SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

[Gandalf]

Wasn't that the argument for Clinton, a pragmatic electable candidate as opposed to someone who might aim for something?

[Mr Bean]

Wasn't that the argument for Clinton, a pragmatic electable candidate as opposed to someone who might aim for something?

Ahh yes the pragmatic argument never mind this was Hillary Clinton the person who right wing media had spent 24 years demonizing accusing her of everything from tax evasion and insider trading to the murder of Vince Foster oh yes to the person who had to resign in what I thought was disgrace after Benghazi.

Only in the echo chamber was she "electable", out in the real world she was an incredibly polarizing figure with almost three decades of scandal after scandal most of which were invented.

[His Divine Shadow]

And Biden, how electable is this guy in a general? I get that people won't vote trump to spite him, but young people won't just vote instead is what I am seeing. The only way to get those people to vote is basically to do something really drastic and unlikely, like Biden promising M4A and having Sanders are VP. I think that's a pretty unlikely scenario... But I can't see anything else that could possibly unite the two camps.

[Mr Bean]

And Biden, how electable is this guy in a general? I get that people won't vote trump to spite him, but young people won't just vote instead is what I am seeing. The only way to get those people to vote is basically to do something really drastic and unlikely, like Biden promising M4A and having Sanders are VP. I think that's a pretty unlikely scenario... But I can't see anything else that could possibly unite the two camps.

Female VP is going to be the obvious choice but hey maybe they will put Hillary Clinton on the ticket for maximum irony.

[Ace Pace]

And Biden, how electable is this guy in a general? I get that people won't vote trump to spite him, but young people won't just vote instead is what I am seeing. The only way to get those people to vote is basically to do something really drastic and unlikely, like Biden promising M4A and having Sanders are VP. I think that's a pretty unlikely scenario... But I can't see anything else that could possibly unite the two camps.

Since young people didn't really turn out in the primary, I don't see why they'd be what would sink Biden in a general election. Young people are important for crowd appeal but they seem to not matter for votes.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

And Biden, how electable is this guy in a general? I get that people won't vote trump to spite him, but young people won't just vote instead is what I am seeing. The only way to get those people to vote is basically to do something really drastic and unlikely, like Biden promising M4A and having Sanders are VP. I think that's a pretty unlikely scenario... But I can't see anything else that could possibly unite the two camps.

Against a Republican empty suit, it's probably a coin-flip. He has a long history of unforced errors. Against Donald Trump ... eh. Donald Trump's entire presidency is an unforced error, so Biden probably has a better shot against him than he would against, say, Mitt Romney who is a quintessential Republican empty suit.

As for young people; they usually stay home. It's why the rest of the field lined up behind Biden, when he proved he can turn out the people who do vote (although an argument can be made that this isn't an ideal metric since a significant portion of the traditional Democratic base is locked up in solid red states where they are electorally irrelevant.) The other guy didn't really turn young voters out in unusually large numbers; those that did turn out just voted for him in larger numbers than they did for other candidates.

And, finally, Bernie Sanders is the last guy Biden would pick for VP. Sanders' campaign was based on a pretty open hostility towards the establishment. In the vein of not doing anything to scare center-right and Trump-skeptical voters, I'd venture that the VP pick is going to be a moderate, probably someone who's both climbed an establishment-friendly political career ladder, is from a region Biden can't afford to lose in November, ideally lacks Biden's penchant for gaffes, and isn't old enough to have wrestled saber-toothed cats.

[His Divine Shadow]

When I meant young, I didn't just mean 18 year olds and college kids. But people who are getting into the 40s now, i.e. millennials. Not an unimportant age group and one where Bernie supporters are concentrated and a block that does vote. Biden looks like a goner already and I saw in the US news that pundits have prematurely gone into explaining their loss in the election. Even they don't seem to think they can win it.

Also Donald Trumps presidency isn't an unforced error or some blip that came out of nowhere. Trumpism and Trump is just the logical and reasonable conclusion of the economic and political changes that began with Reagan and they where coming as sure as the sun will set and rise the next day.

[Darth Yan]

That's why a lot of people didn't support Biden. He seems to think Trump's a blip rather than the end result

[Starglider]

I see The Atlantic is flooded with a dozen articles along the lines 'Trump's response to coronavirus is utterly awful and this will destroy his administration' this morning, but it seems like wishful thinking to me. Everyone rational and informed already knew Trump was an attrotiously ignorant image-obsessed man-child. Sure there will be a small pickup of people suddenly realising he is a con man, but this could easily be outweighed by even more scared, tribal, xenophobic boomers turning out to vote for the strongman who makes them feel safer.

[Elfdart]

If you're counting on a virus to defeat your opposition, you've already lost.

[Darth Yan]

I think Biden does have a chance. He said he’d use Warrens plan so he may be forced to adopt progressive policies

[Darth Yan]

The debate ended. By all accounts Biden performed reasonably well. He certainly didn't seem senile in any case and it's looking like he has been forced to put on a show of adopting progressive policies

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

The debate ended. By all accounts Biden performed reasonably well. He certainly didn't seem senile in any case and it's looking like he has been forced to put on a show of adopting progressive policies

Yes, the debate was a thing that happened. Biden came into it being able to afford any debate performance short of being struck down by the Almighty on national television, and Sanders basically needed Biden to be struck down by the Almighty on national television.

However, thanks to coronavirus, Zeus's next order of thunderbolts is currently backordered. So, instead, Biden had an above-average (for him) debate performance, while Bernie Sanders stayed on-message and pushed Biden leftward on his pet issues, and did nothing that will prevent Biden from getting eleventy-million delegates more tomorrow. Especially since the only people paying attention at this point are armchair pundits and other political junkies. Everyone else is looking up DIY hand sanitizer recipes on Pinterest while getting into fist-fights over the last roll of toilet paper.

The most significant thing to come from the debates is that Biden promised to select a female running mate, and appoint a black woman onto the Supreme Court, if elected; so ... hooray for virtue-signaling tokenism? Although it may also be an attempt to address the fact that a racially and gender-diverse primary field has coalesced into ... an old white guy running against another old white guy (and, virtually-unknown, comedy candidate Tulsi Gabbard.)

And it is true that the Democratic primary field has tracked leftward this season which, in principle, will make it harder (for better or for worse) for Joe Biden to track to center for the general election.

[The Romulan Republic]

The debate ended. By all accounts Biden performed reasonably well. He certainly didn't seem senile in any case and it's looking like he has been forced to put on a show of adopting progressive policies

Yes, the debate was a thing that happened. Biden came into it being able to afford any debate performance short of being struck down by the Almighty on national television, and Sanders basically needed Biden to be struck down by the Almighty on national television.

However, thanks to coronavirus, Zeus's next order of thunderbolts is currently backordered. So, instead, Biden had an above-average (for him) debate performance, while Bernie Sanders stayed on-message and pushed Biden leftward on his pet issues, and did nothing that will prevent Biden from getting eleventy-million delegates more tomorrow. Especially since the only people paying attention at this point are armchair pundits and other political junkies. Everyone else is looking up DIY hand sanitizer recipes on Pinterest while getting into fist-fights over the last roll of toilet paper.

Its theoretically possible Joe Biden won't be the nominee, but only in the event of something truly calamitous and unpredictable. So the safe assumption at this point is that Biden will be the nominee. Which means that it is our duty to support him as nominee.

I expect Bernie will stay in a while, trying to get as many delegates as he can and push Biden to the Left on policy, though perhaps a crushing loss on Tuesday might persuade him to drop out, especially with multiple states now postponing their primary due to coronavirus. I also expect he will be good to his word and endorse Biden come the convention. I do think that demands from Centrist media outlets that he drop out immediately won't do any good- they'll just feed a sense in many of his supporters that the "establishment" is bullying them out of the race.

I am curious as to what exactly will happen if so many primaries end up being cancelled that no one gets to the convention with a majority of delegates. In that case, I assume the delegates present, including super delegates, would decide it? In this case there'd be no "rigging", Biden would be the clear leader and the primaries would have been canceled due to legitimate public health concerns, but it would still be a bad look for a bunch of states to have no say in picking the nominee, and you know the Bernie or Busters (and Trump/the Kremlin) would make something out of it. So it might be best for Sanders to drop out and endorse sooner rather than later, in order to prevent that scenario.

The most significant thing to come from the debates is that Biden promised to select a female running mate, and appoint a black woman onto the Supreme Court, if elected; so ... hooray for virtue-signaling tokenism?

Because representation in government for anyone who isn't a white male is just "virtue-signaling tokenism".

Although it may also be an attempt to address the fact that a racially and gender-diverse primary field has coalesced into ... an old white guy running against another old white guy (and, virtually-unknown, comedy candidate Tulsi Gabbard.)

This is more like it.

Although, while we're talking about diversity, its worth noting the oft-ignored fact that Bernie Sanders remains the only Jewish person and indeed only (openly) non-Christian to win a Presidential primary contest in American history.

And it is true that the Democratic primary field has tracked leftward this season which, in principle, will make it harder (for better or for worse) for Joe Biden to track to center for the general election.

Joe Biden needs to tack to the Left if he wants enthusiastic turnout from progressives. Bernie Sanders may not be the nominee, but Sanders was the front-runner for a while until South Carolina, and he dominated the Latino and youth votes in multiple states- both demographics the Democrats need to turn out big time. He dominated and continues to dominate the millennial and post-millennial vote pretty much across the board- in short, the future of the party. In fact, in just the last few days, while everyone was getting accustomed to Joe Biden as the presumptive nominee, Bernie's win in California was officially confirmed, and he pulled off a win in the Northern Mariana Islands caucuses. With all of six delegates at stake, and all the news focussed on coronavirus, that won't do much to help his candidacy, but its a reminder that Bernie Sanders remains a popular candidate. He remains the most popular Senator in America. Moreover, as the sudden shift from Sanders to Biden after South Carolina shows, many of Biden's voters are not backing him because they're enthusiastically committed to him, or because they reject Sanders' ideas- they simply back Biden because they believe he has a better chance of winning. Polling shows IIRC that a lot of Sanders' policies are more popular than Sanders the candidate.

Ideally, Sanders supporters would recognize that their duty is to support the nominee regardless, and most will- but if Biden wants to turn out as much enthusiastic support as possible, he needs to actively reach out to progressives.

All the more so because turnout is going to be gutted by coronavirus, in all likelihood (presuming the disease continues or has a resurgence in the fall). And when turnout is low, the Right tends to win, because they're more motivated, on average, and in this case their Fuhrer will have no qualms about telling them to ignore health advisories if it benefits him, as we've already seen.

[The Romulan Republic]

Robert Reich's analysis of Joe Biden:

Friends,

Joe Biden is a perfect mouthpiece for wherever and whatever the conventional political wisdom is in the Democratic Party at any given time.

Years ago, when Biden voted for the Iraq war, for trade deals, and for debt collection, they reflected the conventional Democratic wisdom. But now that conventional Democratic wisdom has shifted leftward – due largely to Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren -- Biden has shifted, too.

He has shifted his position on free public college – from favoring tuition-free education only at two-year community colleges to supporting it at four-year public universities and colleges as well, for every student whose annual family income doesn’t exceed $125,000. (This was Bernie’s position several years ago.)

Biden also decided to support Elizabeth Warren’s proposal for making bankruptcy far less onerous for middle-class Americans, including making it available for former students facing onerous student-debt burdens and for people facing major medical debts. This marked a major change from the bankruptcy legislation Biden helped turn into law in 2005.

He has shifted slightly on Medicare for All -- now calling for a public option (which had been on the Left of the Obama-era conventional wisdom). He hasn't yet called for a Green New Deal, but I could imagine him doing so if he gets the nomination and if progressives pull the conventional Democratic wisdom to the Left.

If he becomes president, Biden will not lead any progressive charge. He won’t be a Lyndon Johnson or an FDR or Teddy Roosevelt. But to the extent progressives lead the charge and are successful in changing conventional Democratic wisdom, Biden will reliably follow.

RR

I hope that's true. It doesn't speak much for Biden's strength of character, he seems a man without vision, but a Not Trump seat warmer who will reflect the increasingly progressive bent of the party is probably the best we can hope for.

[The Romulan Republic]

https://rollingstone.com/politics/polit ... ms-965570/

Update: Former Vice President Joe Biden committed at the March 15th Democratic debate that his running mate would be a woman. His campaign confirmed the news in a tweet: “My running mate will be a woman.”

WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Joe Biden is close to all but securing the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination after comfortable victories on Tuesday in Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, and several other states. A question now looms over his candidacy: Who will Biden choose as his running mate?

Biden himself has dropped more than a few hints about who he’d want on the ticket with him since he entered the presidential race in early 2019. There’s Stacey Abrams of Georgia — a star in the Democratic party who was mentioned as a possible running mate for nearly all of the 2020 candidates. But there are other names on the list, including a pair of senators from the state of New Hampshire and even possibly former Deputy Attorney General and #resistance hero Sally Yates.

There will be tremendous pressure on Biden to choose a woman as his running mate after half a dozen women competed for the nomination but fell short. “There must be a woman on this ticket,” Cecile Richards, the former head of Planned Parenthood for America and founder of Supermajority, a new political advocacy group, told the New York Times this week. “What is really important to see is representation, a commitment to the issues that women care about and a commitment to do something about it.”

There are strong indications that Biden intends to do just that, judging by the names he’s given and other hints from Biden advisers. Here’s a quick rundown of everything we know so far about the type of person Biden might pick to be his running mate and who that candidate might be.

‘Simpatico’ with Biden’s vision for the country

In an interview on Monday night, Biden told MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell that the “most important thing” in choosing a vice-presidential candidate was someone who was “simpatico with me in terms of where I want to take the country.”

Biden referred back to his eight years as Barack Obama’s vice president as a model for his own choice. He said Obama effectively handed him 10 to 20 percent of the president’s portfolio and said to him, “Do it as if you’re president.” He told O’Donnell: “There is so much that lands on a president’s desk, and he or she can’t do it by themselves.”

In the MSNBC interview, Biden declined to name any potential candidates for the running-mate slot and noted it was presumptuous to be discussing what he’d want in a VP before securing the nomination. Still, he said the “first test” for a potential VP would be someone who shared his vision for the country. “We can disagree on tactic but not on strategy,” he said.

He did say there were “a number of women and African Americans as well” who met his criteria for a running mate. He also promised that his administration from vice president on down “is going to look like the country.”

Will it be Stacey Abrams?

On February 5th, 2019, Stacey Abrams — whom Rolling Stone recently profiled — gave the official Democratic response to President Trump’s State of the Union address to Congress. Within minutes of her finishing, Biden’s campaign tweeted that Abrams, who had lost her campaign for Georgia governor in 2018 by the narrowest of margins and amid accusations of fraud and voter suppression by her Republican opponent, had achieved “in a matter of minutes something Donald Trump failed to do in over an hour — to embrace and give voice to the spirit and core values that make America great.”

Stacey Abrams achieved in a matter of minutes something Donald Trump failed to do in over an hour — to embrace and give voice to the spirit and core values that make America great.

— Joe Biden (Text Join to 30330) (@JoeBiden) February 6, 2019

Biden had campaigned for Abrams in Georgia in 2018. And not long after Abrams’ State of the Union rebuttal, advisers to Biden sparked a cycle of rumors by floating the idea in Axios (where else?) of Biden “packaging his presidential campaign announcement with a pledge to choose Stacey Abrams as his vice president.”

By all indications, Abrams was not pleased with the suggestion. “What makes it particularly exploitative is that Biden couldn’t be bothered to endorse Stacey in the gubernatorial primary,” an Abrams adviser told BuzzFeed News. “Now he wants her to save his ass. That’s some serious entitlement.” (Biden did endorse Abrams for her general election.)

During an appearance soon afterward on The View, Abrams said she didn’t get into politics to “run for second place” but added that she was “open to a number of options right now, I’ve got plenty of options.” As for the presidential race, she added that “f I’m going to enter a primary, then I’m going to enter a primary. If I don’t enter a primary, my job is to make certain that the best Democrat becomes the nominee and whoever wins the primary, that we make sure that person gets elected in 2020.”

In August 2019, Abrams — who has made clear she wants to eventually run for president — said she remained open to serving as the Democratic nominee’s running mate. “I would be honored to be considered by any nominee,” she told the New York Times.

During a November 2019 town hall, Biden named Abrams — “the woman who should have been the governor of Georgia,” he called her — as one of his possible choices for VP. And just this month, at an event in Selma, Alabama, with Biden in the audience, Rev. Al Sharpton said “to our vice president — I’m talking about Stacey Abrams, not you Joe.” According to a HuffPost reporter in attendance, Biden laughed and mouthed the words “I know.”

In response to questions from Rolling Stone, an Abrams spokesman sent this statement: “Leader Abrams would be honored to be asked to join the ticket of the Democratic nominee. For now, she is focused on fighting voter suppression across the country and ensuring an accurate census. She will cast her personal vote along with fellow Georgians on March 24.”

Biden’s other choices

At that same November town hall, Biden named a few other potential running mates, all of them women who’d served in elected office or worked in the federal government.

He mentioned “the former assistant attorney general who got fired,” a reference to Sally Yates, the former deputy assistant general who was fired in 2017 for refusing to implement President Trump’s anti-immigrant executive order. He also named “the two senators from the state of New Hampshire,” Democrats Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan.

Spokeswomen for Yates, Hassan, and Shaheen did not respond to requests for comment.

In This Article: 2020 election, Joe Biden, Stacey Abrams

I think its the right thing to do to pick a woman of colour. And Stacey Abrams did make a national name for herself with her close-run (and likely stolen) race for governor in Georgia.

But I must point out that this makes the argument that Biden is electable with "moderates" and swing voters who would be put off by Bernie ring a little hollow. Because frankly? I doubt that a lot of those people will be any less put off by a black woman than by a Jewish socialist.

A more legitimate criticism of Abrams is that she has never served in a national level office, elected or appointed, nor as a state governor or mayor of a major city, nor in any office so far as I can tell other than state legislator. She has some experience in business and law, albeit nothing that seems especially pertinent to the Presidency, but if she ran for President with that resume, she'd be widely attacked as lacking sufficient experience for the office- and the primary role of the Vice President, constitutionally, is to be able to take over as President. One can argue that the importance of "experience" is overrated, of course- that no one can be truly prepared for the Presidency, and that character, and who one surrounds themselves with, is more important than how many high offices they've held. And I think that that's a fair point. But it would be a notably sparse resume for someone who may very well have to step in for the aging Biden sooner rather than later.

I'll defend it as a moral decision, even if I feel that there would be stronger candidates who are women of colour (Kamala Harris comes immediately to mind), but it makes no sense to me from a campaign that's been built on its candidate's experience, and on putting practicality over idealism.

[loomer]

If he picks Harris, it'll completely alienate the progressive limb of the party.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

If he picks Harris, it'll completely alienate the progressive limb of the party.

I doubt Biden would pick Harris as his running mate. If there's a post I'd put money on Biden picking Harris for, it's Attorney General; with an eye on whenever Ruth Bader Ginsburg finally kicks the bucket, so he can nominate Harris to the Supreme Court.

I would also doubt that Biden would choose Stacey Abrams as his running mate for the reasons TRR already mentioned (i.e. her lack of experience ... she's never held statewide office.)

Biden wouldn't pick Elizabeth Warren because she's A) progressive (he's gone on record as stating that he wants a running mate that shares his political alignment) and B) old.

I'm not sure Biden would pick Amy Klobuchar. Yes, she's midwestern, she's centrist, and she's not 70,000 years old. On the other hand, she committed the unforced error of nearly saying that she would be Biden's running mate, before correcting herself. She's been considerably more circumspect in recent days, so there's a fair chance she might've own-goaled herself out of the running.

Other names I've heard tossed around, in no particular order: Senators Catherine Cortez Masto,Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin, Kirsten Gillibrand, Jeanne Shaheen, and Maggie Hassan. Congresswoman Val Demings. Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo, and New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.

Of course, there's every chance that Joe Biden gets sidelined by the coronavirus and Bernie Sanders ends up as the nominee. Who would he pick as his running mate?

[The Romulan Republic]

If he picks Harris, it'll completely alienate the progressive limb of the party.

I doubt Biden would pick Harris as his running mate. If there's a post I'd put money on Biden picking Harris for, it's Attorney General; with an eye on whenever Ruth Bader Ginsburg finally kicks the bucket, so he can nominate Harris to the Supreme Court.

I would also doubt that Biden would choose Stacey Abrams as his running mate for the reasons TRR already mentioned (i.e. her lack of experience ... she's never held statewide office.)

Biden wouldn't pick Elizabeth Warren because she's A) progressive (he's gone on record as stating that he wants a running mate that shares his political alignment) and B) old.

I'm not sure Biden would pick Amy Klobuchar. Yes, she's midwestern, she's centrist, and she's not 70,000 years old. On the other hand, she committed the unforced error of nearly saying that she would be Biden's running mate, before correcting herself. She's been considerably more circumspect in recent days, so there's a fair chance she might've own-goaled herself out of the running.

Other names I've heard tossed around, in no particular order: Senators Catherine Cortez Masto,Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin, Kirsten Gillibrand, Jeanne Shaheen, and Maggie Hassan. Congresswoman Val Demings. Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo, and New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.

Of course, there's every chance that Joe Biden gets sidelined by the coronavirus and Bernie Sanders ends up as the nominee. Who would he pick as his running mate?

I have a hard time seeing the DNC pick Bernie even if he was the leading candidate not dead or in hospital. But that aside...

A few months ago, the obvious answer, to the point of being very nearly a sure thing, would have been Elizabeth Warren. After their little feud, its a lot less likely.

If they want a woman of colour on the ticket, well, Nina Turner has been bandied about, but she has the same issues with lack of high-level experience as Stacey Abrams I believe. Corey Booker might be an option- though he endorsed Biden, he's reportedly friendly with Bernie, a highly charismatic speaker, endorsed Medicare For All, and would add racial diversity to the ticket. But I think for image reasons Bernie really needs to pick a woman. There are a lot of people who would scream "Bernie Bros" if he didn't.

God Damn, though, I wish AOC were a few years older. She'd be fucking perfect.

[The Romulan Republic]

If he picks Harris, it'll completely alienate the progressive limb of the party.

I'd be perhaps more concerned with what it would do to the black turnout, given her "tough on crime" record. She has a stronger resume than Abrams, which is why I mentioned her, but as usual, the trade off for a longer resume is more baggage.

[Darth Yan]

If he picks Harris, it'll completely alienate the progressive limb of the party.

Indeed. A lot of Kamela supporters are still salty at Lara Bazelon for laying out her flaws

[Darth Yan]

Personally I think Bernie can go to the grave satisfied. He might not be president but he forced the democrats to actually start accepting progressive ideas and if history shows anything the genie can't be put in the bottle

[Darth Yan]

If he picks Harris, it'll completely alienate the progressive limb of the party.

I'd be perhaps more concerned with what it would do to the black turnout, given her "tough on crime" record. She has a stronger resume than Abrams, which is why I mentioned her, but as usual, the trade off for a longer resume is more baggage.

I mentioned the Kevin Cooper Case a while back (basically he was asking for a do over of testing since there's disturbingly compelling proof that the police tampered with DNA to keep him on death row). Kamela ignored it while AG (she had the authority to authorize testing) but reversed her stance when Nick Kristof called her out on it. Testing's in the process of being redone and from what I've seen the initial results seem good for Cooper, so if it happens at a certain point she's absolutely screwed

[Darth Yan]

Edit: Triple post. Inappropriate

[The Romulan Republic]

Personally I think Bernie can go to the grave satisfied. He might not be president but he forced the democrats to actually start accepting progressive ideas and if history shows anything the genie can't be put in the bottle

Well he ain't in the grave yet. Part of the reason he's staying in his likely to keep the pressure on Biden to adopt a more progressive platform.

I expect he'll also use his Senate seat to keep the pressure on Joe to support progressive policy, if Joe is elected.