The SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 coronavirus

[Jub]

So most of China is probably closer to the global average, but in the event of a full pandemic, we can expect Hubei province-like death rates as hospitals get overwhelmed?

1) What do you even mean by a 'full pandemic'?

2) It seems unlikely that this particular coronavirus could spread quickly enough to cause wide spread epidemics before better screening and treatment options lessen the strain on medical facilities and make this disease almost completely non-threatening.

Whilst I understand that this disease has killed hundreds of people and that a lot of medical professionals are working very hard to stamp out this disease I can't help but quote South Park and say that 'I have SARS There's only a ninety eighty percent chance that I will live' in response to the panic about this disease.

[The Romulan Republic]

So most of China is probably closer to the global average, but in the event of a full pandemic, we can expect Hubei province-like death rates as hospitals get overwhelmed?

1) What do you even mean by a 'full pandemic'?

An actual pandemic, as opposed to the situation now, where we're worried it might become one.

2) It seems unlikely that this particular coronavirus could spread quickly enough to cause wide spread epidemics before better screening and treatment options lessen the strain on medical facilities and make this disease almost completely non-threatening.

Whilst I understand that this disease has killed hundreds of people and that a lot of medical professionals are working very hard to stamp out this disease I can't help but quote South Park and say that 'I have SARS There's only a ninety eighty percent chance that I will live' in response to the panic about this disease.

Hopefully, yeah. But see the WHO warning I posted above.

[Jub]

An actual pandemic, as opposed to the situation now, where we're worried it might become one.

Seems like it would have been easier to say that the first time.

Hopefully, yeah. But see the WHO warning I posted above.

It would be odd if the WHO didn't give that type of warning about any new disease which spreads. That doesn't mean that such an outcome is likely, only that it's possible.

You need to spend less of your time worrying about the worst case in everything from entertainment, to disease, to politics and learn to relax a little.

[Ralin]

Just going to point out, the people I've personally heard from (admittedly a limited pool and heavily weighted towards expats) living here in China are much more worried about not getting paid for a month or more than they are about getting sick.

[mr friendly guy]

For those worried about a pandemic, I give you the 2009 swine flu.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

Anyone remember the panic back then? Remember when Obama declared it an emergency within a few days of being identified like China did. Oh wait, no he waited months and I don't believe there was a panic. I remember working as a medical registrar and we threatened to strike unless Australia banned American tourists from coming into Australia, oh wait, no we didn't, that was Hong Kong doctors with Mainlanders. We just got on with the job, tested people with influenza like illness for H1N1 and got on with the job.

What I am trying to get at, is not that covid 19 is not a problem, but that our fears have been magnified by the media. Consider how the media reported H1N1 and how its reporting covid 19, you get the picture. Australian media for example, has been pretty shit in this regard. I am going to say this again. The average number of daily deaths from this is less than the amount of daily deaths in the US from opiod overdoses and less than the amount which die from flu each year.

[Broomstick]

So most of China is probably closer to the global average, but in the event of a full pandemic, we can expect Hubei province-like death rates as hospitals get overwhelmed?

Yes.

Wherever it gets bad enough for the local medical system to become overwhelmed the death rates will go up.

Efforts to slow the spread of covid, even if not effective in stopping it, are worthwhile as a tactic to avoid overwhelming the local medical system.

[Broomstick]

It seems unlikely that this particular coronavirus could spread quickly enough to cause wide spread epidemics before better screening and treatment options lessen the strain on medical facilities and make this disease almost completely non-threatening.

Wow. What confidence.

Sure, the screening could become better. Particularly with better training and greater experience of screeners. But there is NO guarantee there will be better treatment before this disease runs its course.

Whilst I understand that this disease has killed hundreds of people and that a lot of medical professionals are working very hard to stamp out this disease I can't help but quote South Park and say that 'I have SARS There's only a ninety eighty percent chance that I will live' in response to the panic about this disease.

Please try to keep up. The death toll is in the thousands. You're off an order of magnitude.

And, as I keep saying, for most people the biggest impact will not be getting sick, it will be the economic fallout. Loss of wages, loss of jobs.

[Ralin]

Isn't the concern as much about trying to stop this particular coronavirus from becoming a yearly recurring thing like flu season as it is about avoiding deaths in the near-term?

[Jub]

Wow. What confidence.

Sure, the screening could become better. Particularly with better training and greater experience of screeners. But there is NO guarantee there will be better treatment before this disease runs its course.

We have real-time data tracking this disease. It's not a threat to reach Hubei levels of infection anywhere at this stage, let alone in enough places to do more than temporarily overwhelm medical responses.

Please try to keep up. The death toll is in the thousands. You're off an order of magnitude.

Oh heavens, it's killed about as many people in a month as die daily in traffic accidents. I'm so very fearful for the fate of the world.

And, as I keep saying, for most people the biggest impact will not be getting sick, it will be the economic fallout. Loss of wages, loss of jobs.

I just love how the world economy collapses every year during flu season...

[AniThyng]

I'd think the PRC of all governments wouldn't have went all out to contain it at severe cost if it was merely because of numbers that look trivial next to traffic accidents in China of all places. There's more to it than that.

[mr friendly guy]

I'd think the PRC of all governments wouldn't have went all out to contain it at severe cost if it was merely because of numbers that look trivial next to traffic accidents in China of all places. There's more to it than that.

The numbers Jub is referring to are after China went "all out" to contain it. If they didn't the numbers will be much worse.

[Jub]

I'd think the PRC of all governments wouldn't have went all out to contain it at severe cost if it was merely because of numbers that look trivial next to traffic accidents in China of all places. There's more to it than that.

The numbers Jub is referring to are after China went "all out" to contain it. If they didn't the numbers will be much worse.

I'd think the PRC of all governments wouldn't have went all out to contain it at severe cost if it was merely because of numbers that look trivial next to traffic accidents in China of all places. There's more to it than that.

I acknowledged that work in my first post in the thread.

My exaggerated flippancy is more due to the stupid levels of over-reaction many people are having to this disease. Examples being literally stealing masks from hospitals or shipping masks into Vancouver labelled as toys.

[Broomstick]

Wow. What confidence.

Sure, the screening could become better. Particularly with better training and greater experience of screeners. But there is NO guarantee there will be better treatment before this disease runs its course.

We have real-time data tracking this disease. It's not a threat to reach Hubei levels of infection anywhere at this stage, let alone in enough places to do more than temporarily overwhelm medical responses.

Not today, no.

But if no one considers that it might get that bad then the actions required to prevent such a pandemic won't be taken.

Please try to keep up. The death toll is in the thousands. You're off an order of magnitude.

Oh heavens, it's killed about as many people in a month as die daily in traffic accidents. I'm so very fearful for the fate of the world.

Last February it had killed no one at all.

I'd have a LOT more confidence in your assessment if, as I said, you weren't off an order of magnitude regarding how many have died. That's either dimishing the seriousness of the situation or ignorance, niether of which inspires trust.

And, as I keep saying, for most people the biggest impact will not be getting sick, it will be the economic fallout. Loss of wages, loss of jobs.

I just love how the world economy collapses every year during flu season...

We don't quarantine entire cities, shut down airlines, close international borders, and such like during the flu season. That's why this situation is different.

[Broomstick]

Isn't the concern as much about trying to stop this particular coronavirus from becoming a yearly recurring thing like flu season as it is about avoiding deaths in the near-term?

The major concern right now is preventing a global pandemic (which effort is not going perfectly). The virus running rampant among new hosts, even with a 1-2% death rate, will result in somewhere between 45 and over 100 million deaths (depending on whose figures you follow). That's on top of all the "normal" deaths that society already copes with, which apparently number 50-60 million people a year (again, numbers vary depending on who you ask). So potentially this could double the annual death toll for the planet. Or more. It might. That doesn't mean it has to, but those accusing people concerned about this virus of being hysterical or over-reacting are burying their heads in the sand. Being concerned and contemplating possible outcomes is not panic or fear-mongering, it's being prudent.

That said, yes, there ARE some frightened people out there doing bad shit like stealing masks from hospitals or otherwise engaged in panic moves. But they are a small minority (at this point). Any competent response to this threat will have to take into account that sort of human behavior.

In contrast, there are another group who keep grousing that it's all over-reaction. If we don't get a global pandemic they'll complain it was all an over-reaction of hysterical ninnies, ignoring all the efforts that went into to keeping it a regional problem rather than everyone's problem.

If it DOES go pandemic after the initial global sweep it will become an annual thing, like the colds (many of which are also coronaviruses) and flu we deal with every year, but because, after a pandemic, so many people will have had this and recovered (because the vast majority do recover) that it will become a relatively rare illness for that specific virus and blend into the background of other seasonal infections. Yes, it will still be more serious than some other coronavirus infections, but there will be fewer people to act as hosts (with so many recovered and presumably immune) so it would not produce concentrated centers of illness, it won't be able to travel as easily, and so forth.

[FireNexus]

I just love how the world economy collapses every year during flu season...

The death rate of this virus, from best available information, is 20 times seasonal flu. Estimates range the actual from 10-20 times. It will only be as good as an order of magnitude worse than seasonal flu if there are twice as many cases as we know about.

This is worse than flu. It’s not end of the world bad, but ten times as bad as seasonal flu will be a major impact. The panic at avoiding it will be even more economically damaging. Collapse? Nah. Major economic impact? Definitely.

[madd0ct0r]

Wales is crushing it..

As of Thursday 20 February, 209 people in Wales have been tested for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), and all received negative results.

“Nearly 95 per cent of the individuals who have been tested in Wales have been offered testing in their own home, making it as convenient as possible for them, as well as protecting our ambulance and hospital resources for those who need it most. We are not able to comment on individual cases for reasons of patient confidentiality.

[Broomstick]

This is the current map of nations affected, as reported by the CDC:



Clearly, this is spreading. Of course, for quite a few of those nations there are only one or a few cases, this is not actually a pandemic, but more and more it is looking like this virus will not be fully contained. Prepare for pandemic.

But... DON'T PANIC

It will not be the end of civilization. It may get plenty uncomfortable for awhile, though.

[FireNexus]

This is the current map of nations affected, as reported by the CDC:



Clearly, this is spreading. Of course, for quite a few of those nations there are only one or a few cases, this is not actually a pandemic, but more and more it is looking like this virus will not be fully contained. Prepare for pandemic.

But... DON'T PANIC

It will not be the end of civilization. It may get plenty uncomfortable for awhile, though.

I’d be seriously fucking nervous if I were 65+ right now.

[Tribble]

This is the current map of nations affected, as reported by the CDC:



Clearly, this is spreading. Of course, for quite a few of those nations there are only one or a few cases, this is not actually a pandemic, but more and more it is looking like this virus will not be fully contained. Prepare for pandemic.

But... DON'T PANIC

It will not be the end of civilization. It may get plenty uncomfortable for awhile, though.

Why are the northern areas of Canada grey? I doubt there are cases in Yellowknife and White Horse, though they are still blue. And Alaska, which is after all a part of the US? Was there a Northern exit I wasn’t aware of?

[Broomstick]

I don't know. Why isn't Northern Ireland grey, it's part of the UK, right?

Obviously, the map is not 100% accurate. Probably posted late yesterday and does not have today's updates available.

[J]

Why are the northern areas of Canada grey? I doubt there are cases in Yellowknife and White Horse, though they are still blue. And Alaska, which is after all a part of the US? Was there a Northern exit I wasn’t aware of?

Nobody expects the Danish annexation.

[MKSheppard]

This comes across as being rather racist to me.

You know what's funny? You didn't read the article I posted with it.

The meme is basically the article condensed into a lolcats format that can be grasped in moments.

Basically, in tl;dr format:

A senior exec at a brokerage, his wife and daughter escaped from Wuhan one day before it was placed into enforced quarantine/lockdown. They arrived in HK on 22 Jan.

The daughter who had a degree in biology helped her parents check into at least two hotels, despite her parents showing coughing, fever and other symptoms.

They then proceeded to walk all over Hong Kong for almost a WEEK; into busy shopping malls, before hotel personnel saw the parents coughing and alerted the authorities and they were placed into confinement on 28 Jan.

We even have in this thread, semi proof of the meme:

Otherwise I might troll people by pretending to cough at these fuckers. Because I can.

[mr friendly guy]

We even have in this thread, semi proof of the meme:

Otherwise I might troll people by pretending to cough at these fuckers. Because I can.

You misunderstood the point of my post. If someone is going to be a racist dick to me because I am Asian, I am going to be a dick right back at them. It has nothing to do with spreading the virus, since you know, I am a doctor and know well enough to isolate myself as per Australian protocols advising people who are at risk to isolate themselves for 14 days.

Moreover, if you're going to argue one family breaking China's quarantine is proof of Chinese having a tendency to spread the disease in defiance of all the other steps China has done to contain it, then I suggest you look at the United States handling of H1N1, and apply the same standards. H1N1 is now spread worldwide, Obama declared it an emergency months after it was first foudn etc. Can I use a stereotype of Western explorers spreading viruses to the natives to describe the US handling of H1N1? And if you think its not appropriate to apply the standard to Americans, then the same standard should apply to China.

[MKSheppard]

We have real-time data tracking this disease. It's not a threat to reach Hubei levels of infection anywhere at this stage, let alone in enough places to do more than temporarily overwhelm medical responses.

You haven't been following Windy.com?

Basically, massive amounts of organic matter are being burned near Wuhan. At scales and quantities approaching the ex-Soviet Nickel Smelter at Norilsk, which is the most polluted place on earth, according to NASA satellite data on SO2 emissions.

[Ralin]

You misunderstood the point of my post. If someone is going to be a racist dick to me because I am Asian, I am going to be a dick right back at them. It has nothing to do with spreading the virus, since you know, I am a doctor and know well enough to isolate myself as per Australian protocols advising people who are at risk to isolate themselves for 14 days.

p. sure he also knows Wong suggested the exact same thing on Facebook not long ago.