The SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 coronavirus

[Jub]

So the CVS near my house in Cranston, Rhode Island is rationing the sale of any antibacterial products to two items per person...

I work at London Drugs, we did that and the shipment was still gone before noon. We also have a limit of 4 packs of toilet paper per customer.

[FaxModem1]

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has quarantined himself after exposure to the virus.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, good for him for self-quarantining. Probably the first decent thing Cruz has done in a while.

[Jub]

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has quarantined himself after exposure to the virus.

Can we brick him in and leave him there?

[aerius]

France & Germany look like they're off to the races. Based on my eyeballing of the covid tracker site, 500 or so cases seems to be the threshold where the infection rate really takes off. Below 500 and you maybe get a dozen or 2 new cases a day, but once you go above it picks up fast and you start seeing daily increases of 100 or more. Japan, the US, and Spain have recently broken 500 so it looks like a breakout is imminent.

[Broomstick]

Keep in mind that in the US those 500 cases are spread over an entire continent, a bit more so than Italy, Germany, Spain, etc.

Look for it to explode in the US when you get a concentrated locus of 500 cases. I'm guessing West Coast first, followed by the New York City area. After that... we'll see.

[chimericoncogene]

https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/

If this is to be believed, there are about ~600 undetected cases in Seattle, which escaped notice due to conservative testing on the part of the CDC nationwide throughout February. According to this epidemiologist, Seattle is now approximately where Wuhan was at ~Jan 1, with a major outbreak under three weeks away unless aggressive measures are taken.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, shit.

Given that I live a couple hours ferry ride away, I wonder how many undetected cases there are here.

[Broomstick]

According to this epidemiologist, Seattle is now approximately where Wuhan was at ~Jan 1, with a major outbreak under three weeks away unless aggressive measures are taken.

I suspect a major outbreak even WITH aggressive measures.

[The Romulan Republic]

Sanders has said he is not yet cancelling rallies, but that his campaign is in close contact with local health authorities, and will not endanger the public: https://cnn.com/2020/03/08/politics/ber ... index.html

[chimericoncogene]

I suspect a major outbreak even WITH aggressive measures.

Well, there's China-major, with a few thousand dead and eighty thousand infected two months in (and 400 billion in losses from shutting down the economy), there's worst-case-scenario with half a million dead nationwide, and there's everything in between these extremes (maybe less aggressive measures will keep the economy afloat longer? Dunno. But remember, bad economies hurt people too.).

To paraphrase Buck Turgidson, what measures are taken can materially make the difference between two admittedly regrettable but nevertheless distinguishable post-outbreak environments.

(Other factors include intrinsic societal socioeconomic resilience and good old fashioned luck)

[Col. Crackpot]

Jesus Christ the markets are bonkers today. Futures trading suspended. US markets down 5% overnight. Italian FTSE MIB is down 10%. The rest of Europe is down 6%. London markets down to a post Brexit low. Shit is going down.

[mr friendly guy]

The Coronavirus has brought out the best in Australians. Fighting over toilet paper.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/ ... s/12037046

Two Sydney women have been charged over a physical altercation over toilet paper, which occurred at a Western Sydney supermarket on Saturday morning.

NSW Police said officers were called out to a Woolworths in Chullora, near Bankstown, after an argument broke out between two women in an aisle over toilet paper.

What? You guys expected me to say something sarcastic like racism. Well that happened to, but fighting over toilet paper is much more funnier.

[J]

Jesus Christ the markets are bonkers today. Futures trading suspended. US markets down 5% overnight. Italian FTSE MIB is down 10%. The rest of Europe is down 6%. London markets down to a post Brexit low. Shit is going down.

1) One or more of the majors had their positions in the oil markets blown when OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on production quotas
2) That someone is hitting the Fed's emergency lending facilities really hard

3)

[Col. Crackpot]

NY Fed opened the spigot on repo...

The 30 year treasury is opening at 85 bips. The entire yield curve is under 100 bips. Hoooo leeee fuuuk

This is the time on the economic cycle where we look for a calming influence from places like The White House and Downing Street to restore some sort of confidence.

*looks at who occupies those places*

Oh poop.

[Col. Crackpot]

And trading is halted for 15 minutes

[Broomstick]

Trading resumed. Teeny rebound because, you know, "buy low" but the trend since is either holding or continuing to slide downward. Looks like the trading interruption did what it was supposed to do, though, and halted the free fall.

[FireNexus]

Trading resumed. Teeny rebound because, you know, "buy low" but the trend since is either holding or continuing to slide downward. Looks like the trading interruption did what it was supposed to do, though, and halted the free fall.

I’m very glad I ignored the usual smart advice and rejiggered my 401k to more heavily favor bond and real estate index funds when the initial market shocks started. I know it’s usually a bad idea, but when you have a global pandemic about to shut down global consumer spending and strain supply chains, you’d be a fool not to do so.

[aerius]

The Church strikes again
https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/loca ... d/2235098/

Attendees of DC Church Told to Self-Quarantine Due to Possible Coronavirus Exposure

Anyone who attended one church in Northwest Washington, D.C., on certain dates in February and March is being told to self-quarantine for 14 days because of possible exposure to the coronavirus, D.C.'s mayor said Monday morning.

Additionally, Mayor Muriel Bowser said she is considering declaring a state of emergency and will decide later Monday. The city secured a lease for a potential quarantine facility in the event that it is needed, she said.

A rector at Christ Church Georgetown tested positive for coronavirus, District officials announced this weekend.

If you are one of hundreds of people who attended Christ Church Georgetown on O Street NW on Feb. 24 or between Feb. 28 and March 3, D.C. public health officials say you should self-quarantine for 14 days from the last time you visited the church. Also, you are recommended to call your health care provider immediately.

I dug around a bit more and there's apparently around 500 people in the church who were exposed. Looks like DC is now nicely seeded with the virus.

[MKSheppard]

I dug around a bit more and there's apparently around 500 people in the church who were exposed. Looks like DC is now nicely seeded with the virus.

I was gonna post this, but you beat me to it. Between this, CPAC and AIPAC; yeah, DC's full of it now.

Meanwhile...

LINKYPOO

Daily Heil, but still:

A Chinese passenger has been tackled by a plane's cabin crew after she allegedly coughed at flight attendants on purpose amid coronavirus outbreak. The unidentified woman was infuriated while being held on board for nearly seven hours waiting for health checks after the Thai Airways flight landed at the Shanghai Pudong Airport last Friday. The female passenger is seen in a video being restrained by a male cabin crew member after she began coughing at one of the air stewardesses. The airline confirmed the incident in a post on their official Weibo page and said the local airport has recently intensified the level of coronavirus checks, particularly for passengers travelling from high-risk countries.

Seven hour wait? Jesus.

JAPAN

Japan's local governments urged to prep for COVID-19 rush on hospitals
MAR 9, 2020

The health ministry said Monday it has urged local governments to prepare their hospitals for an influx of people infected with the new coronavirus, and has provided metrics that can be used to calculate the numbers expected at the outbreak’s peak.

Using the metrics and government demographic estimates as of October 2018, Tokyo is estimated to see 45,400 outpatients and 20,500 inpatients per day, of whom 700 will be in a severe condition.

Hokkaido, where the largest number of infections has been reported in the country, is estimated to be seeing 18,300 outpatients and 10,200 inpatients daily, of whom about 340 are in a severe condition.

The ministry, which urged municipalities to boost preparedness at hospitals in a letter dated Friday, explained that the number of patients would reach its peak about three months after the pneumonia-causing virus started spreading in local communities.

As the number of people infected with the virus has varied between prefectures so far, each local government must estimate its own peak and prepare for it, the ministry said. The ministry has also asked local governments to decide which medical institutions will deal with those who need to be hospitalized, receive intensive care or be put on a respirator. The municipalities have been asked to prepare the necessary medical equipment and supplies........(more, I left in only the most interesting part)

[MKSheppard]

One or more of the majors had their positions in the oil markets blown when OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on production quotas

Right now, the oil market was depressed $/bbl due to China's economic consumption being WAAAAY down from Corona (nobody is driving or travelling).

Then Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to get into an oil price war.

LINK

SINGAPORE: Saudi Arabia plans to boost oil output next month to well above 10 million barrels a day, as the kingdom responds aggressively to the collapse of its OPEC+ alliance with Russia.

The world’s largest oil exporter engaged in an all-out price war on Sunday by slashing pricing for its crude by the most in more than 30 years.

State energy giant Saudi Aramco is offering unprecedented discounts in Asia, Europe and the US to entice refiners to use Saudi crude.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia has privately told some market participants it could raise production much higher if needed, even going to a record 12 million barrels a day, according to people familiar with the conversations, who asked not to be named to protect commercial relations. With demand ravaged by the coronavirus outbreak, opening the taps would throw the oil market into chaos.

"Saudi Arabia is now really going into a full price war,” said Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at oil consultant FGE. The Saudi Energy ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Aramco’s unprecedented pricing move came just hours after the talks between the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ended in dramatic failure. The breakup of the alliance effectively ends the cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has underpinned oil prices since 2016. Production limits agreed to by OPEC and its erstwhile partners expire at the end of the month, opening the way for producers to ramp up output.

The company’s shares plunged 9% in Riyadh on Sunday, the first time the stock slumped below its initial offering price. Aramco traded at 29.95 riyals as of 1:57 p.m., giving it a market value of 6 trillion riyals (US$1.6 trillion). The Saudi government sold 1.5% of the energy giant’s shares at 32 riyals each in December.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, closed down 9.4% on Friday, its biggest daily drop since the global financial crisis in 2008, settling at US$45.27 a barrel.

Saudi production is initially likely to rise to between 10 million and 11 million barrels a day in April, from about 9.7 millions a day this month, according to people familiar with Saudi thinking. The final figure would depend of the response of refiners to the price cuts, the same people said.

The shock-and-awe Saudi strategy could be an attempt to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia and other producers, in an effort to bring them back to the negotiating table, and then quickly reverse the production surge and start cutting output if a deal is achieved.

"It’s certainly a high-risk, high-stakes approach,” Tim Fox, chief economist at Dubai-based lender Emirates NBD PJSC, said Sunday in a Bloomberg Television interview. "It didn’t come together on Friday and I think market confidence that it will at some point in the next couple of weeks is actually quite low.”

The production increase and deep discounts mark a dramatic escalation by Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi oil minister, after his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak rejected an ultimatum on Friday in Vienna at the OPEC+ meeting to join in a collective production cut. After the talks collapsed, Novak said countries were free to pump-at-will from the end of March.

With jet-fuel, gasoline and diesel consumption rapidly falling due to the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak, the energy market now faces a simultaneous supply-and-demand shock.

After the failure in Vienna, Riyadh responded within hours by slashing its so-called official selling prices, offering record discounts for the crude it sells worldwide. Aramco tells refiners each month the prices for its crude, often adjusting the OSPs by a few cents or as much a couple of dollars.

But in a notice to buyers sent Saturday, Aramco announced it was slashing most official prices by US$6-$8 a barrel across all regions. The dramatic move will resonate beyond Saudi Arabia. The kingdom’s pricing decision affects about 14 million barrels a day of oil exports, as other producers in the Persian Gulf region follow its lead in setting prices for their own shipments.

In one of the most significant pricing moves, Aramco widened the discount for its flagship Arab Light crude to refiners in northwest Europe by a hefty US$8 a barrel, offering it at US$10.25 a barrel less than the Brent benchmark. In contrast, Urals, the Russian flagship crude blend, trades at a discount of about US$2 a barrel less than Brent.

Traders said the Saudi move was a direct attack at the ability of Russian companies to sell crude in Europe.

"This is going to get nasty,” said Doug King, a hedge fund investor who co-founded the Merchant Commodity Fund. "OPEC+ is going to pump more, and the world is facing a demand shock. US$30 oil is possible.”

Some believe the market could go even lower.

"We’re likely to see the lowest oil prices of the last 20 years in the next quarter,” said Roger Diwan, an oil analyst at consultant IHS Markit Ltd., implying that the price could fall below US$20 a barrel.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell to a low of US$9.55 a barrel in December 1998, during one of the rare price wars that Saudi Arabia has launched over the last 40 years. - Bloomberg

This will also hurt the US economically, a lot of shale oil is economic only at higher $/bbl levels.

[FireNexus]

This might literally kill Vladimir Putin if it goes on very long.

[MKSheppard]

Apparently in some parts of Italy, they're no longer artificially ventilating people over 60.

[LadyTevar]

This racist shit has gotten on the Mod's Last Nerve.
Shep, you are ONE STEP AWAY FROM BANNING. Anyone else spreading this "Corona-Chan" racist bullshit will join him.
And Crockpot? Do Not Poke the Dalton Right Now.

Right now, I have reports on Shep, on TRR, on Jub, and on Gandolf in various threads, and The Mods are on the edge of the Nuclear Option. Do not make me Lock this thread. Stick to the NEWS, remove the Yellow Peril Racist Bullshit, or get out.

[FaxModem1]

Italy is now in lockdown