Lonestar wrote: ↑2017-10-03 11:54amGenerally speaking, Bubba with 20 ARs in his closet is a significantly smaller problem than someone who has one or two guns and shoots his wife. About 3% of the population owns half the guns in the country.
It isn't the guys with big ass collections that are the problem.
I never said it was a huge issue but it does make sense to send the occasional ATF agent over to ensure that Bubba 'Hundred-Guns' Ray hasn't gotten lax with his firearms storage and safety since the last visit. Getting to know him and making sure that things at home are still going well wouldn't hurt either. This goes for the more respectable Reginald 'Gun-Museum' types as well.
Does this level of frankly minimal government oversite violate current rights?
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Simon_Jester wrote: ↑2017-10-03 12:53pmI think the other factors may be playing a lot harder than the guns.
As an example of a class of violent crime in which guns very rarely make an appearance, consider the rape rates in Canada and the US. Guns are not commonly used in rapes, precisely because the stereotypical "armed stranger" rape scenario is so uncommon.
Now, Canada has a vastly lower gun crime rate than the US. But Canada
also has a reported rape rate of somewhere between one and two cases per hundred thousand, whereas in the US it's more like 30 or 40.
Now, there are obvious confounders here. Rape rates are underreported in every country, because many or most victims don't go to the police. But at the same time, this
is true in every country, and there's no obvious reason that rape victims in Canada should be, say,
ten times less likely to go to the police than they are in the US. While we can't draw firm numerical conclusions, we can at least say that it sure
looks as though Canada's rape rate is a lot lower than the US's, maybe as little as 1/10 the rate in the US. And this almost has to be caused by reasons other than guns.
This is not to say gun proliferation has literally zero effect on crime and murder rates. But clearly the picture is much, MUCH more complicated than "lol just ban guns."
I never said that guns were even the largest factor, however, one can't conduct a mass shooting without something to shoot. In Canada one guy managed 3 kills with a crossbow* but that was at a private residence and wouldn't even make the national news in the US unless race was involved.
According to gunviolencearchive.org there have been 273 mass shootings this year in the US. We can debate that number and the validity of their stats but unless someone can find better numbers they're what I'm going with. Using numbers pulled from wikipedia** there were 10 bombings attempted in the US since 2010 and 8 of those resulted in no casualties. I think this answers the idea that we'd rather have these idiots trying to pull off a bombing than a mass shooting. In fact just the Vegas attack is dealier and has caused more wounded than all other non-gun related attacks going back to the Oklahoma Bombing and ignoring that and the WTC Truck Bombing you can go back a very long way and see that guns are by far the most deadly tool a would-be mass murderer has at their disposal.
*
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/c ... -1.3736694
**
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism ... .93present
Let me answer your question with a hypothetical.
Suppose you could lower the murder rate by 10% by spending all your political capital on a draconian campaign of gun control that would have the far right literally up in arms including rural guerilla movements. Or you could lower the murder rate by 20% by spending it on social programs that will cause the far right to grumble a lot but eventually acquiesce because seriously, they can't even get their shit together enough to repeal Obamacare.
You do not have enough political capital to do both; even doing one will be a hard-fought battle. Which would you choose, from a utilitarian point of view?
The kind of gun control that rounds up existing guns in the US would be effectively impossible to implement. Too many owners would view it as unconstitutional and engage in civil disobedience (at best) or armed resistance (at worst). In the cases involving civil disobedience, some of the courts, maybe even the Supreme Court, would agree with them. And that's not just because of Republicans on the court, either.
This is not the first time you've been told this. Please stop opining on US gun control until you're prepared to address this reality squarely.
Your hypothetical is just as bullshit given that your 20% case has also yet to be seriously attempted. It could be argued that the ACA hasn't been around long enough for us to judge if it's had an effect on US crime rates (it also may not last long enough to ever be fairly judged) but can you name anything to that scale beyond that which could even come close to the desired effect? I can't think of anything but the current Opiod debacle may actually cause a spike if people stop ODing and start turning to crime to get a cleaner fix.
Has it happened? You don't know whether this is a case of a properly registered automatic weapon being bought or stolen in the US. How many such cases of legal machine guns being bought or stolen for crimes have actually occurred?
We don't know the details of this case yet. However, so long as the object is there to be stollen it has a non-zero chance of happening.
And I get that this makes you hard and all.
But seriously, you either have no concept of the differing level of resistance such gun control measures would encounter in the US compared to Canada, or you are an actively malicious troll promoting policies you know will lead to violent chaos.
I actually do understand the level of resistance, as much as any outsider can. I say this due to having seen the rhetoric that comes out here whenever this pops up and the opinions of the firearms channels I watch on a regular basis. I simply don't think that the issue outweighs the good that a multidecade slow tightening of the firearms noose would do. It starts by making gun lobbies illegal and then working to change young minds while slowly restricting weapons year over year. It's not particularly likely to happen unless you get an authoritarian anti-gun lefty the likes of which the right currently throws out as strawmen in office but it could happen.
Can you actually explain coherently why "bearing arms" is a privilege granted for good behavior and not a right citizens default to having unless there's a specific reason they shouldn't have it?
Or is this just a default assumption on your part? Are Americans are just uniformly dumber and more childlike and ignorant than people in other countries, so that a large fraction of Americans automatically wrong about this? Because seriously, I've seen a lot of people argue for gun control who just assume this, and it's done more than anything else to turn me from pro-gun-control to anti-gun-control.
We have two groups of people. One believes they have an important right and wants to protect it. The other group believes that the right in question does not exist and wants to take it away. Normally, in cases like this we expect to see a damned good argument on the part of the group that wants to abolish the right. If someone tried to convince you that voting or free speech or moving to another town were "privileges" that you should have to earn by making special arguments and pleas to your government, they'd probably fail unless they had one hell of a good argument.
But most of the gun control advocacy I've seen in the past ten years doesn't even make an effort to justify this. It just says "lol no, this right you believe you have does not exist, the grownups should take it away from you."
Can't you do better than this? It's frustrating to watch.
Given that the US is only one of 3 countries (the others being Mexico and Guatemala) that have this 'right' I don't think that anybody should have to argue against it being a right. To further make my case 6 other countries used to have such a 'right' and have since rescinded such rights.
Can you see why people from the other ~190 nations you share this planet with might question what makes the US special enough to have upgraded what we see as a privilege to the status of a right?
I strongly suspect you made that up, though I could be wrong, I suppose. Do you actually have proof of your claim?
Furthermore, would you not think that violent career criminals are the people most likely to go out of their way to procure guns they wouldn't otherwise want? Doesn't it make sense that the places with lots of violent career criminals would need more gun control, and that the same gun control laws that benefit the cities might be seen as much less necessary in other places that lack such career criminals?
I find that very unsurprising.
Of course, I have proof.
List of U.S. states by homicide rate:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... icide_rate
Louisiana - Rank 1 (10.3 per 100,000) (Pop Density 93.6/sq mi Ranked 24th)
New Jersey - Rank 27 (3.9 per 100,000) (Pop Density 1210.10/sq mi Ranked 1st)
Violent crime doesn't correlate with population density, at least not at the state level.
At the city level, we get similar results.
Crime rates per 100,000 people:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... crime_rate
St. Louis - Rank 1 (1817.1) (Pop Density 4,800/sq mi)
Memphis - Rank 3 (1740.1) (Pop Density 2,000/sq mi)
New York - Rank 52 (585.8) (Pop Density 28,210/sq mi)
San Jose - Rank 76 (329.6) (Pop Density 5,776.29/sq mi)
Density means little next to other factors. Thus, all areas need to be disarmed.
I mean, I know you get your technocrat hard-ons from saying things like this, but this is the kind of thing a stupid technocrat says.
A smart technocrat would immediately spot the flaw in saying something like "Law A is necessary in Area B, so let's apply it to Areas B, C, D, and E indiscriminately unless people specifically apply for permits explaining why it shouldn't apply to them." By saying that, you've immediately declared your willingness to impose intrusive laws on Areas C, D, and E, without justification or basis in evidence. The fix is in; you decided you wanted to impose the law on them then you looked for a reason to do so.
And that's exactly how smart technocrats don't behave. Because technocrats who do behave that way, in the unlikely event they ever obtain power in the first place, are likely to wind up hung from lampposts as a warning to all the other incompetent bozos who think They Know Best (TM).
Not like I haven't already proven that pop density =/= crime rates but if you fail to restrict problematic weapons in rural areas they will be far easier to smuggle into the cities that have banned them. Thus, you need to police all areas with equal fervor to ensure compliance.
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As for Americans being dumber and more childlike than other nations with equal wealth... May I point to your current PoTUS, your bottom of the class healthcare and education systems, your violent crime rates, lack of racial equality, the war on drugs, your current unemployment rates, and other issues that simply don't exist to the same degree in peer-level nations. In terms of hard numbers, let's directly compare the US to Canada as it's the basis for my view of the two nations. I also have some experience with Australia having spent half a year there but it doesn't inform my world views the same way and has many of the same issues, in terms of comparison to the US, as Canada has.
General
Happiness Index:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Happiness_Report
Canada - Rank 7 - Canada Rates Higher in all categories
United States - Rank 14
2015 Inequality-adjusted HDI:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... justed_HDI
Canada - Rank 11
United States - Rank 19
Legatum Prosperity Index:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legatum_P ... 6_rankings
Canada - Rank 5
United States - Rank 17
The Good Country Index:
https://goodcountry.org/index/results?p=overall
Canada - Rank 10
United States - Rank 20
Satisfaction with Life Index:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satisfact ... Life_Index
Canada - Rank 10
United States - Rank 21
Where-to-be-born Index:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Where-to-be-born_Index
Canada - Rank 9
United States - Rank 16
As we can see looking at the general ratings Canada is a top ten nation to live in while the United States is in the low teens to the early twenties as a nation. As will be seen in the following section related to income, this is in spite of the average US citizen having more disposable income than the average Canadian citizen.
Economic
Household Income:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income
United States - Rank 1 ($46,509)
Canada - Rank 11 ($31,086)
List of OECD countries by job security:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_O ... b_security
United States - Rank 24
Canada - Rank 30
List of OECD countries by long-term unemployment rate:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_O ... yment_rate
Canada - Rank 8 (0.89%)
United States - Rank 12 (1.42%)
List of countries by home ownership rate:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... rship_rate
Canada - Rank 35 (67.6)
United States - Rank 41 (63.5)
As can be seen here, the US is, homeownership and long-term unemployment aside, a more prosperous nation than Canada and yet rates lower in terms of general quality of life.
Environment
Environmental Performance Index:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environme ... ance_Index
Canada - Rank 25
United States - Rank 26
Environmental Vulnerability Index:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environme ... lity_Index
Canada - Rank 43
United States - Rank 115
List of countries by natural disaster risk:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... aster_risk
Canada - Rank 27
United States - Rank 45
Results for the last two seem at least somewhat out of the control of the nation, but Canada and the US could both seriously improve our environmental protections.
Health
OECD.stat:
http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?DataSe ... EALTH_STAT#
Female Life Expectancy at Birth:
Canada - Rank 14 (83.8)
United States - Rank 30 (81.2)
Female Life Expectancy at age 40:
Canada - Rank 14 (84.8)
United States - Rank 30(82.6)
Infant Mortality Rate:
Canada - Rank 29 (4.8)
United States - 32 (6.0)
Other Healthcare Indicators:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... healthcare
Colorectal cancer 5-year survival rate:
United States - Rank 5 (64.7%)
Canada - Rank 10 (63.5%)
Heart attack 30 day in-hospital mortality per 100 hospital discharges
United States - Rank 7 (5.5)
Canada - Rank 8 (5.7)
Hemorrhagic stroke 30 day in-hospital mortality per 100 hospital discharges
Canada - Rank 15 (22.2)
United States - 16 (22.3)
Ischemic stroke 30 day in-hospital mortality per 100 hospital discharges
United States - Rank 4 (4.3)
Canada - Rank 22 (9.7)
List of countries by health expenditure covered by government:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... government
Canada - Rank 22 (70%)
United States - 34 (46%) Last on List
List of OECD countries by hospital beds:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_O ... pital_beds
United States - Rank 23 (3.26)
Canada - Rank 30 (2.71)
List of countries by risk of death from non-communicable disease:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... le_disease
Canada - Rank 12 (12%)
United States - 30 (15%) Last on List
Teen Pregnancy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevalenc ... _pregnancy
There was no good list of recent data so I'll use a quotation for the United States and Canada instead to show the contrast.
Canada:
"The Canadian teenage birth rate in 2002 was 16 per 1000 [5] and the teenage pregnancy rate was 33.9. According to data from Statistics Canada, the Canadian teenage pregnancy rate has trended towards a steady decline for both younger (15-17) and older (18-19) teens in the period between 1992-2002.[17] Canada's highest teen pregnancy rates occur in small towns located in rural parts of peninsular Ontario. Alberta and Quebec have high teen pregnancy rates as well."
United States:
"In 2013, the teenage birth rate in the United States reached a historic low: 26.6 births per 1,000 women aged 15–19. More than three-quarters of these births are to adult women aged 18 or 19. In 2005 in the U.S., the majority (57%) of teen pregnancies resulted in a live birth, 27% ended in an induced abortion, and 16% in a fetal loss.
The U.S. teen birth rate was 53 births per 1,000 women aged 15–19 in 2002,
the highest in the developed world. If all pregnancies, including those that end in abortion or miscarriage, are taken into account, the total rate in 2000 was 75.4 pregnancies per 1,000 girls. Nevada and the District of Columbia have the highest teen pregnancy rates in the U.S., while North Dakota has the lowest. Over 80% of teenage pregnancies in the U.S. are unintended; approximately one third end in abortion, one third end in spontaneous miscarriage, and one third will continue their pregnancy and keep their baby.
However, the trend is decreasing: in 1990, the birth rate was 61.8, and the pregnancy rate 116.9 per thousand. This decline has manifested across all races, although teenagers of African-American and Hispanic descent retain a higher rate, in comparison to that of European-Americans and Asian-Americans. The Guttmacher Institute attributed about 25% of the decline to abstinence and 75% to the effective use of contraceptives.
Within the United States teen pregnancy is often brought up in political discourse. The goal to limit teen pregnancy is shared by Republicans and Democrats, though avenues of reduction are usually different. Many Democrats cite teen pregnancy as proof of the continuing need for access to birth control and sexual education, while Republicans often cite a need for returning to conservative values, often including abstinence.
An inverse correlation has been noted between teen pregnancy rates and the quality of education in a state. A positive correlation, albeit weak, appears between a city's teen pregnancy rate and its average summer night temperature, especially in the Southern U.S. (Savageau, compiler, 1993–1995)."
Social/Political
List of countries by consultation on rule-making:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... ule-making
Canada - Rank 5
United States - 13
Global Terrorism Index:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Terrorism_Index
Canada - Rank 66
United States - 36
In this case, rank indicates the level of risk faced by each nation and thus a higher rank is worse.
Global Competitiveness Report:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Co ... ess_Report
United States - Rank 3
Canada - Rank 15
List of countries by Social Progress Index:
http://www.socialprogressindex.com/
http://www.socialprogressindex.com/asse ... 1-2017.pdf
Canada - Rank 6 (Very High)
United States - 18 (High)
List of countries by time devoted to leisure and personal care:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... sonal_care
Canada - Rank 32
United States - 33
I'm going to give Canada the win here in spite of the US edge in economic competitiveness as I don't feel that relates in a strongly positive way to the average citizen's quality of life. This is born out in the general section of this data collection.
In short, the US ranks well below its peers in many areas and where it does beat them it does so mainly due to being the world's largest economy in a 1st world nation. If this doesn't show some deficiency in the social order and general population of the United States I don't know what will.
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*Drops the fucking mic*