Tyrion dances for the children (RAR)

[FaxModem1]

In book 1 of A Game of Ice and Fire, and season 1 of Game of Thrones, Tyrion encounters the Mountain Men. Due to some quick thinking, he is able to convince them to work for him. However, what if he failed, and Shagga wasn't convinced?

How is the game changed if Tyrion spends the rest of his life dancing for the Hill tribe children?

Relevant scene:

[Crazedwraith]

There are way too many variables. If everyone tries to play the same roles as before then Stannis is much more likely to win the Battle Of Blackwater and being in a much stronger position to win the war with Joffery dead and Tommen in hiding but Myrcella would still be around in Dorne at least for Tywin to fight. (Actually Stannis would win the first battle of Blackwater and have to fight Tywin right after but in a much stronger postion with much more of his army intact)

It's unlikely Tywin would stick with the same plans though. It may take him a while but his plan now has to include take over the Vale and find what happened to Tyrion, not because he wants to be but for appearence's sake. He may not get around to it for a while though because Robb and Stannis are still threats.

A lot depends on if Tywin has someone else to send to King's landing as hand in Tyrion's place, the only possibility I can think of his Ser Kevan, who was competent but not as clever as Tyrion.

[The Romulan Republic]

Joffrey fucks up the realm even more, Sansa's life is even shittier (she may end up being raped or murdered by Joffrey at some point), but it all ends when Stannis wins the Battle of Blackwater (whether he can hold King's Landing against the subsequent wrath of Tywin and the Tyrells is another question). My guess is it ends with either Stannis as King, or with the royal family dead, Tywin repeating the sack of King's Landing in vengeance, and the realm splintering as there is no recognized heir to the throne left.

Hmm, with Joffrey and the other children dead, Stannis and his daughter dead, Renly dead... I wouldn't put it past Tywin to try to put Jaime on the throne. Which... post-season three Jaime without Cersei around to influence him actually wouldn't be the worst king, albeit one utterly lacking in legitimacy or the respect of most of the realm. At least until Arya returns to Westros and murders her way through half the houses on the continent.

Longer-term, Danny may be fucked- with Barristan dead and no Tyrion, she'll certainly be short of more level-headed advisers to reign in her worst impulses. She's much more likely to rely entirely on dragon fire and burning cities to enforce her will, if she doesn't lose outright.

Up north... if things otherwise play out much the same, no Stannis means no Melisandra means Jon Snow stays dead. No Battle of the Bastards, and Bolton likely stays in charge of Winterfell. If Stannis keeps the throne, he will at least take the White Walkers seriously, but I suspect that there's no way he'd be able to successfully negotiate an alliance with Danny even if she was alive. Most likely, the White Walkers win. At best, we end up with a more ruthless and heavy-handed Queen Danaerys ruling over a ruined realm cowed by dragon fire, and that's a highly unlikely best case scenario.

So yeah, Tyrion disappearing fucks everyone, most likely.

[ANGELUS]

There are way too many variables. If everyone tries to play the same roles as before then Stannis is much more likely to win the Battle Of Blackwater and being in a much stronger position to win the war with Joffery dead and Tommen in hiding but Myrcella would still be around in Dorne at least for Tywin to fight. (Actually Stannis would win the first battle of Blackwater and have to fight Tywin right after but in a much stronger postion with much more of his army intact)

Except that it was Tyrion that sent Myrcella to Dorne in the first place.

The way I see it, Stannis fleet is not wiped out in the Blackwater, and since there is no strong leadership on the city defenses (with Joffrey been a coward and all) then Stannis manages to enter the city in full force. By the time the Lannister/Tyrell army arrives Stannis army has already entered the city, and without the losses from Tyrion's wildfire trick then we could see a very bloody and lenghty fight on the streets. Who would win? I have no clue... but if Stannis gets to Joffrey, Tommen, Myrcella and Cersei before Tywin does then he will have a huge leverage on Tywin.

Another option is that Cersei tries her idea of throwing wildfire at Stannis army using catapults and trebuchets and sets her own city on fire.

[Crazedwraith]

There are way too many variables. If everyone tries to play the same roles as before then Stannis is much more likely to win the Battle Of Blackwater and being in a much stronger position to win the war with Joffery dead and Tommen in hiding but Myrcella would still be around in Dorne at least for Tywin to fight. (Actually Stannis would win the first battle of Blackwater and have to fight Tywin right after but in a much stronger postion with much more of his army intact)

Except that it was Tyrion that sent Myrcella to Dorne in the first place.

I realised that a while after making my post. Oops.

Yes, depending on who Tywin sends in his stead all the Baratheon/Lannister heirs could be taken out in on fell swoop.

[Crazedwraith]

Up north... if things otherwise play out much the same, no Stannis means no Melisandra means Jon Snow stays dead. No Battle of the Bastards, and Bolton likely stays in charge of Winterfell.

So yeah, Tyrion disappearing fucks everyone, most likely.

That depends when exactly Tywin instigated the Red Wedding and got the Freys and Bolton on board. It's implied to be after The Battle of Blackwater and during the early parts of Storm Of Swords in the books, ie) Tywin and Tyrion's talks about the important letters Tywin is writing.

Tywin and the Lannisters not being in ascendance makes the Red Wedding much less likely. Freys are cowards without iron cast guarantees from Tywin they're not sticking their neck out to break the most sacred customs of the land.

The Boltons may never end up charge of Winterfell. I mean the Bastards stuff will play the same but Roose may be forced to repudiate him and stay loyal to the Starks.

Also: depending on Book or Series verse. Bookverse Dany will be better off, she still has Barristan and has yet to get Tyrion as any aide anyway, so no loss to her as we know her yet.

[The Romulan Republic]

Up north... if things otherwise play out much the same, no Stannis means no Melisandra means Jon Snow stays dead. No Battle of the Bastards, and Bolton likely stays in charge of Winterfell.

So yeah, Tyrion disappearing fucks everyone, most likely.

That depends when exactly Tywin instigated the Red Wedding and got the Freys and Bolton on board. It's implied to be after The Battle of Blackwater and during the early parts of Storm Of Swords in the books, ie) Tywin and Tyrion's talks about the important letters Tywin is writing.

Well, first question we need to sort out is are we talking book or show canon- you're pretty clearly referencing book canon, while I was focussing on show canon (as, I thought, was the OP). And does that make a difference to the timing here.

But fair point- its possible the butterfly effect will wipe out the Red Wedding, in which case there is at least a chance that Rob ends up fighting his way to King's Landing and we get the Stark dynasty (hmm, would Rob be interested in being King of Westeros, or would he prefer to just be "King in the North"?).

Tywin and the Lannisters not being in ascendance makes the Red Wedding much less likely. Freys are cowards without iron cast guarantees from Tywin they're not sticking their neck out to break the most sacred customs of the land.

The Boltons may never end up charge of Winterfell. I mean the Bastards stuff will play the same but Roose may be forced to repudiate him and stay loyal to the Starks.

Possibly. I feel like Bolton would try to stick the knife (metaphorically or literally) in Rob somehow anyway, but it might come later.

Also: depending on Book or Series verse. Bookverse Dany will be better off, she still has Barristan and has yet to get Tyrion as any aide anyway, so no loss to her as we know her yet.

True. Bookverse Danny will have Barristan, and may do okay (or at least no worse). Show Danny is probably fucked.

[Crazedwraith]

Well, first question we need to sort out is are we talking book or show canon- you're pretty clearly referencing book canon, while I was focussing on show canon (as, I thought, was the OP). And does that make a difference to the timing here.

OP references both, although they get the book series name wrong (Song Of Ice And Fire).

Yes I am and will always reference the books, only having seen the first two series of the show and selected youtube highlights there after.

Does the series show or imply the Red Wedding being planned earlier?

But fair point- its possible the butterfly effect will wipe out the Red Wedding, in which case there is at least a chance that Rob ends up fighting his way to King's Landing and we get the Stark dynasty (hmm, would Rob be interested in being King of Westeros, or would he prefer to just be "King in the North"?).

Depends how much he listens to Cat or not. She would have preferred him having as little as possible iirc.

Tywin and the Lannisters not being in ascendance makes the Red Wedding much less likely. Freys are cowards without iron cast guarantees from Tywin they're not sticking their neck out to break the most sacred customs of the land.

The Boltons may never end up charge of Winterfell. I mean the Bastards stuff will play the same but Roose may be forced to repudiate him and stay loyal to the Starks.

Possibly. I feel like Bolton would try to stick the knife (metaphorically or literally) in Rob somehow anyway, but it might come later.

He absolutely would, but only if he thinks he can realistically get away with it and come out on top.

[The Romulan Republic]

Another factor if the Red Wedding is derailed- Arya may never end up in Essos.

[ANGELUS]

The way I see it, Stannis fleet is not wiped out in the Blackwater, and since there is no strong leadership on the city defenses (with Joffrey been a coward and all) then Stannis manages to enter the city in full force. By the time the Lannister/Tyrell army arrives Stannis army has already entered the city, and without the losses from Tyrion's wildfire trick then we could see a very bloody and lenghty fight on the streets. Who would win? I have no clue... but if Stannis gets to Joffrey, Tommen, Myrcella and Cersei before Tywin does then he will have a huge leverage on Tywin.

Expanding a little on my first post... with the Battle of the Blackwater turning out so different I could see several options:

1- Stannis loses and survives. Goes back to Dragonstone. Receives Maester Aemon's letter and goes up north to fight the wildlings with a sellsword army, just like it originally happened.

2- Stannis loses and dies, he never goes up north and the Nightswatch gets steamrolled by the wildling army.

3- Stannis wins, and he's to busy down south so he never goes up north and the Nightswatch gets steamrolled by the wildling army.

4- The battle is still going on by the time the wildlings invade, so he never goes up north and the Nightswatch gets steamrolled by the wildling army.


So the only chance we get for the Night's Watch to stop Mance's army is if Stannis loses at King's landing but survives. I can also see Robb Stark fucking up like it originally happened an losing the support of his bannermen, leading to his eventual demise. The wildlings would probably settle on The North pillaging every town within reach. One of The North's lords would probably try to rally the others to attack the wildlings (maybe Roose Bolton?), but it would be uncertain if he could get the numbers to defeat them.

At the other side of the Narrow Sea, Danaerys never meets Tyrion, and so her arrival to Westeros is delayed undefinitely. Which leads to the Night King not been able to destroy the Wall, and the army of the dead stays on the other side.

[Solauren]

My Analysis of Tyrion not escaping the Vale

#1 - Lannister forces not reinforced by the Men of the Mountains. May be forced to retreat.
#2 - Tyrion does not become Hand of the King. Odds are, Joffery doesn't listen to, or hinders whomever Tywin sends in his stead.
(It was implied, even with the victory the Men of the Mountains helped claim, he couldn't risk leaving the field. A defeat would make that even harder)
#3 - Tywin is forced to retreat before Robb Stark and his army.
#4 - Stannis's attack on King's Landing succeeds without the Harbor Chain to stop his invasion fleet. Odds are, during the battle, Cersei will still summon Joffery to her, causing the defenders to route/turn. This may cause Cersei to order the execution of everyone in Marge's hold. This would include Sansa, Joffery, Tomlin, and Marcella.
#5 - the Tyrells would break their alliance with the Lannisters. May or may not try to ally with Robb Stark (I believe he's married or at least engaged at this point). Probably will ally with Stannis, using the offer of marrying Margery to get an heir.
#6 - The Lannisters would be forced to surrender. Really, what does Tywin have left to fight for? Better to surrender now, blame it all on Cersei and Joffery, and try to recover what honor he can.
#7 - Stannis is now in control of the Iron Throne.
#8 - Robb Stark may bend the knee to Stannis. Stannis effectively avenging Ned Stark would give him a good opening for it.
#9 - Stannis will probably respond to the Wyldling invasion threat with more forces, find out what's going on and....
#10 - Stannis will let the Wydlings cross if they bend the knee/help man the Wall. Far less Wyldlings get turned into Wights.
#11 - Even if Danny manages to bring her dragons and army to Westeros, she has no reason to go North of the wall. Army of the Dead stays trapped there.

If Stannis and Robb end up clashing, if he's backed by the Tyrells and a now subservant Lannisters, he'll probably win.

Other notes -
Ygrette might survive in this case. If Stannis arrives before the Battle of the Wall, he could cross, talk to Mance, and negotiate the crossing. If so, If Jon is killed by the Night's Watch (still a possibility, as in the novels, they did it after Stannis agreed to let the Wyldlings cross), Jon would be free of his vows, and married to Ygrette.
If Stannis ended up having to kill Robb, he could make Jon legitimate, and Jon still ends up in charge of the North.


Hmm, it's almost like Tyrion, as a dwarf, has magical powers, and dancing kept the dead north of the wall.....

[FaxModem1]

#5 - the Tyrells would break their alliance with the Lannisters. May or may not try to ally with Robb Stark (I believe he's married or at least engaged at this point). Probably will ally with Stannis, using the offer of marrying Margery to get an heir.

Would the Tyrells side with Stannis? Loras would definitely be against the idea, for all that that's worth. And if I remember right, Stannis is already married.

[The Romulan Republic]

My Analysis of Tyrion not escaping the Vale

#1 - Lannister forces not reinforced by the Men of the Mountains. May be forced to retreat.
#2 - Tyrion does not become Hand of the King. Odds are, Joffery doesn't listen to, or hinders whomever Tywin sends in his stead.
(It was implied, even with the victory the Men of the Mountains helped claim, he couldn't risk leaving the field. A defeat would make that even harder)
#3 - Tywin is forced to retreat before Robb Stark and his army.
#4 - Stannis's attack on King's Landing succeeds without the Harbor Chain to stop his invasion fleet. Odds are, during the battle, Cersei will still summon Joffery to her, causing the defenders to route/turn.

Plausible up to this point. I had not counted on the absence of the Mountain Men screwing over Tywin- this scenario could lead to a plausible outright Stannis victory and Kingship as well.

This may cause Cersei to order the execution of everyone in Marge's hold. This would include Sansa, Joffery, Tomlin, and Marcella.

Tommen and Myrcella, but yes, this is likely.

Varys probably survives, though, because he's a slippery fucker.

#5 - the Tyrells would break their alliance with the Lannisters. May or may not try to ally with Robb Stark (I believe he's married or at least engaged at this point). Probably will ally with Stannis, using the offer of marrying Margery to get an heir.

Um, Stannis is married, isn't he?

#6 - The Lannisters would be forced to surrender. Really, what does Tywin have left to fight for? Better to surrender now, blame it all on Cersei and Joffery, and try to recover what honor he can.

You're not factoring in Tywin's pride. I don't think his ego would tolerate such a humiliation of House Lannister, nor would he be willing to set aside his desire for vengeance after his family is slaughtered (he would blame Stannis, and a Lannister always pays their debts). And frankly, he's not utterly crushed, unless he suffers much heavier losses against Robb than in canon. If he can keep the Tyrells on board against Stannis (probably not that hard given what happened to Renly and Stannis's poor diplomacy and PR skills), and play Robb and Stannis against each other, he still has a fair chance to win. Question is, who would he put on the throne? Himself? Jaime?

That said, whether he can play the Starks and Stannis against each other likely depends heavily on who Robb blames for Sansa's death in King's Landing. If he knows she was killed by Lannisters, he goes straight for Tywin and vengeance (the Iron Throne seems to mean little to him). If he blames Stannis, he might go for Stannis instead, in which case Tywin just has to sit back and then mop up whoever's left when the dust settles.

#7 - Stannis is now in control of the Iron Throne.

For the time being. However, outside of some Baratheon lands and King's Landing, what will he control? The Iron Islands are in revolt. Stannis won't accept Northern independence, so he's at war with Robb too (speaking of which, that would be a very interesting battle, as they never met in canon and are among the more capable commanders in Westeros). Tywin and probably the Tyrells will be against him. The Crownlands will probably mostly be against him. Maybe he can convince Dorne to back him as the least of all evils, at least until Danny shows up and they return to their Targaryen loyalties? I just don't think Stannis, for all his evident skill as a commander and all his resolve, is going to be able to hold the entire realm together. He doesn't have the diplomatic tact, and his allegiances to a foreign religion (and one which practices shit like human sacrifice no less) will only make it worse.

#8 - Robb Stark may bend the knee to Stannis. Stannis effectively avenging Ned Stark would give him a good opening for it.

Will the North go for it? But this may be the only chance for Stannis not to get stomped. Him and Robb together could probably bring the Tyrells and Lannisters to heel before Winter comes (and before Danny arrives, if she survives this timeline).

#9 - Stannis will probably respond to the Wyldling invasion threat with more forces, find out what's going on and....
#10 - Stannis will let the Wydlings cross if they bend the knee/help man the Wall. Far less Wyldlings get turned into Wights.

If he makes it up there in time to have any impact on events, yeah. Most likely, he and Robb are putting down southern rebellions for a while (or fighting each other), and Jon negotiates peace with the Wildlings on his own before being assassinated for his troubles.

#11 - Even if Danny manages to bring her dragons and army to Westeros, she has no reason to go North of the wall. Army of the Dead stays trapped there.

Somehow I think the White Walkers would have found a way past the Wall even if they hadn't gotten a chance to turn one of Danny's dragons. Book-verse we don't know how it will happen yet, and show-verse... they've still got 100,000 or more, including giants. The freaking Wildlings nearly took the Wall, and they don't have the Wights' resistance to fear or most weapons.

If Stannis and Robb end up clashing, if he's backed by the Tyrells and a now subservant Lannisters, he'll probably win.

More likely Tywin keeps the Tyrells on board and continues fighting, as above.

Other notes -
Ygrette might survive in this case. If Stannis arrives before the Battle of the Wall, he could cross, talk to Mance, and negotiate the crossing. If so, If Jon is killed by the Night's Watch (still a possibility, as in the novels, they did it after Stannis agreed to let the Wyldlings cross), Jon would be free of his vows, and married to Ygrette.
If Stannis ended up having to kill Robb, he could make Jon legitimate, and Jon still ends up in charge of the North.

Unlikely (see above reg. Stannis having to wage a lengthy campaign to defend his reign down south). Butterfly effect might spare Ygrette, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Hmm, it's almost like Tyrion, as a dwarf, has magical powers, and dancing kept the dead north of the wall.....

But seriously, the dead are coming South, regardless of whether Danny flies North of the wall. And if her dragons don't make it to Westeros, there's probably nothing that will stop them.

[Coop D'etat]

Tyrion is pretty much necessary to prvent a Stannis victory, because a lot turned on Tyrion playing a weak hand well and unconventionally compared to how a plausible other Lannister subordinate who is going to handle things like a conventional Westerosi nobleman. Before he gets to King's Landing he doesn't end up effecting much though (the tribesmen are a minor detail in the Green Fork battle and before Jaime is captured, Tyrion's voice in council isn't going to be considered in Tywin's camp).

#5 - the Tyrells would break their alliance with the Lannisters. May or may not try to ally with Robb Stark (I believe he's married or at least engaged at this point). Probably will ally with Stannis, using the offer of marrying Margery to get an heir.

Would the Tyrells side with Stannis? Loras would definitely be against the idea, for all that that's worth. And if I remember right, Stannis is already married.

Book Tyrells tend to it safe and only back what they think is the winning side and commit themselves to safe fights. On paper they are the most powerful of the great houses in terms of military force and second only to to the Lannisters in wealth (plus control the one of the big three Westerosi navies out of Redwynne). However in practice their command over their vassals is weak. Highgarden itself isn't a fief that overawes the rest into submission (both the Hightowers out of Oldtown and the Redwynnes would stand a decent chance of winning a one on one confrontation) and they're not percieved to have as much legitimacy as the other Great Houses from their subjects, as they are seen by uppercrust Reachmen as being somewhat arrivistes to their position as overlord of the Reach. Prior to the Targaryean conquest, they were just the hereditary stewards of the ruling dynasty and owe their position to Targaryean favour as a House that quickly switched over to the conquering king once they saw which way the wind was blowing.

Hence Mace Tyrell's policy is governed by two factors:
1. Avoid over-extension as they can't risk pushing their vassals too far.
2. Seek a royal marriage connection that improves their prestiege as relatives to the ruling dynasty over their vassals to improve their domestic position.

So the Tyrell's will only move with a lock of getting Margaery wed to the reigning king. If the absence of Tyrion's strong defense of the capital leads Stannis to win at the Blackwater and execute Cersei's children, the Lannister-Tyrell alliance that wins the War of Five Kings for Tywin is most likely over and the Tyrell's retreat to the sidelines to await who wins. Stannis is explicitly aligned through marriage to their local rivals, the Florents (likely deliberate Jon Arryn/Robert Baratheon policy to do this as a hint that the Tyrell's can be replaced by another Reach house if they step out of line) so they won't shift to his side and Twyin can't offer them what they want any more. Not even Jaime is a viable candidate for marriage in this scenario as he's probably still a Stark captive (is release by Catlin was an indirect result of Tyrion's early diplomacy).


Within Westeros, a Stannis victory at the Blackwater probably keeps Robb Stark's cause going strong. Tywin on his own has been consistently getting his teeth kicked in by the Young Wolf and the Bolton-Frey axis are too cautious to want to go against the side that's winning. The actually decision to betray the Stark cause in the OT probably didn't happen until the middle of the third book and in this scenario, neither the Freys nor Boltons can hope to hold their regions post-betrayal without the implicit backing of the Iron Throne. The Iron Born end up being fairly easily expelled from the North itself. They're hopelessly outclassed for inland warfare and haven't succeeded at taking much of the North's military or economic base during their initial invasion (Winterfell is the only asset taken that hurts all that bad and as Asha points out, they never had a hope of holding it). The half of the North's military strength that couldn't be mobilized before Robb could move south in GoT more that suffices to push them back into the sea once organized. The wildlings are even further behind the military curve than the Ironborn, Stannis's forces didn't amount to much more than a single Northern great house and put them completely to rout. So Robb probably can enforce his claims to independence, fight of the North's invaders, and ends up forcing Tywin to sue for peace.

So net effect of this time line is probably Stannis seizes the crown, but can't compel submission from any of the great factions. So Westeros disintegrates into its constituent Kingdoms, with it being the North's turn to hold the Riverlands like the Stormlands and Iron Islands did before Aegon's Conquest. Nobody has the strength or interest to put together a winning coalition among the Great Houses to take the throne otherwise so the old empire probably just falls apart.

[The Romulan Republic]

Hmm, yeah, Tywin's chances go down significantly if the Tyrells bolt. On the other hand, its one thing not to stick your neck out. Its another to back away from an alliance you're already in, especially with someone who is notorious for having such a... thorough view of vengeance against houses that get on his bad side.

I hadn't really thought about the possibility of Jaime not being set free due to the absence of Tyrion. Then again, Jaime is largely irrelevant to the big picture right now.

As to the kingdoms disintegrating... quite possible. The problem is Stannis will never in a thousand years accept that. So Stannis will wage futile war after futile war, depleting what little remains of the realms' strength until either he is deposed by someone (cough-Danny-cough) or until the White Walkers come South and kill everyone.

[FaxModem1]

Hmm, yeah, Tywin's chances go down significantly if the Tyrells bolt. On the other hand, its one thing not to stick your neck out. Its another to back away from an alliance you're already in, especially with someone who is notorious for having such a... thorough view of vengeance against houses that get on his bad side.

Alternatively, Margaery pursues the King of the North rather than the already engaged Joffrey or the already married Stannis.

[The Romulan Republic]

Hmm, yeah, Tywin's chances go down significantly if the Tyrells bolt. On the other hand, its one thing not to stick your neck out. Its another to back away from an alliance you're already in, especially with someone who is notorious for having such a... thorough view of vengeance against houses that get on his bad side.

Alternatively, Margaery pursues the King of the North rather than the already engaged Joffrey or the already married Stannis.

Wasn't Robb already promised to a Frey (and then broke that off to marry someone else) at this point?

[Crazedwraith]

#1 - Lannister forces not reinforced by the Men of the Mountains. May be forced to retreat.

The Mountain clans were in no way a vital or significant part of Twyin's force. He had 300 of them in one battle, they were Tyrion's personal force in the van that Tywin tried to get them and Tyrion killed in it.

They used the weapons they got from the Lannister to raid the Vale not fight in the war. Aside from Tyrion's personal force that accompanied him to King's landing, their most significant contribution was killing off Stannis' scouts which allowed the Lannister/Tyrell ambush of Stannis at Blackwater.

[FaxModem1]

Hmm, yeah, Tywin's chances go down significantly if the Tyrells bolt. On the other hand, its one thing not to stick your neck out. Its another to back away from an alliance you're already in, especially with someone who is notorious for having such a... thorough view of vengeance against houses that get on his bad side.

Alternatively, Margaery pursues the King of the North rather than the already engaged Joffrey or the already married Stannis.

Wasn't Robb already promised to a Frey (and then broke that off to marry someone else) at this point?

Broke off? Not yet, King Robert is still alive right now, and the North hasn't yet even marched to war. If/when Renly is killed by a shadowbaby, then Robb will be engaged to a Frey girl. A Tyrell alliance would be considered a better match than the Freys by all involved(except for the Freys).

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, fuck the Freys.

[Crazedwraith]

Alternatively, Margaery pursues the King of the North rather than the already engaged Joffrey or the already married Stannis.

Wasn't Robb already promised to a Frey (and then broke that off to marry someone else) at this point?

Broke off? Not yet, King Robert is still alive right now, and the North hasn't yet even marched to war. If/when Renly is killed by a shadowbaby, then Robb will be engaged to a Frey girl. A Tyrell alliance would be considered a better match than the Freys by all involved(except for the Freys).

By the time the effects of Tyrion's absence are noticeable and Robb is King In The North as you originally said, he will be engaged to a Frey. Tyrion's disposition won't affect that.

[ANGELUS]

#1 - Lannister forces not reinforced by the Men of the Mountains. May be forced to retreat.

The Mountain clans were in no way a vital or significant part of Twyin's force. He had 300 of them in one battle, they were Tyrion's personal force in the van that Tywin tried to get them and Tyrion killed in it.

They used the weapons they got from the Lannister to raid the Vale not fight in the war. Aside from Tyrion's personal force that accompanied him to King's landing, their most significant contribution was killing off Stannis' scouts which allowed the Lannister/Tyrell ambush of Stannis at Blackwater.

Yes, this seems to be my recolection of the events as well. They were pretty much in just one battle IIRC (the one where Tyrion gets knocked out before it even begins), and that battle was just a decoy from Robb anyway... he sent two thousand soldiers to distract the Lannister army while he moved his other 18,000 to attack a different position (this is where they captured Jamie, isn't it?). So, even if the mountain clans weren't there, still most likely Tywin had the numbers to win that one battle.

[ANGELUS]

11 - Even if Danny manages to bring her dragons and army to Westeros, she has no reason to go North of the wall. Army of the Dead stays trapped there.

Somehow I think the White Walkers would have found a way past the Wall even if they hadn't gotten a chance to turn one of Danny's dragons. Book-verse we don't know how it will happen yet, and show-verse... they've still got 100,000 or more, including giants. The freaking Wildlings nearly took the Wall, and they don't have the Wights' resistance to fear or most weapons.

Well, bookverse we are told that the wall is not just a physical barrier, but that there is magic from the Children of the Forest that prevent the army of the dead to cross (that is why the two undead that were brought back had and atacked Jon and Mormoth had to be carried, they could not do it on their own). Do we ever get told something like this on the show?

[Coop D'etat]

#1 - Lannister forces not reinforced by the Men of the Mountains. May be forced to retreat.

The Mountain clans were in no way a vital or significant part of Twyin's force. He had 300 of them in one battle, they were Tyrion's personal force in the van that Tywin tried to get them and Tyrion killed in it.

They used the weapons they got from the Lannister to raid the Vale not fight in the war. Aside from Tyrion's personal force that accompanied him to King's landing, their most significant contribution was killing off Stannis' scouts which allowed the Lannister/Tyrell ambush of Stannis at Blackwater.

Yes, this seems to be my recolection of the events as well. They were pretty much in just one battle IIRC (the one where Tyrion gets knocked out before it even begins), and that battle was just a decoy from Robb anyway... he sent two thousand soldiers to distract the Lannister army while he moved his other 18,000 to attack a different position (this is where they captured Jamie, isn't it?).

In show continuity, you're correct. In book continuity, they were part of a decoy force on the Lannister left Twyin intended to have break against the Northern right in the hopes that Robb Stark would be over eager to exploit the win and expose himself to a flanking attack by Tywin's reserves. This stratagem failed as the Northern foot lead by Roose Bolton wasn't seeking to win the battle at all, just draw Tywin's force to far from Jaime's host to support them then retreat. So the Northern foot retreated after loosing a melee. There's also speculation that it is Roose was intending to deliberately botch the battle to a limit degree in order to have a bunch of his neighbouring houses take disproportionate causalities in unnecessary fighting while under the plausible deniability of more or less executing Robb Stark's orders.

[FaxModem1]

How instrumental was Tyrion in keeping the population of King's Landing happy? I remember they were having food riots due to Joffery's....leadership.