SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

[FireNexus]

Also, Bloomberg, for whatever reason, won American Samoa.

While polls are still open in North Carolina for the next twenty minutes, or so, ABC News has already called North Carolina for Biden, based on exit polling.

Didn’t NC polls close at 7:30?

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Also, Bloomberg, for whatever reason, won American Samoa.

While polls are still open in North Carolina for the next twenty minutes, or so, ABC News has already called North Carolina for Biden, based on exit polling.

Didn’t NC polls close at 7:30?

Most of them did. One hasn't, though.

And in other news, exit polling in Vermont shows that Sanders should get ~60% of the vote. Quite the fall from his commanding 85%+ proportion of the vote in 2016.

[Coop D'etat]

Having a long relationship and presumably some chits to cash in with Jim Clyburn was one heck of a card to Biden to play when he played it.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Having a long relationship and presumably some chits to cash in with Jim Clyburn was one heck of a card to Biden to play when he played it.

It's pretty rare to be able to point at one exact moment in time and say "That's why the history happened." Clyburn coming through with the clutch play comes pretty close, though.

Although it's arguable that Bernie Sanders always had deep structural problems in the South, just waiting to be revealed; and Biden whipping out that Clyburn endorsement really just made the revelation that much more spectacular.

Also, ABC News just called Alabama for Biden.

[Coop D'etat]

Having a long relationship and presumably some chits to cash in with Jim Clyburn was one heck of a card to Biden to play when he played it.

It's pretty rare to be able to point at one exact moment in time and say "That's why the history happened." Clyburn coming through with the clutch play comes pretty close, though.

Although it's arguable that Bernie Sanders always had deep structural problems in the South, just waiting to be revealed; and Biden whipping out that Clyburn endorsement really just made the revelation that much more spectacular.

Also, ABC News just called Alabama for Biden.

We've gotten so used to politics by way of memes and tweets, I think there's been a collective forgetting that a rolodex is a heck of a weapon too.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Having a long relationship and presumably some chits to cash in with Jim Clyburn was one heck of a card to Biden to play when he played it.

It's pretty rare to be able to point at one exact moment in time and say "That's why the history happened." Clyburn coming through with the clutch play comes pretty close, though.

Although it's arguable that Bernie Sanders always had deep structural problems in the South, just waiting to be revealed; and Biden whipping out that Clyburn endorsement really just made the revelation that much more spectacular.

Also, ABC News just called Alabama for Biden.

We've gotten so used to politics by way of memes and tweets, I think there's been a collective forgetting that a rolodex is a heck of a weapon too.

Based on the veritable flood of Biden endorsements that came out over the last 24-48 hours, his Rolodex must need a "football" to activate.

In other news, exit polling for Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee all look really good for Biden.

[FaxModem1]

Bernie is in the lead for Texas right now.

[Coop D'etat]

It's pretty rare to be able to point at one exact moment in time and say "That's why the history happened." Clyburn coming through with the clutch play comes pretty close, though.

Although it's arguable that Bernie Sanders always had deep structural problems in the South, just waiting to be revealed; and Biden whipping out that Clyburn endorsement really just made the revelation that much more spectacular.

Also, ABC News just called Alabama for Biden.

We've gotten so used to politics by way of memes and tweets, I think there's been a collective forgetting that a rolodex is a heck of a weapon too.

Based on the veritable flood of Biden endorsements that came out over the last 24-48 hours, his Rolodex must need a "football" to activate.

In other news, exit polling for Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee all look really good for Biden.

In any profession, it can be astonishing how much suction amiable old dudes who have been in the thick of things for decades have. Its a good life lesson to always have one's phone number when you need something fixed for you and to have banked your favours with them ahead of time.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Bernie is in the lead for Texas right now.

Texas polls haven't actually closed yet. Biden leads in Massachusetts and Maine, (with 2% reporting;) though exit polling in both states suggests that both should ultimately go to Sanders.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Bernie is in the lead for Texas right now.

Texas polls haven't actually closed yet. Biden leads in Massachusetts and Maine, (with 2% reporting;) though exit polling in both states suggests that both should ultimately go to Sanders.

Of course, in talking about exit polling, there's always the caveat that exit polling does not capture early voting.

With that being said, polls have closed in Colorado and Minnesota. Exit polling in Colorado looks good for Sanders; but exit polling in Minnesota is looking remarkably strong for Biden.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

And ... Minnesota has been called for Biden. Colorado has been called for Sanders.
Other states called for Biden: Virginia, Alabama, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Arkansas.
Other states called for Sanders: Vermont.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

According to Politico's tracking tool, with half the vote counted in Massachusetts and Maine, Biden is ahead. Fairly solidly in Massachusetts, and only just in Maine.

Utah has just been called for Sanders.

Sanders leads in Texas, but exit polling only favors him by 0.4% ... so Texas may effectively be a toss-up.

[Coop D'etat]

According to Politico's tracking tool, with half the vote counted in Massachusetts and Maine, Biden is ahead. Fairly solidly in Massachusetts, and only just in Maine.

Utah has just been called for Sanders.

Sanders leads in Texas, but exit polling only favors him by 0.4% ... so Texas may effectively be a toss-up.

The Biden is only strong in the South narrative didn't hold up at all.

Warren is a good wonk and a superlative lawyer, but a pretty mediocre politician as shown by her lack of hold over her home state. This is a big reason why the belief she was inherently the best candidate that is popular in her professional/academic base was a lot more about affinity politics than they realized.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

According to Politico's tracking tool, with half the vote counted in Massachusetts and Maine, Biden is ahead. Fairly solidly in Massachusetts, and only just in Maine.

Utah has just been called for Sanders.

Sanders leads in Texas, but exit polling only favors him by 0.4% ... so Texas may effectively be a toss-up.

The Biden is only strong in the South narrative didn't hold up at all.

Definitely. What's surprising is just how badly that narrative has aged. Especially since the AP is now calling Massachusetts for Biden.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

And ... polls have closed in California. Exit polling heavily favors Sanders; with the caveat that late-deciding voters broke for Biden by a rough score of 40-29. Early-deciding voters picked Sanders by a 40-18 margin. Watching tonight's results ... the early-deciding voters for the next batch of contests ...

[FireNexus]

Bernie’s lead in California looks... not great. Both Bloomberg and Biden look to have hit viability, and he doesn’t seem to have won by a big margin. I think he’s going to end up coming out of tonight the loser.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Bernie’s lead in California looks... not great. Both Bloomberg and Biden look to have hit viability, and he doesn’t seem to have won by a big margin. I think he’s going to end up coming out of tonight the loser.

California will finish counting votes for this primary, just in time for the next Presidential inauguration. Even I will admit that Sanders is likely to win once all the mail-in votes are counted.

However, it's going to be one of those Pyrex ... no, Pykrete ... no ... Pyrrhic victory things.

At the moment, Texas is also looking a lot like a Pyrrhic victory for Sanders.

For anyone wondering about Maine; who knows what the hell is going on in Maine ...

[FireNexus]

I don’t think he loses California. I think he loses the night, partially on the strength of an underwhelming win in California

[Coop D'etat]

Bernie’s lead in California looks... not great. Both Bloomberg and Biden look to have hit viability, and he doesn’t seem to have won by a big margin. I think he’s going to end up coming out of tonight the loser.

California will finish counting votes for this primary, just in time for the next Presidential inauguration. Even I will admit that Sanders is likely to win once all the mail-in votes are counted.

However, it's going to be one of those Pyrex ... no, Pykrete ... no ... Pyrrhic victory things.

At the moment, Texas is also looking a lot like a Pyrrhic victory for Sanders.

For anyone wondering about Maine; who knows what the hell is going on in Maine ...

Pyrrhic is more when you expend so many resources on a victory that it hurts your long term prospects, so if they burned all their campaign funds and emptied the war chest for later, that would be a Pyrrhic victory. California is more a missed opportunity, an indecisive victory at one point when losing elsewhere.

Looks like Biden has inched ahead in Texas, it makes little difference in delegate count but if it holds, its pretty significant to the narrative.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Bernie’s lead in California looks... not great. Both Bloomberg and Biden look to have hit viability, and he doesn’t seem to have won by a big margin. I think he’s going to end up coming out of tonight the loser.

California will finish counting votes for this primary, just in time for the next Presidential inauguration. Even I will admit that Sanders is likely to win once all the mail-in votes are counted.

However, it's going to be one of those Pyrex ... no, Pykrete ... no ... Pyrrhic victory things.

At the moment, Texas is also looking a lot like a Pyrrhic victory for Sanders.

For anyone wondering about Maine; who knows what the hell is going on in Maine ...

Pyrrhic is more when you expend so many resources on a victory that it hurts your long term prospects, so if they burned all their campaign funds and emptied the war chest for later, that would be a Pyrrhic victory. California is more a missed opportunity, an indecisive victory at one point when losing elsewhere.

As near as I can tell, Sanders invested heavily in California. His ground game there goes back literal years. He had a lot invested in winning huge in California. However, I will concede that I'm guilty of misusing the term.

Looks like Biden has inched ahead in Texas, it makes little difference in delegate count but if it holds, its pretty significant to the narrative.

Very patient people who were in line when the polls closed, are still waiting to vote in Texas. The final answer of what happens in Texas probably won't come for a while ... however, the trend line is moving in Biden's direction; and as if things weren't bad enough for Sanders, it looks like Bloomberg has a good chance of finishing above the threshold of viability in Texas.

[Darth Yan]

I read one theory. Basically if Bernie hangs around long enough he might have the power to play kingmaker (ie he could gain enough delegates to force Biden to let him have a say in the VP choice).

Bernie’s probably gonna last till at least the end of march

[The Romulan Republic]

Bernie’s lead in California looks... not great. Both Bloomberg and Biden look to have hit viability, and he doesn’t seem to have won by a big margin. I think he’s going to end up coming out of tonight the loser.

Bernie's leading by over ten points in Cali right now. Is it a Biden in SC margin of victory? No. Is he in any danger of losing it? Not even close. His lead in the delegate count is absolutely titanic, meanwhile, though they've only got 38% reporting yet.

Texas is still not called, but looks likely to be a narrow Biden win. Delegates thus far are split dead even, though.

Still, I'll hand it to Biden, he had a very good night, and a hell of a comeback from where he was a few weeks ago. Unexpectedly good enough (especially considering he won multiples states he never even campaigned in, and far exceeded the polling in multiple states) that I'm sure conspiracy theorists will make much of it (Hell, if Trump overpolled that much in the general, I'd pretty much assume fraud). In this case, though, I just see a bunch of people who don't pay much attention seeing a bunch of big endorsements and a good night in SC, and voting for who they assume is more electable.

However, this in itself should be a reminder, especially when compared to Biden's fourth and fifth place performances a few weeks ago, when he had been effectively written off, of how fluid this race has been. So while I'm sure some folks will be shouting that its over, the truth is somewhat more unsettling: we're nowhere near the end.

Next round is March 10th, which is mostly contests where Bernie is favored (or at least was before tonight). If he ekes out a delegate lead tonight, or even if its really close, and his ever-resilliant base rallies, he could still put up a strong fight, maybe keep a lead through the middle of the month. The next round after that mostly favors Biden, though, so unless Bernie really turns it around, Biden will probably take the lead there.

Me, I've cast my vote for Bernie, but I'll gladly accept either as the nominee at this point, as long as they come to the convention with the most delegates, and preferably a majority. On that note, the best news of the night is how weakly Bloomberg performed, and the reports that he may soon drop out. Fingers crossed.

Worst news: Well, it doesn't amount to much of anything in practice, but in symbolic terms, that one delegate for Tulsi really pisses me off.

[The Romulan Republic]

I read one theory. Basically if Bernie hangs around long enough he might have the power to play kingmaker (ie he could gain enough delegates to force Biden to let him have a say in the VP choice).

Bernie’s probably gonna last till at least the end of march

Given that he's won California, and 2-3 of the first four contests, and is still going to be close to Biden in delegates after tonight even if Biden has slightly more, anyone who thinks he's out before June is kidding themselves.

I'll note that Warren staying in probably cost Sanders Massachusetts and Maine. Her betrayal of the progressive movement is completel. I hope Biden rewards her well for her service, 'cause her ass is getting primaried from the Left.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, Texas called for Biden. I expect the delegates will be fairly close, but image-wise being able to say he won Texas will solidify his position as front-runner.

I won't count Bernie out, because the last two weeks have shown how premature predictions can be, and Bernie still won three of the first four states (well, sort of won Iowa), won California, and has a better ground game nationwide than Biden has had up to this point, along with far more funds. In any normal scenario, you'd expect him to be the nominee, and to have dominated tonight, based on the above. But I'm prepared for a Biden win as well. As long as he wins cleanly, and comes to the convention with more delegates, no harm no foul, as far as I'm concerned. I just hope to God we have a nominee who can beat Trump, because if we lose that race, we don't get another chance.

But I will never, ever forgive Elizabeth Warren for pretending to be a progressive, pretending to be a friend of Sanders', and then stabbing us in the back.

Looking forward, regardless of how this primary ends, I think progressives need to do four things:

1. We need to find a leader who isn't Bernie Sanders. Not because Sanders is lacking as a leader, but because he's old, and realistically he's not getting another shot after this. Fortunately, Ocasio-Cortez is all lined up to take over the movement, though there are other possibilities.

2. We need to work hard on making inroads in the South. Biden is winning there, likely Clinton, because he is well-known by the (often conservative) Southern Black Vote, and they think he can win. We need to spend the next eight years, starting yesterday, laying the ground work in the South for Ocasio-Cortez 2028.

3. Caucuses and Superdelegates both need to fucking die. We made good progress in that direction after 2016 (most states dropped their caucuses, and the superdelegates' role was reduced). The Iowa debacle may finish off caucuses for good and all.

4. We need to keep working on turning out the youth vote more. Unfortunately, many youth will doubtless feel disillusioned if Sanders loses again, and conclude that there is no point being politically engaged, which is one of the saddest things about the prospect of a Sanders defeat.

[The Romulan Republic]

A bit outdated, due to Biden's unexpected strength today, but some interesting points about how deep Sanders' strength still runs remain valid:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... esday.html

It’s been a rough 72 hours for the Bernie Sanders campaign. In South Carolina Saturday, the Vermont senator put up a respectable showing, but Joe Biden mounted a spectacular one. The former vice-president won the Palmetto State by nearly 30 points. That margin — which was almost twice as large as polls had predicted — was sufficient to give Uncle Joe a lead in the Democratic primary’s popular vote heading into Super Tuesday, despite his dismal showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. Biden proceeded to successfully read a well-written speech off a teleprompter while flubbing no more than 10 percent of its lines — and the Democratic Party’s Sanders-skeptical faction finally accepted that this conspicuously senescent old man was, in fact, their only hope.

Sanders had been on the cusp of amassing an insurmountable delegate lead on Tuesday. If things broke just right in California, the Vermont senator could have been the only candidate to finish above the 15 percent threshold for delegates in the Golden State and thereby put the primary to rest. But Biden’s triumph in South Carolina brought Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar out of the race and into his corner, and a wide array of Democratic pooh-bahs soon joined. A historically large and rapid polling shift ensued. Five days ago, the (left-aligned) pollster Data For Progress had Sanders leading the field by nine points in Texas, and two in North Carolina; in a survey taken over the past 24 hours, it found Biden up by nine in the Tarheel State and two in Texas.

Super Tuesday Polls:
CA: Sanders +7
TX: Biden +2
NC: Biden +9
VA: Biden +15
MA: Warren +2
MN: Sanders +5
CO: Sanders +11
TN: Biden +7
AL: Biden +25
AR: Biden +13
OK: Biden +7
UT: Sanders +6
VT: Sanders +41
Conducted last ~5 days via text to web.https://t.co/6Oa8kA3ala

— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) March 3, 2020
Bernie’s abrupt fall from overwhelming favorite to narrow underdog has many of his supporters understandably disheartened. But they shouldn’t feel defeated. Viewed in the context of the past two weeks, Sanders’s present position is disappointing for the left; viewed against any broader backdrop, it’s exhilarating.

If you had told the Sanders campaign one year ago that the senator would (1) emerge from the first four primary contests with a delegate lead, (2) enter Super Tuesday with an even shot of preserving his front-runner status, (3) and have, as his chief rival, a version of Joe Biden so compromised by the ravages of time as to have difficulty completing the sentence, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created _______,” the campaign would have surely taken that outcome in a heartbeat.

This is a direct quote from Joe Biden:

"We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women created by the you know, you know the thing."pic.twitter.com/A0MRpMmIWk

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) March 2, 2020
Of course, the race’s trend line is inauspicious. But Sanders has a good chance of turning back that tide. Judging by the initial polling impact, had moderates coalesced around Biden weeks ago, the Sanders campaign would likely be on death’s door. But they didn’t. As a result, Sanders was (almost certainly) able to translate his polling dominance over the past two weeks into a significant ballot lead in many states with early voting, while drastically outspending Biden on both the airwaves and on the ground. Those factors, combined with Michael Bloomberg’s resilient vote-splitting presence, could blunt the force of Biden’s surge enough to reset the campaign’s narrative Tuesday night. As Michigan State political scientist Matt Grossman notes, much of Sanders’s polling gains after Iowa and New Hampshire came from former Biden voters who had interpreted Bernie’s victories as a sign of his superior electability. If Sanders manages to eke out a delegate lead from Super Tuesday on the strength of early votes and a (soon to disappear) financial advantage, that might be enough to reverse the trend line.

Next week’s debate could further reset the campaign. To this point, Biden’s struggles with extemporaneous speaking have been mitigated by the size of the Democratic field. The demands of a six- or seven-candidate debate are less exacting than those of two- or three-person one. If Sanders can pile a dominant debate on top of a delegate lead, he could reclaim the mantle of “electability candidate” in the eyes of a decisive fraction of ordinary Democratic voters.

This is not a case for complacency. Sanders remains in a remarkably strong position for a democratic socialist in an American presidential campaign. But after the historic polling shift of the past two days, Biden appears to have the upper hand. The Sanders campaign would be wise to reflect on how this happened — and to avoid attributing the development entirely to forces beyond its control. It’s possible that there was nothing the Vermont senator could do to prevent this coalescence around Biden, or to mitigate its polling impact. But to presume that would be to embrace defeatism.

After his commanding victory in Nevada, Sanders declined to adopt the posture of a magnanimous frontrunner. He continued to campaign as an insurgent, and to paint his Democratic rivals — almost all of whom are quite popular among Democratic primary voters — as unscrupulous shills for corporate power. This approach was obviously conditioned by the belligerence of his opponents and broader Establishment forces. But if Sanders’s posture was understandable, I’m not convinced it was strategic. The socialist’s intraparty adversaries wanted to portray him as uniquely incapable of uniting the party. They made this a cornerstone of their negative messaging. And Sanders’s counterattacks on the Establishment affirmed their attacks. If the senator had proved capable of dramatically remaking the Democratic electorate in the first few contests, this unabashedly confrontational stance would make sense. But he didn’t. And virtually all the polling we have on reliable Democratic primary voters suggests a large majority of them care much more about beating Donald Trump than winning an internecine fight for the soul of the Democratic Party in the name of socialism. And that polling also suggested that such Democrats were quite open to the idea that Sanders was their best bet for unifying the party and beating Trump. Upon becoming the race’s commanding front-runner, Sanders could have focused squarely on fortifying that impression.

Instead, his campaign has been telling Democratic voters that all of their faves are worse than problematic — that Pete Buttigieg, Beto O’Rourke, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar don’t just subscribe to a misguided and outdated conception of electability, but, rather, are malevolent enemies of the working class whose main aim in politics is to “protect and enrich the wealthy and well connected.” Whatever the merits of that populist framing, it’s not clear to me what basis the campaign has for believing that this is an optimal message for winning new Democratic voters (including suddenly available former Buttigieg and Klobuchar supporters) to its cause.

Encouragingly, at a rally in Minnesota Monday night, Sanders struck a more generous tone, leavening his harsh criticism of Biden’s record with the stipulation that “Joe is a decent guy,” and appealing directly to former Buttigieg and Klobuchar supporters. Meanwhile, Sanders has taken a wisely soft approach to coaxing Elizabeth Warren out of the race and into its camp, with campaign manager Faiz Shakir telling the New York Times on Monday, “We respect the fact that she’s going to make whatever decision she makes, and she should be allowed to do that” and “be given the time and space” to determine her way forward.

Perhaps, Tuesday’s results will validate Sanders’s insurgent strategy, as a wave of disaffected, first-time voters drown out Biden’s recent gains. But if that does not happen, then the Sanders campaign will need to accept the parameters of this contest for what they are. Maybe the socialist senator can’t remake the electorate in a single cycle. But he still has time to beat the Establishment at its own game — so long as he plays to win.

Obviously, the chance for a reset on Tuesday has passed, and Biden has only grown stronger. But the point remains that Sanders wields considerable strength, especially considering his "outsider" status, and that he has a chance to expose Biden's weakness in the next debate. I would add that he has a good shot of picking up some more wins on the tenth, unless the odds there have drastically changed after tonight.

Its a fair point, I think, that Sanders needs to try (however futile it may seem) to reach out to the supporters of the other candidates, rather than simply attacking them as parts of the establishment (although Sanders does usually avoid personal attacks, his focus on attacking the "establishment" of his own party can be alienating to some).