The SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 coronavirus

[mr friendly guy]

I don't think either dictatorship or democracy has a monopoly on effective action in a crisis, or on incompetence.

I agree with this point. There is no reason why a democracy can't also act as efficient as China has. However if someone is going to make the claim that China is slow as per your own article, and implies its due to its system of government, then it behooves them to provide evidence. When we compare to how a democratic government responds, and we find China has responded to this crisis faster than the US did with H1N1, then there is a problem with the author's reasoning. Combine that when the author thinks under Xi, its worse than the Great Leap forward, then it becomes clear the author starts off with the assumption whatever China does is bad, and its just a matter of cherry picking evidence to support that conclusion.

[aerius]

Italy, Iran, and South Korea look like they're going exponential. Everyone else seems to be fairly steady or contained for now.
Iran's the one that worries me since they have a way higher death rate than everyone else.

[Ralin]

This may be a stupid question, but why Iran of all places? They don't get an especially large amount of traffic to and from China far as I know. Their population is fairly spread out from what I understand. I've never heard that their healthcare system is particularly bad. Is it just a combination of bad luck and someone in authority dropping the ball?

[The Romulan Republic]

Worst President, in a move that should surprise no one, declares the the Democrats' criticisms of his response a hoax, and blames Coronavirus on immigration:

https://theguardian.com/us-news/2020/fe ... n-at-rally

Donald Trump attempted to link the coronavirus outbreak to Democratic immigration policies, labeling Democratic attacks on his handling of the crisis a “new hoax” in a rambling speech in South Carolina, the night before the state’s crucial Democratic primary.

In a packed rally in North Charleston, Trump defended his administration’s handling of the outbreak. He accused the Democrats of “politicizing the coronavirus”, calling it “their new hoax” after the Russian investigation and impeachment.

“We are doing everything in our power to keep the infection and those carrying the infection from entering the country. We have no choice,” Trump said at the Coliseum and Performing Arts Center. “Whether it’s the virus that we’re talking about, or the many other public health threats, the Democrat policy of open borders is a direct threat to the health and wellbeing of all Americans.”

Trump says coronavirus spread not ‘inevitable' – video
Trump cited no evidence to link the virus with migration at the southern border, where he has focused much of his anti-immigration policy. The first case of coronavirus in the US with no known origin was diagnosed in northern California on Wednesday night, hundreds of miles from the border. Additional such cases in California and Oregon were confirmed on Friday.

Trump’s comments come as his administration moved to establish a point person to coordinate the country’s response to the outbreak. On Wednesday, Trump said vice-president Mike Pence would lead the administration’s response. Later, Pence said he had picked Dr Deborah L Birx, who runs the country’s efforts to fight HIV and Aids, to lead the response to the coronavirus. Alex Azar, the Health and Human Services Secretary, is also taking a leading role.

The administration has faced significant criticism for its handling of coronavirus, as Democrats point to cuts at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) under Trump’s leadership. On Friday, the CDC said it was working to distribute new testing kits, after the first batch turned out to be faulty.

At other moments during his speech, Trump digressed to rattle off insults at the Democratic candidates running for president.

He mocked the former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg.

“He wished he’d never started. He wished he’d never started. He said ‘Well, Trump can do it, I’m going to do it too.’ Was that the worst debate performance in history?” Trump said.

He attacked billionaire Tom Steyer for spending millions on his own presidential campaign.

“But this guy Steyer, he spends all this money. He spends all this money. He’s not that wealthy,” Trump said, urging the crowd to tell him which candidate would be easiest for him to beat.

Between diatribes about his possible presidential opponents, Trump bragged about the unemployment rate in South Carolina and nationally, hailing a low jobless rate among African Americans.

Trump’s re-election campaign has made outreach to black voters a key pillar of its strategy. In his speech, Trump attacked Democrats’ record on race, saying they had “betrayed African Americans”: “They forced their children into failing schools. They shipped their jobs to foreign countries. They pushed their unfair sentencing policies, you know about that … and they favoured illegal aliens over their own constituents, you know that,” Trump said.

He claimed his own administration was reversing such “failed policies”: “We’re going to compete for every single vote in 2020 and we expect to win a historic share of the black vote come election day.”

Well, if there was any doubt, I guess we know which dictator wins "worst response" now. There is a certain bitter irony in the fact that this means his followers will probably suffer the highest death rates, as they refuse to take proper precautions because public safety is a Deep State plot against the Dear Leader. Natural Selection in action, I suppose.

The fact that I dearly want to see that fucker convicted for his crimes is the only thing that's keeping me from wishing him a swift and karmic death by coronavirus.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well this is fun:

https://qz.com/1810508/covid-19-can-lik ... our-phone/

Most cases of Covid-19 are mild—but it travels quickly. Luckily, the best way to prevent spreading it is pretty simple: Keep good hygiene. Scrub your hands for at least 20 seconds frequently, cover your nose and mouth when you cough, and try to avoid contact with others you know are sick.

These techniques work because tiny droplets from coughing and sneezing can carry the novel coronavirus as far as three to six feet (or one to two meters). If they happen to make it into another person’s airways, they could become infected.

But the virus can also likely live on the surfaces these droplets touch, sometimes for multiple days, says Rudra Channappanavar, an immunologist who has studied coronaviruses at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center. Glass in particular—like the kind on screen of the smartphone you’re probably reading this on—can harbor live coronaviruses for up to 96 hours, or four days at room temperature.

These estimates come from data collected during the 2003 SARS outbreak and reported to the World Health Organization. The two viruses are genetic cousins: Both infect our airways, have a single strand of genetic material, called RNA, and have proteins protruding from their shells. The virus behind the SARS outbreak is technically named SARS-CoV; the new virus is SARS-CoV-2.

In theory, it’d be pretty easy to pick up the novel coronavirus from your phone screen. If someone coughed or sneezed near your phone on your morning commute while you were scrolling through social media, you could inadvertently touch that droplet and then touch your nose or mouth.

Most people touch their phones and faces a lot: One study conducted by the research firm Dscout found that, in a group of 94, the average person picked up their phone 2,600 times per day. They also spent extended time on it (scrolling, checking emails) 76 times per day. Another small study from researchers at the University of New South Wales in Australia found that people touch their face about 23 times per hour, or 368 times during their waking hours. This study only tracked 26 college students, but still: It’s a pretty common habit most of us do without thinking.

Gross phone screens and other surfaces are nothing new. We’re constantly exposed to viruses and bacteria on everything—and for the most part they don’t make us sick. But it’s worth remembering where these pesky microbes can live, particularly in times when infections are common. Channappanavar says that if there’s ever a time when you pick up an infection like Covid-19 without any known exposure to it, it’s likely that you got it from one of these surfaces.

Thankfully, there’s an easy solution: Clean the surfaces around you. Apple recommends cleaning phone surfaces with a microfiber cloth slightly damp with soapy water. You can also use face wipes or baby wipes, or a solution of half water and half rubbing alcohol—just avoid any openings. UV lights will also kill most viruses bacteria on surfaces, but those cost about $60.

If you’re still worried, remember: It can’t hurt to wash your hands more, and touch your face less.

[Broomstick]

Yet we are inundated with articles about how China was "too slow,", and too slow to boot because its not a democracy, and now its spread to the whole world, and not once have these people considered how poorly the US has reacted, and not once have these people gave a shit how H1N1 is now part of the diseases we now deal with during the winter.

Funny - because since the beginning of this month I've seen plenty of articles about how only an authoritarian government could act as strongly and swiftly as China did.

Not from what TRR posted. Nor from the linked articles in those Guardian articles either.

Well, it may very well be that I am reading different sources than TRR or the Gaurdian

It would not surprise me if some of the praise of authoritarian government in this instance is coming from people who would like to have an authoritarian government in power (they are, of course, assuming they'd be in good standing or even powerful within such a government, an assumption I think is exactly that - an assumption on their part which might or might not reflect reality).

Even so...

I don't think either dictatorship or democracy has a monopoly on effective action in a crisis, or on incompetence. Speaking generally, not just with regard to this specific situation, dictatorship can allow for more extreme actions to be taken more swiftly, but it also can make it more difficult and dangerous for dissenting voices to be heard or mistakes to be corrected, and is more likely to exploit a crisis to target its political enemies.

Yes, exactly. I am concerned, for instance, that the current administration in my country is planning to use this crisis for political advantage and we're still supposedly a democracy. Even more so in actual authoritarian regimes.

[The Romulan Republic]

I'd be hesitant to call America now a democracy, to say the least. At best, its in a transitory state between a semi-democratic republic and an authoritarian kleptocracy a la Russia under Putin. But that's an argument for another thread, I think.

[Broomstick]

Italy, Iran, and South Korea look like they're going exponential. Everyone else seems to be fairly steady or contained for now.
Iran's the one that worries me since they have a way higher death rate than everyone else.

I'm starting to worry about California, now. Between the fact we've had our first community transmission cases there and Trump's predilection for cutting funds/services/help to areas he views as Democratic/immigrant bastions... well, not good. I think it likely that the US version of the epidemic is going to start there. As it is, we've got cases dotted around both the east and west coasts now, as well as a cluster in/near Chicago.

I think we'll see more places achieving exponential infection rates in about two weeks.

Africa has been quiet, but I think that's because there are problems with medical infrastructure, public health, and reporting - it's there, it's just not been officially recognized or noticed and probably won't be until it's far out of control.

[Broomstick]

I'd be hesitant to call America now a democracy, to say the least. At best, its in a transitory state between a semi-democratic republic and an authoritarian kleptocracy a la Russia under Putin. But that's an argument for another thread, I think.

Hence the term "supposedly".

Also, because an authoritarian government can make swift and aggressive actions that means it can also go in the wrong direction just as forcefully as the right one. We can argue out the details, but at a certain point China really did take effective measures to contain the virus, as shown by a drop in new cases. Whether or not those actions were the best, however you define that term, or the most effective possible, is for another debate, but they seemed to have drastically slowed it down within China.

On the other hand, you could get an authoritarian regime that deliberately suppresses information (or tries to - darn that social media!), or fails to take measures, or relies on praying for a miracle... none of which work well against a viral epidemic.

[Broomstick]

Italy, Iran, and South Korea look like they're going exponential. Everyone else seems to be fairly steady or contained for now.
Iran's the one that worries me since they have a way higher death rate than everyone else.

Italians seem to travel - Nigeria's outbreak has an Italian patient as patient zero. As he also passed through Istanbul on his way there expect to hear about an outbreak there in a week or two. So that might be down to the bad luck of having some Italians traveling through Hubei when the virus was spreading but before the lockdown.

South Korea's is pretty closely tied to a religious cult that had a habit of packing members into meetings like sardines as well as insisting members attend even when sick - their patient zero apparently left the hospital where she was being treated not once but twice to attend services. Which resulted in hundreds getting infected, and those people, not knowing what they had, then were out and about spreading the virus....

Iran.... well, Iran has some holy sites that pilgrimage destinations and indeed the first place they found the virus, the city of Qom, is also a sort of university town for Shi'a Islam so gets tourists and students from all over the world. Then, whatever containment measures they took were ineffective as first their health minister and now, apparently, the entire top level of government now has covid which means the response is going to be less than effective to say the least. Iran is also home to a number of large refugee camps which are great hunting grounds for viruses but less than wonderful from a public health/santitation/medical viewpoint. The death rate in Iran might be higher than elsewhere due to lack of medical capacity, lack of coordination of response, reporting issues, or conversely NO suppression of reporting, or over-reporting (attributing every pneumonia death to covid, for example, without actually testing to see if that's true), or probably other possible reasons. Once it gets loose in Middle Eastern refugee camps.... hoo, boy.

I suspect it's already loose in Africa AND going exponential but simply not being recognized or reported.

And while everyone else seems contained/steady for now I expect that will change in one to two weeks.

[Broomstick]

Worst President, in a move that should surprise no one, declares the the Democrats' criticisms of his response a hoax, and blames Coronavirus on immigration:

https://theguardian.com/us-news/2020/fe ... n-at-rally

....[snip]....

Well, if there was any doubt, I guess we know which dictator wins "worst response" now. There is a certain bitter irony in the fact that this means his followers will probably suffer the highest death rates, as they refuse to take proper precautions because public safety is a Deep State plot against the Dear Leader. Natural Selection in action, I suppose.

The fact that I dearly want to see that fucker convicted for his crimes is the only thing that's keeping me from wishing him a swift and karmic death by coronavirus.

I have this image of Trump trying to rally his base at a mass gathering, coughing and hacking even while declaring he has "the best health ever!", resulting in a massive outbreak among his followers who will then all be in quarantine and otherwise heavily impacted. It's evil, I know, but it's one of those intrusive thoughts that keep peeping round the corner, so to speak.

Absolutely if he thinks he can get traction he'll politically weaponize this shit.

[The Romulan Republic]

There's also speculation that he handed Pence the coronavirus assignment so that when it inevitably goes horribly bad, he has an excuse to replace Pence on the ticket. Don't know if I buy that, but its a thought.

[Broomstick]

I wouldn't put it past Trump to do that.

Pence is a toady, he's very much taken with the notion that the powerful are powerful because God put them in that position and following the leader is doing God's will. Wonder how he'll take it if Trump makes him the fall guy?

I do not for one moment think Pence is qualified to handle this situation. He's there to keep a lid on information and spin it to the administration's advantage.

[Mr Bean]

I wouldn't put it past Trump to do that.

Pence is a toady, he's very much taken with the notion that the powerful are powerful because God put them in that position and following the leader is doing God's will. Wonder how he'll take it if Trump makes him the fall guy?

I do not for one moment think Pence is qualified to handle this situation. He's there to keep a lid on information and spin it to the administration's advantage.

Which works right up until there's a massive US outbreak, it's odd we seem to be coping the Chinese method right down to information suppression and denying everything.

Further issue is of course the entire economy is likely to crater now since the entire supply chain is screwed up and while China claims to have things under control there's the small issue of re-infection and oh yes places like Italy, Iran and South Africa causing continent wide outbreaks since things are already out of control. In California we already have two community infections which the best guess is both came about as infections from the pure idiocy that was flying back The infected folks back with the healthy ones.

TL:DR when the Diamond Princess folks flew home some of the "healthy" folks were likely also sick (But asymptomatic) and probably infected some of the US government folks from Heath and Human Services who then likely infected others and now who knows where the healthy folks start and the sick begin until they track them down and re-test or we see a massive outbreak from there movements.

[MKSheppard]

Between the fact we've had our first community transmission cases there and Trump's predilection for cutting funds/services/help to areas he views as Democratic/immigrant bastions... well, not good.

We're all going to suffer because nobody, nobody had the balls to go look at China declaring a massive lockdown/quarantine in Wuhan on 22 January 2020; and then say:

Effective 23 January 2020

• All non-authorized commercial and private flights to and from china are halted.
• Anyone who has entered China over the last 30 days is quarantined for 30 days upon entry in CONUS.

It took until around early February for US flights to and from China to stop -- and it took the American Airlines' Pilots Union to sue for the halt of US-China flights to partially get that done.

It should have been followed by extension of the quarantine later that week to "Lunar New Year" countries in East Asia.

But no, we had to suffer from "lol racism" bullshit; when it's quantifiable that LNY is a massive movement of people, with lots of expats and family relations moving around globally.

[FaxModem1]

NPR

First Person Dies Of Coronavirus In U.S.
February 29, 20201:06 PM ET
Meg Anderson - 2019
MEG ANDERSON


President Trump speaks at the White House about the U.S. response to the spread of the novel coronavirus.
Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images
Updated at 2:43 p.m. ET

A person in Washington state infected with coronavirus has died, according to the Seattle and King County Department of Health. The fatality marks the first death associated with the virus in the United States.

Two patients with acute respiratory symptoms tested positive for the coronavirus Friday night at EvergreenHealth Medical Center in Kirkland, Washington, a suburb of Seattle. One of the patients has since died, and the other is in isolation. The state's health department has not confirmed details of the death, or whether the CDC confirmed the coronavirus screening test, but plans to announce more at a press conference Saturday afternoon.

The death comes after U.S. health officials have warned that coronavirus now appears to be spreading within the country from person to person independent of any foreign travel. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention acknowledged three such cases, known as community spread, in the U.S. late Friday night.

"When you have a community spread, someone appears, had to have been infected by someone, but you don't know who that person was," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, told NBC Saturday morning. "It becomes more difficult to track down what the original source was."

President Trump spoke at the White House on Saturday, praising the "aggressive efforts" taken by his administration to stop the spread of coronavirus.

The new cases bring the total number of confirmed cases within the United States to more than 60, though 44 of those cases originated aboard the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship and three other cases involve people who were brought back from Wuhan, China, where the global outbreak began.

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The new, unexplained COVID-19 cases were confirmed by health authorities in Washington County, Oregon, and Snohomish County, Washington, where the infected person is a high school student. These new cases join two other cases, both confirmed in California, that appear unrelated to foreign travel. An additional case was confirmed in Washington state on Friday, with the patient having recently traveled to South Korea, where more than 3,000 people are now confirmed to have the virus.

The confirmation of these new cases may actually be somewhat delayed, in part because there was an initial backlog in testing for the virus within the U.S. A problem with the test kits that the CDC distributed across the country required most testing to happen at the CDC headquarters in Atlanta. Federal health officials now say they have resolved the issue and are now working to distribute new test kits across the country.

Additionally, the UC Davis Medical Center in Sacramento, Calif., where one of the unexplained cases is being treated, says that patient didn't meet the CDC's threshold to approve a coronavirus test at first and so diagnosis was delayed for days. The CDC defended that delay, saying CDC guidelines were broad for travelers but not for people within the U.S.

Meanwhile, 124 health care workers who were likely exposed to the virus at that same UC Davis medical center were sent home and told by the hospital to quarantine themselves. The workers, who have complied with the order and are being paid, view the hospital's actions as a system failure, according to a report by KQED.

The novel coronavirus continues to spread across the globe, including a massive surge in South Korea, where more than 800 new cases were confirmed between Friday and Saturday. The South Korean government has urged its citizens to stay indoors.

Though the vast majority of the more than 85,000 confirmed cases have occurred in China where the outbreak began, the resulting disease, COVID-19, is now in at least 57 countries and on every continent excluding Antarctica, according to the World Health Organization.

In total, more than 2,800 people worldwide have died from the virus so far, mostly in China, where the death rate is estimated to be around 2 percent, much lower than the death rates for previous coronavirus outbreaks like SARS or MERS, which had death rates of 10% and 34% respectively. The death rate of this new coronavirus could also be lower than it appears if mild cases are not being reported.

Despite what could be the start of community spread, people in the U.S. do not need to change their day-to-day habits, Dr. Fauci said in his NBC interview.

"Right now the risk is still low, but this could change," he said.

Health officials maintain that among the best ways to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus are the same as those to prevent the seasonal flu: Wash your hands frequently for at least 20 seconds, avoid touching your face, and stay home when feeling sick.

NPR's Martin Kaste and Richard Harris contributed to this report.

Here we go.

[FireNexus]

We have clusters popping up in Washington. Which is unsurprising because people seem to start dying a week or so post-infection. So there have probably been infections starting to build for many days.

I’m assuming infection and hospitalization numbers start growing in earnest by Wednesday or so. I also expect a full on stock market crash on Monday if the news keeps getting worse between now and then.

[Broomstick]

Yep, this is going to start on the West Coast in the US and move eastward. Sure, they'll stop the airline flights but not the traffic on the interstates - all that truck traffic! They'll close the barn door after the horse is gone. Again.

Doesn't help that the Idiot In Chief is spouting bullshit that it's a "Democratic Hoax". Although Trump is looking haggard and i s...t a l k i n g...r e a l l y...s l o w l y at times which is WTF?

[Ralin]

Not going to lie, if America ends up getting hit harder than China I'm going to feel pretty smug.

Like, good luck and all, but.

That said...

But no, we had to suffer from "lol racism" bullshit; when it's quantifiable that LNY is a massive movement of people, with lots of expats and family relations moving around globally.

Yeah, the problem is totally that people were too afraid of seeming racist.

And obviously Lunar New Year isn’t a holiday people celebrate in Europe and America too.

Fuck you.

[mr friendly guy]

Hey if only the US did the same thing Shep was suggesting to itself during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. That virus is still killing people in 2020. But I am sure that reason was to not seem racist towards Americans.

[FireNexus]

Yep, this is going to start on the West Coast in the US and move eastward. Sure, they'll stop the airline flights but not the traffic on the interstates - all that truck traffic! They'll close the barn door after the horse is gone. Again.

Doesn't help that the Idiot In Chief is spouting bullshit that it's a "Democratic Hoax". Although Trump is looking haggard and i s...t a l k i n g...r e a l l y...s l o w l y at times which is WTF?

Tbh, I think it’s probably already everywhere, or will be within like 48 hours. Because it had to have been in California, Oregon and Washington for days at least. And we didn’t figure it out until a day before someone had it bad enough that she died.

Also,Trump is always haggard and slow.

[Ralin]

Hey if only the US did the same thing Shep was suggesting to itself during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. That virus is still killing people in 2020. But I am sure that reason was to not seem racist towards Americans.

Well it's pretty well-known here that America isn't sending their best. They're sending their dropouts, their alcoholics, their rapists, etc. Some of them, I assume, are decent people.

[mr friendly guy]

I should also point out that in the early days of the crisis, Iran sent medical supplies to China. Now that Iran is also fighting covid 19, China is now sending masks and medical team to help out.

[MKSheppard]

Hey if only the US did the same thing Shep was suggesting to itself during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. That virus is still killing people in 2020. But I am sure that reason was to not seem racist towards Americans.

Speaking of bans. China's imposed bans on US food in the past for health/sanitary reasons.

January 2015 is when they banned chicken imports. That ban lasted until November 2019; two years after the US was free of the avian flu outbreak that prompted the original 2015-era Chinese ban.

Back in 2003, they banned beef imports. That lasted until July 2017, fourteen years later; well after the MAD COW scare that prompted the original
2003-era beef ban.

When it comes to public health....

[MKSheppard]

I should also point out that in the early days of the crisis, Iran sent medical supplies to China. Now that Iran is also fighting covid 19, China is now sending masks and medical team to help out.

Right about now would be a good time to temporarily suspend sanctions on Iran for the duration of this Corona-Chan Crisis. Their economy is already shitty; if it collapses completely, the death toll will dwarf Corona-Chan's kill count.