France recalls ambassador to Rome-worst diplomatic crisis between France and Italy since WW2.

[The Romulan Republic]

The issues that are more important than fascism, as you put it, are the root causes of fascism in the first place. In this the difference between us is you are putting a bandage on a cancer patient while I am looking for the tumors.

Addressing this because its the closest thing to an actual on-topic, substantive point you've posted in a while:

Sure, I'm all for addressing root causes, but the thing is, to turn your analogy around, there's no point looking for the tumor while your patient is bleeding out.

I also have a fundamental disagreement with you regarding the root causes of fascism. Because your apparent premise that the root causes of fascism are simply a backlash against the modern Centrist establishment ignores the deep seated nationalism, bigotry, and authoritarian ideology (with roots going back centuries or even millenia) which underlies them. Dissatisfaction with the status quo may make it easier for fascists to recruit, but it did not create fascism alone, and pretending that it did is implicitly portraying fascists as a sympathetic, perhaps even justified response to the status quo. As rebels against the big bad system, rather than a new and harsher variety of tyrant. And that is what I have a problem with.

[Elfdart]

Fascists are always out there. Don't kid yourself. The difference is when the establishment is either too weak or crooked to oppose them or worse, seek to use them as a stick to whack the peons and put them "in their place". Benjamin Franklin predicted the former over a hundred years before the term fascism was coined:

“I agree to this Constitution with all its faults, if they are such: because I think a General Government necessary for us, and there is no Form of Government but what may be a Blessing to the People if well-administered; and I believe farther that this is likely to be well administered for a Course of Years and can only end in Despotism as other Forms have done before it, when the People shall become so corrupted as to need Despotic Government, being incapable of any other.”

Keep in mind that The People Franklin is referring to are the political class, not the public at large.

[The Romulan Republic]

Kind of my point- fascism is nothing new, it didn't originate as a backlash to the Centrists. At worst, the arrogance and apathy of the Centrists gave it an opening to gain some ground. But at long as people fear and resent other people over trivial shit, fascism and similar ideologies will have fertile soil to grow in.

[His Divine Shadow]

Nobody has said fascism originated as a backlash to centrism as if it's the only reason, there are loads of reasons people might become fascists, that's pointless nitpicking since nobody has made such a claim so hence that's a strawman argument. But it's a 100% fact that neoliberalism (i.e. commonly called centrism today) creates fertile growing grounds for fascism because the 100%, totally unavoidable consequences of the system is massive wealth disparities and lack of growth for an ever growing number of people and growth going to a few urban area. This is why it's happening everywhere and here is the root cause of it growing, it's the bloody facts. To stop fascism and authoritarianism growing, we have to stop neoliberalism. That's not trivial shit, that's life or death for people. The times fascism has been allowed to grow and come to power in the past though have been like this, austerity for instance led to Hitlers catapulting to power (Mark Blyth, Austerity the history of a dangerous idea).

Centrism has already failed is my point, it's never gonna win another election, Macron is a goner already.

[K. A. Pital]

"Deeply flawed" and "destined to fail" are two very different things. I'm sure someone looking at the Articles of Confederation United States could have reasonably concluded that it was "destined to fail". I believe the EU is simply too new an experiment to say whether what it is experiencing now are growing pains that will eventually be overcome, or the beginning of the end.

K. A. Pital will of course predict its failure, as will others who share his views, because as I understand it, he's a Marxist, and Marxism requires the EU to fail as part of its view of history. He's essentially just following the prophecies of his religion.

No, actually, it is based on observation, TRR, and of course I can be mistaken - the key point for me is that I am only an observer and do not have the full information. But I operate only with a materialistic view of history, nothing more and nothing less. I have been across the EU from its South-Eastern periphery to its North-Western core of rich nations and I have seen the gap, and the consequences of the "monetary union, but no fiscal union" arrangement.

I find it a bit funny for you to say I follow a religion. Marxism does not "require" the EU to fail, anymore than it "required" the British Empire to fail, it just found a general underpinning of imperialism and the consequences of imperialistic conflict is that capital will win as a whole but certain imperialistic powers may go down in the process. The key points are a materialistic view of history, the acceptance of the driving or decisive role of class struggle and mass movements in political and social history, and observation of contradictions in the current order which can become faultlines of potential social revolution.

The EU is rife with such contradictions. Solving the impasse is either possible by turning it into a single state or by abandoning the current arrangement. Of course, the former remains a very remote possibility (but I am not sure it is a desireable outcome), however, with Brexit and the Euro crisis only lingering, but not resolved fundamentally, I find the first solution rather unlikely...

[madd0ct0r]

The euro crisis has been going on for, what, decade? Two decades?

How long can a problem linger without being resolved and yet be seen as a critical problem?

[K. A. Pital]

The euro crisis has been going on for, what, decade? Two decades?

How long can a problem linger without being resolved and yet be seen as a critical problem?

A decade (if you pick the starting point when the bailouts of the banks after the GFC started, leading to exacerbation of debt burdens across the EU periphery) or so.

How long can such problems linger? Over many decades, before either being resolved or leading to a crisis.

The destruction of Arab nations was swift, although some of these have existed for decades prior to 2011. This could be a fairly recent lesson, but little if anything suggests the EU is immune to this: it is a very recent construct, and there is no feeling that people have a superstate identity as "Europeans", outside a small globalized elite to which, perhaps, some people have more exposure...

[BabelHuber]

The euro crisis has been going on for, what, decade? Two decades?

How long can a problem linger without being resolved and yet be seen as a critical problem?

A decade (if you pick the starting point when the bailouts of the banks after the GFC started, leading to exacerbation of debt burdens across the EU periphery) or so.

How long can such problems linger? Over many decades, before either being resolved or leading to a crisis.

The destruction of Arab nations was swift, although some of these have existed for decades prior to 2011. This could be a fairly recent lesson, but little if anything suggests the EU is immune to this: it is a very recent construct, and there is no feeling that people have a superstate identity as "Europeans", outside a small globalized elite to which, perhaps, some people have more exposure...

I think we must not forget that the Euro was created because of the German reunification. The deal basically was that Germany drops the DM in favor of a European currency.

So yes, in hindsight it wasn't the best idea, but at the time it seemed fair: Germany gets rid of its Europe-dominating currency and in turn gets reunified as full member state.

Also, some politicians back then thought that yes, problems will arise, but they will be solved by an even tighter integration of the member states.

As for the EU falling apart, I think Brexit will teach a lesson or 2:

The UK will find out the hard way that the USA, China and the EU are rule makers. Everyone else is a rule taker.
It's no coincidence that European right-wing parties like the AfD and the Front National switch from demanding a Frexit or Dexit to a "reform" of the EU (albeit a crazy and moronic one).

On top of this, to my knowledge the only bigger corporations which plan larger investments in a post-Brexit UK are Aldi and Lidl! Go figure!

Heck, even Greece stayed in the EU in 2010 because leaving it - or the Euro - would have most probably created considerably more harm to the country than staying.

As soon as the Tories turn the UK into a European version of Singapore, with diminishing workers rights, pollution and sweatshops, people will see.

At least I hope this...

[J]

Heck, even Greece stayed in the EU in 2010 because leaving it - or the Euro - would have most probably created considerably more harm to the country than staying.

so this is the version of history which gets written down in the books. No mention at all of the sanctions, blackmail, and soft coup carried out by the Troika to force Greece to remain in the EU against the will of its people. So be it.

[K. A. Pital]

BabelHuber, that may all be correct, but in no way it addresses my point...

[His Divine Shadow]

Heck, even Greece stayed in the EU in 2010 because leaving it - or the Euro - would have most probably created considerably more harm to the country than staying.

so this is the version of history which gets written down in the books. No mention at all of the sanctions, blackmail, and soft coup carried out by the Troika to force Greece to remain in the EU against the will of its people. So be it.

People still think the Greece bailout was about Greece after all.

[BabelHuber]

BabelHuber, that may all be correct, but in no way it addresses my point...

Well, my points are:

- The Euro does have its negative side effects, as you correctly stated. But it was introduced in another time, it was thought to be a vehicle to drive further integration and we can hardly get rid of it now.

- The EU won't fall apart in my opinion. The reason is that BREXIT teaches the anti-EU crowd, especially at the left wing and right wing, a lesson or two.

So the EU will be carrying on for the foreseeable future, I think.

[BabelHuber]

Heck, even Greece stayed in the EU in 2010 because leaving it - or the Euro - would have most probably created considerably more harm to the country than staying.

so this is the version of history which gets written down in the books. No mention at all of the sanctions, blackmail, and soft coup carried out by the Troika to force Greece to remain in the EU against the will of its people. So be it.

Well, as a matter of fact Greece could have triggered Article 50 back then. Nobody would have been able to stop them. They did not because they seemingly thought that a Grexit would have been worse than staying, even under the EU's conditions.

So my statement is factually correct, I'd say.

[K. A. Pital]

How could you claim to know what the people of Greece thought?

And what does Brexit „teach“, other than that people can fly out like Champagne corks from the Union, even if they are relatively OK under the EU and have their own currency?

[BabelHuber]

How could you claim to know what the people of Greece thought?

Well, if they would have wanted to leave the EU, they could. They did not, hence they wanted to stay in the EU.

Or at least the people in charge, to be more precise. But if the people would see things differently, there would be a party promoting Grexit by now. But as far as I know, there is not. At least none of relevance.

And what does Brexit „teach“, other than that people can fly out like Champagne corks from the Union, even if they are relatively OK under the EU and have their own currency?

As I already have stated, even the AfD and the Front National don't want to leave the EU anymore. For me it seems the negative sides of Brexit have convinced everybody with more than 3 brain cells that it is much better for the overall majority of a country to stay and try to reform the EU from within instead of going your own way outside of it.

If the UK leaves the common market and the customs union, even more people will see this. In this case I look forward to watch the negotiations of the UK with Trump's USA or China. It will be a disaster.

Or with India - they will demand lots of visa. Can't wait to see the faces of the xenophobic "take back control" crowd

[K. A. Pital]

Of course this will happen, and if Britain is punished thoroughly enough for leaving, the others will be afraid and sit tight, but you seem to think fear will keep people in line for a sufficiently long time? *shrugs* I mean, the underlying issue is not resolved- there is no fiscal union, only a monetary one.

Periphery debts will have to be written off at some point.

[BabelHuber]

Of course this will happen, and if Britain is punished thoroughly enough for leaving, the others will be afraid and sit tight, but you seem to think fear will keep people in line for a sufficiently long time? *shrugs* I mean, the underlying issue is not resolved- there is no fiscal union, only a monetary one.

Periphery debts will have to be written off at some point.

I don't think the UK is punished. You cannot take a bath without getting wet - when a country leaves the EU, it loses the advantages of its membership. The problem is that certain Brexiteers promised unicorns, and some morons believed them and voted accordingly.

Yes, the debts will have to be written off or inflated away. I'd bet on the latter, though.

But I don't think fear will keep the members together, rather the realization that without the EU, European nation states are too small to play a role in today's world. Being the biggest single market on the planet is a much better position. The EU does have its weaknesses, but also its strengths. Like being good at negotiating FTAs.

If I could choose, I would get rid of the nation states and create a federation of regions with a central government. Something like the Federal Republic of Germany, but Europe-wide. Then we could easily implement a fiscal union. Unfortunately, we aren't as far - yet.

[K. A. Pital]

United States of Europe. *laughs* This idea is not new.

What I meant by punishing was losing common market access for rejecting core EU freedoms, not that it is not a consequence of Britain‘s own actions. It is.

But „inflated away“ when the ECB is likely looking at a protracted period of negative rates, or a situation like Japan in the worst case... *laughs* One can always hope, eh.

[aerius]

"Inflated away". Lol. It's like folks don't even know how the Euro works. Next thing you know, they'll be telling us that infinite exponential growth is sustainable on a planet with finite resources.

[His Divine Shadow]

I really think babelhunter should watch that varoufakis video on the euro I posted if he hasn't.

[BabelHuber]

"Inflated away". Lol. It's like folks don't even know how the Euro works. Next thing you know, they'll be telling us that infinite exponential growth is sustainable on a planet with finite resources.

For somebody who posts on stardestroyer.net, you have a quite narrow view: We have the whole of the asteroid belt to mine. Peak oil? Have you ever heard of the oceans of Titan?

[BabelHuber]

What I meant by punishing was losing common market access for rejecting core EU freedoms, not that it is not a consequence of Britain‘s own actions. It is.

The 4 freedoms of the common market are not negotiable, and rightly so. Otherwise other EU members could start picking cherries, which would endanger the EU as a whole.

Hence the UK can either join the common market on the same terms everybody else has, or it can stay outside.

A third option never has existed, except in the Brexiter's unicorn-filled land of dreams.

But „inflated away“ when the ECB is likely looking at a protracted period of negative rates, or a situation like Japan in the worst case... *laughs* One can always hope, eh.

I think we agree that the debts cannot be paid. This leaves 2 options in theory: Haircut or inflation.

[K. A. Pital]

Sure, Greece will mine the asteroids belt. And they will be... beratnas.

As for the UK, I am all for restricting the access, as they are no longer a part of the Union, sure - you cannot have both restrictions on mobility and single market access. I merely say that what did not deter people who are not really desperate, might also poorly deter those who are.

But anyway, please do elaborate on how exactly Greek debts can be inflated away. Timeframe, inflation rates necessary, etc.

[BabelHuber]

But anyway, please do elaborate on how exactly Greek debts can be inflated away. Timeframe, inflation rates necessary, etc.

Well, with a 5% inflation rate for 10 years, you get ~63% inflation as a whole. Meaning a debt reduction by ~39%. After 15 years, it's 200% inflation/ 50% debt reduction.

I think that we have "too much money" floating around at the moment globally. This is a side-effect of the crisis in 2008 and the according actions of the various governments and central banks.
While "flooding the market with money" and rescuing the big banks back then prevented a depression like in 1929, we see the negative side-effects now: If you have too much money, the money available is simply too much to be invested in the "real economy". Hence money is invested to "make money with money", which exacerbates this problem.

To get rid of this problem, you basically have 2 possibilities:

1.) The central banks can try to lower the amount of money floating around. But this also is dangerous because it could create a recession.
2.) A period of inflation. Then the amount of money available doesn't shrink, but is worth less.

Option 2 is more difficult to achieve, but safer.

[K. A. Pital]

Inflation in Greece is at 0,6%. Being generous, I can give you 1%. And 2% if the ECB can hit its targets universally (it can’t - see Japan for an example of over industrialized cash-pumped economy).

This is a ~10% devaluation over 10 years. Or ~18% if a miracle happens and Greece has 2%... Current economist projections (optimistically) put inflation at between 0,7% and 1,74% percent until 2022 - which is optimistic.

Sorry for literally busting your bubble.