SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

[The Romulan Republic]

Warren passes Biden in major Iowa poll for the first time:

https://nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/ ... 9627973538

The Massachusetts senator rocketed to the top of a new Iowa poll and is now in a statistical dead heat with former Vice President Joe Biden. It was a big weekend for 2020 candidates in Iowa, with 17 of them on hand at the annual steak fry.

This ain't 2016. The Centrist favorite does not have a lock on the nomination, does not have staying power, and Warren will most likely be our nominee.

[His Divine Shadow]

I'm following the USpol stuff elsewhere and Warren doesn't really make me much more hopeful than a Biden run.

[The Romulan Republic]

I'm following the USpol stuff elsewhere and Warren doesn't really make me much more hopeful than a Biden run.

Why? There's no such thing as a perfect nominee, but Warren's policies are decisively better than Biden's on many issues, and she has no illusions that we can simply get rid of Trump and return to the pre-Trump status quo, as Biden seems to.

[His Divine Shadow]

It ain't Biden she gotta compete with, it's Bernie. And she doesn't got "it", she doesn't have the thing you need to win, the spark that makes people believe. She's gonna be Hillary of 2020 if she gets the nomination. Both her and Bidens main appeal are "ain't Trump" and that's not enough.

This example of how she handled the issue of a national rent control is pretty exemplary. Not a good look, not something that will get downtrodden people off the couch to vote for her.
https://twitter.com/briebriejoy/status/ ... 5600195590

And there's stuff like this on big money funding. I am reminded of that Steve Buscemi meme "how do you do fellow kids" except instead of kids it's leftists.
https://jacobinmag.com/2019/09/elizabet ... rate-money

She doesn't have what it takes to win and I suspect after she loses to Trump I'll be hearing how she does infact have it but because of dastardly X she didn't win, but she woulda if only Y hadn't Z. That's how it's gonna go.

[The Romulan Republic]

It ain't Biden she gotta compete with, it's Bernie. And she doesn't got "it", she doesn't have the thing you need to win, the spark that makes people believe. She's gonna be Hillary of 2020 if she gets the nomination. Both her and Bidens main appeal are "ain't Trump" and that's not enough.

Personally, though I supported Sanders in the 2016 primary, I believe that reform in America is bigger than one man.

Here are the facts: Warren is different from Hillary in personality, image/reputation, and policy, and the circumstances are different from 2016 too, without the sharp, bitter divide between Bernie and a Centrist "Chosen One". Part of the reason for Warren's success is that she has actually outflanked Bernie to the Left on multiple major issues, including immigration and impeachment. And every Democratic candidate has distinct policy differences between them and Trump. Saying that they're just running on "ain't Trump", like saying that everyone who isn't Bernie is just as bad, is a trite, lazy oversimplification meant to disguise your lack of actual arguments.

The notion that Warren will inevitably be "another Hillary", with no specific reason given other than that she's not Bernie, gives the impression that either you divide the entire world into "Bernie Sanders and Everybody Else" (which isn't actually a criticism of Warren- literally nothing she could do would satisfy you, because she's not Bernie), or else that you are a misogynist making that equivalency based on Warren's gender, or both. You are trying to force Warren's campaign into your 2016 Mk II narrative even though it really doesn't fit. Which begs the question of why you would want to push a rehash of that cluster fuck. I mean, I guess if you want Trump to win so that you can whine about how its all because the Establishment rigged it against Bernie, but that's a pretty fucking petty motivation.

You're also echoing the Bernie or Bust crowd's habit of ignoring Sanders' actual positions, instead hijacking him as a symbol for your Burn It All agenda. Sanders has no animosity toward Warren, and has gone out of his way to avoid a personal clash between them or their campaigns, because he also recognizes that progressive reform is bigger than one man, and that no one but Trump and the Republicans (and Putin) will benefit from infighting between progressives.

This example of how she handled the issue of a national rent control is pretty exemplary. Not a good look, not something that will get downtrodden people off the couch to vote for her.
https://twitter.com/briebriejoy/status/ ... 5600195590

And there's stuff like this on big money funding. I am reminded of that Steve Buscemi meme "how do you do fellow kids" except instead of kids it's leftists.
https://jacobinmag.com/2019/09/elizabet ... rate-money

I mean, yeah, Marxist-leaning outlets like Jacobinmag are going to hate Warren, because they tend to see anyone who's even slightly more moderate as indistinguishable from a fascist.

She doesn't have what it takes to win and I suspect after she loses to Trump I'll be hearing how she does infact have it but because of dastardly X she didn't win, but she woulda if only Y hadn't Z. That's how it's gonna go.

That's impossible to predict because, again, 2020 isn't a carbon-copy of 2016, however desperately you try to force it into that narrative so you can reuse the anti-Hillary arguments on Warren.

Oh, and nice gratuitous nod to Collusion Denial, too. Nice reminder that the Bernie-or-Busters are willing to ally with Trump on that subject as well, so that they can maintain their narrative that the sole reason Hillary lost was because she wasn't Bernie.

Hillary lost (while winning the popular vote) for a lot of reasons, and if any one of those factors had been different, so might the end result have been. That's fact. But like most extremists and cultists, you evidently prefer ideologically-compatible over-simplifications to facts.

[The Romulan Republic]

Its funny- Sanders' actual actions are consistently at odds with those of the Bernie-or-Busters. Because Sanders is actually a rational man who wants to achieve real reforms, not just destroy America for the sake of spiting the Democratic Establishment, and therefore is actually willing to work with other people to get things done.

[The Romulan Republic]

Edit: Another difference between Warren and Clinton/Biden, and a case where Warren is much more like Bernie, is that while Clinton/Biden ran/are running very half-assed, low-energy campaigns focussed on courting big donors behind the scenes rather than going out and engaging with voters, Warren (like Bernie) has an excellent ground game. She has strong organization, actually goes out and engages with voters, and its paying off.

[His Divine Shadow]

Yeah whatever I've said my piece on the matter, enjoy the show.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah whatever I've said my piece on the matter, enjoy the show.

I'll happily take that as a concession that your position is indefensible.

Prefer whichever candidate you like. But now is not 2016, Warren is not Hillary or Biden, and those are just facts.

[His Divine Shadow]

You can take it as you like, you asked me why and I answered why, that's good enough for me. I'll just keep on doing my thing (post articles and tidbits) and you can scream concession accepted into the void, deal, good.

[The Romulan Republic]

Latest Monmouth poll puts Warren two points ahead of Gropin' Joe in New Hampshire. At present, the only two candidates polling above the 15% threshold to get any delegates are Warren and Biden, with Bernie at 12 and Buttigieg at 10.

At this point, I expect she wins all three of the first three states (though Biden and possibly Bernie and Buttigieg get some delegates). Gropin' Joe takes South Carolina. Warren and Biden split Super Tuesday between them (he dominates the South, she dominates just about everywhere else), and everyone else is effectively knocked out after the first few races (though if Bernie stays in to the finish, he may net a few more delegates from certain states and win at least Vermont, and Harris and O'Rourke might pull in some from California and Texas respectively). But unless something suddenly causes Warren to plummet unexpectedly, its a two-person race now.

[FaxModem1]

Reminder that the three major candidates numbers are going to look different when the smaller candidates start dropping out. Any one of them could get a serious boost as others disappear from the race.

[The Romulan Republic]

Reminder that the three major candidates numbers are going to look different when the smaller candidates start dropping out. Any one of them could get a serious boost as others disappear from the race.

True. I expect if Bernie stays in until the smaller fish fold, he'll pick up some of their votes. But so will Warren (and Biden will likely net a few from the likes of Bullock and other more Centrist candidates).

[Darth Yan]

The issue is that if Bernie or Warren win will the centrists swallow their pride and vote for them? I've met at least one who said she'll sit out if Bernie wins basically out of spite

[The Romulan Republic]

The issue is that if Bernie or Warren win will the centrists swallow their pride and vote for them? I've met at least one who said she'll sit out if Bernie wins basically out of spite

Unfortunately, that cuts both ways, at least with Bernie. If he wins, there are Clinton people who hold grudges over 2016 who will sit it out. If he doesn't, there are Bernie or Busters who will sit it out (or vote Green/Libertarian/Write-in/Trump). I consider both groups pathetic traitors more interested in rehashing a four year old primary fight than stopping the rise of American fascism and the destruction of the world from climate change.

I think its less of an issue for Warren, though there are some hard core Bernie or Busters who will hate her for the crime of not being Bernie (or for not endorsing him in 2016- there's a narrative in the Bernie camp that they would have won if only Warren had endorsed Sanders).

[His Divine Shadow]

Bernie busting was shown to not exist as most Bernie supporters moved on to support Clinton in the same amounts as any other group of voters.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/ ... eared.html

Hardcore Bernie supporters are not the demographic Warren needs to target if she gets the nomination, nor was it the case for Hillary. Even I if I could would vote Warren over Trump, but none of us are the key demographic, it's the people who don't usually vote.

This bernie or bust talk is perhaps the best way though to rile people up and make more people actually act like that. I think republicans will definitely try it.

[The Romulan Republic]

Bernie busting was shown to not exist as most Bernie supporters moved on to support Clinton in the same amounts as any other group of voters.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/ ... eared.html

Hardcore Bernie supporters are not the demographic Warren needs to target if she gets the nomination, nor was it the case for Hillary. Even I if I could would vote Warren over Trump, but none of us are the key demographic, it's the people who don't usually vote.

This bernie or bust talk is perhaps the best way though to rile people up and make more people actually act like that. I think republicans will definitely try it.

The number of Bernie supporters who failed to back Clinton was a relatively small percent, I'm aware. I've made that point repeatedly myself. But it was enough to probably tip key states in a close election.

Of course, the Republicans and Kremlin will use anything and everything to sow divisions. They'll try to paint Sanders supporters as radicals and bigots to piss off Clinton supporters, and they'll try to portray Centrists as corrupt to piss off progressives. Divide and conquer is one of their favorite tactics.

[TimothyC]

Well, Sen. Sanders is off the campaign trail for a while:

Bernie Sanders experienced chest discomfort during a campaign event on Tuesday and had two stents inserted to address a blockage in an artery, his campaign announced.

“Sen. Sanders is conversing and in good spirits. He will be resting up over the next few days," senior adviser Jeff Weaver said in a statement. "We are canceling his events and appearances until further notice, and we will continue to provide appropriate updates.”

Sander has maintained a relentless campaign schedule over the past several months. The 78-year-old senator is the oldest candidate in the Democratic field, but has projected vigor belying his age.

Story Continued Below

The news comes a day after Sanders posted a robust $25 million fundraising haul in the third quarter of the year, but as he's been eclipsed in recent weeks by Elizabeth Warren in the polls.

Advertising Analytics, an ad tracking firm, confirmed to POLITICO that the Sanders campaign canceled the entirety of its recently scheduled ad buy in Iowa on broadcast television. The Sanders campaign had announced a $1.3 million ad buy on Monday in the state, and it was set to begin on Thursday.

California Sen. Kamala Harris, one of Sanders' competitors in the Democratic presidential primary, was quick to chime in online with a message of support for her Vermont colleague.

"Thinking of @BernieSanders today and wishing him a speedy recovery," she tweeted. "If there's one thing I know about him, he's a fighter and I look forward to seeing him on the campaign trail soon."

[The Romulan Republic]

Sadly, this'll probably finish his campaign. It sucks, but an extended period away from the campaign trail as we get close to the first primary contests, and one which will cast renewed doubts on his physical fitness to be President, is about the worst thing that could happen to a candidate.

Wishing him a full recovery and, if he cannot be President, that he can continue serving in the Senate. But if his health isn't up to getting back on the campaign trail soon, then frankly, and with all due respect to Senator Sanders, he should probably withdraw and put his strength behind another progressive (presumably Warren).

[Gandalf]

Indeed. It's a good opportunity for him to pass the proverbial torch to (presumably) Warren, without getting any major backlash.

[His Divine Shadow]

Bernie's up and about and will be there for the October debates says his wife.

Poll from Ohio shows him in 2nd place
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/sta ... 9675555840

[The Romulan Republic]

If he can pull it off, good for him.

I'd still rather see progressives united behind a single ticket, and I don't think that ticket is going to end up being Bernie, but if he has it in him to fight it out right to the convention, that is his right to try.

[His Divine Shadow]

A video showing the biased MSM reporting on Bernie vs the real deal.

https://twitter.com/shaunking/status/11 ... 7906027525

[Elfdart]

A video showing the biased MSM reporting on Bernie vs the real deal.

https://twitter.com/shaunking/status/11 ... 7906027525

That was very well made but unfortunately, the media hacks who piss on Bernie every chance they get are stupid and shameless. So even if they watch the video, they'll carry on as usual. Who needs self-reflection when they can just squeal about "Bernie Bros"?

[His Divine Shadow]

Stuff that puts Bernie in a class of his own
https://www.vox.com/2019/6/25/18715627/ ... raids-2020

And this
https://eu.freep.com/story/news/politic ... 852000001/