Kavanaugh hearings- now with sexual misconduct allegations.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Its too early to say for sure, of course, but I think that there is a shift in the Democratic Party away from "Always be bipartisan and conciliatory" (ie, bend over and take it and then thank the Republicans for the privilege) and towards adopting a stronger line on progressive policies and not compromising them so easily. Its been somewhat delayed by the Bernie or Bust types, because they give the Centrist compromisers and excuse to say that progressives dissatisfied with the party's weak stances are not real Democrats and not reliable votes, but I think that its going to become harder and harder, in a lot of places, to win a Democratic primary if you have a record of consistently caving to Republicans.

Yeah.... I won't be holding my breath on that. Seriously people have been crowing about "THIS Time the Democrats really WILL grow a spine just you see!" for the last 30 years...

That said... what I witnessed today is without a doubt, one of the most Disgusting displays of "Old White Male" sexism that I have ever been put on display in my memory. I don't think I have felt so genuinely "angry" listening to someone since the original election when I first heard Trump giving speeches.

Listen, lets be honest, after the performance today Kavanaugh is all but certain to become the Judge.
At BEST You MIGHT get a 50/50 split, and then it is just a single vote from Pence and there you have it.
I am not necessarily being pessimistic, but seriously what else could happen at this point?
Any reservation that Trump might reverse course were washed away by his now glowing endorsement of Cry Babies performance.
Which by the way should be his new Nickname "Judge Cry Baby"

[Highlord Laan]

Lindsey pitching a bitch fit during the hearing made me smile. Playing politics to prevent a president from seating a Supreme Court Justice? Sound familiar, you worthless little hypocritical shit?

He and his kind already set the precedent. They don't like it, too fucking bad.

[Dalton]

So after today's drama and histrionics, Kavanaugh was voted out of committee and to the full senate 11-10, but including Jeff Flake's demand that the FBI investigation into his background be opened for another week to investigate his history of sexual assault. Tonight they went ahead and passed the procedural vote that was scheduled for tomorrow - probably so they wouldn't have to ruin their weekends.

Among those supporting Flake's motion are Murkowski, Collins, Manchin, Donnelly, and Heitkamp

[The Romulan Republic]

They should have stopped him cold here, without going to the full vote on the floor. That said, I can at least see why a reasonable person would feel that they should let it go to the floor of the Senate even if they didn't ultimately want to approve Kavanaugh, so I wouldn't take the vote today as necessarily indicative of how those swing Senators will ultimately vote- IIRC, McCain did the same on the healthcare vote a while back- voted to move ahead on it, then voted no on the final vote.

It also means we have one more week to lobby these people, in addition to anything that the FBI might turn up. So rather than sitting around and saying that Kavanaugh's going to be approved and the Democrats will always be spineless and do nothing, how about you make some calls and let your Senators know what you think? Let Democrats who may be on the fence know you will support primaries against them if the support Kavanaugh. Let Republicans know that their legacy will depend on whether they side with the women of America, or a sexual predator. MAKE CALLS.

I also find it rather encouraging that McConnel agreed to the week's delay. Not because I am naive enough to think that McConnel has grown or ever will grow a scrap of a soul or conscience. But because if McConnel backed down, its because he knows that without that concession, he will not have the votes. I repeat: all indications are that as of today, MCCONNEL DOES NOT HAVE 50 VOTES. Which probably means that all the Dems are in the "no" column at the moment, or at least not solidly yes, in addition to Flake and Murkowski.

So this is not by any means over. Maybe we'll win it, maybe we'll lose it, but DO NOT be the guy who bitches about Kavanaugh getting on the Court when you couldn't be arsed to do anything to try and stop it.

[The Romulan Republic]

I'll add another thing: If Kavanaugh does get on the court, I will be calling Dem leadership and my members of Congress and telling them that I support his impeachment, and that I will support primary challenges against any Democrat who doesn't. I urge others to do likewise.

Hell, impeach him from his current Federal judgeship, even if he doesn't get on the SC. We have more than enough grounds (possible attempted rape/sexual assault and possible perjury).

[Beowulf]

Let's assume for the sake of argument, that Kavanaugh didn't do it, and there's a bunch of misremembering. Would his reaction to all this be significantly different from reality?

AFAIK, right now, all we have is the uncorroborated accusations against him. The named witnesses have either disclaimed ever having been in a situation like this, or said no comment and fled for the beach.

As it stands, if he gets confirmed, there's going to be large numbers of people believing a rapist got onto the Supreme Court. If he doesn't, there's going to be large numbers of people believing the left successfully conducted a character assassination of him, and illegitimately denied him a seat on the Supreme Court.

"But what about Merrick Garland?" I'm not going to deny that he was denied a seat for bad reasons. But the Republicans were honest: We're not going to approve any nominee. Those that see this as illegitimately denying him a seat, won't see it as honest. They'll see it as a new underhanded tactic. One that could be leveraged against almost anyone.

[Elheru Aran]

The Right is always going to believe the worst of the Left. That hasn't changed. And to be frank, I welcome deeper investigation of the pasts of candidates for high office. If they have dirt, let it be hung out for the world to see. Is this going to disqualify some otherwise perfectly eligible individuals? Probably.

As for the tactic of smearing a candidate with false accusations: while possible, I do think it would be difficult to coordinate something as massive as the response that has grown up around Kavanaugh. Particularly in a credible fashion. Though it does occur to me that in about a decade or so, if one wanted to find out what happened in someone's youth they could just go digging on social media...

[The Jester]

Lindsey pitching a bitch fit during the hearing made me smile. Playing politics to prevent a president from seating a Supreme Court Justice? Sound familiar, you worthless little hypocritical shit?

There is a reasonable belief that Lindsey's tirade was a calculated manoeuvre. Note how the Republican's prosecutor never asked any questions from Kavanaugh after that.

[Elfdart]

Lindsey pitching a bitch fit during the hearing made me smile. Playing politics to prevent a president from seating a Supreme Court Justice? Sound familiar, you worthless little hypocritical shit?

He and his kind already set the precedent. They don't like it, too fucking bad.

He does the world's best impression of Grady Sutton*, which is always good for a laugh. His threat that he and the rest of the GOP were going to smear Democrats and obstruct them if they take back the White House and Congress was kind of the reverse of Harry Truman's "If they keep lying about me, I'll just keep telling the truth about them", and just one of many examples of Graham's marbles being lost. Graham & Co spent hundreds of million of taxpayer dollars on witch hunts about Vince Foster, Benghazi and of course the attempted putsch against Bill Clinton for lying about blowjobs.

This is beyond hypocrisy or projection -it's someone becoming completely unraveled.

* For the young people who don't know who he is:

[Simon_Jester]

Lindsey pitching a bitch fit during the hearing made me smile. Playing politics to prevent a president from seating a Supreme Court Justice? Sound familiar, you worthless little hypocritical shit?

There is a reasonable belief that Lindsey's tirade was a calculated manoeuvre. Note how the Republican's prosecutor never asked any questions from Kavanaugh after that.

I think at some point, the dark curse on Rachel Mitchell faded and she woke up and realized she was a sex crimes prosecutor with a suspiciously rapey and evasive guy sitting at a table in front of her. She was asking questions like "so, did you ever drink enough that you couldn't remember what happened" and something along the lines of "where were you on the night of July 1, 1982." I think the Republican senators realized that if this went on much longer their guy might blow up and effectively confess rape on the stand, so they switched to Plan B, which was to rant and bloviate about how terrible it is that all this rape investigation is damaging Kavanaugh's reputation.

[Knife]

I think at some point, the dark curse on Rachel Mitchell faded and she woke up and realized she was a sex crimes prosecutor with a suspiciously rapey and evasive guy sitting at a table in front of her. She was asking questions like "so, did you ever drink enough that you couldn't remember what happened" and something along the lines of "where were you on the night of July 1, 1982." I think the Republican senators realized that if this went on much longer their guy might blow up and effectively confess rape on the stand, so they switched to Plan B, which was to rant and bloviate about how terrible it is that all this rape investigation is damaging Kavanaugh's reputation.

I do think this is the prevailing idea on it, yes.

[The Romulan Republic]

Let's assume for the sake of argument, that Kavanaugh didn't do it, and there's a bunch of misremembering. Would his reaction to all this be significantly different from reality?

AFAIK, right now, all we have is the uncorroborated accusations against him. The named witnesses have either disclaimed ever having been in a situation like this, or said no comment and fled for the beach.

As it stands, if he gets confirmed, there's going to be large numbers of people believing a rapist got onto the Supreme Court. If he doesn't, there's going to be large numbers of people believing the left successfully conducted a character assassination of him, and illegitimately denied him a seat on the Supreme Court.

"But what about Merrick Garland?" I'm not going to deny that he was denied a seat for bad reasons. But the Republicans were honest: We're not going to approve any nominee. Those that see this as illegitimately denying him a seat, won't see it as honest. They'll see it as a new underhanded tactic. One that could be leveraged against almost anyone.

Frankly, even if he were innocent of sexual assault (which requires believing that a whole bunch of different women are all engaging in a campaign to defame him despite the very real threats to their personal safety in doing so, without any real evidence that that's the case)... he's still probably perjured himself, and has shown himself to be a paranoid partisan hack who is likely incapable of being an impartial judge. He's utterly unfit to be on this court, or any other (except as a defendant).

Yeah, the Right will throw a fit if he's not nominated. Who gives a fuck? We should back down to fascists because the fascists might be mad if we don't give them what they want?

The hell with that. Let them try using sexual assault allegations against Democrats in "retaliation". If they unearth a Democrat who's actually guilty, good. If they lie, we'll expose them.

[Mr Bean]

The train keeps going
The Daily Beast

n a 1983 letter planning “Beach Week” festivities at a rented condo in Ocean City, Maryland, Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh described himself and his Georgetown Prep friends as “loud, obnoxious drunks.” The Federalist and The New York Times report that Kavanaugh also wrote they were “prolific pukers” and told his guests to warn the neighbors “to go about 30 miles” away. “I think we are unanimous that any girls we can beg to stay there are welcomed with open...” Kavanaugh wrote, leaving the sentence unfinished. “The danger of eviction is great and that would suck because of the money and because this week has big potential. (Interpret as wish.)” Kavanaugh also signed the letter “Bart,” which is the same name his good friend Mark Judge used in his “fictionalized” book, Wasted: Tales of a Gen X Drunk. The newspaper also spoke with classmates who recalled Kavanaugh “triumphantly” hoisting an empty keg over his head at one party during his senior year, which was reportedly part of a group effort to polish off 100 kegs by the end of the academic year. The Federalist reported on the letter before the Times published the story Tuesday evening. During last week’s public hearing on the sexual-assault allegations against Kavanaugh, the nominee downplayed his drinking, saying he liked beer but insisting he never blacked out in high school.

Everyone is hung up to much about about the sexual accusations when the key with Kavanaugh has always and will remain his willingness to lie under oath.

[bilateralrope]

Everyone is hung up to much about about the sexual accusations when the key with Kavanaugh has always and will remain his willingness to lie under oath.

When the goal is to keep Kavanaugh off the Supreme Court, why waste time with something you know the Republican senators will not care about ?

[Mr Bean]

Everyone is hung up to much about about the sexual accusations when the key with Kavanaugh has always and will remain his willingness to lie under oath.

When the goal is to keep Kavanaugh off the Supreme Court, why waste time with something you know the Republican senators will not care about ?

You think they care about the sexual accusations?

[bilateralrope]

Everyone is hung up to much about about the sexual accusations when the key with Kavanaugh has always and will remain his willingness to lie under oath.

When the goal is to keep Kavanaugh off the Supreme Court, why waste time with something you know the Republican senators will not care about ?

You think they care about the sexual accusations?

I don't think they want to care about them. But enough voters might care that it endangers their reelection hopes unless they pretend to care.

[houser2112]

Sexually assaults girls? Meh. Drunkard? Meh. Lies under oath? Meh. I think the only thing that could cause the Republicans to abandon Kavanaugh at this point would be credible evidence that he's gay or atheist.

[bilateralrope]

They might care about Kavanaugh's boofing. If they pay enough attention to realize that he can't have been telling the truth when he claimed it was farting.

Though it is disappointing that if Kavanaugh took part in some consensual gay experimentation, that might hurt him more than any of the sexual assaults.

[The Romulan Republic]

Sexually assaults girls? Meh. Drunkard? Meh. Lies under oath? Meh. I think the only thing that could cause the Republicans to abandon Kavanaugh at this point would be credible evidence that he's gay or atheist.

We only need to get two Republican Senators to care, though. That's still not the best odds, but its at least within the realm of possibility.

Call Flake. Call Murkowski. Call Collins.

[The Romulan Republic]

So, Senators read the FBI report this morning, which was narrowly limited, did not interview key witnesses, and was read in a secure room, not to be made available to the Republic (any Senator or staffer who had the spine to leaks this report would earn my undying respect).

Jeff Flake has said that it is "thorough", as has Collins. Flake went further, though, asserting that nothing in it corroborated the accusations, and thereby implicitly siding with the "the women are lying" crowd. Though he has not yet said how he will vote, more and more I fear that he has played the American people false- that his calls for an investigation were not about finding the truth, but about giving himself political cover to vote yes.

Collins and Murkowski have been less favorable toward the report, though. Murkowski criticized the investigation, and Collins went back in repeatedly to read the report, stating that she would not come to conclusions until she had finished reading. So these would be the key votes to lobby, right now.

In a small bit of good news, Heidi Heitkamp, one of the undecided Dems, came out today as a no vote. This is very good news, as the prospect of even a single Democrat voting for Kavanaugh scares me almost as much as the prospect of him getting on the Court. It won't matter if the other 49 vote no- if even one votes yes, its going to be like dumping gasoline on the fire of the "Both Sides" narrative/false equivalencies, going into the Midterm. Trumpists and Kremlin propagandists trying to keep the progressive vote home (or get them to go third party) could hardly ask for a better gift.

[Crossroads Inc.]

It is pretty much a done deal by now. Flake did this to cover himself so he could say he did it, but I seriously doubt at the end of the day there was anything that actually would have made him NOT vote for Kavanugh. I said it before and I'll say it again. Politics is still the one place you can get away with being a sexual Predator... Unless you are a Democrat.

Clearance Thomas has been on the Court for how many years after all?

[TimothyC]

Sen. Collins says she will vote yes, which means it is highly likely that Judge Kavanaugh will end up on the court.

Edit: NPR is also saying that Sen. Manchin will also vote yes.

[ray245]

Let's assume for the sake of argument, that Kavanaugh didn't do it, and there's a bunch of misremembering. Would his reaction to all this be significantly different from reality?

AFAIK, right now, all we have is the uncorroborated accusations against him. The named witnesses have either disclaimed ever having been in a situation like this, or said no comment and fled for the beach.

As it stands, if he gets confirmed, there's going to be large numbers of people believing a rapist got onto the Supreme Court. If he doesn't, there's going to be large numbers of people believing the left successfully conducted a character assassination of him, and illegitimately denied him a seat on the Supreme Court.

"But what about Merrick Garland?" I'm not going to deny that he was denied a seat for bad reasons. But the Republicans were honest: We're not going to approve any nominee. Those that see this as illegitimately denying him a seat, won't see it as honest. They'll see it as a new underhanded tactic. One that could be leveraged against almost anyone.

Frankly, even if he were innocent of sexual assault (which requires believing that a whole bunch of different women are all engaging in a campaign to defame him despite the very real threats to their personal safety in doing so, without any real evidence that that's the case)... he's still probably perjured himself, and has shown himself to be a paranoid partisan hack who is likely incapable of being an impartial judge. He's utterly unfit to be on this court, or any other (except as a defendant).

Yeah, the Right will throw a fit if he's not nominated. Who gives a fuck? We should back down to fascists because the fascists might be mad if we don't give them what they want?

The hell with that. Let them try using sexual assault allegations against Democrats in "retaliation". If they unearth a Democrat who's actually guilty, good. If they lie, we'll expose them.

The only thing that matters is whether the Democrats will have the necessary majority the next time a supreme court judge seat is available. If they don't, the Republicans will have no qualms about losing seats to get the judge the want.

Republicans don't mind trading a few senatorial seats in return of a supreme court judge. Afterall, it's a far safer seat than the other branches of government.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, yesterday Flake, Collins, and Manchin came out in support of Kavanaugh- which means that unless someone miraculously grows a conscience in the next few hours, his confirmation is pretty much assured. And with it, the deciding vote on the Supreme Court, a lifetime appointment, will go to a perjurer and likely sexual assaulter who believes that the President should be largely above the law, and whatever credibility the Court still has will be destroyed. The fight's not over- there are major protests planned across the country, and there will be ongoing demands for Kavanaugh's impeachment. But in the meantime, I will not recognize the legitimacy of any ruling that requires his (or Gorsuch's) vote to pass. As far as I'm concerned, for the forseeable future, its a seven-Justice Court.

The most distressing part of all of this to me, besides the fact of Kavanaugh's likely confirmation itself, is Manchin. Because to a lot of people, it won't matter if every other Democrat voted no: that one vote for Kavanaugh will be held up as "proof" that "both parties are the same" or "the Democrats are just as bad as the Republicans." Its not rational, but a lot of people will feel that way, and it will provide ideal fodder for Trumpist/Kremlin propagandists to suppress turnout by the base and split progressives off from the Democrats, as they did by exploiting "Bernie or Bust" in 2016.

Personally, I will remember that far more Democrats voted no, and I will damn well vote Democrat. I hope that enough others will do likewise. But as to Manchin personally... I didn't think I'd say this, this of all years, but this is one race where I am fine with people voting third party or write-in. There are a lot of compromises that I will accept in politics, but this is not one of them. If we win the Senate by giving a perjuring predator who will place Trump above the law control of our Constitution, then it really doesn't matter who wins. I don't want that to be the message to Democrats this election- that you win, if you give Trump what he wants. There has to be a line somewhere, and Manchin just crossed it. Even if it costs us a Senate seat, even if it costs us a majority in the Senate, Manchin has to go. I'd rather see his seat in the hands of a declared enemy, than in the hands of a turncoat.

[Wild Zontargs]

So, assuming that Kavanaugh wasn't blindly partisan before, what are the odds that he is (or if he was, that he's even more so) now, after that confirmation process?

Thou call'dst me dog before thou hadst a cause;
But, since I am a dog, beware my fangs