Trump loses to Biden, narrowly loses to Bernie Sanders, beats Beto O'Rourke in hypothetical 2020 poll.

[The Romulan Republic]

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-america ... o-biden-in

President Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2020 matchup, according to a new The Hill-HarrisX poll.

The survey finds Biden leading Trump, 42 percent to 36 percent, better than at least two other leading potential Democratic White House contenders.

The president tops Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) in their matchup, with 37 percent saying they would vote Trump, and 30 percent saying they would choose O'Rourke.

Trump nearly ties with former presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the poll, with 37 percent saying they would vote for Trump, and 38 percent picking Sanders.

Progressive strategist Ruy Teixeira said in an interview that aired Monday on "What America's Thinking," that while it's too early to start polling on 2020 contenders, it does not surprise that Biden matches up well against Trump.

"It's really early to be polling on this," Teixeira, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, told Hill.TV's Jamal Simmons.

"It doesn't surprise me that Biden runs relatively well against Trump. He's got 100 percent name recognition, he's a likable guy. I think he'd play well in different areas of the country that the Democrats haven't done so well in," he added.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) last week announced a dozen primary debates split between 2019 and 2020 to accommodate what is expected to be a crowded primary field to challenge Trump, who has had low approval ratings throughout his two years in office.

Trump last week mocked recent talk of a potential bid from O'Rourke, who lost his Senate bid in November, telling reporters “I thought you were supposed to win before you run for president."

Sanders, a democratic socialist, mounted a strong bid for the 2016 Democratic White House nomination but ultimately lost to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Biden, who has run for president multiple times in the past, has left his options open regarding 2020.

The Hill-HarrisX poll is a joint project of The Hill's new online TV division, Hill.TV, and the HarrisX polling company that surveys 1,001 Americans a day on the issues of the day in politics and policy. The Dec. 16-17 survey has a sampling margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

— Julia Manchester

I heard another, similar poll on CNN a few days ago IIRC, on who people would consider voting for in 2020, which was basically the same results (with some slight variation in numbers)- Biden won, Trump tied Bernie, everyone else was behind them.

On the one hand, I'm pleased to see Biden polling so strongly (even though its obviously way too early to tell), and pleased to see the Bern holding his own with Trump.

On the other hand, it is rather dispiriting to see all three of the most popular prospective candidates being old white men in 2019.

[FaxModem1]

Here's hoping for Bernie Sanders then, as he's the most plausible of those three actually running for President in 2020.

[His Divine Shadow]

I know she can't run but I'd have liked to have see AOC in that poll

[The Romulan Republic]

I know she can't run but I'd have liked to have see AOC in that poll

As would I.

I do expect she'll be a candidate in 2028.

[The Romulan Republic]

Another thing to note about this is that (regardless of one's personal views on Bernie Sanders), the fact that he is polling at or above Donald Trump suggests that democratic socialism is potentially (depending on the candidates) as viable political force in America as Trumpism/neo-fascism, which is a fairly encouraging thought.

Edit: Another point I should add is that, despite my comments about the top three candidates in America still being old white men, I'm pretty sure that's only because Barrack Obama can't run again and Michelle Obama isn't interested. If either of them were in the running, I'm pretty sure they'd be at or near the top of the polls.

[aerius]

How'd those polls work out for you in the last election?

[The Romulan Republic]

How'd those polls work out for you in the last election?

The polls showed Hillary Clinton had more support. Hillary Clinton won more votes. So to that extent, they were fairly accurate.

They did not correctly predict the state by state breakdown that lead to Trump's victory, likely due to a nasty October Surprise (the reopening of the email investigation) and unprecedented interference by a hostile foreign government.

By yeah, no one is saying polls are one hundred percent reliable. They are, at best, suggestive of broad trends.

One thing I'd like to know is how they collected the data on these polls. I recall during 2016, for example, numerous polls undercounted Bernie Sanders' support because they were conducted using landlines, and/or polled likely voters/people who had voted previously, and thus polled disproportionately older voters and failed to count younger voters, or those who had not voted before but were attracted specifically by Sanders' campaign.

[Knife]

How'd those polls work out for you in the last election?

I don't think any of those polls in 2015 and 16 had in their methodology and/or weighted properly Russian Troll Farms pumping disinformation in the system. Do you? Might have affected the margin of error a bit huh?

Even as is, came down to less than 100K votes in 4 states.

[The Romulan Republic]

Three states. Had Trump lost Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he would have lost the race to Hillary. And to be clear, it was by significantly less than 100,000 votes in those three states combined.

Trump's win was really astoundingly narrow, even if the Electoral College math makes it look like a wide margin.