Brexit and General UK politics thread

[Tribble]

1) were the tories whipped? How many rebelled anyway?
2) how many labour mps voted to support?
3) if whipped how many would rebel anyway?
4) of labs voting leave, how many are in constituency that voted leave? How many would lose their seat if they did otherwise?
5) why the fuck arent you blamibg the party in power who is responsible for both referendum, leave campaign and current negotiations?

First off, I was continuing my response to the post you made earlier:

Don't forget the purpose of the refenredum - to break labour in england like the scottish ref broke labour in scotland and the vote reform broke the lib dems.

That was the reason for the referendum, and the reason for the brinksmanship - cameron let it slip and slip to force the labour party to rescue the remain campign and take the punishement at the polls. As it stands, Labour at the minute can still point to the party in power who started and are wildly mismanaging the whole thing.

There is little justification for a paternalistic labour party to go against it's core base's inclination. They are elected to represent their base, not to vote the opposite way "becuase we know better." If they'd remembered that before then the referendum may not have gone that way.

BUT the labour base is turning, and labour's lead is growing: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... t-13186920
At this point any action just lessens the pain the tories will suffer and slows the increase of labour support.

Running by your logic if I support keeping the UK in the EU or least the single market / EEA and I don't want to see the UK crash out in a hard-Brexit (even if only temporarily)... then Corbyn is a big part of the problem, since (for whatever reasons) he is going along with what the Conservatives are doing, and when it counts (such as the House of Lords Amendment to keep the UK in the EEA) Corbyn has successfully whipped a good chunk of his party into abstaining.

The Conservatives must bear the bulk blame since they are the ones in power... but this does not make Corbyn blameless and immune from criticism.

Incidentally, I had said to you earlier that my criticism of Corbyn does not mean that I excuse the Conservatives for their behaviour, which you seem to have missed.

[Tribble]

At which point the UK gets screwed over hard, since they have no fucking clue how we're in a more priveleged position within the EU compared to most. The terms to rejoin will be far worse and will probably mean adopting the Euro, which will give the Brexit bunch all the ammo they'll need. Fucking brilliant.

I didn't say it was a good option, just that the likely alternatives are all even worse. Especially the ones where the government fails to learn its lesson and doubles down on the anti-Europeanism.

Which it might still do even if the UK has a hard-brexit and crashes as there will be plenty of people who will no doubt blame the EU for deliberately punishing the UK as much as possible for having the audacity to leave. And, well, there probably is some truth in that to a degree, but their attitude is not going to help matters.

[mr friendly guy]

If there is anything to take from this is that if the british media says the sky is blue, verify it yourself.

You might like this video


It does mention a lot of the claims against Corbyn including showing a table from a study where a lot of media misrepresents Corbyn's views. This isn't just the Daily Mail, but it includes supposedly serious new sources like the Guardian.

[The Jester]

From my understanding, all the British politicians are lying about what's about to happen. As per Article 50, all treaties cease. All of them. This means that in addition to the single market, the UK is no longer able to trade under the FTAs the EU has signed with about 60 other nations on the UK's behalf. As per WTO rules, all these nations will be forced to treat them as a 3rd party and apply the corresponding (rather high) tariffs.

But it gets worse. Because the UK is no longer trading under the EU's schedule, they're now required to submit their own schedule to the WTO where all 164 member nations have the opportunity to review it and object if they feel it's unfair. Should anyone object (there's about 10 that will, including NZ and Australia), that schedule will not be certified. While the UK have no certified schedule, they're considered an avatar for non-rules based trade. You're going to have a helluva time if other countries don't consider you as someone who plays by the rules.

[Vendetta]

From my understanding, all the British politicians are lying about what's about to happen. As per Article 50, all treaties cease. All of them. This means that in addition to the single market, the UK is no longer able to trade under the FTAs the EU has signed with about 60 other nations on the UK's behalf. As per WTO rules, all these nations will be forced to treat them as a 3rd party and apply the corresponding (rather high) tariffs.

But it gets worse. Because the UK is no longer trading under the EU's schedule, they're now required to submit their own schedule to the WTO where all 164 member nations have the opportunity to review it and object if they feel it's unfair. Should anyone object (there's about 10 that will, including NZ and Australia), that schedule will not be certified. While the UK have no certified schedule, they're considered an avatar for non-rules based trade. You're going to have a helluva time if other countries don't consider you as someone who plays by the rules.

You could have stopped at the first sentence and been fine.

But what they're mostly doing is saying "no it will be fine, everyone will just make exceptions for Britain because of reasons, in fact it will be better than ever like that because of shut up and look over there!".

[The Jester]

Except they actually know. They have civil servants in Geneva at the WTO. They've asked the pertinent questions. Some of them have visited Geneva themselves. They know and they are outright lying. UK exports are heading 161 kph towards a brick wall and if May doesn't recall that letter in Brussels, it's going to collide.

[Batman]

I think that is exactly what Vendetta was getting at. They blew it, they know they blew it, they are currently handwaving to distract from the fact that they blew it with no idea on how to go on

[The Jester]

Fair enough. The thing is they have a path. Recall the letter. It's political suicide given the climate in the UK. But better to fall on their collective sword than to sacrifice UK exports to it. In about six months everyone's going to see they fucked up anyway and come for their heads.

[The Romulan Republic]

And then they get PM Corbyn, who is also a Brexit enabler. Still, almost anythings got to be better than the cons.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Yeah, a PM who advocates the UK ceasing to be a nuclear power. I can't see any problems there!

[Crazedwraith]

Yeah if we didn't have a nuclear deterrent people wouldn't be afraid of us. I mean people might get poisoned on the streets or something.

[His Divine Shadow]

Can't have a PM who isn't willing to kill millions. Can't get hard unless the capacity and willingness to kill millions. Why won't you kill millions Jeremy shouts the gammon choir as they masturbate to the terminator two nuke scene.

[Tribble]

Given the present climate I'm not entirely convinced the UK would have the luxury of remaining in the USA and/or France's nuclear umbrella if they disarmed, at least not without some concessions somwehere.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Given the present climate I'm not entirely convinced the UK would have the luxury of remaining in the USA and/or France's nuclear umbrella if they disarmed, at least not without some concessions somwehere.

Exactly- no-one is going to trust Mr AMERICA FIRST! with nuclear protection, and given the centuries of conflict between the UK and France I can't see them coming to our aid either.

Mind you, with the hammering our economy is about to take we probably won't be able to afford to retain Trident anyway.

[Zaune]

Exactly- no-one is going to trust Mr AMERICA FIRST! with nuclear protection, and given the centuries of conflict between the UK and France I can't see them coming to our aid either.

Honestly, at this point I think we're at greater risk of nuclear attack by the French or the Americans than anyone else: Russia's more likely to use 5th columnists and China need only threaten an embargo on eBay retailers.

[Tribble]

Exactly- no-one is going to trust Mr AMERICA FIRST! with nuclear protection, and given the centuries of conflict between the UK and France I can't see them coming to our aid either.

Honestly, at this point I think we're at greater risk of nuclear attack by the French or the Americans than anyone else: Russia's more likely to use 5th columnists and China need only threaten an embargo on eBay retailers.

All the more reason to keep Trident then! The French may still want to avenge Waterloo, while Trump openly called Canada a security risk for "burning the white house in the War of 1812"... so the UK is probably on his hit list.

[mr friendly guy]

Exactly- no-one is going to trust Mr AMERICA FIRST! with nuclear protection, and given the centuries of conflict between the UK and France I can't see them coming to our aid either.

Honestly, at this point I think we're at greater risk of nuclear attack by the French or the Americans than anyone else: Russia's more likely to use 5th columnists and China need only threaten an embargo on eBay retailers.

Just want to point out eBay isn't in China. Hasn't been in China for close to a decade now. They got outcompeted by a little known company. Ali baba or something.

[Zaune]

A whole hell of a lot of Chinese companies still maintain eBay storefronts for their European operations, though. At any rate, China would still have us by the short and curlies just by threatening to stop exporting manufactured goods to us; no need for any other measures.

[Ralin]

Just want to point out eBay isn't in China. Hasn't been in China for close to a decade now. They got outcompeted by a little known company. Ali baba or something.

Uh, in what sense? Because I have bought things (from Chinese sellers) off Ebay while living in China in the past couple years.

[mr friendly guy]

Just want to point out eBay isn't in China. Hasn't been in China for close to a decade now. They got outcompeted by a little known company. Ali baba or something.

Uh, in what sense? Because I have bought things (from Chinese sellers) off Ebay while living in China in the past couple years.

No eBay site for China since they gave up. I am on my phone, but you can google how eBay lost China for a good case study on doing business in China. Now nothing stops Chinese merchants from joining eBay, and I have also purchased stuff from merchants based in HK or the PRC from EBay.

Another resource is the dock crocodile on the Yangtze for insight into the competition between Alibaba and eBay in the early days.

[The Romulan Republic]

Given the present climate I'm not entirely convinced the UK would have the luxury of remaining in the USA and/or France's nuclear umbrella if they disarmed, at least not without some concessions somwehere.

Exactly- no-one is going to trust Mr AMERICA FIRST! with nuclear protection, and given the centuries of conflict between the UK and France I can't see them coming to our aid either.

Mind you, with the hammering our economy is about to take we probably won't be able to afford to retain Trident anyway.

One can argue the merits of nuclear deterrence as a principle, but if one buys into the fundamental premise, then it absolutely makes sense for Britain to keep its nukes. Hell, if I didn't oppose nuclear proliferation on principle, I'd be calling for Canada to start buildings its own arsenal. Because if one thing is now clear, its that nobody in their right mind would rely on the US for protection under any circumstances right now.

[LaCroix]

Im my experience (mostly shopping for metalworking tools and machines online) it is quite hard to find a non-chinese vendor (or reseller) on ebay.

Not that their stuff is inherently bad (I buy a lot from them), but chinese vendors pretty much dominate ebay, as much as they do wish and other apps, just by the nature of modern globalization.

[His Divine Shadow]

That's why I buy second hand quality instead, I've bought cheap chinese crap from time to time but only the most basic simple stuff is worth buying, stuff you can't really fuck up too much, still even then I've gotten burnt more than once. Don't waste time and money on chinese carbide for instance. The holders might work but the source the carbide from a reputable euro/us/japanese source or stick to HSS. The parting tools for lathes are really hit and miss, carbide tips that won't even seat in the blade, like throwing a hot dog down a hallway. Waste of money when you can get a really good professional set, sometimes this is on sale for 80£.
https://www.mscdirect.co.uk/NHI23-02165 ... oduct.html

A decades old german dial indicator from ebay.de is better than any modern made chinese one, the only thing worth getting from China is the stand and mag base. For instance. I go to german ebay and look for used german stuff a lot of the time.

[The Jester]

So, from what I've gathered, the (hard) Brexiteers' plan is:

1) Hard border in Ireland without concern for the ramifications of violating the Good Friday Agreement.

2) Fall back onto WTO 3rd party status with a presently incomplete and what will be an uncertified trade schedule (though I suppose this will be altered later on due to point 6).

3) Absorb the additional costs to British exporters now requiring customs experts when previously they required none.

4) Not pay the UK's outstanding EU commitments and ignore the subsequent case when it's taken to international arbitration.

5) Pray that no large multinational corporations (e.g. Japanese auto manufacturers) take them to court over losses incurred from investing in the British economy due to the British government pulling the rug out from under them.

6) Reduce all tariffs on imports to zero (exceptions may be made if it impacts a local industry).

7) Negotiate FTAs with multiple countries outside Europe from them all becoming so inspired by the UK's example of reducing tariffs to zero. These countries will rapidly agree, in spite of the UK already giving away most of the bargaining chips by setting their tariffs to zero.

8) Live with the labour shortfalls across multiple industries incurred from all the additional load from treaty withdrawal, uncertainty in immigration status and harder immigration controls.

9) Accept all incidental costs that may occur because British independence is worth any price.

Did I miss something?

[mr friendly guy]

So, from what I've gathered, the (hard) Brexiteers' plan is:
4) Not pay the UK's outstanding EU commitments and ignore the subsequent case when it's taken to international arbitration.

The UK has a history of ignoring international courts when it doesn't like the decision and hypocritically asking others to abide by the Court's decisions, so that's hardly new.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mauritius ... ed_Kingdom

The Permanent court of arbitration ruled against the UK in 2015 for breaking decolonisation rules and we know the UK ended ethnically cleansing deporting the Chagos Islanders. The UK have still ignored the court, so earlier this year, a vote was taken to refer this to the UN council. The UK lost the vote, but its thought that they did so because of Brexit (see the link for more information). Namely because it lost the support of European allies due to Brexit, namely Germany, Italy and France abstaining. So one side effect of Brexit is the UK gets less support for flouting international law.

If anyone is interested in what happens next, as of this september this year the case will be heard in the International court of justice. Unlike the Permanent court of arbitration, the International court of justice actually has teeth, because the UN charter allows its rulings to be heard in the UN security council and members can vote on what to do about it. But don't worry, nothing will happen to the UK. Just like the US, it will use its veto power to block any resolutions on it. Which would make the UK the second country to actually block an ICJ ruling, and the only countries to do so, being Western democracies.