The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by His Divine Shadow »

The only solidarity there is in europe is against immigrants and even then that's not really true, since we're willing to let the greeks handle it without taking on any of them ourselves, all while tut-tuting them for a mess we helped create.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by mr friendly guy »

And Denmark becomes the latest country to adopt Chinese style lockdown measures.

Not going to lie. Feeling very smug after a Danish newspaper thought it was totally cool to publish a picture of a Chinese flag with the stars replaced by viral phages. China explain their culture tends not to kick people when they need help, and that seems to be what some Danes did. Of course it was mah freedom of speech.

Fair enough, here is hoping the new Danish flag goes viral.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by wautd »

Meanwhile having yourself tested for corona costs 5000 $ in the States. Because affordable health care is socialist and evil right?
mr friendly guy wrote: 2020-03-12 09:35am Feeling very smug after a Danish newspaper thought it was totally cool to publish a picture of a Chinese flag with the stars replaced by viral phages.
Oh come one, that was a pretty clever cartoon, and China was way out of line in demanding to censure it.
Fair enough, here is hoping the new Danish flag goes viral.
Sure, why not?
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by mr friendly guy »

wautd wrote: 2020-03-12 11:16am
Oh come one, that was a pretty clever cartoon, and China was way out of line in demanding to censure it.
What's wrong with asking for censure (ie express disapproval) as opposed to censor (prevent them saying it)?
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by ray245 »

https://www.dw.com/en/how-has-taiwan-ke ... a-52724523
How has Taiwan kept its coronavirus infection rate so low?

Taiwan's number of COVID-19 infections is currently below 50, despite the island's proximity to the outbreak's epicenter on mainland China. Experts say early intervention has helped stop a public health crisis.

More than two months after a new virulent coronavirus emerged from the Chinese city of Wuhan, more than 100,000 people in dozens of countries around the world have been infected.

The COVID-19 infection, however, has largely spared Taiwan, despite the island's relative proximity to the virus's epicenter.

When the outbreak first started in January, some experts predicted that Taiwan would have the highest number of cases outside of mainland China.

Read more: Coronavirus latest: Germany rules out border closures

However, while mainland China has had over 80,000 COVID-19 cases to date, Taiwan has kept its number of confirmed cases below 50. Some international health experts credit this to Taiwan's quick preparation and early intervention.

Dr. Jason Wang, a public health policy expert at Stanford University in the US, said that Taiwan recognized the potential scale of the crisis early, and was able to stay ahead of the outbreak.

"Taiwan established the National Health Command Center (NHCC) after the SARS epidemic in 2002 and 2003. That was in preparation for the next crisis," said Wang, adding that the NHCC integrates data and allows experts to work together.

Taiwan took early action

Taiwan's government introduced a travel ban on visitors from China, Hong Kong and Macau soon after the number of coronavirus cases began to rise in mainland China. Additionally, the government implemented a ban on exporting surgical masks, ensuring a stockpile in Taiwan.

Wang said that the introduction of public health laws gave the Taiwanese government additional power to allocate resources.

"The Taiwanese government integrated data from national health insurance with immigration and customs data," Wang said. "This has allowed frontline medical personnel to identify suspected patients after examining their travel histories."

The Taiwanese government also developed a program that has allowed people to report travel histories and symptoms of illness by scanning a QR code when they arrive in Taiwan.

Travelers then receive a text message with their health status, allowing customs officers to skip low risk passengers and focus on passengers with a high COVID-19 infection risk.

"There are a lot of things that the Taiwanese government was able to do with new technology, and these practices allow them to triage people properly and follow up with appropriate care," Wang said.

The public's willingness to follow government regulations has also helped Taiwanese officials respond to the coronavirus outbreak.

"Most Taiwanese experienced hardship and interruption during the SARS epidemic, so the memory is still fresh. It helps to foster a sense of community," said Dr. Chunhuei Chi, a public health professor at the Oregon State University in the US.

"They know that they are in this together and that makes them willing to comply with the measures rolled out by the government."

Taiwan's medical research

Chi added that Taiwan has invested in its biomedical research capacity over the last few decades and research teams have been working to mass-produce a rapid diagnostic test for COIVD-19.

Last Sunday, a research team at Taiwan's Academia Sinica developed antibodies that can identify the protein that causes the coronavirus. They aim to produce a new rapid test for the coronavirus that can shorten the time frame for diagnosis to 20 minutes.

The lead researcher of the team, Dr. Yang An-Suei, said on March 8 that the next step for the team is to validate the product before rolling out a rapid test kit in Taiwan.

Read more: Coronavirus: Who is particularly at risk and why?

And although Beijing continues to block Taiwan from rejoining the World Health Organization (WHO), public health expert Wang said that Taiwan continues to share its experience in combating the coronavirus outbreak with other countries.

"Taiwan has been sharing their epidemic prevention strategies with other countries through tele-conferences, while helping countries that lack advanced medical capabilities to process samples from patients," Wang said.

"In other words, the Taiwanese government has been actively using the topic of public health to engage with other countries."

Read more: Opinion: Are we facing a coronavirus epidemic or pandemic?

As for whether Taiwan can rejoin the WHO through its success in containing the spread of coronavirus, Wang thinks it is an issue that WHO rather than Taiwan should consider.

"The WHO should know that inclusiveness is the key to combating a global pandemic, and if it is ignoring certain pockets in the world, then that is not good," Wang said.
So essentially yes, a democratic country can control the virus without devolving into authoritarianism. The virus does not care about what form of government you have, as long as your government is pro-active and competent enough to stop its spread.

Once the virus is under control, Taiwan is now re-opening schools and things has gotten back to normal.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by MKSheppard »

Princess Cruises announced that it is suspending its global operations for 60 days amid the coronavirus pandemic that has already forced two of its ships' passengers into quarantine.

All operations will be suspended March 12 to May 10 according to a statement from the cruise line
From Twitter
The Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care just published the most extraordinary medical document I’ve ever seen.

To help people from Germany to America understand what we’re about to face, I am publishing translated extracts here.

[Thread.]

— Yascha Mounk (@Yascha_Mounk) March 11, 2020
http://www.siaarti.it/SiteAssets/News/C ... linica.pdf
The Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care just published the most extraordinary medical document I’ve ever seen.

To help people from Germany to America understand what we’re about to face, I am publishing translated extracts here.

[Thread.]

Background:

A week ago, Italy had so few cases of corona that it could give each stricken patient high-quality care.

Today, some hospitals are so overwhelmed that they simply cannot treat every patient. They are starting to do wartime triage.

Here’s the guidance for that.
"It may be necessary to establish criteria of access to intensive care not just on the basis of clinical appropriateness but inspired by the most consensual criteria regarding distributive justice and the appropriate allocation of limited health resources."

"This scenario is substantially comparable to the field of 'catastrophe medicine,' for which ethical reflection has over time stipulated many concrete guidelines for doctors and nurses facing difficult choices."

"In a context of grave shortage of medical resources, the allocation criteria need to guarantee that those patients with the highest chance of therapeutic success will retain access to intensive care.

It's a matter of giving priority to 'the highest hope of life and survival.'"
Recommendations:

1) The extraordinary criteria of admission and discharge are flexible and can be adapted in accordance with the local availability of resources.

These criteria apply to all patients in intensive care, not just those infected with CoVid-19.

2) "Allocation is a very complex and delicate choice. […]

The foreseeable increase in mortality for clinical conditions not linked to the current epidemic due to the reduction of chirurgical activity and the scarcity of resources needs to be taken into consideration."

3) "It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care.

This is not a value judgments but a way to provide extremely scarce resources to those who have the highest likelihood of survival and could enjoy the largest number of life-years saved."
"This is informed by the principle of maximizing benefits for the largest number.

In case of a total saturation of resources, maintaining the criterion of 'first come, first served' would amount to a decision to exclude late-arriving patients from access to intensive care."

4) "In addition to age, the presence of comorbidities needs to be carefully evaluated. It is conceivable that what might be a relatively short treatment course in healthier people could be longer and more resource-consuming in the case of older or more fragile patients."
"For patients for whom access to intensive care is judged inappropriate, the decision to posit a ceiling of care nevertheless needs to be explained, communicated, and documented."
I spent many years sitting in seminar rooms thinking about questions of distributive justice.

Let me be honest: It’s left me not one bit wiser about what to do in these kinds of dramatic circumstances. So I don’t don’t mean to pass judgment on the contents of this document.
BUT here’s the point I do want everyone to take away from this:

Doctors in America will likely be faced with similarly heartbreaking dilemmas very soon.

But we can avoid that if we:.

* Start engaging in extreme forms of social distancing
* Radically expand ICU capacities
The moral choices involved in figuring out who gets care when hospitals do not have the resources to treat all critical patients are heart-breaking.

But the moral choices involved in doing what we can today to avert that situation are straightforward.

Cancel everything now.
Here is the full document.

(Undoubtedly imperfect) translation of it is by me.

[End.]
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by Jub »

All major North American sports leagues have suspended their seasons more-or-less indefinitely due to concerns about Covid-19.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

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Jub wrote: 2020-03-12 03:54pm All major North American sports leagues have suspended their seasons more-or-less indefinitely due to concerns about Covid-19.
Some Yankee fans on Reddit are taking this as a positive, in that it'll give more time for Stanton et al to recover.

I just wanted to see people utterly jeer the Houston Asterisks.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by bilateralrope »

Donald Trump met Brazilian political aide with coronavirus, Justin Trudeau in isolation with ill wife
The Brazilian President's communications director, who was recently pictured with Donald Trump, has tested positive for coronavirus, while the Canadian Prime Minister has gone into self-isolation.

A statement from Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's office has confirmed aide Fabio Wajngarten has the potentially deadly coronavirus COVID-19 and that measures were being put in place to ensure Bolsonaro remained healthy. While recently in Florida, Bolsonaro said coronavirus was not "all the mainstream media makes it out to be".

Bolsonario is now being monitored for the virus.

But the Brazilian President is not the only high-profile politician Wajngarten has come into contact with. While he was in Flordia with Bolsonaro, the aide was pictured standing beside US President Trump and Vice-President Mike Pence.

According to CNN, Trump, who hasn't been tested for coronavirus, isn't concerned. He previously came into contact with US Representative Doug Collins at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). Collins has self-isolated after meeting someone at CPAC with the virus.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his wife Sophie are in self-isolation after she came down with flu-like symptoms and was tested for coronavirus, according to an official statement.

The 48-year-old Liberal leader is showing no symptoms and will continue to work from home until the results of his wife's test come in, the statement said.

However, face-to-face meetings with provincial premiers scheduled for Thursday and Friday (local time) will instead be held by phone.

"Having recently returned from a speaking engagement in London, UK, the Prime Minister's wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau began exhibiting mild flu-like symptoms including a low fever late last night," the statement from the prime minister's office read.

"She immediately sought medical advice, and is being tested for the COVID-19 virus. She is self-isolating at home awaiting test results, and her symptoms have since subsided."

The statement does not mention whether their three children are staying home as well.

Newshub./Reuters
I wonder what it's going to take to get Trump tested.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by TimothyC »

Gov. DeWine has issued new orders for the State of Ohio.

Public Gatherings of 100 or more people excluding places such as grocery stores and restaurants where people are more than an arms reach apart in regular use (but not convention spaces or cafeterias) , transit, religious gatherings, or other protected First Amendment gatherings.

All Ohio K-12 schools (public, private, charter) will be on spring break from Monday March Fifteenth through Friday April Third.

Sometime in the next few days, new regulations to stop all nursing home and state psychiatric hospital visitation will be issued, and all employees will have temperature monitored.

Elections will be held as planned on Tuesday March Seventeenth.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by MKSheppard »

Maryland just closed all schools for two weeks following Friday
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by MKSheppard »

Note: Bolsonaro confirmed with Covid. First Latin American president infected.

.....

Ojo: Bolsonaro confirmado con Covid. Primer presidente latinoamericano infectado.

— Víctor Hugo Michel (@vhmichel) March 12, 2020
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by MKSheppard »

It's actually Bolsonaro's secretary who's infected, Bolsonario is now under monitoring as a potential infectee.

Meanwhile elsewhere:

Norway's Prime Minister and Minister of health opened a press conference on new anti-corona measures at 1400 local time. This to announce new, more severe measures against spread of Covid-19, starting at 1800 today local time and for 14 days:
  • All kindergardens, schools 1-12, colleges and universities to be closed down.
  • Leaders of kindergardens and schools are nonetheless instructed to provide necessary care for children of health staff and others with functions critical to society, so that they can keep working.
  • Number of paid sick days for staying with sick children increased.
  • All cultural and sports events and all organised sports to be banned.
  • All hospitality business to be closed except work cafeterias and other venues where food is served, where visitors are able to mainain a spacing of at least 1 meter/3.3 feet. Buffet serving is banned.
  • All business offering hair dressing services, skin care, massage, tattoos, piercing, etc. to be closed.
  • All public pools to be closed.
  • Grocery stores and other retail businesses will remain open. Hoarding is not necessary.
  • Public tranportation will continue. This is to enable continued travel to and from work for persons in functions critical to society.
  • People are asked to not travel, unless it is strictly necessary
  • All health staff working with patients banned from travelling outside the country, until at least the end of april 2020. For those who lose money due to tickets they can't use, expenses will be covered.
  • People are encouraged not to visit persons in institutions with vulnerable groups (elderly, psychiatric care, prisons, etc.)
  • All health institutions to institute restrictions to visits and admissions control. Persons considered to be potentially infected to be turned away from visiting any and all health institutions.
  • All arriving to Norway from outside the Nordic countries required to maintain quarantine at home. This requirement is made retrocative for arrivals since February 27th.
Prime minister describes the new measures as the strongest and most invasive to be introduced in Norway in peace time (i.e. since WW2).
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by ray245 »

I am rather annoyed with the British government to stop expanding the testing of cases. As other countries has shown, you can expand your testing capabilities, and it helps to control the spread of the virus. The UK giving up on testing comes across as rather abhorrent to me.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by MKSheppard »

Shitshow from JetBlue:

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/2020 ... rities-say
"WEST PALM BEACH — A JetBlue plane and a concourse at Palm Beach International Airport were scrubbed down Thursday morning after a flight from New York landed Wednesday night carrying a passenger who’d been infected with coronavirus, the airport confirmed.

“The airport is safe. The airport is clean. There’s no interruption to operations,” airport spokeswoman Lacy Larson told The Palm Beach Post on Thursday morning. Another passenger who’d been on JetBlue 253, a nonstop flight from JFK International Airport, told The Post on Thursday that the ill person, an older man from Long Island who was traveling with his wife, had been tested before he left and learned in mid-flight that the results had come back positive.

Larson said both Palm Beach County Fire-Rescue and officials of the Florida Department of Health for Palm Beach County met the plane when it arrived on time at 8:37 p.m. County health officials followed all guidelines “for a COVID-19 positive patient,” Palm Beach County Fire-Rescue said overnight.

Larson said JetBlue bypassed its usual gate at Concourse C and went instead to Concourse A, currently used only by Bahamasair. She said the 109 passengers and a crew of five on the JetBlue flight stayed on the plane for at least two hours before coming off, where they were directly interviewed by Dr. Alina Alonso, the county’s health director. Palm Beach County Fire-Rescue said passengers were told to call the health department if they had any “medical concerns.” Because PBIA is not a connection hub, and because of the late hour of the arrival, it’s unlikely someone on the plane was connecting to another flight that night, Larson said. Concourse A was shut down Wednesday night and was being “cleaned and sterilized,” Larson said. She said Bahamasair’s first flight is an arrival at mid-morning and, if necessary, it would use a gate at Concourse B."
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by Broomstick »

bilateralrope wrote: 2020-03-12 04:17pm I wonder what it's going to take to get Trump tested.
Trump face-planting on national TV.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

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Tufts is canceling all elective procedures and rescheduling elective/discretionary clinical care appointments. They cite an “impending burden” on the healthcare system.

....

SUPREME COURT BUILDING TO CLOSE TO PUBLIC UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

........
President Trump said on Thursday that he could restrict domestic travel to regions of the United States where the coronavirus becomes "too hot."

Asked by a reporter in the Oval Office whether he was considering limits on travel inside the country to hard-hit states like Washington or California, Mr. Trump said the subject had not yet been discussed, before adding: "Is it a possibility? Yes, if somebody gets a little bit out of control, if an area gets too hot."

He did not elaborate, except to say that a containment zone New York state had imposed around the city of New Rochelle was "good."
.....

The US District Court in Massachusetts has continued (paused) all jury trials scheduled to begin before April 27, 2020 (FOLLOWED BY CONNECTICUT)

...

Ali Akbar Velayati, top foreign policy adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, tests positive for coronavirus

.......

NEW: Pennsylvania Governor Wolf closes all schools, community centers, gyms, and entertainment venues in Montgomery County due to coronavirus - WPVI

........

Fred Olsen Cruise Lines announces 5 people have tested positive for coronavirus on its ship Braemar. The cruise is not being allowed to dock in Barbados and is heading toward the Bahamas (its flag state).

.........

French President Macron says schools and universities across the country will be closed from Monday

.......

Turkey has closed all schools for 1 week and universities for 3 weeks. Classes will be conducted online

......

Ohio expects the peak for the virus to hit here possibly in mid April or as late as mid-May or later.

....
Governor Mike DeWine (Ohio)
@GovMikeDeWine
: I know it is hard to understand #COVID19 since we can't see it, but we know that 1% of our population is carrying this virus today -- that's over 100,000 people.
....

Boston Marathon postponed until later this year.

......

Maryland governor activates National Guard in case needed for coronavirus measures. Maryland also bans events of over 250 people. Maryland closes all public schools for 2 weeks starting Monday 3/16

...

NCAA cancels March Madness.

....

Disneyland in CA closing as of Friday because of coronavirus. Only 4th time in history that operations have been fully suspended: 9/11, Northridge quake, nat'l day of mourning after JFK assassination

......

Catalonia orders lockdown of Igualada and several other municipalities in northeast Spain due to coronavirus. After midnight, no one will be able to leave Igualada, Santa Margarida de Montbui, Òdena and Vilanova del Camí. More than 65,000 people live in this area.

.......

Florida Department of Correction has suspended family visitation for all correctional institutions and the one prison indefinitely.
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by mr friendly guy »

MKSheppard wrote: 2020-03-12 02:49pm
3) "It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care.

This is not a value judgments but a way to provide extremely scarce resources to those who have the highest likelihood of survival and could enjoy the largest number of life-years saved."
"This is informed by the principle of maximizing benefits for the largest number.
Thanks for the find Shep.

This seems to be the thinking some doctors I have met have in Australia more than a decade ago when we had less ICU meds in the hospitals I worked at. A young person is more likely to survive than an older person, so the treatment is more likely to succeed we will use it. If its not, then we are just prolonging suffering and its palliation time. The question thats always hard is, how do we know its not going to work in this specific case if we don't even try.

I am not sure what the attitude of Italians in Italy are like, but my anecdotal evidence in Australia where we have a large Italian population, is that they are very protective of their relatives and wants a lot done, whereas some Australians (from Anglosphere) might be more willing to accept that an old relative has lived a good life and its time to let them go peacefully.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by MKSheppard »

Oh dear. So with Maryland schools shut down; via another forum:
I know one of the deputy directors of the Maryland Dept of Public Safety . According to him almost 80% of the corrections officers in the state are female and nearly 2/3s are single mothers....Many of them will need to be home because schools are closed and they don't have childcare. They won't have enough corrections officers to staff the prisons...
I guess, 24-7 lockdown beginning now?
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by J »

Ontario schools to remain closed for 2 weeks after March break. This is not going to end well. It's not the 1950s where one of the parents can stay at home to take care of the kids, most kids will end up in some kind of daycare where they'll be spreading the disease just as effectively as they would if they were in school.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by mr friendly guy »

J wrote: 2020-03-12 08:05pm Ontario schools to remain closed for 2 weeks after March break. This is not going to end well. It's not the 1950s where one of the parents can stay at home to take care of the kids, most kids will end up in some kind of daycare where they'll be spreading the disease just as effectively as they would if they were in school.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by Broomstick »

Chicago has also banned large gatherings (1,000 people, I think) and has asked that all over 250 people be cancelled.

Spend 8.5 hours running a cash register at a Big Box store (no, not Wal-Mart). The crowds were like the week before Christmas crossed with prepping for a blizzard. A few nay-sayers and deniers, but instead of being dismissive the MAGA crowd were all taking things seriously now.

Thank Og folks were mostly patient and polite. One of our sister-stores had a fist-fight break out.

By 3-4pm yesterday we had run entirely out of toilet paper. We got an entire semi-truckload in last night. An entire semi-trailer of nothing but toilet paper. We expected to run out again tonight.

Hey, it's not that we're hiding it or don't want people to have it - if we have it, it is on the shelf. But if it's not on the shelf no, we don't have it and no, at this point we don't know when we're getting more or how much. It's all on order, along with hand sanitizer, wipes, and all that other stuff you folks want. When we get it we will stock it. Hell, it won't just be on the shelf we'll bring out the pallets as they come in and let you have it.

Lots of canned goods going out, too, and pasta. Well, I suppose if people need to prepare then it's good that they are.

Based on Italy closing everything but the banks, pharmacies, and grocery stores.... we aren't expecting a break. Crazy-busy and not one bit of our job can be done from home. We get to see hundreds - 500-700 we figured out one Christmas season - of people daily. Limit public contact? It is to laugh.

And we still don't get paid sick leave. No one. Not the peons and not the management. It's "industry standard". :roll:
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by MKSheppard »

I did the numbers for my County, and not good:

Back on 26 February, the American Hospital Association had a meeting based off the initial
information coming out of South Korea (at the time); and they estimated the following data in
the "What healthcare leaders need to know: Preparing for the COVID-19 presentation"

This data was used for a briefing a few days ago (on 10 March) of Nebraska State Senators by
Dr. Chris Kratochvil of University of Nebraska Medical Center and Nebraska Public Health
Director Dr. Gary Anthone.

According to Dr. Anthone, the figure of 480,000 US deaths is a mathematical assumption
inherent in the modelling of the disease as a simple exponential function. It doesn’t take into
account any intervention to prevent spread of the disease such as quarantines.

My county has a population of about 1~ million and if we use the AHA estimates on their slide:

Population 1,000,000
Attack Rate 30% of population
Cases 300,000
Hospitalizations 15,000 -- 5% of all cases
ICU Care 6,000 -- 2% of all cases
Ventilation 3,000 -- 1% of all cases
Fatalities 1,500 -- 0.5% of all cases


A more realistic estimate based on quarantine/self-limiting measures lowering the attack rate
to about 3% of the population would be:

Population 1,000,000
Attack Rate 3% of population
Cases 30,000
Hospitalizations 1,500 -- 5% of all cases
ICU Care 600 -- 2% of all cases
Ventilation 300 -- 1% of all cases
Fatalities 150 -- 0.5% of all cases


This assumes that everyone gets prompt treatment.

According to the Maryland Health Care Commission’s Annual Report on Selected
Maryland Acute Care and Special Hospital Services - Fiscal Year 2018, Montgomery has the
following hospital bed count (approximately):

Code: Select all

Hosp	Acute	ER	ICU	Total Beds
SGMC	266	64	28	358
WAH	204	26	26	256
HC-G	72	14	8	94
HC	403	64	46	513
MGH	115	39	12	166
SH	230	41	24	295
Total	1,290	248	144	1,682
The amount of people needing ICU care in the 3% of population attack scenario would be more
than four times the amount of ICU beds that exist in Montgomery.

There’s also the presence of large retirement communities such as Leisure World and The
Village in Montgomery County, where the population is extremely susceptible to COVID due to
advanced age and other co-morbidity factors (diabetes, obesity, etc).

Currently in Italy, they are triaging COVID patients – if you’re over 65 years or you have a
serious co-morbidity (diabetes, morbidly obese), you WILL NOT be mechanically ventilated. The
ventilators are reserved for younger (40-50 y/o) patients with no co-morbidities.
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by mr friendly guy »

And Ireland also implements a lockdown.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 96626.html
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Re: The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

Post by Jub »

Broomstick wrote: 2020-03-12 09:10pm Chicago has also banned large gatherings (1,000 people, I think) and has asked that all over 250 people be cancelled.

Spend 8.5 hours running a cash register at a Big Box store (no, not Wal-Mart). The crowds were like the week before Christmas crossed with prepping for a blizzard. A few nay-sayers and deniers, but instead of being dismissive the MAGA crowd were all taking things seriously now.

Thank Og folks were mostly patient and polite. One of our sister-stores had a fist-fight break out.

By 3-4pm yesterday we had run entirely out of toilet paper. We got an entire semi-truckload in last night. An entire semi-trailer of nothing but toilet paper. We expected to run out again tonight.

Hey, it's not that we're hiding it or don't want people to have it - if we have it, it is on the shelf. But if it's not on the shelf no, we don't have it and no, at this point we don't know when we're getting more or how much. It's all on order, along with hand sanitizer, wipes, and all that other stuff you folks want. When we get it we will stock it. Hell, it won't just be on the shelf we'll bring out the pallets as they come in and let you have it.

Lots of canned goods going out, too, and pasta. Well, I suppose if people need to prepare then it's good that they are.

Based on Italy closing everything but the banks, pharmacies, and grocery stores.... we aren't expecting a break. Crazy-busy and not one bit of our job can be done from home. We get to see hundreds - 500-700 we figured out one Christmas season - of people daily. Limit public contact? It is to laugh.

And we still don't get paid sick leave. No one. Not the peons and not the management. It's "industry standard". :roll:
As a point of contrast, my company has waived the usual requirements for taking a Leave of Absence from work for anybody who feels they need it. They've advised that we don't wear masks at this time but will allow employees to wear them to work if we wish to do so. We don't have paid leave for those trying to avoid it or for part-time staff sick with anything aside from Covid-19, so it's not perfect.

The government has also waived the usual requirements for getting Employment Insurance for anybody forced into quarantine.
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