General North Korea thread

[Simon_Jester]

Honestly, I think there are likely to be some weird parallels here between Trump and Kim Jong Un. They both inherited positions of great privilege. Lots of sycophants. No reason to be restrained about saying whatever the hell they want. Little need to develop detailed, practical knowledge of real things if they don't feel like it.

So all my arguments about Kim Jong Un and ignorance of nuclear deterrence theory and so on, apply equally well to Trump. I'm sure he is on some level aware that nukes create fallout, but he's probably also aware on that same level that people don't think his daughter should get to walk in on meeting with congressional leaders. He's too impulsive and in-the-moment to care.

[Flagg]

Yet Fatty Kim doesn't talk like a stupid 7 year old after a head injury, gotta give him that.

[Ralin]

Yet Fatty Kim doesn't talk like a stupid 7 year old after a head injury, gotta give him that.

You haven't read Trump in translation.

That's not a smart ass comment. Apparently some interpreters have been having moral quandaries, because their training and instinct is to produce a cogent-sounding translation but they worry that they're making him sound more rational and intelligent than he really is.

[Flagg]

Yet Fatty Kim doesn't talk like a stupid 7 year old after a head injury, gotta give him that.

You haven't read Trump in translation.

That's not a smart ass comment. Apparently some interpreters have been having moral quandaries, because their training and instinct is to produce a cogent-sounding translation but they worry that they're making him sound more rational and intelligent than he really is.

He speaks on a 6th grade level. I have heard wiretaps of Mafiosi in private, some of the dumbest wastes of meat and bone on the planet, that don't sound as stupid as he does about everything. At least while talking about anything other than the best way to penetrate an unwilling underage girl with your fingers and not get repercussions.

[Vendetta]

Honestly, I think there are likely to be some weird parallels here between Trump and Kim Jong Un. They both inherited positions of great privilege. Lots of sycophants. No reason to be restrained about saying whatever the hell they want. Little need to develop detailed, practical knowledge of real things if they don't feel like it.

So all my arguments about Kim Jong Un and ignorance of nuclear deterrence theory and so on, apply equally well to Trump. I'm sure he is on some level aware that nukes create fallout, but he's probably also aware on that same level that people don't think his daughter should get to walk in on meeting with congressional leaders. He's too impulsive and in-the-moment to care.

The difference is that when he stepped into a position where everyone expected he'd be a puppet figurehead for others, Kim Jong Un played them against each other to neutralise and then execute those expected to be operating him.

It was expected that he'd largely be a puppet for the military, but he's managed to make himself more popular with most of it than the generals are so enough of the soldiers are loyal to him personally that their leaders are neutralised, and so he's played the military leadership against that of the scientific and civil service infrastructures (and the atomic tests play internally as part of that, because it also elevates the state scientific organisations over the military leadership).

Trump hasn't made nearly as much headway and isn't likely to because his personal popularity is in the toilet even with the people who put him in office. (Also possibly because he can't put John McCain in front of a firing squad no matter how much he wants it).

[Caiaphas]

Speaking of, does anyone know whether they've confirmed that the nuke the Norks initiated about a month back was a hydrogen bomb, or just a really big fission weapon?

[Ralin]

Yet Fatty Kim doesn't talk like a stupid 7 year old after a head injury, gotta give him that.

You haven't read Trump in translation.

That's not a smart ass comment. Apparently some interpreters have been having moral quandaries, because their training and instinct is to produce a cogent-sounding translation but they worry that they're making him sound more rational and intelligent than he really is.

He speaks on a 6th grade level. I have heard wiretaps of Mafiosi in private, some of the dumbest wastes of meat and bone on the planet, that don't sound as stupid as he does about everything. At least while talking about anything other than the best way to penetrate an unwilling underage girl with your fingers and not get repercussions.

What point are you trying to make here?

[Terralthra]

I doubt you're old enough to remember Krushchev pounding his shoe on a table shouting at the capitalist countries "We will bury you!" That wasn't threatening and bombastic? I mean, holy shit, the Cold War was full on and both sides had a shit ton of nukes pointed at each other.

No, none of them are old enough to remember something that didn't happen. Of course, no matter how old you are, you also can't remember something that didn't happen. You're conflating two incidents that occurred years apart, and making details up to go with it. The (apocryphal) shoe-banging incident occurred in 1956 at the UN, and was directed at a specific Ambassador who had attacked the Soviet Union, not "capitalist countries". "We will bury you" occurred at the Polish embassy in Moscow in 1960, and was directed at all capitalist states, but it was not shouted. It has been suggested both by later translators and by other rhetoric Kruschev used that a better translation will be "we will be present at your funeral", meaning that communism would outlive capitalism.

Memories are fickle things.

[SpottedKitty]

Speaking of, does anyone know whether they've confirmed that the nuke the Norks initiated about a month back was a hydrogen bomb, or just a really big fission weapon?

FWIW the initial estimates were IIRC close to the one-way-or-the-other limit. There's a fuzzy range with some overlap where you've got the maximum yield of a pure fission device (not very practical to make them bigger, and it wastes valuable fissionables that could go into another device), and the minimum yield of a fusion device — assuming nothing fizzles. It might not be easy to tell without a sniff of the radioactive byproducts.

[Flagg]

You haven't read Trump in translation.

That's not a smart ass comment. Apparently some interpreters have been having moral quandaries, because their training and instinct is to produce a cogent-sounding translation but they worry that they're making him sound more rational and intelligent than he really is.

He speaks on a 6th grade level. I have heard wiretaps of Mafiosi in private, some of the dumbest wastes of meat and bone on the planet, that don't sound as stupid as he does about everything. At least while talking about anything other than the best way to penetrate an unwilling underage girl with your fingers and not get repercussions.

What point are you trying to make here?

That he sounds like a 12 year old except for when he brags about grabbing pussies? And he’s a pedophile. And that he makes Fatty Kim sound like a genius.

[Ralin]

That he sounds like a 12 year old except for when he brags about grabbing pussies? And he’s a pedophile. And that he makes Fatty Kim sound like a genius.

Maybe I wasn't clear enough. My point is that you're hearing Kim through at least one or two layers of translation and ghost-writing. Even Trump is known to come off as cogent and intelligent under those circumstances, so observations about who sounds dumber are questionable at best.

[mr friendly guy]

The other thing is, there is speculation that Trump might have early signs of dementia, while Kim is still a young man. Trump was definitely articulate say in the 1980s and 90s, but he sounds like an idiot now. Doesn't excuse the fact that the US voted for the Orange one, but it does put some context to the matter.

[Flagg]

That he sounds like a 12 year old except for when he brags about grabbing pussies? And he’s a pedophile. And that he makes Fatty Kim sound like a genius.

Maybe I wasn't clear enough. My point is that you're hearing Kim through at least one or two layers of translation and ghost-writing. Even Trump is known to come off as cogent and intelligent under those circumstances, so observations about who sounds dumber are questionable at best.

IDoes Fatty Kim give largely incoherent stream of iconscious speeches/rants that are at every Trump rally?

[Batman]

I think his point was you couldn't know for certain even if he did, because of the layers of filtering they go through before you get the english version. You know Trump is an incoherent moron because on him, you get the raw deal. Kim you only get the translation.

[Simon_Jester]

That said, there are plenty of Korean-speakers in South Korea who can or understand Kim Jong Un's exact, untranslated words just fine.

If Kim Jong Un were a babbling idiot in international media broadcasts, I might not be able to tell. But millions upon millions of South Koreans would be able to tell, and would tend to spread the word. Just as the millions upon millions of English-speakers have in fact affirmed to the world that Trump is a babbling idiot.

[Korto]

What gets me is the constant refrain on the news "What if NK attacks? What would be the response if they attacked <whichever country>?" I personally have no fear of North Korea initiating anything. They're not interested in that, all they want is to build up the best MAD response they can, so of course they want nuclear weapons. The world wants the Norks to trust that the US won't attack them; well, the USSR, China, Iraq and Grenada have all used that strategy and the results show it's a strategy that works much better when you have nuclear weapons.
No, it's Trump initiating that's the worry. That guy's a nut. (Although, he has been extremely entertaining.)

I do disagree with you, Simon, about how the weak side of a weak-to-strong needs to be. I would think they HAVE to be on a hair-trigger, because they can't ride out a first-strike. If they don't get them in the air, there won't be any second chances. It's the strong side that can afford to be relaxed, because they can survive a first strike--and then, by being obviously relaxed, it reassures the weak side, and makes everyone safer.

We notice Trump's talk has been anything but reassuring.


The idea of North Korea using "nuclear blackmail" to get stuff seems ridiculous. All you've got to say is "No."
NK: Give us all this stuff!
US: No.
NK: If you don't, we'll launch our nukes!
US: Go ahead. See what happens.
NK: Ummm...
The fact that we have been giving them energy and food just shows we're giving a starving nation support, which the world tends to do even when they have corrupt arseholes in charge (which they often do). They might even receive more if they stopped behaving so aggressively about it.


I think the best strategy for dealing with North Korea is to calm down the talk, treat them with kindness and respect (even if they don't deserve it) and just extend the hand. Just keep on doing that. Give them the aid that any country in their position would be given, not any more, try to create opportunites to work with them, and to draw them into the fold. And just keep on doing that. As long as the bombs aren't flying, it's a strategy that you can keep on doing, and even if the current leadership turns out to be not interested, well, you're building a foundation and no leader lives forever.
And maybe you could sign a proper peace treaty with them. Why the fuck you still at war with them anyway?

[Flagg]

Yeah, I live in the projected strike zone should they get the nukes small enough to fit on a rocket that can hop the Pacific. The USS Nimitz’s home port is maybe 8-9 miles by road, less than that as the crow flies. I’m more worried about the volcanoes in the Cascade range that probably won’t blow in my lifetime (and likely, not within the lifetime’s of anyone born in the next 3 centuries) than I am about North Korea.

[Patroklos]

If the US is already going to strike/in the process of striking there is zero benefit to wasting all their warheads on the US west coast on the off chance one might actually make it. Their benefit against the US is preventing a strike, not retaliating against one. And lets be honest, an America first strike would be primarily targeted at the NK nukes themselves, not blanketing the country in fire, so there will be a follow on war.

The recipients of NK nukes will be SK, with the intent of eradicating as much of conventional power as possible to prevent a quick follow up on whatever the air/nuke bombardment inflicts. There is also the benefit that they are guaranteed to get most of those warheads through to be effective. Regardless of the nuclear game, that aint 4,000,000 worth of US soldiers within a days drive of the NK border after all. That's what they really have to worry about once there is nothing they can do about the incoming nukes.

It might be different if DC were on the west coast as a vengeful decapitation strike would appeal to Kim. But they have precious few cards to play even if one of them is an ace. They will go for bang for their buck.

[Broomstick]

Even if they could get DC that wouldn't decapitate the US as effectively as, say, hitting Pyongyang decapitates NK because way back in the Cold War the US put contingency plans in place for that very occurance,

[Exonerate]

My working, conservative assumption is the DPRK has an ICBM that can deliver 250kt to Washington DC. They haven't demonstrated their ability to launch that far, but for the life of me, if you can hit Chicago, I can't imagine them not going the extra step to add a little more range to hit the capital and home of all the people who would be responsible for prosecuting a war against the DPRK. If you want to deter the man with the finger on the button, you target his house (even if he will be long gone by the time it hits and wishing the rest of us good luck).

There's a lot of uncertainty involved in the yield; depends on the magnitude, depth, rock structure, etc, but 250kt is the most recent and around the upper end of public estimates right now; more than what you'd normally expect from a boosted fission device.

Anyways, I've seen a lot of foreign commentators open their analysis by declaring Trump is a businessman... While true, none of them seem to note he was a businessman who flouted rules, stiffed his contractors, etc. Many people seem to have a hard time accepting how dysfunctional he really is. I will note KJU has made specific, deliberate, credible threats without rhetorically backing himself into a corner (considering bracketing Guam, possible ICBM + nuke test in the Pacific) while the Dotard's are vague, off-the-cuff, vague, and difficult to budge from.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

North Korea has claimed it is authorised to shoot down US bombers in international airspace - in response to Donald Trump's "declaration of war".

Pyongyang's foreign minister said it interpreted the US president's latest aggressive rhetoric as a red-line threat against his country.

"The question of who won't be around much longer will be answered then," he added.

The White House later dismissed the interpretation of US intent, with Press Secretary Sarah Sanders declaring: "We have not declared war on North Korea."

Mr Trump last week threatened to "totally destroy" North Korea in a provocative UN speech before symbolically ramping up US travel restrictions on visitors from the nation.

Kim called Mr Trump a "mentally deranged US dotard" before Mr Trump replied that Kim was "obviously a madman who doesn't mind starving or killing his people".

ITV News Washington Correspondent Robert Moore said the North Korean minister's statement again brings Mr Trump's foreign strategy into question.

Mr Trump's signing on strict new restrictions on North Korean visitors is largely symbolic as so few make the journey.

The North Korean government prevents most of its 24 million population from travelling to foreign countries including the United States.

Exceptions include special cases like jobs that bring in foreign currency or sporting events.

Link. Does the DPRK have the capability to even do that?

[The Romulan Republic]

As much as I hope war doesn't happen...

If its going to happen, I very much want it to be because Kim fired the first shot at a military unit. Because Fat Kim firing first is the only scenario in which we can be pretty much sure (or as close to sure as possible) that China won't come in on his side and make it World War III, and if he's going to fire the first shot, I'd rather it be at a military unit than a bunch of civilians.

I've got to hand it to Kim Jong Un, though- he did actually say something true: "mentally deranged US dotard" is a pretty good description of Dickless Donald.

[Elheru Aran]

Serbs with Cold War era SAM's were able to down a F-117, so the Norks should be able to do it.

That said, the Serbs got lucky, IIRC. Having the capability is one thing; being able to DO it is another. In theory I'm capable of lifting more than my own body weight... but if the occasion arose, would I be able to?

There is certainly no question that the Norks would happily loft a few (or a lot) of SAM's in the direction of any US aircraft crossing their airspace should it get to that point. There is also no question that for precisely that reason, said SAM sites are pretty high up on the 'sites that are getting a JDAM to the face PDQ' list. Can they take a few US aircraft down in the process? Quite possible, but I would say the odds are reasonably in the favor of the US.

[Flagg]

North Korea has claimed it is authorised to shoot down US bombers in international airspace - in response to Donald Trump's "declaration of war".

Pyongyang's foreign minister said it interpreted the US president's latest aggressive rhetoric as a red-line threat against his country.

"The question of who won't be around much longer will be answered then," he added.

The White House later dismissed the interpretation of US intent, with Press Secretary Sarah Sanders declaring: "We have not declared war on North Korea."

Mr Trump last week threatened to "totally destroy" North Korea in a provocative UN speech before symbolically ramping up US travel restrictions on visitors from the nation.

Kim called Mr Trump a "mentally deranged US dotard" before Mr Trump replied that Kim was "obviously a madman who doesn't mind starving or killing his people".

ITV News Washington Correspondent Robert Moore said the North Korean minister's statement again brings Mr Trump's foreign strategy into question.

Mr Trump's signing on strict new restrictions on North Korean visitors is largely symbolic as so few make the journey.

The North Korean government prevents most of its 24 million population from travelling to foreign countries including the United States.

Exceptions include special cases like jobs that bring in foreign currency or sporting events.

Link. Does the DPRK have the capability to even do that?

It’s fucking hilarious (in a not at all funny way) that in less than his first year in office, President Cockroach has managed to escalate shit to the point where a war with a nuclear power is becoming all too possible.

BUT HITLERYS CLINTON AND PRIVATE EMAILS!!!

Pay no attention to the fact that a ton of WH staff and government officials are using private email right now.

[Simon_Jester]

Flagg, I've found it darkly amusing how many Republicans I heard expressing relief after the election that "now we won't get into a nuclear war with Russia over Syria."


...

The Serbs had a number of advantages in shooting down that F-117, chief among them that American F-117s kept flying straight and level on regular, predictable flight paths after bombing targets in Serbia. When it comes to figuring out where a largely invisible aircraft is, knowing exactly when they dropped their bombs, exactly where they're going, and having a good idea of how fast they flew to get there is a potent combination.