General North Korea thread

[Ralin]

Question is, how much of this is down to arm-twisting by China behind the scenes?

Turn that around. How much of this is China offering increased aid and investment along with a guarantee that they'll back the DPRK if America starts shit? I'm very surprised to hear about Kim Jong-un even considering the possibility of giving up his nuclear weapons, but that's high on the list of things that could make him feel secure enough to take that risk.

This is mostly speculation either way, but it's worth bearing in mind that China and North Korea generally have a decent working relationship, relatively speaking. If China helped make this happen I don't see any reason to assume it was in an adversarial way.

[Zwinmar]

I can't help but suspect foul play to follow. I hope not but I expect the norks to invade in a couple years.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I knew it was too good to be true:
N Korea cancels talks with South Korea.

North Korea has cancelled Wednesday's high-level talks with South Korea because of anger over its joint military exercises with the US.
The North's official KCNA news agency said the exercises were a "provocation" and a rehearsal for an invasion.
It also warned the US over the fate of the historic summit between Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump that is scheduled for 12 June in Singapore.
In March, Mr Trump stunned the world by accepting an invitation to meet Mr Kim.
"We will both try to make it a very special moment for World Peace!" the US leader later tweeted.
The US state department said it was continuing to prepare for the Trump-Kim summit and that it was not aware of any changes in the North Korean position.

But wait, there's more:
North Korea threatens to cancel Trump summit.

The highly anticipated meeting between Mr Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong-un is due to take place on 12 June.
But in an angry statement, North Korea's vice-foreign minister accused the US of making reckless statements and of harbouring sinister intentions.
He pointed the finger squarely at US National Security Adviser John Bolton.
"We do not hide our feeling of repugnance towards him," Kim Kye-gwan said.
The White House has responded by saying it is still hopeful the meeting will go ahead.
"The president is ready if the meeting takes place. If it doesn't, we'll continue the maximum pressure campaign that's been ongoing," said spokesperson Sarah Sanders.
The groundbreaking agreement for Mr Kim and Mr Trump to meet came about as North Korea said it was committed to denuclearising the Korean peninsula.
Exactly what that would entail has remained unclear, but North Korea has invited foreign media to witness the dismantling of its main nuclear test site later this month.

[Omeros]

I knew it was too good to be true:

This is likely to be KJU talking tough for the benefit of his domestic audience. I wouldn't rule out Trumpolini's Nobel Peace Prize just yet

[Ralin]

North Korea has cancelled Wednesday's high-level talks with South Korea because of anger over its joint military exercises with the US.
The North's official KCNA news agency said the exercises were a "provocation" and a rehearsal for an invasion.

Other points the leaders agreed in a joint statement were:

An end to "hostile activities" between the two nations

As I understand it, the joint military exercises really are at least partially a simulated invasion of North Korea. Which can reasonably be considered a hostile activity, especially what with the DPRK having spent decades specifically describing them as a hostile activity. So am I missing something or did South Korea violate the joint statement they agreed on during the summit first?

[Gandalf]

I can't help but suspect foul play to follow. I hope not but I expect the norks to invade in a couple years.

Why would they invade?

[Broomstick]

Resources.

All, reuniting the two Koreans is a major point of the North's propaganda. Also, that invasion they staged back in the 1950's. Expansionist ideology.

But at this point - probably most resources.

[Exonerate]

Reunification isn't just propaganda. Before North Korea is Communist, it is nationalist. This is something often overlooked. Remember that most Vietnamese view the Vietnam War not as Communism vs Democracy, but as a war of national liberation. Believe it or not, but even North Koreans are human and have their own beliefs.

As for expansionist ideology, the evidence for that is scant, considering their borders and territorial claims haven't changed and it is not reflected in their rhetoric. And I don't believe any rational decisionmaker with a grasp of the situation would believe the benefits from "resources" would outweigh the cost of war against a superior opponent.

North Korea is puncturing the inflated expectations here. Trump has them because he's an idiot and Bolton proliferates them because he wants to set the whole thing up for failure. This hiccup isn't fatal to improvement in relations, but it doesn't help. And if the totally ridiculous position where DPRK does everything we want before we sit down at the table isn't dropped, welp...

[K. A. Pital]

Resources.

All, reuniting the two Koreans is a major point of the North's propaganda. Also, that invasion they staged back in the 1950's. Expansionist ideology.

But at this point - probably most resources.

What resources? DPRK sells natural resources to get any hard cash as it is. SK is an industrialized country, but most of its industry works as subcontractors for global conglomerates. There's nothing to be gained, but all to be lost.

[Gandalf]

Also, unless half the SK population dies without damaging the national infrastructure, and the rest of the world decides "Fuck it," I don't even see how NK could hold onto the place, even if there were resources. All NK gains though some magical invasion (nobody ever fleshes out how this happens) is more mouths to feed, a country to rebuild and a great big target on their backs.

[Elheru Aran]

The only reason I might imagine them invading is if they had assistance from an outside ally, China or Russia, to back them up. Since this would chafe arses all over the world, it's rather unlikely to ever occur. Now trading shots back and forth across the border, perhaps attempting to move the border southward a bit, that I can easily enough envision happening. They certainly have missiles and could well decide it's worth the trouble to lob a few across the border to show them they "mean business" or whatever.

The fact is though they're in a precarious enough situation at the moment that odds are good, posturing aside, nothing significant will happen (plus or minus a few corpses on either side). If they become openly aggressive, Trumpolini and Bolton will happily send in the Marines. If they cave and come to the table, Trump gets to lord it over them on Twitter. Their best case scenario here is to sit tight and flip everybody the finger, because nothing much has changed anyway.

[Gandalf]

The only reason I might imagine them invading is if they had assistance from an outside ally, China or Russia, to back them up. Since this would chafe arses all over the world, it's rather unlikely to ever occur.

The only way the DPRK goes south is if a lot of people go absolutely nuts. They can inflict a lot of hurt, but they can't win.

[Broomstick]

Reunification isn't just propaganda. Before North Korea is Communist, it is nationalist.

I wouldn't consider North Korea to be "communist" now, if it ever was.

This is something often overlooked. Remember that most Vietnamese view the Vietnam War not as Communism vs Democracy, but as a war of national liberation. Believe it or not, but even North Koreans are human and have their own beliefs.

I understand that. However, I view the North Korea idea of reunification and "liberation" as a boot stamping on the face of humanity, forever (yes, that's a 1984 reference).

[quote\]As for expansionist ideology, the evidence for that is scant, considering their borders and territorial claims haven't changed and it is not reflected in their rhetoric.[/quote]
"Expansionist" in the sense that North Korea wants to absorb South Korea and impose their system on the south.

[Elheru Aran]

The only reason I might imagine them invading is if they had assistance from an outside ally, China or Russia, to back them up. Since this would chafe arses all over the world, it's rather unlikely to ever occur.

The only way the DPRK goes south is if a lot of people go absolutely nuts. They can inflict a lot of hurt, but they can't win.

Yup, and they know it. If they go for it, it's basically an act of national suicide. The question is if they ever decide that's worth it...

[Gandalf]

Why would national suicide ever be worth it?

Also, as an interesting aside, look at works done around the growing entrepreneurial classes of the DPRK. I'm starting to think that Kim is trying an economic reform akin to the PRC, albeit through something of a Juche lens.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Donald Trump has reportedly promised Kim Jong-un that he’ll stay in power if he agrees to scrap nuclear weapons.
Mr Trump is believed to have offered a guarantee that Kim Jong-un will remain in power if he gives up his nuclear weapons.
The US President is said to have told reporters in the Oval Office during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that the North Korean leader “will get protections that will be very strong” if he agrees.
Mr Trump reportedly said: “He’d be in his country and running his country. His country would be very rich.”

Source.

[Ralin]

Kim Jong-un would have been a fool to accept a promise like that even under Obama, much less now. There's a reason no one's ever just offered him or his father full amnesty, a villa in Europe and a multi-million dollar pension for life in exchange for disarming and reforming the country.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Welp whole thing is moot as El Trumpo cancled the meeting:
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way ... r-dialogue

President Trump has called off a highly anticipated June 12 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

"Sadly, based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your most recent statement, I feel it is inappropriate, at this time, to have this long planned meeting."

Trump's decision comes hours after North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui, in remarks carried on the country's official KCNA news service, said it would not "beg the U.S. for dialogue" and warned that it could make Washington "taste an appalling tragedy."

Hui also called Vice President Pence a "political dummy" and characterized recent comments he made suggesting that North Korea could end up like Libya if doesn't come to the bargaining table as "ignorant and stupid."

We will neither beg the U.S. for dialogue nor take the trouble to persuade them if they do not want to sit together with us," Choe said, according to KCNA.

"Whether the U.S. will meet us at a meeting room or encounter us at nuclear-to-nuclear showdown is entirely dependent upon the decision and behavior of the United States," she said.

WINNING!!!

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Welp whole thing is moot as El Trumpo cancled the meeting:
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way ... r-dialogue

President Trump has called off a highly anticipated June 12 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

"Sadly, based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your most recent statement, I feel it is inappropriate, at this time, to have this long planned meeting."

Trump's decision comes hours after North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui, in remarks carried on the country's official KCNA news service, said it would not "beg the U.S. for dialogue" and warned that it could make Washington "taste an appalling tragedy."

Hui also called Vice President Pence a "political dummy" and characterized recent comments he made suggesting that North Korea could end up like Libya if doesn't come to the bargaining table as "ignorant and stupid."

We will neither beg the U.S. for dialogue nor take the trouble to persuade them if they do not want to sit together with us," Choe said, according to KCNA.

"Whether the U.S. will meet us at a meeting room or encounter us at nuclear-to-nuclear showdown is entirely dependent upon the decision and behavior of the United States," she said.

WINNING!!!

Depending on his rationale, he's either being incredibly smart or incredibly stupid, and I'm not sure which is more disturbing.

[The Romulan Republic]

All things considered, I'll take a dumb moron over a smart fascist.

[Gandalf]

Somehow I doubt that they were ever going to go through with it.

[The Romulan Republic]

Somehow I doubt that they were ever going to go through with it.

This.

Wow, a negotiation set up as a PR stunt between two habitual liars fell through. Who'd have thought it?

[Gandalf]

I could have seen Kim going though with it, if only because the DPRK has a lot to gain through productive talks.

[bilateralrope]

Even if the talks don't reach any agreement, them happening says that North Korea is now important enough for the US president to talk to. So I can see Kim wanting the talks even if he doesn't expect them to go anywhere.

[The Romulan Republic]

So, Kim and Trump are meeting today. With Trump going into the meeting saying that he'll know in the first minute whether he can accomplish anything, and calling it a one-time short for peace.

So... I guess we have to hope that Kim is a) really good at stroking Trump's ego, and b) inclined to do so?