SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

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Darth Yan
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Darth Yan »

FireNexus wrote: 2020-03-04 02:50pm In “exactly the kind of shit that justifies Warren if she is staying in just to fuck with Bernie because he’s an asshole” news, he shared details of their private conversation in a press conference in an apparent effort to pressure her to drop out:

https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/ ... 35904?s=21

I can’t figure out why so many people don’t want to endorse Bernie Sanders. It’s not at all clear that he’s a giant asshole who is bad at politics.

I hope she endorses Biden. Because I know that her endorsement will carry a lot of weight, and Bernie seems to have spent months doing all he can to destroy her rather than try and build bridges. Culminating in this horseshit.
And yet they're engaged in talks. Bernie has consistently shown a fair amount of class in many regards (he didn't rise to Hillary insulting him, he didn't react to Warren) and he also praised Warren's campaign.

Warren gambled and she lost, and may have dragged own progressivism in this election.
Gandalf wrote: 2020-03-04 08:09pm
Darth Yan wrote: 2020-03-04 08:05pm Warren got clobbered on Super Tuesday. Bernie has more support than her
Can he increase that support to be enough to win the relevant amount of delegates? Because right now it's looking... rough.
We'll need to see. Personally I think we'll have a clearer picture on March 17th. Between now and then a lot of other states are going to choose their candidates. If Biden is overwhelmingly in command Bernie will probably bow out in exchange for a few concessions. Personally I hope he puts pressure on Biden to adopt a progressive VP. That may salve some wounds and win over progressives.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Ralin »

TimothyC wrote: 2020-03-04 11:13am
FireNexus wrote: 2020-03-04 11:05am He could go crazy and choose like Rashida Tlaib or AOC, which would be funny as the Bernie left starts explaining why they’re bad now.
Rep. Occasio-Cortez isn't old enough. She won't be until 2024.
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote: 2020-03-04 11:11am if Sanders keels over while in office, Ocasio-Cortez would actually be ineligible to succeed him.
She can't be VP anyway as the position has the same requirements as being president. That one could become president is the requirement to hold the office.
It's always seemed to me that you could make a decent argument that the age and national origin restrictions on the presidency are overridden by the 14th and 26th amendments. Admittedly with the 26th that's more of a spirit of the law sort of thing.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by loomer »

Ralin wrote: 2020-03-04 09:29pm
TimothyC wrote: 2020-03-04 11:13am
FireNexus wrote: 2020-03-04 11:05am He could go crazy and choose like Rashida Tlaib or AOC, which would be funny as the Bernie left starts explaining why they’re bad now.
Rep. Occasio-Cortez isn't old enough. She won't be until 2024.
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote: 2020-03-04 11:11am if Sanders keels over while in office, Ocasio-Cortez would actually be ineligible to succeed him.
She can't be VP anyway as the position has the same requirements as being president. That one could become president is the requirement to hold the office.
It's always seemed to me that you could make a decent argument that the age and national origin restrictions on the presidency are overridden by the 14th and 26th amendments. Admittedly with the 26th that's more of a spirit of the law sort of thing.
I'd like to see that argument.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by GrandMasterTerwynn »

FireNexus wrote: 2020-03-04 02:50pm In “exactly the kind of shit that justifies Warren if she is staying in just to fuck with Bernie because he’s an asshole” news, he shared details of their private conversation in a press conference in an apparent effort to pressure her to drop out:

https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/ ... 35904?s=21

I can’t figure out why so many people don’t want to endorse Bernie Sanders. It’s not at all clear that he’s a giant asshole who is bad at politics.

I hope she endorses Biden. Because I know that her endorsement will carry a lot of weight, and Bernie seems to have spent months doing all he can to destroy her rather than try and build bridges. Culminating in this horseshit.
Also, Sanders has announced his comeback plan, which is a hard pivot towards negative advertising; combined with some half-hearted attempts at reaching out to people in the center ... mostly to convince them that mainlining Kool-Aid is A-OK.

It's almost like his personal gain outweighs his alleged desire to beat the "most dangerous President in history."
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Ralin »

loomer wrote: 2020-03-04 09:32pm I'd like to see that argument.
The, uh, 14th Amendment states that anyone born or naturalized in the US is a US citizen and prohibits denying people the rights and privileges of a citizen. This has been interpreted in the past to prohibit things like 'not letting black people vote' and so forth. The 26th only talks about not denying adult citizens the right to vote based on age, but like I said spirit of the law and they generally interpret these things broadly and assume they include implied rights that aren't explicitly mentioned.

It seems like a pretty obvious argument.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by GrandMasterTerwynn »

Ralin wrote: 2020-03-04 09:29pm
TimothyC wrote: 2020-03-04 11:13am
FireNexus wrote: 2020-03-04 11:05am He could go crazy and choose like Rashida Tlaib or AOC, which would be funny as the Bernie left starts explaining why they’re bad now.
Rep. Occasio-Cortez isn't old enough. She won't be until 2024.
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote: 2020-03-04 11:11am if Sanders keels over while in office, Ocasio-Cortez would actually be ineligible to succeed him.
She can't be VP anyway as the position has the same requirements as being president. That one could become president is the requirement to hold the office.
It's always seemed to me that you could make a decent argument that the age and national origin restrictions on the presidency are overridden by the 14th and 26th amendments. Admittedly with the 26th that's more of a spirit of the law sort of thing.
I was going to attempt it until I read up on it a little more and realized (to my eternal embarrassment) that it's actually clearly spelled out in the Twelfth Amendment:

"But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States"
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by loomer »

Ralin wrote: 2020-03-04 10:06pm
loomer wrote: 2020-03-04 09:32pm I'd like to see that argument.
The, uh, 14th Amendment states that anyone born or naturalized in the US is a US citizen and prohibits denying people the rights and privileges of a citizen. This has been interpreted in the past to prohibit things like 'not letting black people vote' and so forth. The 26th only talks about not denying adult citizens the right to vote based on age, but like I said spirit of the law and they generally interpret these things broadly and assume they include implied rights that aren't explicitly mentioned.

It seems like a pretty obvious argument.
It doesn't really seem to map at all. The restrictions on eligibility for President are distinct from rights and privileges of a citizen. The 14th has no application to either Tlaib or Ocasio-Cortez, so I'm not really sure how it applies - you'll need to spell it out for me as I only went to an Australian law school, not an American one - and the 26th is, as you said, about not denying the right to vote based on age. The right to vote is not readily identifiable with the right to hold a certain office without restriction even on a broad reading, unless you intend to suggest that restricting the age of the presidency is a fundamental infringement of the right to full participation in government?
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

FireNexus wrote: 2020-03-04 10:19am
The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-03-04 03:35amI think it more likely she's just staying in to split the progressive vote to spite Sanders.
You know, you and I actually agree here. The difference is, that in my view her behaving this way is proof that I was right to support her all along. She’s willing to do the hard thing to keep us from making a terrible choice.
You praise her for remaining in a race she can't win, misleading her supporters and donors, to split the vote of the progressive movement she claimed to support in order to get a Centrist elected?
Don’t worry, though. The Sanders campaign is just a little airborne. It’s still good, it’s still good.
I'd have thought the last two weeks, hell, the last four years, would have taught everyone the dangers of getting cocky about the results of an election.
FireNexus wrote: 2020-03-04 02:50pm In “exactly the kind of shit that justifies Warren if she is staying in just to fuck with Bernie because he’s an asshole” news, he shared details of their private conversation in a press conference in an apparent effort to pressure her to drop out:

https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/ ... 35904?s=21

I can’t figure out why so many people don’t want to endorse Bernie Sanders. It’s not at all clear that he’s a giant asshole who is bad at politics.

I hope she endorses Biden. Because I know that her endorsement will carry a lot of weight, and Bernie seems to have spent months doing all he can to destroy her rather than try and build bridges. Culminating in this horseshit.
Actually, when asked about whether he'd reached out to Warren by a reported, her confirmed that he had (there is no indication that the conversation was supposed to be confidential), that she had not made a decision, and asked everyone to respect her right to make her own choice in her own time.

This, naturally, is him trying to "pressure her to drop out". Also, Freedom is Slavery, 2 plus 2 is 5, and Big Brother is Doubleplusgood.

And how has Sanders "spent months" trying to "destroy" Warren? He's barely mentioned her from what I've seen, except when she has attacked him. Some Sanders supporters (not Bernie himself) put out some fliers that were mildly critical of Warren's electability a few months ago. Contrast to the endless, relentless attacks on Bernie's electability, as well as his personal character, which you eagerly engage in and support. He just went out and asked his supporters to respect her right to make her own decision as to who to endorse and when- but of course that's "pressuring her to drop out" (which is somehow shocking behaviour from a political candidate toward an opponent... when Sanders does it).

You're just flat-out lying here, and in the most hypocritical fashion imaginable.
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote: 2020-03-04 09:40pm
FireNexus wrote: 2020-03-04 02:50pm In “exactly the kind of shit that justifies Warren if she is staying in just to fuck with Bernie because he’s an asshole” news, he shared details of their private conversation in a press conference in an apparent effort to pressure her to drop out:

https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/ ... 35904?s=21

I can’t figure out why so many people don’t want to endorse Bernie Sanders. It’s not at all clear that he’s a giant asshole who is bad at politics.

I hope she endorses Biden. Because I know that her endorsement will carry a lot of weight, and Bernie seems to have spent months doing all he can to destroy her rather than try and build bridges. Culminating in this horseshit.
Also, Sanders has announced his comeback plan, which is a hard pivot towards negative advertising; combined with some half-hearted attempts at reaching out to people in the center ... mostly to convince them that mainlining Kool-Aid is A-OK.

It's almost like his personal gain outweighs his alleged desire to beat the "most dangerous President in history."
Funny, I didn't see you accusing every other candidate of helping Trump, even implying that they don't actually want to beat Trump, when they engaged in attacks on their opponents. Never mind that Sanders' "negative advertising" amounts to... criticizing his opponents on policy or electability, while they freely attack his personal character, compare him to Nazis, call him a communist, etc. I didn't see you accusing Chris Mathews of helping Trump when he equated Sanders' win in Nevada to the Nazis taking France.

Anyhoo, here's Bernie's actual public statement following Super Tuesday, which I encourage everyone to watch:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=ew6Kz4MMLZ8

The most significant part is probably when he acknowledges that both campaigns have reached out to Warren, and that she told him she is assessing her campaign and has made no decision. He also urged his supporters to respect Warren's right to make her own decision in her own time, so out of respect for Senator Sanders I will make no further attacks on Warren at this time.

Reg. Biden, I think the thing that worries me most about the prospect of him as the nominee is not that he's a Centrist (he's still infinitely better than Trump), or that he'll have trouble rallying progressives and young voters (I'm hoping fear of Trump will mostly take care of that, as it did in 2018), or that Trump has a ready-made conspiracy theory about the Ukraine manufactured to hammer him for months with (Trump will lie about any nominee).

No, what worries me most is that Biden is showing what seem to be clear indications of early dementia. That's not an attack- its just an observation. This is a man who claimed the endorsement of the only black female Senator while Kamala Harris was standing on the debate stage next to him, who mixed up his wife and sister, and who tried to quote a well-known passage from the Declaration of Independence and trailed off into fumbling incoherency.

I don't know, maybe it isn't that bad, maybe he'll keep it together, maybe he'll win. But I keep imagining Biden doddering out onto the debate stage in the general and forgetting his name, standing there muttering incoherently while Trump mocks "Senile Joe" in front of tens of millions of viewers. And if he does win, what then? If his mind's already slipping... either he's a figurehead while the government is really run by his cabinet and advisers, or it gets too bad to gloss over and he's out before his first term's done, which means when we vote for him, we're actually voting for his as-yet-unknown VP.

I wonder what happens if one candidate wins the most delegates, but then by the convention (or worse, during the general) turns out to be medically unfit to run. What's the procedure there? Because leaving aside Biden's mental state, the possibility of a coronavirus pandemic makes that a really relevant question.

The obvious thing, I'd think, would be for the nomination to go to the person with the second most votes. But I could see it getting really messy, especially if its post-convention and the nominee is decided, but its too late to change which name is on the ballots legally. Not a fun thought.

Hmm, I wonder if that was Warren's game plan- stay in to the convention, hope Biden has to drop out for medical reasons, then pitch herself as the compromise candidate between Sanders and Bloomberg. :wink:
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

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Gandalf wrote: 2020-03-03 05:53pm
aerius wrote: 2020-03-03 05:48pm Question: If it goes to a brokered convention, is it theoretically possible for Hillary to swoop in out of left field and claim the leadership?
Technically, yes.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Oh for fuck's sake, I thought we were at least done with "CROOKED HILLARY IS GOING TO RIG IT!" theories.

Hillary isn't running. If she tried to come in at the convention with zero votes, having never run in the primary, she'd be told to fuck off, because Biden is also a candidate acceptable to the Center, and would actually have votes and endorsements. Hillary gets the nomination when and if every other candidate with delegates besides Tulsi Gabbard drops dead, and not before. Probably not even then.

The only people who keep obsessing on Hillary are pro-Republican and pro-Kremlin agitators (ie Tulsi Gabbard and aerius) who desperately wish they were running against Hillary again because it worked so well for them last time.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

A bit of good news- voter turnout was through the roof on Tuesday, and set an all-time record in Virginia:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... er-tuesday
Democratic voter turnout surged on Super Tuesday, exceeding 2016 levels in at least a dozen states and setting an all-time record in one of them.

In Virginia, the fourth most delegate-rich state to hold a primary Tuesday, more than 1.3 million voters cast ballots — a nearly 70 percent increase over 2016, when about 783,000 voted in the Democratic presidential primary. That surpasses a previous record set in 2008, when just under 1 million voters turned out.

In North Carolina, turnout was up by about 17 percent over 2016 levels. And in Texas, at least 45 percent more voters went to the polls on Tuesday than showed up four years ago, according to an analysis of vote returns.

Turnout also skyrocketed in contests in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and Utah, though those states switched from caucuses to primaries this year, making it difficult to compare Tuesday’s turnout to that of past election years.

The gains are an early sign of enthusiasm among Democratic voters as they look to recapture the White House from President Trump.

“If I was in the White House or I was in Trump’s campaign looking at poll numbers right now, I would be absolutely terrified,” said Michael Starr Hopkins, a Democratic strategist. “I don’t see how — with the wind at [former Vice President Joe] Biden’s back and the kind of turnout we’re seeing — Trump is just going to run away with this election.”

In only one state did turnout decrease from its 2016 levels: Oklahoma. Fewer than than 304,000 voters cast ballots in the Sooner State’s Democratic primary on Tuesday. That’s down from about 335,000 four years ago.

To be sure, votes in several states were still being tallied on Wednesday. In California, where roughly 3 million votes have already been tallied, millions more ballots are expected to be counted, and county election officials have until the close of business on Thursday to report how many votes they have left to count.

The increased voter turnout on Tuesday was driven largely by moderates, who helped deliver several key victories to Biden.

The former vice president’s campaign has rebounded in recent days after he notched a decisive victory in the South Carolina primary on Saturday, a win driven in large part by strong turnout from moderates and black voters, who made up a majority of the state’s Democratic electorate.

That win combined with the exits from the race of former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) helped Biden consolidate the support of moderate voters, many of whom remain wary of nominating Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a self-described democratic socialist.

In Texas, roughly 43 percent of the electorate on Tuesday self-identified as moderate, according to exit polling. That’s a nearly 10-point increase over 2016, when about 34 percent described themselves as moderate. That trend was also seen across Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama and Massachusetts, where Biden scored an unexpected first-place finish.

That surge in moderate turnout likely worked to the detriment of Sanders, who has long argued that high turnout, particularly from young voters, would yield electoral wins for his campaign.

But those young voters did not turn out on Tuesday at the rate that Sanders had hoped. Exit polls show that the Vermont senator won voters between the ages of 18 and 29 by wide margins across the 14 Super Tuesday states. But no state saw an increase in those voters’ share of the electorate.

“Any candidate who relies on college-aged voters to push them across the finish line is usually disappointed,” Hopkins, the Democratic strategist, said.

“The 35-and-up, 65-and-up voters — they vote. They consistently vote,” he added. “They show up to the polls. They wait in line. And that’s going to be Sanders’s long-term problem.”

Sanders scored four wins, including one in his home state of Vermont and a decisive victory in California, the largest delegate prize of the primary contest. But he also saw his share of the vote decrease in several states, where moderates turned out in force.

In Oklahoma, a state Sanders carried in his 2016 primary bid against Hillary Clinton, Biden bested Sanders by 13 points. At the same time, the share of moderate voters in the state’s primary surged by 15 points, jumping from about 36 percent four years ago to 51 percent on Tuesday, exit polls show.

In a victory speech in Los Angeles on Tuesday, Biden touted the primary returns as evidence that he had built the broadest coalition of any candidate in the nominating contest, noting that the increased voter turnout had allowed him to run up the score on Super Tuesday.

“People are talking about a revolution,” Biden said, delivering an implicit jab at Sanders and his message of political revolution. “We've increased turnout. They turned out for us.”
The youth turnout hasn't been great, unfortunately, but overall its looking good. And this race will ultimately be won or lost on the level of Democratic turnout.
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"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Darth Yan »

My opinion is that we won't know for certain who the nominee is until March 17th. A lot of delegates are voting and March seems to be the last time anyone can drop without forcing a contested convention.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Gandalf »

The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-03-04 10:37pm *snip concerns about Biden's mental state*
I'm inclined to agree with this. Biden is making a weird amount of gaffes, and unlike Trump or Bush II can't just integrate it into his "brand." Biden is basically Clinton 2016 again, albeit with different baggage.

If I was in Sanders HQ, I would say that they should draw a red line after which they'll pull out, and if it comes to it, pull out citing party unity, and spend all efforts growing the progressive wing of the party at a grassroots level.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Ralin »

The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-03-04 11:00pm Oh for fuck's sake, I thought we were at least done with "CROOKED HILLARY IS GOING TO RIG IT!" theories.

Hillary isn't running. If she tried to come in at the convention with zero votes, having never run in the primary, she'd be told to fuck off, because Biden is also a candidate acceptable to the Center, and would actually have votes and endorsements. Hillary gets the nomination when and if every other candidate with delegates besides Tulsi Gabbard drops dead, and not before. Probably not even then.

The only people who keep obsessing on Hillary are pro-Republican and pro-Kremlin agitators (ie Tulsi Gabbard and aerius) who desperately wish they were running against Hillary again because it worked so well for them last time.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Darth Yan wrote: 2020-03-04 11:25pm My opinion is that we won't know for certain who the nominee is until March 17th. A lot of delegates are voting and March seems to be the last time anyone can drop without forcing a contested convention.
I think March 10th is likely make it or break it for Sanders. I mean, never say never, everyone thought Biden was done a week or two ago, but pretty much yeah. He needs to do well on the tenth (he won't win Mississippi, presumably, or Missouri, but if he can win the others and keep it fairly close in Missouri, he might get some momentum back and either take/hold the delegate lead, or keep Biden from widening it). He also needs to have a really good debate on the 15th. We'll also see if Warren drops out, and if she endorses, and what effect that has.

If Biden has a strong night on the 10th, and/or Bernie fails to take him down hard in the debate after that, then he's likely to build up momentum and a lead that is more or less insurmountable, as the next contest after that (the 17th) is mostly states that seem to be favoring him.
Gandalf wrote: 2020-03-04 11:30pm
The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-03-04 10:37pm *snip concerns about Biden's mental state*
I'm inclined to agree with this. Biden is making a weird amount of gaffes, and unlike Trump or Bush II can't just integrate it into his "brand." Biden is basically Clinton 2016 again, albeit with different baggage.
He's not Hillary, no. For one thing he's male- that shouldn't make a difference, of course, but it probably will, with some people. He also doesn't have thirty or forty years of relentless Republican propaganda poisoning the country against him. And he can point to the actual consequences of Trump's first term as evidence that people need to get behind him, rather than just speculating about how bad Trump will be.

On the other hand, if he's going senile, that's an objectively bigger mark against his fitness to be President than any baggage Hillary had.
If I was in Sanders HQ, I would say that they should draw a red line after which they'll pull out, and if it comes to it, pull out citing party unity, and spend all efforts growing the progressive wing of the party at a grassroots level.
The obvious red line would be "the point at which it is no longer possible for Sanders to win a majority of pledged delegates". He could make the case for staying in as long as he has a chance of winning more than Biden, but given that a contested convention is very unlikely to go his way, that would be more about trying to give himself as much influence on platform at the convention, and is probably not worth risking a contested convention.

Edit: Though I suppose he could stay in until all voting had finished, get as many delegates/as much influence as possible, but drop out between the final contest and the convention if he lacks a majority, basically like he did in 2016. Point is, I don't think Bernie should try to go to the convention without a majority.
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"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

I do think that regardless of the outcome of the primary, progressives need to start looking forward to the next race, because one thing that's clear is that it takes a lot of time to build-up a nation-wide base of support, and even after several years Sanders is still far behind Biden and other "establishment" types in some parts of the country.

First off, we have to beat Trump. If "progressives" throw it to Trump out of spite, then we lose everything, including our souls. We lose this race, there basically is no election in four years.

Secondly, we need to really work overtime on building inroads in the South. I don't think Sanders has a black voter problem overall- he wins the younger black vote and does better with the overall black vote in some places than in others. But he does have a Southern problem. He just doesn't appeal there. Those states, even on the Dem side, tend to be more conservative, and seem very, very loyal to the Clinton/Obama wing of the party. Progressives need to spend the next eight years focussing on making inroads there, if we're going to be able to get those states behind, say, AOC in eight years.
Last edited by The Romulan Republic on 2020-03-04 11:44pm, edited 1 time in total.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Gandalf »

The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-03-04 11:35pmHe's not Hillary, no. For one thing he's male- that shouldn't make a difference, of course, but it probably will, with some people. He also doesn't have thirty or forty years of relentless Republican propaganda poisoning the country against him. And he can point to the actual consequences of Trump's first term as evidence that people need to get behind him, rather than just speculating about how bad Trump will be.

On the other hand, if he's going senile, that's an objectively bigger mark against his fitness to be President than any baggage Hillary had.
He doesn't have Clinton level baggage, but he's got a record of votes going back to the seventies, and eight years of Obama stuff. He's the nominee of a party with an increasingly loud progressive wing, with a background that has Iraq, the civil liberties of the Obama presidency, and footage of his hands.
The obvious red line would be "the point at which it is no longer possible for Sanders to win a majority of pledged delegates". He could make the case for staying in as long as he has a chance of winning more than Biden, but given that a contested convention is very unlikely to go his way, that would be more about trying to give himself as much influence on platform at the convention, and is probably not worth risking a contested convention.
That's one, but another could be to pull out earlier to preserve goodwill in the party and even preserve his own brand.
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The Romulan Republic
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Gandalf wrote: 2020-03-04 11:44pm
The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-03-04 11:35pmHe's not Hillary, no. For one thing he's male- that shouldn't make a difference, of course, but it probably will, with some people. He also doesn't have thirty or forty years of relentless Republican propaganda poisoning the country against him. And he can point to the actual consequences of Trump's first term as evidence that people need to get behind him, rather than just speculating about how bad Trump will be.

On the other hand, if he's going senile, that's an objectively bigger mark against his fitness to be President than any baggage Hillary had.
He doesn't have Clinton level baggage, but he's got a record of votes going back to the seventies, and eight years of Obama stuff. He's the nominee of a party with an increasingly loud progressive wing, with a background that has Iraq, the civil liberties of the Obama presidency, and footage of his hands.
The obvious red line would be "the point at which it is no longer possible for Sanders to win a majority of pledged delegates". He could make the case for staying in as long as he has a chance of winning more than Biden, but given that a contested convention is very unlikely to go his way, that would be more about trying to give himself as much influence on platform at the convention, and is probably not worth risking a contested convention.
That's one, but another could be to pull out earlier to preserve goodwill in the party and even preserve his own brand.
I don't think it would help much, to be honest.

If he drops out early, while his supporters still feel he has a chance, they're just going to feel cheated, and like he was unfairly pressured out.

I think the two possible red lines are basically "when he can't win a majority" and "when he can't win the most delegates". I lean toward the former one, because I really don't want a contested convention, but I also know that if he has more delegates at the end, even if its not a majority, the temptation to fight it out at the convention will probably be too great.

Yeah, I think he should drop quickly if it is no longer possible for him to get a majority.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Napoleon the Clown »

So I'm not feeling overly inclined toward reading several dozen posts of people sniping at each other... Has anyone pointed out that the idea that Warren dropping out is inherently good for Bernie is a... silly idea? Not all of Warren's supporters right now have Bernie as their second pick. Or third pick. It's hard to say where her supporters would shift to, especially the supporters who are actually likely to vote.

If you REALLY want Warren to be able to provide as much support as possible for Bernie, it might even turn out best for her to stay in the race for as long as possible before dropping out, endorsing Bernie, and then any delegates she's picked up in states where delegates get reassigned to a drop-out's endorsee will go to Bernie. Assuming it would even make a difference. There are a lot of Warren supporters that look at Bernie and, while they agree with a lot of his positions, they don't necessarily think he is entirely palatable to the electorate at-large. Or have doubts as to his ability to work with Congress, regardless of composition, to get shit done. Oh... And then there's the matter of the vitriol spewed by Bernie's supporters. Calling Warren "Senator Snake Emoji" doesn't exactly inspire camaraderie. I know that I kinda question what it says about someone when they've got such an enormous contingent of supporters that are that fucking toxic. And for all Bernie's calls for them to cut out the vitriol... They're not, so how much leadership potential does he even really have?
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by His Divine Shadow »

That's not really toxic at all and nothing from Bernies contingent has been worse than from the other groups, one just has to go on twitter and other places and look around what people are saying. It's just a double standard and a weak excuse, typical stuff really.
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His Divine Shadow
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by His Divine Shadow »

This toxicity nonsense is nicely illustrated below. It's just become it's own self-fullfilling prophecy. Any bernie supporter says anything or talks back in any way... toxic!

Image

This has a lot of parallels IMO with how recently everyone kept going on about the antifa and "left political violence" when 100% of all politically related murders in the US the last few years were done by right wing groups in the US.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by loomer »

I reckon she's still mad about Kamala getting rightfully dragged for her actions as DA and AG.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Darth Yan »

I can attest that a lot of a Kamela fans DETEST Lara Bazelon (the writer who first widely publicized Kamela’s faults).

I was wary ever since the Kevin Cooper case (google it. It’s a real horror show involving racism and corruption far beyond the pale)
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Napoleon the Clown wrote: 2020-03-05 12:46am So I'm not feeling overly inclined toward reading several dozen posts of people sniping at each other... Has anyone pointed out that the idea that Warren dropping out is inherently good for Bernie is a... silly idea? Not all of Warren's supporters right now have Bernie as their second pick. Or third pick. It's hard to say where her supporters would shift to, especially the supporters who are actually likely to vote.
That's fair. I think it would help Bernie more than hurt him, but how much is impossible to say. It would help more if she didn't just drop out, but also endorsed him, though my hopes are low on that score after the last couple weeks.
If you REALLY want Warren to be able to provide as much support as possible for Bernie, it might even turn out best for her to stay in the race for as long as possible before dropping out, endorsing Bernie, and then any delegates she's picked up in states where delegates get reassigned to a drop-out's endorsee will go to Bernie. Assuming it would even make a difference.
That's for her and Sanders to negotiate.
There are a lot of Warren supporters that look at Bernie and, while they agree with a lot of his positions, they don't necessarily think he is entirely palatable to the electorate at-large. Or have doubts as to his ability to work with Congress, regardless of composition, to get shit done. Oh... And then there's the matter of the vitriol spewed by Bernie's supporters. Calling Warren "Senator Snake Emoji" doesn't exactly inspire camaraderie. I know that I kinda question what it says about someone when they've got such an enormous contingent of supporters that are that fucking toxic. And for all Bernie's calls for them to cut out the vitriol... They're not, so how much leadership potential does he even really have?
:roll:

You should hear some of the things Warren supporters say about us. Or Biden supporters. But as is constantly demonstrated, there are two different standards of behaviour for Sanders and his supporters, and everyone else. Any negative comments by any Sanders supporters are seen as unforgiveable divisive attacks that help Trump and are reflective of the bad character of all Sanders supporters and Sanders himself. Any attacks on Sanders go by without comment, or are seen as justified to keep him out of the nomination.

It took Sanders (a Jewish candidate who lost family in the Holocaust) being compared to the Nazis to get any real pushback or contrition from the mainstream.

Anyway, as I said above, out of respect for Sanders' wishes, I am laying off all attacks on Warren for the time being. I can't speak for anyone else.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by FireNexus »

Liz Warren dropped out. I hope she endorses Gabbard.
I had a Bill Maher quote here. But fuck him for his white privelegy "joke".

All the rest? Too long.
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