SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

[Darth Yan]

So I used 270's custom calculator. If the none Bernie Joe and Michael candidates drop out on the 4th there are two options that are likely at this point if all three of them stay in.

1.) If No state polling is available use National Average. In that case Bernie has 1721.5 delegates come convention (if things hold up) Biden has 1160 and Bloomberg has 773
2.) If no state polling is available don't. In that case Bernie has 1318.5 Biden 885 and Bloomberg 567.

Biden strikes me at the guy who really thinks the voters want him and his message. If it's clear he's not then he may actually do the honorable thing and endorse Bernie. If THAT happens I think even the Superdelegates might swallow their pride and vote for him. Biden would have 885 and Mike would have 567.

Of course this is assuming things stay constant. If Bernie pulls off a clear victory on Super Tuesday or it becomes obvious how weak Joe is than I can EASILY see Bernie wracking up more votes.

There are 6 candidates still standing (7 if you count Tulsi but I think even SHE'S going to drop out at some point.) We'll have to see how national polling stacks up at this point

[TimothyC]

Buttigieg is out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/us/p ... s-out.html

Pete Buttigieg to Quit Democratic Presidential Race

The first openly gay major presidential candidate, Mr. Buttigieg rose to the primary’s top tier, but was unable to build a broad coalition of voters, and lost badly in South Carolina Saturday.

SELMA, Ala. — Pete Buttigieg, the former small-city Indiana mayor and first openly gay major presidential candidate, has decided to quit the Democratic race, a person briefed on Mr. Buttigieg’s plans said on Sunday, following a crushing loss in the South Carolina primary where his poor performance with black Democrats signaled an inability to build a broad coalition of voters.

Mr. Buttigieg, 38, narrowly won the Iowa caucuses early last month and came in a strong second place in the New Hampshire primary, exciting liberal white Democrats with his cool, hyper-articulate manner. But he never broadened his breadth of support in a party with a nonwhite base, and one that has veered leftward since 2018.

He came in a distant third in the Nevada caucuses, which drew strong numbers of Latino voters, and then fourth place in South Carolina, where black voters made up a majority of the Democratic electorate. He won just 3 percent of them, according to exit polls.

After raising more than $76 million in 2019, an astonishing haul for a mayor with no national profile, Mr. Buttigieg spent nearly all his treasure in Iowa and New Hampshire. He faced campaigning across the coast-to-coast states of Super Tuesday with evaporating funds and little chance of clearing the threshold of 15 percent of votes needed to amass delegates.

In the last presidential debate, on Tuesday in South Carolina, Mr. Buttigieg forcefully warned that nominating Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the front-runner, would lead to crushing defeat in the fall, not just “four more years of Donald Trump,’’ but the loss of the Democratic House majority secured by moderate candidates who won in suburban swing districts in 2018.

But Mr. Buttigieg’s own existential crisis was his inability to appeal to voters of color, both African Americans and Latinos.

Many establishment Democratic officials have openly worried about the party’s moderate candidates cannibalizing the center-left vote and making it impossible to coalesce and challenge Mr. Sanders.

Mr. Buttigieg on Monday said in a town hall on CNN that he and his fellow moderates had not had any talks about one or more of them dropping out. Asked the same question in a post-debate TV interview on Tuesday, Mr. Buttigieg argued that it was he, as the candidate with the second most delegates, whom other moderates should rally behind.

But except for a polling uptick after his strong Iowa finish, Mr. Buttigieg’s support in an average of national polls plateaued around 10 percent. That imperiled him as the race moved to the 14 Super Tuesday states, including California and Texas, where most delegates to the National Convention go only to candidates who win 15 percent in congressional districts and statewide.

As Mr. Sanders, in his second presidential run, built a devoted following of progressives with a call for political revolution, Mr. Buttigieg tried to offer an alternative: an upbeat message of unity and more ideological flexibility, aimed at attracting moderate Democrats, independents and crossover Republicans. But the pitch, which some found contained more platitudes than passion, was no match at a time of rising anger on the left that the political establishment has failed to address health care, income inequality and climate change.

[Mr Bean]

There were 29 folks running at the start Mayor Pete is the latest to drop out, 6 remaining
Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg, Warren, Gabbard, Klobuchar but we can ignore Gabbard (Less than 1% in the polls and she's not raising any money nor is she really doing events so she's can be ignored but we can still count her.)

7th: Pete Buttigieg

8th: Tom Steyer

9th: Deval Patrick

10th: Michael Bennet

11th: Andrew Yang

12th: John Delaney

13th: Cory Booker

14th: Marianne Williamson

15th: Julián Castro

16th: Kamala Harris

17th: Steve Bullock

18th: Joe Sestak

19th: Wayne Messam

20th: Beto O’Rourke

21st: Tim Ryan

22nd Bill De Blasio

23rd: Kirsten Gillibrand

24th: Seth Moulton

25th: Jay Inslee

26th: John Hickenlooper

27th: Mike Gravel

28th: Eric Swalwell

29th: Richard Ojeda

[Elfdart]

Buttigieg is out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/us/p ... s-out.html

Good riddance. In the words of Tatum (Rose McGowan) in Scream [1:44]:

"BAM! Bitch went DOWN!"

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

If Bernie is clearly the popular option I think Biden at least might endorse him.

Biden only supports Sanders if Sanders comes into the convention with 1991 delegates. As has been written about elsewhere in the thread, another Not-Sanders (Buttigieg) has had his come-to-Jesus moment, and dropped out. This helps Biden a little, but what helps him much more is Elizabeth "Sore Loser" Warren repeatedly declaring that her strategy is to hang around until the convention and then position herself as the least-worst candidate once all the fur stops flying.

If I were a Sandersista, I'd believe you if you told me her actual "strategy" is simply to deny Sanders the nomination in exchange for being Secretary of Education in Biden's cabinet, or something similarly conspiracy-theorist. Although she has the potential to be as much a pain in the Not-Sanders' side as she is Sanders'; so I'd expect enormous pressure on her to go away if she gets utterly wrecked on Super Tuesday.

[The Romulan Republic]

So I used 270's custom calculator. If the none Bernie Joe and Michael candidates drop out on the 4th there are two options that are likely at this point if all three of them stay in.

1.) If No state polling is available use National Average. In that case Bernie has 1721.5 delegates come convention (if things hold up) Biden has 1160 and Bloomberg has 773
2.) If no state polling is available don't. In that case Bernie has 1318.5 Biden 885 and Bloomberg 567.

Biden strikes me at the guy who really thinks the voters want him and his message. If it's clear he's not then he may actually do the honorable thing and endorse Bernie. If THAT happens I think even the Superdelegates might swallow their pride and vote for him. Biden would have 885 and Mike would have 567.

Of course this is assuming things stay constant. If Bernie pulls off a clear victory on Super Tuesday or it becomes obvious how weak Joe is than I can EASILY see Bernie wracking up more votes.

There are 6 candidates still standing (7 if you count Tulsi but I think even SHE'S going to drop out at some point.) We'll have to see how national polling stacks up at this point

There's another possibility which I think is looking more and more likely, which is that after his weak debate showings, the airing of his baggage, and Biden's sudden resurgence, Bloomberg utterly faceplants and gets little or nothing.

Anyway, thank God Buttigieg is out. Even more than a Sanders win, right now, I want to avoid a contested convention. The faster the field narrows the better.

[The Romulan Republic]

If Bernie is clearly the popular option I think Biden at least might endorse him.

Biden only supports Sanders if Sanders comes into the convention with 1991 delegates.

I'd like to think Biden and others would have the sense to realize that taking the nomination from Sanders via superdelegates would practically guarantee Trump's reelection, but I'm not going to bet on it.

As has been written about elsewhere in the thread, another Not-Sanders (Buttigieg) has had his come-to-Jesus moment, and dropped out. This helps Biden a little, but what helps him much more is Elizabeth "Sore Loser" Warren repeatedly declaring that her strategy is to hang around until the convention and then position herself as the least-worst candidate once all the fur stops flying.

If I were a Sandersista, I'd believe you if you told me her actual "strategy" is simply to deny Sanders the nomination in exchange for being Secretary of Education in Biden's cabinet, or something similarly conspiracy-theorist. Although she has the potential to be as much a pain in the Not-Sanders' side as she is Sanders'; so I'd expect enormous pressure on her to go away if she gets utterly wrecked on Super Tuesday.

I don't think Warren has a snowball's chance in hell of actually being the compromise candidate at the convention, especially since a lot of Sanders supporters wouldn't see her any longer as a progressive alternative, but as a turncoat who cost them the election. And deep down, she probably realizes that.

I'm guessing she's in to a) spite Sanders, or b) come to the convention with a decisive number of delegates and then endorse whoever gives her a better offer (not necessarily a post in their administration, though I'm sure she'd like that, but also concessions on platform).

[The Romulan Republic]

FiveThirtyEight has the chances of a Sanders majority down to 23, Biden at 12, and contested convention up to 64.

Is this how the Republic dies?

[Gandalf]

If that's what it takes to end a republic, then best to get to work on the next one.

[Darth Yan]

And the alternative is to let Trump become a dictator and fuck the planet even further. He HAS to fall

Personally I think that if Bernie makes a strong enough showing Biden will crash and burn. South Carolina could be an anomaly (it's one Biden's spent a LOT of resources on, many of the voters are old etc. The only other state with similar demographics is Alabama). We'll have to see but if Bernie comes out a clear winner I think most will coalesce around him

[The Romulan Republic]

If that's what it takes to end a republic, then best to get to work on the next one.

I'm sure the thought of the American republic falling is appealing to many who do not live there, do not care what happens to three hundred million Americans, and have the luxury of pretending that it won't harm them in a globalized world.

There won't be a "next one" if we lose this election. Not without a revolt that we don't currently have the appetite to fight, or the numbers or arms to win, and which would probably kill millions regardless. And not once climate change really gets to work fucking us over.

I just feel so fucking hopeless. At this point I'd welcome a Biden nomination with open arms, just to have it over, and avoid a contested convention. We were SO fucking close, and now, it looks like we have nothing to look forward to but a riot in Milwaukee, an undemocratic nominee rejected by half the party, a landslide Trump victory, and everything that comes after. More children in cages. The treason prosecutions of dissidents. More countries burning. A boot stomping on a human face, forever (or until climate change or nuclear war kills us all).

All for what? To spite Sanders? To keep him from raising their taxes? So a few also-rans can delude themselves for a few more months that they have a future?

I hope staying in to the convention will be a consolation to Warren when Trump has her taken to the concentration camps.

And the alternative is to let Trump become a dictator and fuck the planet even further. He HAS to fall

Exactly. It is far, far past time for people to stop pretending that this is politics as usual, and playing their little games when the future of the planet is on the line.

Personally I think that if Bernie makes a strong enough showing Biden will crash and burn. South Carolina could be an anomaly (it's one Biden's spent a LOT of resources on, many of the voters are old etc. The only other state with similar demographics is Alabama). We'll have to see but if Bernie comes out a clear winner I think most will coalesce around him

If I've ever prayed for a miracle, its this one. But I'd even take a Biden win with relief, if it let us avoid a contested convention.

[Darth Yan]

Gandalf thinks America is evil. This isn't news to anyone.

I'd vote for whoever the nominee is. I'm disappointed with Warren but I still think that Bernie could offer her a position. If she stays in the Senate that works too. A Dem winning means fuck all if we don't take the senate whereas if they do they might be able to blunt trump if he wins.

270 seems a bit more optimistic than 538 about Bernie's chances and it's important to note that SOME stats don't have up to date polling available. Klobacher I don't see lasting ESPECIALLY if Bernie wins Minnesota.

[The Romulan Republic]

Gandalf thinks America is evil. This isn't news to anyone.

I'd vote for whoever the nominee is. I'm disappointed with Warren but I still think that Bernie could offer her a position.

I think he shouldn't. She's shown herself to be a dedicated anti-Sanders partisan, and untrustworthy to boot.

If she stays in the Senate that works too. A Dem winning means fuck all if we don't take the senate whereas if they do they might be able to blunt trump if he wins.

Well, even without the Senate, the President can prevent the nomination of bad judges (although Mitch will probably block any Dem nominees in the Senate, so we might have a significantly shrunken judiciary with many vaccant posts). The President can also do many things via executive action.

But obviously, flipping the Senate is desirable (on that note, bad news, Doug Jones' seat in Alabama just flipped from toss-up to leans R).

270 seems a bit more optimistic than 538 about Bernie's chances and it's important to note that SOME stats don't have up to date polling available. Klobacher I don't see lasting ESPECIALLY if Bernie wins Minnesota.

FiveThirtyEight's usually pretty on the ball, so I give their predictions a lot of weight (even in their big screw-up the 2016 election, where they gave Clinton overwhelming odds to win, they were pretty damn close on predicting the popular vote- they just failed to predict how the individual swing states would break down).

Then again, they actually underrated Biden in SC by- what, ten points or so? So maybe they'll be wrong about some of the other contests too.

Klobuchar might win Minnesota, but I don't see her taking anything after it. There's really no point in her staying in post-Super Tuesday. I think it'll be a five person race at that point, and two of them (Warren and Gabbard) will basically be in it just to disrupt.

[The Romulan Republic]

Texas has narrowed on FiveThirtyEight. They're still giving Biden better odds, but its so close as to be virtually a tie: 47% chance Bernie takes it to 49 for Joe.

[Darth Yan]

Bernie may yet come out on top. If he scores wins it won't look good for Biden even if they're close. It'll send the message that Bernie's the frontrunner and that might cause support to go up.

[The Romulan Republic]

Bernie may yet come out on top. If he scores wins it won't look good for Biden even if they're close. It'll send the message that Bernie's the frontrunner and that might cause support to go up.

I think Tuesday will probably pretty much decide whether Bernie can do it, or we're headed to a clusterfuck, yeah.

Voters like a winner. If you look like you're winning, it tends to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[The Romulan Republic]

I'll say this:

I will vote Blue in the general election. Full stop, no holds barred, because we are up against a fascist criminal and climate denier/pandemic enabler. That's my duty as I see it to my country and humanity and the whole God damn planet.

But if the Centrists take the nomination from Bernie at a contested convention, and then they consequently lose in November- then I'm probably done with the Democratic Party. That would be a step too far for me, and I doubt voting will matter much at that point anyway, if Trump gets another term. We'll be looking at dictatorship, and whenever that dictatorship eventually falls, likely after immense suffering and death, we'll be building something new in its place.

If the Democrats can't stop the literal death of the republic, because their priority was fucking over Sanders instead, then they're pointless.

[Darth Yan]

South Carolina might have hurt Warren as well. People don’t like losers and she’s been getting her ass kicked. Some of her supporters may already have abandoned her.

Some of the primaries are close (Virginia and North Carolina especially). If Bernie wins by even a slight majority it’ll help him

[The Romulan Republic]

South Carolina might have hurt Warren as well. People don’t like losers and she’s been getting her ass kicked. Some of her supporters may already have abandoned her.

Some of the primaries are close (Virginia and North Carolina especially). If Bernie wins by even a slight majority it’ll help him

I do think its very important to prevent a complete Biden sweep of the South. Even one Southern state in Bernie's column would help a lot, symbolically.

[Darth Yan]

270 AND 538 have him ahead in Virginia. There's also questions about Suburban white women voting for him. North Carolina he and Biden are deadlocked.

Even 538 says they'll have to wait and see. But they have it as

California: Bernie will DEFINITELY win this one
Texas: Bernie and Joe are deadlocked. Bernie has 48 to Biden's 47. Bernie HAS to win here. If Biden does I can see it becoming a slugfest.
North Carolina: They're calling it for Biden and I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out that way but the polls are disagreeing on that score. Bernie may yet be triumphant (it helps that a lot of voters have already cast their ballots).
Virginia: They have Biden at a 7% lead but Bernie's doing pretty well to.
Massachusetts: Bernie will DEFINITELY win this one. Warren's the only other contender and she's doing half as well as he is. On the plus side if she looses here she'll probably withdraw
Minnesota: They're calling it for Klobacher, but again this IS her home state we're talking about. Bernie still is the only other real contender.
Colorado: A solid win for Bernie in this one and Warren's the only real competition.
Tennessee: They're calling it for Biden but we'll have to wait and see. Polling data isn't terribly reliable
Alabama: Biden can reliably call this one, and even Bloomberg can too. Bernie not attending Bloody Sunday might have hurt him as well
Oklahoma: One of the only three where Biden AND Bloomberg turn out well and they're both more conservative than the norm.
Arkansas: One of the only states where Bloomberg has a shot as well and again Arkansas is remarkably conservative
Utah: Solid Bernie win but some of the others might get lucky
Maine: Solid Bernie Win
Vermont: Solid Bernie Win
American Samoa: Both Bernie and Biden are tied for this one but it doesn't yield a lot of prizes.


In short Bernie has California Colorado Massachusetts Utah Maine and Vermont locked down tight. Texas he has a good chance but you don't know; I'll lean towards him winning. If he wins it'll benefit him symbolically. North Carolina and Virginia.....he has a chance but we shouldn't be surprised if they go for Biden (polling's odd on that score). Alabama Arkansas and Oklahoma are pretty solid Biden states. Minnesota Bernie COULD pull an upset (he's campaigning there the day before) but Klobacher will likely score her only REAL victory there. Tennessee.....Biden could likely win but the polling data is not that up to date. American Samoa is probably a draw.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah.

I'd say worst case for Bernie is that Biden wins the South by wide margins, wins Oklahoma and Texas and American Samoa, Klobuchar takes Minnesota, Bernie wins everywhere else but Bloomberg and Warren net a fair number of delegates. Bernie comes out looking weakened, and a contested convention (and subsequent Biden nomination) is almost certain.

Best case scenario for him is that he wins everything outside the South and Oklahoma, keeps it fairly close in Virginia and NC (I'd love an NC win, but don't expect it), and keeps Warren's numbers down, followed by her dropping out. In that case he cements his status as front-runner, and the odds of a contested convention probably go down a bit.

The most important things, I'd say, are that he wins Texas, racks up as big a margin in California as possible, and puts the Warren campaign down for the count.

Edit: Another stark difference we see here compared to 2016, which bodes well for Bernie, is that he's clearly demonstrating nation-wide appeal, while Biden has yet to prove he has anything more than regional appeal. Even utterly dominating in the South won't show that. Clinton in 2016 had her Southern Firewall, and it probably saved her campaign, but she also won in big states outside the South, including California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois (albeit by a hair) and Ohio. Biden has yet to show he can win outside the Deep South (read: states that will almost certainly all go Republican in the general).

[The Romulan Republic]

One bit of good news for the Bern is that the next round after Super Tuesday looks really damn good for him:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... ts-abroad/

Of course, all this could change if he does badly on Super Tuesday, but right now they've got him favored to win:

Michigan.
Washington.
Idaho.
North Dakota.

With Biden winning only Missouri and Mississippi, and while it ain't close, it ain't by SC margins either.

DA finishes voting that day, so that's another notch for Sanders, in all likelihood.

So if he delivers a solid performance on Tuesday, he has every chance of keeping the momentum rolling on the 10th.

[The Romulan Republic]

Band Public Enemy has kicked out Flavor Flav after he sent a bogus cease and desist order to try to stop one of the other band members, Chuck D, from doing a gig with Sanders:

https://rollingstone.com/music/music-ne ... rs-960272/

Public Enemy announced they are permanently “moving forward” without Flavor Flav, firing one of hip-hop’s most memorable hypemen after more than 35 years. The abrupt dismissal comes just two days after the rapper sent a cease-and-desist letter to Bernie Sanders over Chuck D’s concert at the campaign’s Los Angeles rally Sunday.

“Public Enemy and Public Enemy Radio will be moving forward without Flavor Flav,” the hip-hop legends said in a brief statement Sunday. “We thank him for his years of service and wish him well.”

The group reiterated that Public Enemy Radio — a Chuck D-led offshoot featuring DJ Lord, Jahi and the S1Ws — would still perform at the free, livestreamed Sanders rally gig at 6 p.m. PST at the Los Angeles Convention Center.

The cease-and-desist letter, sent to Sanders Friday by Flavor Flav’s lawyer Matthew Friedman, accused the campaign of using the hypeman’s “unauthorized likeness, image and trademarked clock” to promote the rally, even though Flavor Flav “has not endorsed any political candidate.”

“While Chuck is certainly free to express his political view as he sees fit — his voice alone does not speak for Public Enemy,” the letter states. “The planned performance will only be Chuck D of Public Enemy, it will not be a performance by Public Enemy. Those who truly know what Public Enemy stands for know what time it is. There is no Public Enemy without Flavor Flav.

“Flav … has not endorsed any political candidate in this election cycle. … The continued publicizing of this grossly misleading narrative is, at a minimum, careless and irresponsible if not intentionally misleading,” Friedman added in the letter. “It is unfortunate that a political campaign would be so careless with the artistic integrity of such iconoclastic figures in American culture.”

In a handwritten note at the bottom of the cease-and-desist, Flavor Flav wrote to Sanders, “Hey Bernie, don’t do this.”

Prior to Flavor Flav’s firing — and after the hypeman accused Sanders of using his “unauthorized likeness, image and trademarked clock” to promote the rally — Chuck D said of his bandmate of more than three decades, “Flavor chooses to dance for his money and not do benevolent work like this. He has a year to get his act together and get himself straight or he’s out.”

A lawyer for Chuck D added, “From a legal standpoint, Chuck could perform as Public Enemy if he ever wanted to; he is the sole owner of the Public Enemy trademark. He originally drew the logo himself in the mid-80s, is also the creative visionary and the group’s primary songwriter, having written Flavor’s most memorable lines.”

Taking to Twitter Sunday afternoon, Chuck D clarified that the Sanders issue was not the only reason the group fired the hypeman. “My last straw was long ago,” he wrote. “It’s not about BERNIE with Flav… he don’t know the difference between [former NFL running back] Barry Sanders or Bernie Sanders. He don’t know either. FLAV refused to support Sankofa after Harry Belafonte inducted us. He don’t do that.” Sankofa, a grassroots organization founded by Belafonte, aims to, as they note on their site, “focus on issues of injustice that disproportionately affect the disenfranchised, the oppressed, and the underserved, which left unaddressed will continue to impact the lives of too many individuals and remain a scar on our nation’s moral character.”

Legal issues had been simmering between Flavor Flav and his fellow Public Enemy bandmates for years, when Flavor Flav sued Chuck D and the group’s business management firm in 2017 over unpaid profits. “This action involves the usurpation of money and property rights from Plaintiff William J. Drayton, known as ‘Flavor Flav,’” the suit stated. “Despite Drayton’s position in Public Enemy, the group’s management and related companies have for years attempted to minimize his role in the Public Enemy business, while continuing to rely upon Drayton’s fame and persona to market the brand.”

In the lawsuit, Flavor Flav claimed that he and Chuck D had a long-established agreement that profits from their music, merchandise and concerts would be split between them. Despite that alleged arrangement, Flavor Flav claimed that Public Enemy’s business management firm Eastlink had not been sending the earnings he is owed, which have “diminished to almost nothing, and Drayton has been refused accountings, even on the items bearing his likeness,” according to the lawsuit.

“Flav will be OK. TMZ Drama is beneath me considering our age,” Chuck D tweeted at the time, blaming Flavor Flav’s “new management” for the lawsuit. “It’s low entertainment, but I definitely like to find those 50 songs he wrote.”

Per court records, the suit against Chuck D was dismissed in January 2019. A judge dismissed Flavor Flav’s case against Eastlink in April 2019 after the rapper’s legal team missed a filing deadline, though the hypeman appealed the judgment. (The case is currently working its way through the United States Court of Appeals – Ninth Circuit, per court records.)

Public Enemy’s statement added that Public Enemy Radio would release a new album in April; last December, Chuck D’s previous project Prophets of Rage dissolved following news of Rage Against the Machine’s reunion.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

One bit of good news for the Bern is that the next round after Super Tuesday looks really damn good for him:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... ts-abroad/

Of course, all this could change if he does badly on Super Tuesday, but right now they've got him favored to win:

Michigan.
Washington.
Idaho.
North Dakota.

With Biden winning only Missouri and Mississippi, and while it ain't close, it ain't by SC margins either.

DA finishes voting that day, so that's another notch for Sanders, in all likelihood.

So if he delivers a solid performance on Tuesday, he has every chance of keeping the momentum rolling on the 10th.

In the terms of delegates; Sanders has the potential to do rather worse on Super Tuesday than he did before Buttigieg dropped out. Mostly because a sinking Buttigieg lifts all ships.

It seems I've been oversimplifying the makeup of Buttigieg supporters. Apparently, if there's a candidate running for President, chances are a there's a significant fraction of Buttigieg supporters who consider them to be their second choice (including, like, 21% of them who'd switch to Sanders.) The linked article discusses how Buttigieg dropping out might give people like Biden, Bloomberg, and Warren just enough votes to cross that magic 15% viability threshold to earn delegates that Sanders might've denied them before.

Also, if you want to give yourself crippling depression, you can try your hand at FiveThirtyEight's Super Tuesday simulator; where casually playing around with the numbers suggests the entire primary season hinges on whether Sanders wins Texas and Virginia.

[Darth Yan]

He has somewhat of a lead in both but yeah it’ll be a tough contest. I’m pretty confident about Texas though. If he wins it’ll create a public impression hard to top