You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by The Romulan Republic »

The thing about a timer is that if for some reason it malfunctions, then there needs to be someone there to push the button. Also, self-destructing the ship is not really something you want to do if you don't have to, and you sure don't want to do it on a timer in this scenario. Because the goal is to keep the illusion going as long as possible, that the Raadus is running. Having it blow up on a pre-set timer, before it is destroyed by FO guns or disabled, is suspicious as hell. Ideally, for the Leia/Holdo plan, you want it to run until the FO blows it up, so it looks like it was simply destroyed with all hands. Self-destructing is only what you do if Hux decides to take it intact instead.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by Jub »

The Romulan Republic wrote: 2019-03-23 12:41am The thing about a timer is that if for some reason it malfunctions, then there needs to be someone there to push the button. Also, self-destructing the ship is not really something you want to do if you don't have to, and you sure don't want to do it on a timer in this scenario. Because the goal is to keep the illusion going as long as possible, that the Raadus is running. Having it blow up on a pre-set timer, before it is destroyed by FO guns or disabled, is suspicious as hell. Ideally, for the Leia/Holdo plan, you want it to run until the FO blows it up, so it looks like it was simply destroyed with all hands. Self-destructing is only what you do if Hux decides to take it intact instead.
You act as if a dumb timer is the only option when we know that Star Wars has both intelligent and reliable AI and that those AIs aren't valued as highly as organic lifeforms. So just set a contingent of droids to activate the self destruct sequence then. Memory wipe and reprogram them to do the job if you have to.

The same goes for the ramming attempt. If Holdo knows what needs to be done well enough to make the attack she knows how to do it well enough to get a droid programmed to make the same attempt. Even if she can't do the programming personally, there's bound to be a technical crew more than willing to take a crack at it. Then given Wars level computing and flight sim technology as seen in both X-Wing and TIE Fighter they can even give the droid simulator time to make sure their programming works.

It's just pure stupidity all the way down in the new movies and it's sad that you're defending it.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by Patroklos »

The Romulan Republic wrote: 2019-03-23 12:41am The thing about a timer is that if for some reason it malfunctions, then there needs to be someone there to push the button. Also, self-destructing the ship is not really something you want to do if you don't have to, and you sure don't want to do it on a timer in this scenario. Because the goal is to keep the illusion going as long as possible, that the Raadus is running. Having it blow up on a pre-set timer, before it is destroyed by FO guns or disabled, is suspicious as hell. Ideally, for the Leia/Holdo plan, you want it to run until the FO blows it up, so it looks like it was simply destroyed with all hands. Self-destructing is only what you do if Hux decides to take it intact instead.
The Raddus already had a timer, its fuel gauge. Given its space, it is possible to predict exactly when they will run out of fuel and we see them do exactly that. So running indefinetly is not the option, the question is what to do when the Raddus does run out of fuel. I agree that turning and fighting and being destroyed in a last stand would be the most convincing, but presumably fighting the ship convincingly would take a good portion of the crew being onboard.

No matter what, though, they can’t allow the possibility of anyone being taken by the FO alive. That would either allow for the possibility of the details of the Crate plan being found out outright, or other intelligence about other Rebel forces being discovered (I refuse to believe there or no other rebels anywhere). Even letting boarders on the ship at all hazards the FO figuring things out. Fighting risks getting the ship disabled and boarded, and there is an existing rationale for not being captured, so a self destruct is a plausible action that might avoid too much FO suspicion. This is true even if Holdo is technically needed onboard to pilot.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by KraytKing »

A little tangential to current discussion, but in keeping with the original topic: am I the only person who sees Poe's maneuver in the beginning of the film as a brilliant use of resources and sharp tactical thinking rather than an offense worthy of demotion and punishment? In-universe, exclusively. As part of a film, I was not a fan of the way things turned out. But if I was Leia, I would have promoted Dameron and given him more leeway in command, since his instincts were obviously better than mine when it came to destroying dreadnoughts.

Think about it. He lost a squadron of A-Wings and a squadron of bombers and destroyed a fleet-killing war machine. This is the sort of attack that should make Rebels proud, not angry.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

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KraytKing wrote: 2019-03-25 03:09pm A little tangential to current discussion, but in keeping with the original topic: am I the only person who sees Poe's maneuver in the beginning of the film as a brilliant use of resources and sharp tactical thinking rather than an offense worthy of demotion and punishment? In-universe, exclusively. As part of a film, I was not a fan of the way things turned out. But if I was Leia, I would have promoted Dameron and given him more leeway in command, since his instincts were obviously better than mine when it came to destroying dreadnoughts.

Think about it. He lost a squadron of A-Wings and a squadron of bombers and destroyed a fleet-killing war machine. This is the sort of attack that should make Rebels proud, not angry.
It's tactically good but strategically pointless. It delayed their escape from the attacking fleet, their main goal and the FO so outnumbers that one ship, even a dreadnought isn't going to make a difference in the long run.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by Gandalf »

In the long run, what did Dameron's feel good attack actually accomplish, aside from killing a bunch of Resistance pilots? The First Order seemingly has manpower to spare, while the Resistance doesn't.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

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One could argue something similar about the Rebel situation at Yavin. The destruction of the Death Star didn't seem to appreciably slow the Imperial war machine. And the stakes were the same: decapitation of Alliance leadership. The only way the Rebellion could win was by wearing down at Imperial resources in tradeoffs like the Death Star. Endor just happened to present the perfect opportunity for catastrophic Imperial defeat.

Perhaps that is a bit of an extreme example. For a less well cited example, we could take the countless attacks we know happened even if we didn't see them. Each one of those, individually, must have been hardly noticeable losses to the Empire, but they had to occur for the Empire to be brought down.

If we take your logic of "it wouldn't have mattered in the long run because the FO has massive numerical advantage so we may as well not do it," then the FO will always hold the numerical advantage. And in the end, it may have saved the fleet from the autocannons and it didn't prevent the fleet from escaping safely.

Edit: It killed orders of magnitude more First Order crewmembers than Resistance pilots, and there was likely a similar ratio in terms of cost of equipment destroyed, if not more pronounced. If a trade off like that isn't worth it, I don't know what is.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by Gandalf »

There was one Death Star at a time, and they represented a massive change in how the Empire was going to oppress the galaxy. The second one also had the Emperor on board.

There's clearly more than one dreadnought in the FO fleet. They have other big scary ships too. So in the long run it didn't accomplish too much for the Resistance given the costs of both people and opportunity.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

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Gandalf wrote: 2019-03-25 05:03pm There was one Death Star at a time, and they represented a massive change in how the Empire was going to oppress the galaxy. The second one also had the Emperor on board.

There's clearly more than one dreadnought in the FO fleet. They have other big scary ships too. So in the long run it didn't accomplish too much for the Resistance given the costs of both people and opportunity.
Yes, I'll concede that the Death Star is a very different case. But my later three paragraphs (if you can call them that) still stand. It was costly, but you aren't likely to gt a better deal than that.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

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Forces in the same position as the rebels are always trading lives for strategic objectives be those time, enemy material, or to influence civilian populations. Poe's attack traded lives for a massive enemy warship and as the fighters were under his command, to begin with, it was his call to make.

Would a force like that Taliban not sacrifice a large number of their limited resources to sink an aircraft carrier even knowing that the US has many such vessels?
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by Elheru Aran »

Jub wrote: 2019-03-25 05:14pm Forces in the same position as the rebels are always trading lives for strategic objectives be those time, enemy material, or to influence civilian populations. Poe's attack traded lives for a massive enemy warship and as the fighters were under his command, to begin with, it was his call to make.

Would a force like that Taliban not sacrifice a large number of their limited resources to sink an aircraft carrier even knowing that the US has many such vessels?
If the carrier was directly threatening their base and forces? Sure, perhaps (as was the case in the movie). Without that kind of motivation? Not necessarily.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

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Elheru Aran wrote: 2019-03-25 05:29pmIf the carrier was directly threatening their base and forces? Sure, perhaps (as was the case in the movie). Without that kind of motivation? Not necessarily.
The PR spin that would happen because of a handful of fighters taking out a super-dreadnought would be worth it. In the case that we see in the movie the carrier analog was a direct threat and within their reach. They might never get a better chance to destroy something of that size again and trading what a dozen fighters and some bombers for it is excellent value.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

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Jub wrote: 2019-03-25 05:42pm
Elheru Aran wrote: 2019-03-25 05:29pmIf the carrier was directly threatening their base and forces? Sure, perhaps (as was the case in the movie). Without that kind of motivation? Not necessarily.
The PR spin that would happen because of a handful of fighters taking out a super-dreadnought would be worth it. In the case that we see in the movie the carrier analog was a direct threat and within their reach. They might never get a better chance to destroy something of that size again and trading what a dozen fighters and some bombers for it is excellent value.
Does the cost benefit analysis you're offering have anything behind it?
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

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Jub wrote: 2019-03-25 05:42pm
Elheru Aran wrote: 2019-03-25 05:29pmIf the carrier was directly threatening their base and forces? Sure, perhaps (as was the case in the movie). Without that kind of motivation? Not necessarily.
The PR spin that would happen because of a handful of fighters taking out a super-dreadnought would be worth it. In the case that we see in the movie the carrier analog was a direct threat and within their reach. They might never get a better chance to destroy something of that size again and trading what a dozen fighters and some bombers for it is excellent value.

Again, it's rendered instantly pointless when an even larger FO ship shows up straight afterwards. Wouldn't it be ironic if that was the ship that really
had the hyperspace tracker do-dad. (In fact wasn't it? Wasn't that why Finn & Co end up on it?) and if the fleet didn't stop to fight and jumped straight away they;d have gotten away clean.

Are you familiar with the term Pyrrhic victory? Because that's exactly what going for the big impressive kill at the expensive of survival is. A few more victories like and the Resistance is done. (I mean it was anyway by the end of the movie but that's besides the point)

The FO lost a battleship which it has many more. The Resistance lost half it's fighters and all it's bombers to do something it was going to do anyway; escape.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

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Gandalf wrote: 2019-03-25 05:45pmDoes the cost benefit analysis you're offering have anything behind it.
Without knowing the exact composition, or at least a reasonably accurate intelligence statement, of both sides it's impossible to say what the cost/benefit ration ended up as and what it would have been had Poe listened to orders and pulled out right away.

What we do know is a handful of fighters took down a large capital ship.

-----
Crazedwraith wrote: 2019-03-25 05:49pmAgain, it's rendered instantly pointless when an even larger FO ship shows up straight afterwards. Wouldn't it be ironic if that was the ship that really had the hyperspace tracker do-dad. (In fact wasn't it? Wasn't that why Finn & Co end up on it?) and if the fleet didn't stop to fight and jumped straight away they;d have gotten away clean.

Are you familiar with the term Pyrrhic victory? Because that's exactly what going for the big impressive kill at the expensive of survival is. A few more victories like and the Resistance is done. (I mean it was anyway by the end of the movie but that's besides the point)
Would the forces lost in Poe's attack have made a difference in the chase that came after? Probably not. Hell, given their slow sublight speed Cobalt Squadron would have been among the first casualties of the chase unless they had a capital ship to dock with. If that was the case, why were they armed and flying instead of safely docked in the first place?

Does Poe have the authority to arm and launch bombers in the face of Leia's objections or was Cobalt Squadron armed and active in some misguided thought that they served a legitimate defensive purpose?

As for a Pyrrhic victory, doesn't that apply more to the Resistance escape and loss of the Raddus than for the loss of a squadron of bombers which, as seen in the film, and worthless in any battle where the enemy cares to shoot at them? You make the mistake of assigning a value to a force that showed itself to be slow and useless in the face of a reasonable level of opposition.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by Elheru Aran »

Crazedwraith wrote: 2019-03-25 05:49pm The FO lost a battleship which it has many more. The Resistance lost half it's fighters and all it's bombers to do something it was going to do anyway; escape.
If you think about it, had all those bombers hypered away (I didn't see any kind of carrier ship for them, so I'm assuming they had hyperdrives, they were big enough anyway) along with the fighters rather than engaging the dreadnought, they could well have been flying cover for the Raddus when Kylo Ren and his TIE escort attacked it, preventing him from blowing up the bridge and hangar. They would also have been available to possibly escort the Rebels to Crait, or the bombers could have been unloaded and people could have just filled them up to hyper there separately. A lot of possibilities... wasted.

Now if they hadn't engaged the dreadnought, could it have destroyed their fleet? Possibly, yeah. But if Poe and company had been where they were supposed to be, they could've just... left.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by MarxII »

It's been a while since I saw the movie, but is there any indication what would have happened if Poe and those under his command had withdrawn as ordered? At first glance, it seems to me that the destruction of the FO ship was a favorable strategic exchange given the circumstances, or at least would have been by all appearances in-universe. Would that same ship have played a negligible part in the forthcoming operations?
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

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Elheru Aran wrote: 2019-03-25 06:06pmIf you think about it, had all those bombers hypered away (I didn't see any kind of carrier ship for them, so I'm assuming they had hyperdrives, they were big enough anyway) along with the fighters rather than engaging the dreadnought, they could well have been flying cover for the Raddus when Kylo Ren and his TIE escort attacked it, preventing him from blowing up the bridge and hangar.
At best, that forces Kylo to go past Hux and launch more fighters and instead of trading A-Wings and some clearly worthless bombers for a capital ship and its fighter compliment you now trade them for some fighters while still getting the same result. Or do you think some random resistance pilots are going to shoot down a force user?
They would also have been available to possibly escort the Rebels to Crait, or the bombers could have been unloaded and people could have just filled them up to hyper there separately. A lot of possibilities... wasted.
We don't know if the bombers had the endurance for that long of an escort run and regardless we know they didn't have the speed to keep up with the fleet. So either you ditch them and they die, you slow down and you die, or you have them dock which raises the question of why they weren't docked to begin with. The Resistance also never even tried to use shuttles to evacuate key personnel so why should we assume they would have used these bombers for such a purpose?
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by Crazedwraith »

Jub wrote:"
Crazedwraith wrote: 2019-03-25 05:49pmAgain, it's rendered instantly pointless when an even larger FO ship shows up straight afterwards. Wouldn't it be ironic if that was the ship that really had the hyperspace tracker do-dad. (In fact wasn't it? Wasn't that why Finn & Co end up on it?) and if the fleet didn't stop to fight and jumped straight away they;d have gotten away clean.

Are you familiar with the term Pyrrhic victory? Because that's exactly what going for the big impressive kill at the expensive of survival is. A few more victories like and the Resistance is done. (I mean it was anyway by the end of the movie but that's besides the point)
Would the forces lost in Poe's attack have made a difference in the chase that came after? Probably not. Hell, given their slow sublight speed Cobalt Squadron would have been among the first casualties of the chase unless they had a capital ship to dock with. If that was the case, why were they armed and flying instead of safely docked in the first place?

Does Poe have the authority to arm and launch bombers in the face of Leia's objections or was Cobalt Squadron armed and active in some misguided thought that they served a legitimate defensive purpose?
They were presumably flying to escape the same as everyone else. Their use or lack of in the chase scene that did happen is irrelevant because the chase scene wasn't supposed to happen. They were supposed to be free and clear after the hyperjump and would then be able to put to proper use.

The fact that they made such a poor showing against the fighters either means that they're shit and useless in all role or Poe was utilising them in a role they were never supposed to fill.

Just one bomber's payload blew up a dreadnought (albeit via a weakspot) what if using them properly would get them all or more than one of them into a position to drop bombs, multiplying the tonnage destroyed by them. What if using them properly would get them home again and allowed them to be used repeatedly rather than suicide bombings?

As for a Pyrrhic victory, doesn't that apply more to the Resistance escape and loss of the Raddus than for the loss of a squadron of bombers which, as seen in the film, and worthless in any battle where the enemy cares to shoot at them? You make the mistake of assigning a value to a force that showed itself to be slow and useless in the face of a reasonable level of opposition.
It applies to both. They were both Pyhrric victories. What of it?

Again the assumptions the bombers are crap. (If so why have them?) and not just grossly misused.

We don't know if the bombers had the endurance for that long of an escort run and regardless we know they didn't have the speed to keep up with the fleet.
We actually don't afaik. We know they are slow compared to fighters, but so are capital ships.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Crazedwraith wrote: 2019-03-25 03:21pm
KraytKing wrote: 2019-03-25 03:09pm A little tangential to current discussion, but in keeping with the original topic: am I the only person who sees Poe's maneuver in the beginning of the film as a brilliant use of resources and sharp tactical thinking rather than an offense worthy of demotion and punishment? In-universe, exclusively. As part of a film, I was not a fan of the way things turned out. But if I was Leia, I would have promoted Dameron and given him more leeway in command, since his instincts were obviously better than mine when it came to destroying dreadnoughts.

Think about it. He lost a squadron of A-Wings and a squadron of bombers and destroyed a fleet-killing war machine. This is the sort of attack that should make Rebels proud, not angry.
It's tactically good but strategically pointless. It delayed their escape from the attacking fleet, their main goal and the FO so outnumbers that one ship, even a dreadnought isn't going to make a difference in the long run.
This is a frequent argument from the "Poe did no wrong, Holdo sucks" crowd- but it misses a very important point, which Crazedwraith brought up.

Bottom line is, what Poe did (ignoring for the moment that it was in direct violation of orders) was tactically brilliant, and strategically idiotic. In an insurgency or guerilla warfare, where you cannot match the enemy in open battle, you rely on staying out of sight, engaging in hit and run attacks on vulnerable, less-defended targets. You don't try to go head-to-head in the open with the enemy's heaviest units in conventional battle. Leia doubtless knows this, because she spent about ten years working in an insurgency/guerilla army before the Resistance was ever formed.

Poe was trying to fight the First Order as though the Resistance was a conventional military that could match the FO in open battle. But it isn't. Between roughly equivalent forces, trading a couple of squadrons for a dreadnought would be a net gain, and probably would have been considered justified. But when those are the only squadrons you have, and the enemy has a bunch more dreadnoughts, it is proportionally a net loss.

I'm reminded of a line in Return of the King (book version) where someone (Faramir I think) says that they can make Mordor pay with ten men for every one of there's to cross the river, and they'll still come out behind, because Mordor can more easily afford to lose an army than they can afford to lose a company. Same situation here.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

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The Romulan Republic wrote: 2019-03-25 06:32pm
Crazedwraith wrote: 2019-03-25 03:21pm
KraytKing wrote: 2019-03-25 03:09pm A little tangential to current discussion, but in keeping with the original topic: am I the only person who sees Poe's maneuver in the beginning of the film as a brilliant use of resources and sharp tactical thinking rather than an offense worthy of demotion and punishment? In-universe, exclusively. As part of a film, I was not a fan of the way things turned out. But if I was Leia, I would have promoted Dameron and given him more leeway in command, since his instincts were obviously better than mine when it came to destroying dreadnoughts.

Think about it. He lost a squadron of A-Wings and a squadron of bombers and destroyed a fleet-killing war machine. This is the sort of attack that should make Rebels proud, not angry.
It's tactically good but strategically pointless. It delayed their escape from the attacking fleet, their main goal and the FO so outnumbers that one ship, even a dreadnought isn't going to make a difference in the long run.
This is a frequent argument from the "Poe did no wrong, Holdo sucks" crowd- but it misses a very important point, which Crazedwraith brought up.

Bottom line is, what Poe did (ignoring for the moment that it was in direct violation of orders) was tactically brilliant, and strategically idiotic. In an insurgency or guerilla warfare, where you cannot match the enemy in open battle, you rely on staying out of sight, engaging in hit and run attacks on vulnerable, less-defended targets. You don't try to go head-to-head in the open with the enemy's heaviest units in conventional battle. Leia doubtless knows this, because she spent about ten years working in an insurgency/guerilla army before the Resistance was ever formed.

Poe was trying to fight the First Order as though the Resistance was a conventional military that could match the FO in open battle. But it isn't. Between roughly equivalent forces, trading a couple of squadrons for a dreadnought would be a net gain, and probably would have been considered justified. But when those are the only squadrons you have, and the enemy has a bunch more dreadnoughts, it is proportionally a net loss.

I'm reminded of a line in Return of the King (book version) where someone (Faramir I think) says that they can make Mordor pay with ten men for every one of there's to cross the river, and they'll still come out behind, because Mordor can more easily afford to lose an army than they can afford to lose a company. Same situation here.
If Poe is making the assumption that they can get reinforcements from the NR fleet remnants, then it is a decent strategic victory as well. The remnants of the NR need to avoid a fleet-killer at all cost.

What Poe doesn't know is the NR remnants are utterly incapable of forming any resistance.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by Eternal_Freedom »

The bomber attack did accomplish one thing beyond just blowing up the dreadnoguht - from what little we saw, Captain Genardy (IIRC) was a lot more competent than Hux was. Getting rid of a competent senior officer (something the FO sorely lacks) mayindeed be worth it.
Baltar: "I don't want to miss a moment of the last Battlestar's destruction!"
Centurion: "Sir, I really think you should look at the other Battlestar."
Baltar: "What are you babbling about other...it's impossible!"
Centurion: "No. It is a Battlestar."

Corrax Entry 7:17: So you walk eternally through the shadow realms, standing against evil where all others falter. May your thirst for retribution never quench, may the blood on your sword never dry, and may we never need you again.
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Elheru Aran
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by Elheru Aran »

ray245 wrote: 2019-03-25 06:37pm If Poe is making the assumption that they can get reinforcements from the NR fleet remnants, then it is a decent strategic victory as well. The remnants of the NR need to avoid a fleet-killer at all cost.

What Poe doesn't know is the NR remnants are utterly incapable of forming any resistance.
A quick point: how are you saying "the NR remnants are utterly incapable" etc.? Is this discussed in the novelization or other current post-TFA EU?
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Jub
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by Jub »

Crazedwraith wrote: 2019-03-25 06:24pmThey were presumably flying to escape the same as everyone else. Their use or lack of in the chase scene that did happen is irrelevant because the chase scene wasn't supposed to happen. They were supposed to be free and clear after the hyperjump and would then be able to put to proper use.
Then why were they armed? Surely they weren't stored that way and loading them means they weren't evacuated as efficiently as they could have been. Did Poe order them armed, if so why did nobody stop him at that junction? If they were ordered to be armed, why?
The fact that they made such a poor showing against the fighters either means that they're shit and useless in all role or Poe was utilising them in a role they were never supposed to fill.
Given the ubiquity of fighters and the slow speed of the bombers show the role they're designed to fill?
Just one bomber's payload blew up a dreadnought (albeit via a weakspot) what if using them properly would get them all or more than one of them into a position to drop bombs, multiplying the tonnage destroyed by them. What if using them properly would get them home again and allowed them to be used repeatedly rather than suicide bombings?
Again, that only makes sense if you can find places to use them where no point defenses or fighters exist to counter them. As we've seen such situations are vanishingly rare. The Alliance, a group with a similar lack of resources, preferred to use fighters such as the A-Wing, X-Wing, and Y-Wing even for strikes against capital ships and other hardened targets. Please show what use these bombers have that fighters are incapable of?

Again the assumptions the bombers are crap. (If so why have them?) and not just grossly misused.
If technicals are crap, and they are, why do insurgent forces use them? If the Stringbags used in WWII were crap, why did the Brits use them?

We actually don't afaik. We know they are slow compared to fighters, but so are capital ships.
We can see them moving over the Fulminatrix's hull and they were ponderous to a degree which we know even capital ships aren't. So are their targeting computers so shit they can't bomb at more than a crawl or are the bombers just that slow? It doesn't matter because either situation makes the bombers a worthless asset.
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Re: You command the Battle of Crait (RAR).

Post by Crazedwraith »

I imagine a lot of people are sick as I am of hearing the word subversion attached to this movie. But really the dreadnought scene is a microcosm of Poe's greater arc in the film. 'Here is Poe. He's a maverick renegade. He ingores authority and does what's right! Look at the badass. Oh wait, turns out authority was right and he's fucked it up."

The trouble is people are a lot more convinced by the set-up than the reversal.
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