Stannis can't get it up (RAR)

[FaxModem1]

In season 2 of Game of Thrones, Stannis breaks the vow of marriage to have a 'son' with Melissandre. This son is in reality dark magic used to kill Renly, which allows Stannis to absorb his army. What happens if its extraordinarily cold that night, Stannis is just too stressed because of the upcoming battle, he can't lie down and think of Westeros, or he just remembers that he's a married man?

How fares the Clash of Kings when Renly isn't murdered by a shadow baby?

[Shroom Man 777]

...this premise is amazing.

[Raw Shark]

While I agree that it is chock full of discussion potential and elegance, I must dispute the plausibility of this premise at its root. We're not talking about some bush league stud here, he's a Baratheon. The first of his brood has sixteen bastards, most of whom he doesn't even know about. He managed to grit his teeth and knock up Selyse Florent, which had to be like sticking his junk into a beehive in the anticipation phase. His younger brother fully intended to do the same to Margaery Tyrell despite loving giant hard cocks, which is frankly what the house's emblem should actually be instead of a Deer Crossing sign. The Targaryens may have fire in their veins, and the Starks may have ice, but the Baratheons bleed Viagra.

[Avrjoe]

I nominate this as the greatest argument to ever grace this board! It is a wonder Melissandre didn't have twins.

[Crazedwraith]

So to actually address the issue. It depends if after failing to get it up, Stannis retreats and maintain forces or offers battle to Renly. He'll go down but I'd expect Stannis would inflict great losses on Renly than the numbers would suggest.

Renly then would pick up Stannis' forces such as they are, most advantageous would be of Stannis' fleet defects to Renly.

If he acts quickly then his version of the Battle Of Blackwater would be a bigger success than Stannis'. With his larger force and no ready made Army against him behind his back. He should be able to take King's Landing and kill/capture Cersei, Tyrion and Joffery. (Capture would be his preference) with Tommen and Myrcella elsewhere for Tywin to rally around.

That's if he acts quickly, which Renly doesn't really do in CoK. Though this might actuallly work to his advantage, being slower than Stannis, means Tywin might actually return to the West to fight Robb before getting news of Renly's attack even with Edmure's delaying action.

Renly himself seem a shitty leader, dallying with his favourites and his young Guard rather than the voices of experience around him. But he has a big army, and the Reach is both rich and contributes proportionally more to the food of the realm.

Plus he has Randall Tarly on his side, widely recognised as one of the greatest soldiers of the Realm, he just actually needs to listen to him.

[The Romulan Republic]

I nominate this as the greatest argument to ever grace this board! It is a wonder Melissandre didn't have twins.

Wonder if Spoiler

Arya is carrying a little No One now. Actually that would kind of suck, because I'm pretty sure Arya would hate that.

Anyway, I wonder if in this scenario Mel will come up with a new plan, or desert Stannis, or what.

[Coop D'etat]

Are we talking book or show?

Book Stannis was planning to try and Agincourt Renly's all cavalry army with prepared positions and archery while the Reach chivalry under a rash 17 year old (Loras) with no experience charges headlong into the trap while overall command is in the hands of a king with no martial ability.

So Stannis wouldn't run. He'd roll the dice now on the gamble he can make up for massive material difficencies by out-generaling his opponent. The one real soldier Renly' has, Randyl Tarly, is supicious he's trying to pull something, but he's getting ignored by the Knights of Summer.

So Stannis at least has a fighting chance to pull off a huge upset. He knows his material circumstances are poor, so he's willing to run those kinds of risks to win.

[Ziggy Stardust]

The problem that this is all assuming the premise that Melisandre couldn't do something else, either use a different spell to kill Renley or use some magical Viagra on Stannis or anything else. I mean, the entire point of her plot-line is that she doesn't actually have any power, it's just the actions of the Lord of Light essentially forcing some prophecy to unfold. If Renley had to die for the Lord of Light's plan, whatever that plan was, then he was going to die. Changing the details of the precise mechanism doesn't seem to matter all that much, given the vagaries of the way magic works in Thrones.

[Coop D'etat]

The problem that this is all assuming the premise that Melisandre couldn't do something else, either use a different spell to kill Renley or use some magical Viagra on Stannis or anything else. I mean, the entire point of her plot-line is that she doesn't actually have any power, it's just the actions of the Lord of Light essentially forcing some prophecy to unfold. If Renley had to die for the Lord of Light's plan, whatever that plan was, then he was going to die. Changing the details of the precise mechanism doesn't seem to matter all that much, given the vagaries of the way magic works in Thrones.

I don't think that's the point of her plotline at all.

Mel publically pushes the line that she is just the instrument of the LoL, because she's selling that religion on people. The truth seems to be that she's a fairly accomplished fire mage with real but unreliable ability to see the future, who is using that along with showmanship to sell her beliefs to the heathen. She isn't a straight up fraud, she believes wholeheartedly in her faith, but she's not above misdirection to advance her cause.

So she foretold Renly's death and then did her damnedest to make it happen by shadowbady assassin. It's unclear if it was a legit prophecy or just something she said because she know she could make it happen.

[The Romulan Republic]

I am definitely going to refer to the Lord of Light as the Lol from now on, as it accurately captures the level of respect I have for the child-burning faith.

[Solauren]

I am definitely going to refer to the Lord of Light as the Lol from now on, as it accurately captures the level of respect I have for the child-burning faith.

Actually, was that his Faith, or just Melisandre going to any lengths?
I don't recall any of the other Red Priests we encountered doing the whole 'human sacrifice' thing.

[The Romulan Republic]

Fair enough, I guess.

I seem to recall that its referenced in the books as a practice of the LoL, but I could be wrong. I know the show better.

[Lord Revan]

I am definitely going to refer to the Lord of Light as the Lol from now on, as it accurately captures the level of respect I have for the child-burning faith.

Actually, was that his Faith, or just Melisandre going to any lengths?
I don't recall any of the other Red Priests we encountered doing the whole 'human sacrifice' thing.

To be honest we've seen only 2 Red Priests in any detail in the TV series Malisandre and Thoros of Myr so it's kind of hard say anything based on the show.

[FaxModem1]

Remember, Melissandre is the Red Woman, she works for the Lord of Light, not the woman who provides the blue pill. So if Stannis has problems, she probably won't be able to help there.

[Themightytom]

I am definitely going to refer to the Lord of Light as the Lol from now on, as it accurately captures the level of respect I have for the child-burning faith.

Actually, was that his Faith, or just Melisandre going to any lengths?
I don't recall any of the other Red Priests we encountered doing the whole 'human sacrifice' thing.

To be honest we've seen only 2 Red Priests in any detail in the TV series Malisandre and Thoros of Myr so it's kind of hard say anything based on the show.

Wasn't there another one that Tyrion convinced to preach for Danaerys when she was missing? I also had the impression that flame sacrifice was a thing for the church of lol. I agree Melisandre would have found another way, leeches come to mind.. or Stannis would keep trying, he made a other advance on Melisandre anyway.

But if Melisandre ended up trapped in Gendry's row boat for two seasons, I think Renly would have fought Stannis, done poorly and allied with Robb. Highgarden didn't fare so well against the Lannisters, and Renly seems unmotivated to truly fight, but once it starts, he's got numbers. Renly does politics. So Stannis and Renly fight, Renly wins due to numbers but takes heavy losses. Stannis would slink off with the survivors of his fleet. The alliance with Robb would become more essential at that point, but Littlefinger might actually open the gates of Kings' Landing as he ofdd, especially with Catelyn with Renly.

I think the problems come later, Cersei has to go for Renly to remain unchallenged and Tywin will not take that lying down, but on the other hand, if Jamie is ransomed back he's free from the king's guard. We might see them exiled, but in Westeros? I think Cersei's family would be slaughtered, Jamie might or might not escape, if he doesn't, Tywin will burn down the kingdoms, if he does Jamie will avenge Cersei, and there is probably a way to do that. Tyrion night survive to become Lord of the house but... Only as a last resort. Sansa will leave King's Landing at the literal first opportunity.

I don't think Theon takes Winterfell, which means Bran is unlikely to travel north. The three eyed raven stays in his tree so the Night King really stays Jon's fight.

The wildlings would probably break through castle black into the North, and Robb would have to fall back or lose his bannermen. Renly might hold King's Landing on his own but Tywin would definitely lay siege and Jamie knows about all the explosives under King's Landing. I could see King's Landing being levelled as revenge for Cersei's death. I think mycella was in Dorne by now so she or Tyrion might be the last Lannisters standing.

Robb would fight the wildlings, and he MIGHT listen to Jon about the wall, Jon could end up with a ton of former Lannisters sent to the wall. Castle Black might last only slightly longer at this point because the Night King didn't stop to go hunt for Bran and the 3 eyed raven. He could just move on the wall.

So at this point I'd be crossing off the Lannisters and the Baratheons, as well as King's Landing. The seven kingdoms would be pretty splintered. Danaerys is still a ways away from getting any ships, the iron born are still raiding along the coast, Stannis is lurking around with Her Davos, and the Starks are probably either fighting wildlings or aware that the night King is real.

The Hound would have gotten Arya to Catelyn by now. I feel like Margaery would have somehow survived Kings landing and returned to HighGarden as surviving queen. Little finger and Olanna might ally the Knights of the Vale with HighGarden. Melisandre can come out of her rowboat now and head north to Jon on her own. With a bunch of criminals in the night's watch she might get her sacrificing going or something and build a power base she can convert into opportunity to strike at the night king. I think Stannis would just go home at this point, to Storms end. Once King's Landing is gone, it's a different scenario.

Danaerys might cross the sea sooner if she hears that the south is in disarray and nobody is at dragonstone but if she goes too early it would be during the time where she's fighting with her dragons or when yunkai is vulnerable. She'd have the second sons and the unsullied but not the Dothraki. Its easier to imagine she just goes at the same time we saw but that kind of delay means all kinds of changes could be happening in the south and it's hard to tell how things would be going in the North. If Rob fights off the king beyond the Wall and reaches some kind of stalemate John would probably broker a truce between them all and I think he would still go to hardhome, but he wouldn't have Stannis' fleet.

I'd imagine with the Lannisters back in Lannisport, and the Starks back in the North, the Ironborn would get back in line and they would be the ones who go to Hardhome. I can only imagine their reaction to seeing the army of the dead. I have no idea how the north under Robb would react to the wilding refugees, so a lot of this depends on Jon's persuasion. Bran never became the 3 eyed raven, but Sam might still go to the citadel. I'm not sure anyone would ever figure out who Jon's parents really were. He might travel to dragon stone to ask for dragon glass, Danarys might not give him the time of day because he is not a King. I think she would at least listen though, because he also isn't a rival, and he might also start to connect with Rhaegal.

I don't think Danarys would go beyond the Wall to rescue Jon, and there's no reason to go collect a wight because the North is much more United and plenty of people will have seen them. Danaerys might travel to the wall and her dragons would help hold the wall against a major attack but the night king wouldn't pass the wall, the night would be much much longer. I think ultimately Danaerys would have air superiority, allies and a much better environment to return to. I think we'd see a lot less infighting without King's landing but Danaerys would probably choose a seat of power, or try to rebuild Kings landing, she night leave the North alone because they are fighting winter, but she would conquer the rest of Westeros in the mean time, and come for the North last, just because it's not as easily attainable and they are serving a purpose.

[Ziggy Stardust]

I don't think that's the point of her plotline at all.

Mel publically pushes the line that she is just the instrument of the LoL, because she's selling that religion on people. The truth seems to be that she's a fairly accomplished fire mage with real but unreliable ability to see the future, who is using that along with showmanship to sell her beliefs to the heathen. She isn't a straight up fraud, she believes wholeheartedly in her faith, but she's not above misdirection to advance her cause.

So she foretold Renly's death and then did her damnedest to make it happen by shadowbady assassin. It's unclear if it was a legit prophecy or just something she said because she know she could make it happen.

I'll just start by clarifying I am talking about the show, I have no idea what her plotline is like in the books.

But the TV show makes the plotline I described very explicit. Hell, Melisandre has dialogue that is almost word-for-word what I said, as do Beric and Thoros of Myr. I don't think the show offers any evidence that they are all lying or mistaken.

I also don't understand why you think I called her a fraud? I never called her a fraud. But she doesn't have any magical abilities; she straight up says so multiple times. The only powers she has is what the Lord of Light gives her at that moment to accomplish a specific task. At least on the show.

[Crazedwraith]

I don't think that's the point of her plotline at all.

Mel publically pushes the line that she is just the instrument of the LoL, because she's selling that religion on people. The truth seems to be that she's a fairly accomplished fire mage with real but unreliable ability to see the future, who is using that along with showmanship to sell her beliefs to the heathen. She isn't a straight up fraud, she believes wholeheartedly in her faith, but she's not above misdirection to advance her cause.

So she foretold Renly's death and then did her damnedest to make it happen by shadowbady assassin. It's unclear if it was a legit prophecy or just something she said because she know she could make it happen.

I'll just start by clarifying I am talking about the show, I have no idea what her plotline is like in the books.

But the TV show makes the plotline I described very explicit. Hell, Melisandre has dialogue that is almost word-for-word what I said, as do Beric and Thoros of Myr. I don't think the show offers any evidence that they are all lying or mistaken.

I also don't understand why you think I called her a fraud? I never called her a fraud. But she doesn't have any magical abilities; she straight up says so multiple times. The only powers she has is what the Lord of Light gives her at that moment to accomplish a specific task. At least on the show.

That seems pretty dodgy considering she is mistakenly backing the wrong horse (Stannis) as the Prince That Was Promised. Unless the LoL himself is unsure who to back.

[Coop D'etat]

I don't think that's the point of her plotline at all.

Mel publically pushes the line that she is just the instrument of the LoL, because she's selling that religion on people. The truth seems to be that she's a fairly accomplished fire mage with real but unreliable ability to see the future, who is using that along with showmanship to sell her beliefs to the heathen. She isn't a straight up fraud, she believes wholeheartedly in her faith, but she's not above misdirection to advance her cause.

So she foretold Renly's death and then did her damnedest to make it happen by shadowbady assassin. It's unclear if it was a legit prophecy or just something she said because she know she could make it happen.

I'll just start by clarifying I am talking about the show, I have no idea what her plotline is like in the books.

But the TV show makes the plotline I described very explicit. Hell, Melisandre has dialogue that is almost word-for-word what I said, as do Beric and Thoros of Myr. I don't think the show offers any evidence that they are all lying or mistaken.

I also don't understand why you think I called her a fraud? I never called her a fraud. But she doesn't have any magical abilities; she straight up says so multiple times. The only powers she has is what the Lord of Light gives her at that moment to accomplish a specific task. At least on the show.

Oh, I think it's quite clear Mel is a true believer and thinks her powers are the actions of the LoL. I don't think her belief confirms the LoL's existence or that he's acting through Mel. True metaphysics remain ambiguous if their is a fire good working and even if he does exist, whether Mel's beliefs about him are at all accurate.

Basically she's an unreliable source of what's going on, she clearly at best doesn't have the whole story and is wrong about some things. So you shouldn't take her statements as true exposition, but those of a powerful fanatic who wants people to believe what she believes.

[Solauren]

There is also the question of if Mel is even in Westros with authorization from the higher ups in her faith.

It's clear Thoros of Myr IS (as Mel even says to him 'You were supposed to convert King Robert'). However, we have no evidence that Melissandre was actually sent by her faith. For all we know, she's a 'Rogue' within the faith of the LOL, and her particular use of blood and sacrifice was considered heretical.

[Crazedwraith]

There is also the question of if Mel is even in Westros with authorization from the higher ups in her faith.

It's clear Thoros of Myr IS (as Mel even says to him 'You were supposed to convert King Robert'). However, we have no evidence that Melissandre was actually sent by her faith. For all we know, she's a 'Rogue' within the faith of the LOL, and her particular use of blood and sacrifice was considered heretical.

In the books at least Thoros was sent to convert Aerys not Robert, the Church felt Aerys with his love of fire was a potential convert.

[Solauren]

There is also the question of if Mel is even in Westros with authorization from the higher ups in her faith.

It's clear Thoros of Myr IS (as Mel even says to him 'You were supposed to convert King Robert'). However, we have no evidence that Melissandre was actually sent by her faith. For all we know, she's a 'Rogue' within the faith of the LOL, and her particular use of blood and sacrifice was considered heretical.

In the books at least Thoros was sent to convert Aerys not Robert, the Church felt Aerys with his love of fire was a potential convert.

The TV qoute never happened in the books, as Melissandre never interacted with the Brotherhood without Banners.