out in 1941)

Maybe they believe in divine intervention?

Maybe they think that the rest of the world will turn on the US?

I really don't know where they're going with this, but I do know that history has shown that nations can be lead into disaster by crazy - and I apply that to both North Korea and the US in this case. Either one could do something stupid at this point.

[LaCroix]

I wonder: what are the odds that they'd actually be able to get at least one missile through American missile defence systems in the near-future?

Higher than anyone rational would like.

Yes, missile defense systems have had some success... but also failures.

How do they actually envision the defeat of the USA?

They don't.
Kim&co just want to make sure they can bloody the US /South Korean /Japanese noses bad enough in order to keep their seat on the throne.
Being dangerous enough to not be invaded&ousted, and your demands not to be ignored. The ability to drop a nuke on

Seoul - 100% able,
Japan (and a lot of China - Bejing and Shanghai are pretty much the same distance - you will bet China noticed that) - over 50% likely to be able,
and the US - theoretically able, much more than planners like to,

makes it pretty unlikely for them to be invaded by a conventional force. Also - a nuke is the best (only) defense against an US fleet or a big army marching up your border.

By demonstrating ability to reach out a good distance, and the greater power of their new warheads, they pretty much made any invasion plans obsolete, if there are any.

[Broomstick]

The really stupid thing is that it was very unlikely that North Korea would be invaded prior to this nuclear build-up because there just wasn't anything in the North the US gave a damn about.

[Flagg]

The really stupid thing is that it was very unlikely that North Korea would be invaded prior to this nuclear build-up because there just wasn't anything in the North the US gave a damn about.

Wait, are you telling me that the United States of America conducts military action against sovereign countries for anything other than to spread freedom and democracy?!?!

[Ralin]

The really stupid thing is that it was very unlikely that North Korea would be invaded prior to this nuclear build-up because there just wasn't anything in the North the US gave a damn about.

...Have you even been paying attention?

[Batman]

The really stupid thing is that it was very unlikely that North Korea would be invaded prior to this nuclear build-up because there just wasn't anything in the North the US gave a damn about.

...Have you even been paying attention?

Do you have a reading comprehension problem?

[Flagg]

The really stupid thing is that it was very unlikely that North Korea would be invaded prior to this nuclear build-up because there just wasn't anything in the North the US gave a damn about.

...Have you even been paying attention?

Do you have a reading comprehension problem?

I'm not assuming anything, but Ralin may be talking about the Korean War. But that was a UN action led by the US.

It was also over 60+ yeats so, so not very relevant.

If Ralin was referring to that. Would have been nice to actually have had some content in his post.

[Gandalf]

Honestly, I don't know. Their mindset is really alien to me.

Wild speculations: a lot of people outside the US have a hard time grasping just how big it is geographically, perhaps they think devastating a single city (or a few) is going to bring the US to its knees?

Maybe they think if they bomb us we'll give up/surrender/withdraw from their area? (Ask the Japanese how well that worked out in 1941)

Maybe they believe in divine intervention?

Maybe they think that the rest of the world will turn on the US?

I really don't know where they're going with this, but I do know that history has shown that nations can be lead into disaster by crazy - and I apply that to both North Korea and the US in this case. Either one could do something stupid at this point.

Due to the last seventy years or so of US foreign policy, one need not get to North America to beat Americans. They're either already nearby or they come to you and are forced to play on your terms. Look at Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc.

Nukes/missiles change this somewhat. There may have been circumstances when a US President would be willing to trade Seoul for the sheer political magic of rolling an Abrams through Kim Il-Sung Square, and seeing all of those statues torn down. It's mid term and re-election gold! But if the tradeoff isn't Seoul, but perhaps Los Angeles, the proverbial maths of it all changes.

[Broomstick]

Nukes/missiles change this somewhat. There may have been circumstances when a US President would be willing to trade Seoul for the sheer political magic of rolling an Abrams through Kim Il-Sung Square, and seeing all of those statues torn down. It's mid term and re-election gold! But if the tradeoff isn't Seoul, but perhaps Los Angeles, the proverbial maths of it all changes.

When exactly was this time when the US was willing to "trade" Seoul?

Honestly, after a certain point the US really didn't give a damn what went on north of the DMZ, they really didn't. As I said, there is nothing in North Korea the US wants, nothing they have to offer that can't be obtained elsewhere. The US was content with the stalemate and is still willing to maintain that status quo rather than get hostile. The American public forgot about the Korean war, even more than the Vietnam one, and has zero interest in a fight in that country or rolling a tank through Pongyang. There was no real incentive to invade and spend blood and treasure there.

NOW, though, "dealing" with North Korea is starting to gain a whole new appeal what with their being able to reach the US shore.

[Ralin]

The really stupid thing is that it was very unlikely that North Korea would be invaded prior to this nuclear build-up because there just wasn't anything in the North the US gave a damn about.

...Have you even been paying attention?

Do you have a reading comprehension problem?

I should think the decades of American troops and weapons parked on the North Korean border would be a great example of why the North Korean government could reasonably infer ill will on the US's part and want to invest it weapons that could reliably deter future invasions of their country. Not just full blown regime change but also a whole range of bombing, no fly zones and other military options that would suddenly be a bad idea to pull against a country that can blast armies and cities off the face of the earth. That's not even getting into all the Axis of Evil crap and the object lesson of Iraq, both times.

If I were Kim Jong-il back in the 90s I would have invested in a nuclear program too. The past decade or so has shown how foolish it is to depend on the rationality and good will of American leadership when it comes to that sort of thing.

[Gandalf]

When exactly was this time when the US was willing to "trade" Seoul?

When Nixon ordered the strike against the DPRK in 1969.

Luckily Kissinger intervened, and told the relevant people to stand down until Nixon sobered up. I've read that this scenario happened a few times, with various countries.

[Broomstick]

OK... That was over 40 years ago. Anything since then?

[Broomstick]

I should think the decades of American troops and weapons parked on the North Korean border would be a great example of why the North Korean government could reasonably infer ill will on the US's part and want to invest it weapons that could reliably deter future invasions of their country. Not just full blown regime change but also a whole range of bombing, no fly zones and other military options that would suddenly be a bad idea to pull against a country that can blast armies and cities off the face of the earth. That's not even getting into all the Axis of Evil crap and the object lesson of Iraq, both times.

Right... And it was North Korea that invaded the South back in the 1950's, and kept troops parked on the border ever since. It's been the North engaged in assassination, kidnapping, and random missile firing around the peninsula ever since, not just against the US and the South but also as far afield as Japan. What was the South and North Korea's neighbors supposed to do? Just roll over and submit? A good slice of North Korea's problems are self-imposed. Wah-wah-wah, if they weren't such belligerent asshats shitting in their own backyard they'd have less reason to fear the rest of the world.

It is STILL the case that if the North Koreans confine themselves to their own territory they will remain unmolested.

There have long been major differences between Iraq and North Korea, not the least of which is oil. Iraq also brought invasion on itself when it invaded Kuwait. The next time around it was hardly a secret that part of the motivation for invading Iraq was the hopes that America would get access to the oil there and talk of the oil paying for the invasion. North Korea has no such resource. There is also the religious bullshit surrounding the Middle East that infests some of the US political structure that simply doesn't apply to North Korea.

Yes, North Korea had a perfectly understandable reason to maintain an army and work on weapons, but this dick-waving they chronically engage in just serves to inflame others. At this point everyone knows they have nukes, they don't have to do fly-overs across Japanese territory and plan to bomb Guam to prove anything at this point.

One thing is certain, however - if they do nuke the US the response is most likely going to be nuclear and result in the destruction of North Korea. The one real obstacle to response-in-kind, China, has stated that if North Korea bombs first they'll abandon them to their fate. Yet North Korea continues to threaten anyone and everyone. This is not a rational course of action. If they stuck to just words, bragging they could now rain nuclear fire on their enemies, and the occasional bomb test on their own territory, it would be business as usual but continuing to lob missiles around is pissing off more than just the US.

[mr friendly guy]

There have long been major differences between Iraq and North Korea, not the least of which is oil. Iraq also brought invasion on itself when it invaded Kuwait. The next time around it was hardly a secret that part of the motivation for invading Iraq was the hopes that America would get access to the oil there and talk of the oil paying for the invasion. North Korea has no such resource. There is also the religious bullshit surrounding the Middle East that infests some of the US political structure that simply doesn't apply to North Korea.

Er, North Korea has minerals worth trillions. Its been known for some time if you google check the dates of some of the older articles.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/nort ... ?r=US&IR=T

Not that it matters. Serbia wasn't exactly a rich country either when NATO dismembered it.

Yes, North Korea had a perfectly understandable reason to maintain an army and work on weapons, but this dick-waving they chronically engage in just serves to inflame others. At this point everyone knows they have nukes, they don't have to do fly-overs across Japanese territory and plan to bomb Guam to prove anything at this point.

Not that I like what NK is doing, but how do we know how effective they are if they don't demonstrate it? Presumably they want us to know how effective they are so they can wave the nuclear threat over us. After all, even if they have the bomb, but no means to deliver it, their threat value decreases significantly.

[LaCroix]

Not that I like what NK is doing, but how do we know how effective they are if they don't demonstrate it? Presumably they want us to know how effective they are so they can wave the nuclear threat over us, because even if they have the bomb, but no means to deliver it, their threat value decreases significantly.

This.
The news have been very loud about "yes, they have missiles, but they only can reach this or that distance in theory, no evidence...",
"They probably can't aim",
"Their nukes are weak".

The two test were solely made to clarify the questions asked. They can reach at least *that* far, we can get them where we want them to go, and our nukes are *that* big.
They are already in the game, unless they give up nukes - which means they will get in trouble after that because everybody will act under the premise that they could get them again, very quickly. Puts NK on a constant risk of military invasion, and a reality of having to allow in inspectors and stuff. That is totally inaceptable to them, so giving up is no valid strategy anymore. Once you are nuclear, you have to stay in that game.

But in order to play with the new rules, NK can't have the world thinking that their nuclear capabilities are minimal - they have to prove they are dangerous in order to be taken serious. They know they'd never win a war, and certainly wouldn't start one, but they must prove the point that the US will have to pay a price for attacking them first. They will bolster and huff and puff, but that is business as usual. They just needed to have a get out of jail card in their deck to keep getting away with being mouthy.