Brexit and not very united kingdom politics II

[Coop D'etat]

I think corbyn has played this reasonbly well so far. The core labour vote is not as split as the tories on the issue, but him taking a stance for either extreme would wreck the labour vote for years and years.
There might be frustration and voting defections to the lib dems or brexit party in the short term, but long term labour needs to be implement the progressive policies their support is based on.

As a lot of people have pointed out, his strategy was a reasonable one for 2017 to keep the party together and hope the Tories implode on the issue. The situation has evolved since then and not in his favour.

[madd0ct0r]

Corbyn believes that Brexit is not the overriding single issue thing that some people want it to be. He often talks about other societal ills than Brexit in PMQs. Like homelessness. It's entirely possible that a labour brexit deal with them in charge of policy will result in better lives for many poor people in the UK even as the GDP sinks and things get worse for the middle classes and rich, because he will increase taxation, borrowing and redistribute resources downwards. And to Corbyn that outcome would be a net positive. Many people though seem to require being staunchly pro-EU in order to qualify for good guy status.

And some people just want everyone to pretend it's the 2012 olympics forever.

Agreed on every point.
These people have not seen their lives improve since the referendum and frankly (quite rightly) do not give a shit about the comfortably well off.

[His Divine Shadow]

And the middle-class and upper-class might view this in anger as they see the working-class as directly damaging their wealth and economic prospects for voting leave and be even more against Labour. Labour might control the seats in the North, but that alone isn't enough to command a majority. With Scotland effectively out of Labour's hands, Labour need to win some amount of support from the South. If the South are firmly Lib-dems and Tory, then Labour might not win enough seats to form a government.

Which is why Labour is talking in terms of a 2nd referendum, voting on their brexit deal or remaining in the EU, instead of going strictly brexit or remain. If they did either fully they would loose. In this case it's best to appeal to democracy, they are already following their most optimal course for gaining votes.

Labour goes fully remain and they are done for. Which is why the lib dems who have spent the last 3 years demanding a referendum suddenly thought it wasn't good enough once Corbyn said yes to it and moved the goalposts. They naturally want to destroy Labours electoral chances. The current Lib Dem leader loathes Corbyns politics and has a history of voting more Tory than actual Tories, also refuses to rule out a coalition with the Tories so we can see where the lib dems are going, as well as having several tories gone over to them, no problem them being anti-LGBT btw.

[ray245]

Which is why Labour is talking in terms of a 2nd referendum, voting on their brexit deal or remaining in the EU, instead of going strictly brexit or remain. If they did either fully they would loose. In this case it's best to appeal to democracy, they are already following their most optimal course for gaining votes.

It won't help them much if the Brexiters won the 2nd referendum. The problem while the Brexiters are fully convinced life will be better after Brexit, every politician knows this won't be the case. The voters want something that the politicians cannot deliver to them.

Labour goes fully remain and they are done for. Which is why the lib dems who have spent the last 3 years demanding a referendum suddenly thought it wasn't good enough once Corbyn said yes to it and moved the goalposts. They naturally want to destroy Labours electoral chances. The current Lib Dem leader loathes Corbyns politics and has a history of voting more Tory than actual Tories, also refuses to rule out a coalition with the Tories so we can see where the lib dems are going, as well as having several tories gone over to them, no problem them being anti-LGBT btw.

The current issue isn't about winning the election. It's basically every political party wanting to pass the buck to someone else when Brexit actually happens, and they can blame the other party for the mess that occurs AFTER Brexit. Lib Dems want to be in a prime position to gain all the seats when Brexit happens and reality fully sinks in for the Brexiters.

The electorate is now fully convinced that Brexit will be a good thing, and that's the thing that is making Labour and the Tories in such a mess right now.

[His Divine Shadow]

I don't see the problem, that presupposes Labour won the election then and will be holding a new referendum on the options, Labour brexit or remain, so if the voters still back a labour soft brexit, then that is what must happen. I refer to what I wrote earlier re corbyns priorities and not caring if the GDP takes a hit, they will have their chance at reshaping the economy of the UK in radical ways.

The only chance Labour has of implementing its policies is to win a GE so naturally that is what they are after, they aren't after keeping the UK in the EU at all costs. The only realistic chance the UK has of remaining in the EU is the 2nd referendum that Labour offers, the other options are tantamount to tearing up the 2016 referendum and saying it did not matter and after all that has passed, that would not be good for democracy in the UK.

[Vendetta]

Labour won't be winning any general elections until Brexit is dead and gone or they change leadership and take a realistic position.

Because the party is internally divided over it and the leadership team plus Len McCluskey have responded in the only way they know, an attempted loyalty purge to abolish the position of Tom Watson, the person they can't sack (because he's elected by the membership not the leadership) and the only reason that this internal shitshow at their conference was not the talk of the news cycle was that it was upstaged by a constitutional crisis and the subsequent ill behaviour of the Prime Minister.

A lot of Corbyn's passionate youth support has fucked off over Brexit, the press has monstered him at every opportunity, and his own party which never liked him has been provided with ever new reasons to hate his guts and won't effectively campaign whilst he's in charge.


And their Brexit position is about as fucked as Boris's. Resting as it does on a general election, which they won't win, and a new deal, which Europe won't give them because it splits the four freedoms which are indivisible.

There are only three possible outcomes for Brexit, No Deal, May's Deal, or No Brexit.

Anyone who won't pick one of those three is being unrealistic. (Boris has picked No Deal but is denying it so he can run out the clock until it happens by default so he can turn the UK into a tax haven for his rich friends).

[His Divine Shadow]

A realistic position I can only assume means they fully back remain, so they will lose most definitely in any election. There is no way for the UK any longer to remain the EU except that offered by a 2nd referendum, it's the one chance left, all others lead to brexit or tearing the UK apart from the inside.

I haven't seen where labours policies go against the four freedoms, at any rate any labour deal would be hashed out with the EU yet. Once a general election is in swing, things changes, media rules changes. Labour has a definite chance of winning an election.

[Lost Soal]

The only part of The Deal which the EU was willing to negotiate on was a better alternative to the Irish Backstop, to which the Tories response was, "We can't meet your deadline, we need another year." In other words despite their repeated complaints and claims about the border, they have no clue what to do and they never will.

[ray245]

A realistic position I can only assume means they fully back remain, so they will lose most definitely in any election. There is no way for the UK any longer to remain the EU except that offered by a 2nd referendum, it's the one chance left, all others lead to brexit or tearing the UK apart from the inside.

I haven't seen where labours policies go against the four freedoms, at any rate any labour deal would be hashed out with the EU yet. Once a general election is in swing, things changes, media rules changes. Labour has a definite chance of winning an election.

You're assuming the EU is willing to renegotiate an entirely new deal in the event Labour comes to power. There has not been anything concrete regarding this possibility, as the EU have repeatedly said they are not keen on re-negotiations.

The issue right now is the British public as a whole ( from the politicians to your average voter on the streets, both left and right-wing) are in this fairy tale universe where they can expect the EU to give them a deal they want. As long as the British voting public remain stuck in this mindset, we will end up in a no-deal scenario.

Labour can object to no-deal Brexit, but there is nothing they can do to actually stop it.

[madd0ct0r]

Seen on reddit

"‘Farage asks for a pint. The barman draws it & throws it into his face. 'Why did you do that?' 'You asked for a pint, but you didn't say how you wanted it delivered.' Farage: ‘I'll have a pint in a pint glass.' 'No. You can't ask again.' 'Why not?' 'Democracy.'""

[Zaune]

And yet more good news... https://twitter.com/TomWills/status/1181528753400401920

Britain's Home Office neither confirms nor denies it has identified sites to use as internment camps in the event of a no-deal Brexit, saying it needs a "safe space to develop ideas".

12-page FOI refusal with my highlights below. Anyone with concrete info please get in touch.

Can we go back to the days when having a bug-out bag and a hunting crossbow stashed in my airing cupboard meant I was probably a bit mad, please?

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Boris Johnson now has seven days until the Benn Act deadline.

A quick update in the meantime. On Thursday Bojo and Varadkar held talks in a wedding venue (don't ask), and much talk was made of progress and intense negotiations to come. Hints were also dropped that Bojo is willing to compromise on the Irish border issue; leaving Northern Ireland in the Customs Union and putting the requisite hard border in the Irish Sea. There has been no apparent progress since.

I can sort-of believe this. It's both the obvious solution and the only way I can see Bojo getting a deal through Parliament before the 19th. Also, having blown his own majority, the DUP is of little further help to him, so he may have decided that they aren't worth appeasing any more.

Then again, it could just be Bojo offering a concession he has no intention of actually making so as to look like he's really trying for a deal. In other words, the usual.

[SpottedKitty]

Hints were also dropped that Bojo is willing to compromise on the Irish border issue; leaving Northern Ireland in the Customs Union and putting the requisite hard border in the Irish Sea.

Well, that one's going to be lots of fun for businesses. The last place I worked at sent deliveries (anything from a small box to a lorryload of pallets) all over the UK mainland, and sometimes to Ireland and Europe. Since I was the despatch department, for a while I had to deal with the paperwork. It was a headache then, it's going to be lots more complicated if that's the way things end up going.

[LaCroix]

This whole show and dance about the backstop and Northern Ireland is so stupid.

Especially since everyone who looks at the statistics knows that Reunification is only a question of years, a decade at most until the Good Fryday Agreement clause kicks in.

[SpottedKitty]

Especially since everyone who looks at the statistics knows that Reunification is only a question of years, a decade at most until the Good Fryday Agreement clause kicks in.

What clause is this? I don't think I've heard of it before, and I don't remember reunification being mentioned as a plausible/possible option in news reports.

[LaCroix]

Especially since everyone who looks at the statistics knows that Reunification is only a question of years, a decade at most until the Good Fryday Agreement clause kicks in.

What clause is this? I don't think I've heard of it before, and I don't remember reunification being mentioned as a plausible/possible option in news reports.

No? It's the central point of the "Good friday agreement".

The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland shall exercise the power [to hold a referendum] if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland". Such referenda may not take place within seven years of each other.

With how there is a clear split in the question between protestant and catholic demographic, and catholics are reproducing a lot faster, the issue is growing closer and closer to the point where the Secretary will see a chance to trigger the referendum. Especially since now it's also an EU issue, and younger people identify with being EU citizen a lot more than the older demographic that still "yearn for the days of the Empire".

Since on such referenda, the people wanting change always turn out overproportinally, and the split is growing closer, anyway it remains to see who can motivate more of the "undecided" 30% of people if they actually start a referendum and campaign on it. Issues with how hard Brexit will hit will hasten the process, and NI is supposed to be hit a lot harder in a No deal, and will have a very good view on why they would like to join Ireland if they get a "lighter sentence" under a "NI exclusion zone" deal Brexit. Lately, polls have been VERY close.

It's a known issue, and come so far that May and Johnson were both avoding to answer the question if NI shall remain in the Union whenever it gets asked. They know it's something they have no control over, and don't want to be nailed down on anything concrete in that regard.

[madd0ct0r]

There is a complexity there, in that a good chunk of Catholic population growth are EU nationals. ( see place of birth header here.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogra ... rn_Ireland )

It is not clear what % of that population would leave/be forced to leave, which effects the speed of the transition to unionist majority.
The relative states of uk / irish economy will also factor in there. Uk trading recession might well take Ireland down too/worse.

But from a party politics cynical view, NI has no mp seats for main parties and is hugely expensive as a highly policed, very poor, badly connected ex-industry port. Every civil system from pensions to driving licences have been seperate from mainland systems for decades to allow easy transfer.

[mr friendly guy]

Just because I got interested, I had a look at the betting odds that the UK will leave by october 31st.

No gets 1.22, while Yes gets 5.3, indicating that the bookies believe a delay is likely. Given the parliament making a law that the UK can't Brexit without a deal, then I can see why the bookies believe this song and dance is going to continue.

[wautd]

All this chaos and mess, because of a stupid referendum with a tiny majority, and stubborn populist politicians.
I hope it was worth it

[His Divine Shadow]

Well the referendum and result are the symptom though, not the cause. The chaos and mess is because of the chosen economic policy that is disadvantageous to many. But we have no time machine. The only way to destroy populism is, to really, really simplify it, wealth transfer from the richest to the poorest.

[LaCroix]

WOW...

Boris is really an idiot, isn't he? Removing the backstop as an option if they can't get a better idaea within the next years, and instead making it a permanent fixture for NI, and creating a border between NI and Britain. While he himself has been preaching against such blatant destruction of the Union, himself.

No wonder the EU immediately accepted his proposal - he gave them a better deal than May did, essentially making NI a colony of the EU.

Seems his handlers REALLY want him to get them out before these anti-tax evasion laws are getting enforced come January...

[mr friendly guy]

https://www.google.com.au/search?client ... 8&oe=UTF-8

The European Union has agreed in principle to grant the United Kingdom a “flextension” postponing Brexit until January 31, 2020.

European Council president Donald Tusk made the announcement on Twitter just 90 hours before Britain was due to crash out of the EU.

The “flextension” means Britain could leave the EU earlier if its fractious parliament can pass Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s divorce bill ahead of the new deadline.

I wonder how Brexiters and Remainers will perceive it? Is it the first step to subvert democracy / remain in the EU?

[Lost Soal]

Boris want's an election because I think he honestly believes he'll win enough votes to just pass the deal.
The opposition say they'll only grant it if No Deal is ruled out and the only way you could do that would be to pass a law saying either that current deal is agreed and passed automatically at a certain date if nothing changes or article 50 is revoked if nothing is agreed. Since neither of those two will happen there is going to be another three months of posturing and bullshit.

[LaCroix]

And what a great deal it is, Boris only agreed to give away 7bn Sterling to the EU to get it, and to put a border right through the UK

That's really gonna teach the rest of the world... how desperate Boris is for any kind of deal... He'll sell the crown jewels if need be, just to get any deal he can get.

At a minimum, you can kiss the NHS goodbye, but that was a given outcome of the Conservatives being in chargefor a longer period of time, it's just going to be sold off in a trade deal instead of being slowly starved into collapse.

[SpottedKitty]

At a minimum, you can kiss the NHS goodbye, but that was a given outcome of the Conservatives being in chargefor a longer period of time, it's just going to be sold off in a trade deal instead of being slowly starved into collapse.

You sure? If Boris tries that, it'll be torches and pitchforks time. We like our NHS here; think back to the opening ceremony of the 2012 Olympics (one of the bits IIRC the US commentators just didn't get).