Brexit and General UK politics thread

[Tribble]

And May said she wouldn't do that...

I wouldn't be surprised if she tries to delay the vote until after the UK leaves in March, as thats the only realistic way she'd avoid a defeat.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

And May said she wouldn't do that...

I wouldn't be surprised if she tries to delay the vote until after the UK leaves in March, as thats the only realistic way she'd avoid a defeat.

To try and render it moot? I can't imagine she'll stay in power if she tries that.

[Tribble]

And May said she wouldn't do that...

I wouldn't be surprised if she tries to delay the vote until after the UK leaves in March, as thats the only realistic way she'd avoid a defeat.

To try and render it moot? I can't imagine she'll stay in power if she tries that.

Well odds are low she'll stay in power no matter what she does, so why not kick the can as far as possible to see if she can make the whole thing moot? It's not like she has a whole lot to lose at this point.

Edit: and for his part I wouldn't be surprised if Corbyn ends up playing along, since the Conservatives will be the ones to blame when the crap finally hits the fan. It might be in Labour's own best interest not to have a vote, since that might end up dividing their own party and/or they will get to share part of the blame.

Corbyn is pro-brexit anyways so why not let the Conservatives force the issue and get the blame for it? While also blaming them for not having a vote too. Win/win/win for him.

Of course, I certainly hope I'm wrong in this.

[Crazedwraith]

48 Letters have been reached. The Tory MPs are having a vote of confidence in May this evening.

It is expected to be close.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

This one's too close to call.

The major point against May is that few if any like her deal, and she's just stubborn enough to fight for it to the bitter end. The Hard Brexiters hate her deal, and now dare not leave her in power for fear that she tweaks it just enough to push it through and they miss out on Hard Brexit. The Remainers similarly have little reason to protect her, as her deal won't give them what they want either. She tried to please everyone, and ended up pleasing no one.

There's been a long standing argument that no one will force her out for fear of being stuck in 10 Downing Street when Brexit happens. I'm not sure this holds up any more. For the Tory Remainers, they now have the ECJ-approved option of just cancelling the whole thing. That would be risky politically, but there aren't any good options in that regard. Meanwhile, for the Hard Brexiters it's a simple question of how badly they want their Hard Brexit, and whether they can find someone willing to step forward and risk the consequences. There are plenty of Tory Brexiters with more ambition than sense, and the human capacity for self and collective delusion has few limits.

May nevertheless has at least one point in her favour; keeping the hardliners out. It's just possible that the Tory Remain MPs will back her simply in order to keep the hardliners out of power; but I think this will only happen if they can't come up with a viable candidate of their own.

The Guardian has suggested the following candidates; Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, and Penny Mordaunt. All except Hunt are Brexiters, whether originally or by conversion. Raab and Johnson have also intimated that they will dump the Irish Border backstop, so expect a Hard Brexit if either of them win.

[The Jester]

Sigh. It's like holding a mutiny when the ship is already sinking.

[Civil War Man]

The Guardian has suggested the following candidates; Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, and Penny Mordaunt. All except Hunt are Brexiters, whether originally or by conversion. Raab and Johnson have also intimated that they will dump the Irish Border backstop, so expect a Hard Brexit if either of them win.

It sounds like Raab and Johnson are playing with fire, considering that there are very real concerns about the possible consequences of closing the Irish border, up to and including fears of a return of the Troubles.

[The Jester]

Looks like May has sufficient support. Which isn't that surprising. Nobody really wants to take the helm at this point to actually put in the amount of effort needed to take over.

[Captain Seafort]

May survives, 200 in favour, 117 against.

In context, that means that only about 40-50 backbenchers (i.e. non-government) voted for her.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Which means she can't be ousted for a year. On the plus side, at least it means that idiot Boris Johnson won't be PM for now.

[Crazedwraith]

Can't be ousted by her own party. The whole government can get chucked if things go really badly.

[Bedlam]

And she can resign, although that doesn't seem likely.

[Iroscato]

Or whatever blasphemous extradimensional entity keeping her mortal form going through sheer dark arcane energies could simply pull the plug.

I'm genuinely surprised at the results, but also relieved in a way. It's been such a chaotic couple of years, adding another change of leadership into the mix would only make things worse.

[Gandalf]

Which means she can't be ousted for a year. On the plus side, at least it means that idiot Boris Johnson won't be PM for now.

That makes me wonder if she (or her supporters) staged this to dare the opposition within the party to do something, and hold them off while Brexit goes on. M

[Bedlam]

Which means she can't be ousted for a year. On the plus side, at least it means that idiot Boris Johnson won't be PM for now.

That makes me wonder if she (or her supporters) staged this to dare the opposition within the party to do something, and hold them off while Brexit goes on. M

It is a possibility, it does give her a years breathing space, saying she will resign before the next election potentially gives her the better part of 4 years if she wishes. Although if it was planned I'm sure she hoped to win by a greater majority.


The decision that it is possible to cancel leaving the EU certainly hasn't helped her position by splintering the remainer camp instead of a block behind her deal as the best of a bad thing it's now split between trying to cancel overall, take the deal or (really really unlikely) get a better deal and on top there are different flavours or with and without a further referendum.

[The Jester]

There's no better deal to negotiate. It's a technical withdrawal and bound by the EU's international legal obligations (what trading under the WTO actually means) and the requirement to maintain the integrity of the single market. Regardless of how bad it is for the EU (and it's certainly not roses, this is going to be bad), the ramifications of the concessions that May seeks are far worse. All EU moves are essentially forced. Anybody who tells you otherwise is either lying or doesn't know what they're talking about.

You either crash out, or you pray for divine intervention at this point.

[SpottedKitty]

Can't be ousted by her own party. The whole government can get chucked if things go really badly.

That's something to keep in mind — this was a no-confidence vote only on the PM. A no-confidence vote on the government as a whole is something different, and a couple notches higher on the fewmet-o-meter.

[The Jester]

I dare Corbyn to try it!

[Juubi Karakuchi]

I dare Corbyn to try it!

Well he has, sort-of.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... itics-live

In short, Corbyn threatened to table a no-confidence vote in the government if May did not hold the 'meaningful vote' before Christmas. But he didn't use the legally required wording, so the move he tabled would leave the government under no obligation to do anything even if they lost the vote. May has responded by promising a vote in the week of January 14th - 4 weeks away.

Also, both May and the EU are apparently accelerating their No Deal planning.

The proverbial is accelerating towards the windmill.

[SolarpunkFan]

Also, both May and the EU are apparently accelerating their No Deal planning.

The proverbial is accelerating towards the windmill.

Shit. I have a few web friends over in the UK, I really hope they stay safe if/when SHTF.

[The Jester]

Well he has, sort-of.

Yeah. Sorta. The thing is he doesn't actually want power right now. No one does.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Well he has, sort-of.

Yeah. Sorta. The thing is he doesn't actually want power right now. No one does.

If there was another election right now I wouldn't vote for either main party- doubly so since Corbyn said he would never use nuclear weapons under any circumstances.

[Crazedwraith]

Has he? A quick google reveals nothing other than 'continues to dodge the question' and that said “I will decide it on the circumstances of it at the time.” Linka

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Has he? A quick google reveals nothing other than 'continues to dodge the question' and that said “I will decide it on the circumstances of it at the time.” Linka

‘No deterrent’ Jeremy Corbyn’s nuclear weapons policy LAMBASTED on BBC Question Time.

[Crazedwraith]

Has he? A quick google reveals nothing other than 'continues to dodge the question' and that said “I will decide it on the circumstances of it at the time.” Linka

‘No deterrent’ Jeremy Corbyn’s nuclear weapons policy LAMBASTED on BBC Question Time.

Yes, that's exactly what my link talks about.

Also Jeremy Corbyn says nothing in that link. He's not in it! It's about Labour as a party supporting nuclear weapons.

A member of the public saying what he thinks Jeremy Corbyn has said is not JC's declared policy is it?