The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

[MKSheppard]

Are you even capable of posting anything but smug Whataboutism about how the West are the REAL bad guys?

[ray245]

But...but my freedom of speech.

Yeah, this is a real issue, but...

Are you even capable of posting anything but smug Whataboutism about how the West are the REAL bad guys?

It's kind the same issue experienced in China. It's always the lower level/local authorities and administrators that tends to be the ones trying to gag doctors and healthcare workers. Freedom of speech does not stop lower level admins from being assholes trying to cover their own short-term self-interest.

When their job is to keep things running as smoothly as possible, and if failing at that, pretend things are running as smoothly as possible, then you're not going to recruit people good at handling things when things spiral out of control.

[The Romulan Republic]

In other news, the US COVID-19 death toll is now officially higher than the 9/11 attacks.

[The Romulan Republic]

CNN anchor Chris Cuomo, brother of Governor Andrew Cuomo, diagnosed with COVID-19:

https://cnn.com/2020/03/31/media/chris- ... index.html

[aerius]

In other news, the US COVID-19 death toll is now officially higher than the 9/11 attacks.

In other words, more people in the US die from traffic accidents every month than the death total to date for the Wuhanic Plague.

[MKSheppard]

Evening update 31 MAR 2020.

[The Romulan Republic]

In other news, the US COVID-19 death toll is now officially higher than the 9/11 attacks.

In other words, more people in the US die from traffic accidents every month than the death total to date for the Wuhanic Plague.

Well, there's a reason I eagerly await the development of self-driving cars.

[ray245]

In other news, the US COVID-19 death toll is now officially higher than the 9/11 attacks.

In other words, more people in the US die from traffic accidents every month than the death total to date for the Wuhanic Plague.

Well, exponential growth says hello.

[aerius]

Well, exponential growth says hello.

Worst case scenario is Diamond Princess infection & death rates. So about 20% overall infection rate and about 1% of the infected drop dead. Work that out to the US population and that's about 65 million infected and 700,000 dead. So a bit over twice the number that drop dead from obesity every year or 1.4 times the number of tobacco related deaths. Bad, but hardly the end of the world as we know it.

[Gandalf]

It's kind the same issue experienced in China. It's always the lower level/local authorities and administrators that tends to be the ones trying to gag doctors and healthcare workers. Freedom of speech does not stop lower level admins from being assholes trying to cover their own short-term self-interest.

When their job is to keep things running as smoothly as possible, and if failing at that, pretend things are running as smoothly as possible, then you're not going to recruit people good at handling things when things spiral out of control.

Or you'll just wind up recruiting people who are also good at covering up effects of initial coverups.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, exponential growth says hello.

Worst case scenario is Diamond Princess infection & death rates. So about 20% overall infection rate and about 1% of the infected drop dead. Work that out to the US population and that's about 65 million infected and 700,000 dead. So a bit over twice the number that drop dead from obesity every year or 1.4 times the number of tobacco related deaths. Bad, but hardly the end of the world as we know it.

I'd ask you to stop being a fucking moron, but I know that's beyond your ability. Ditto basic empathy.

Its not that COVID-19 has the super highest death toll of anything ever- its that its all the extra deaths, suddenly, on top of everything else that routinely happens, and that overloads the system.

And no, Diamond Princess isn't the worst case scenario. That was 70% infection rate and low millions dead, if we did absolutely nothing.

But sure, its no big deal- Fuhrer Donald told us so!

[ray245]

Worst case scenario is Diamond Princess infection & death rates. So about 20% overall infection rate and about 1% of the infected drop dead. Work that out to the US population and that's about 65 million infected and 700,000 dead. So a bit over twice the number that drop dead from obesity every year or 1.4 times the number of tobacco related deaths. Bad, but hardly the end of the world as we know it.

That's a model predicated on having enough healthcare resources to take care of people. Once infection rates gets above a certain point, the entire healthcare system will collapse as doctors and nurses starts to get infected and die from the infection as well.

Diamond Princess is actually not the worse case scenario, because even the ship implemented SOME measures to contain the outbreak.

Or you'll just wind up recruiting people who are also good at covering up effects of initial coverups.

Well yeah.

[mr friendly guy]

Just got off the phone with one of the guys I bike with who works as a nurse in a mental health facility. Or should I say worked.

We've had a lockdown in place for a week and almost all the public facing employees at banks, liquor stores, and so forth are wearing masks and gloves. Nurse in a mental health facility? PROHIBITED from wearing masks and protective gear, because reasons. They have patients & families going in & out of the facility, medical personnel going all over the place, and they're not allowed to wear masks. Like what the fuck, are they deliberately trying to spread this shit? Apparently, my acquaintance got into a massive shitfest with management over this and ended up quitting.

Also, lots of concerning news from one of my doctor friends who works in a large hospital where we live. They do not have a separate stream for suspected covid-19 admissions & patients. Everyone gets mixed together in the same waiting rooms and the staff are going back & forth between all areas. Cross-contamination is going to get a ton of regular patients infected with covid-19 and a ton of staff are going to go down with it too. Hospital staff are trying to come up with a makeshift procedure for separating patients & staff to prevent cross-contamination but they haven't even been able to do something like "front door normal patients, covid-19 patients use side door".

In Australia I think things are different between states, however in the state I am working at testing is done at specialise COVID clinics where the buildings for the clinics are somewhat out the way from the main hospital to minimise spread.

But...but my freedom of speech.

Yeah, this is a real issue, but...

Are you even capable of posting anything but smug Whataboutism about how the West are the REAL bad guys?

Obviously I am, have you read this thread? No seriously, have you read what else I posted here?

[Gandalf]

Or you'll just wind up recruiting people who are also good at covering up effects of initial coverups.

Well yeah.

When you say that it's "always the lower level authorities" doing things like silencing health care workers, is this because of a top down expectation, or just something that happens?

[The Romulan Republic]

https://vox.com/recode/2020/3/31/212000 ... -mark-muro

The novel coronavirus pandemic is certainly not good for the labor market. Recent weeks have seen unemployment claims surge to record levels as businesses and entire industries shutter in order to stop the spread of the Covid-19. As a result, the economy has plummeted, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 down more than 20 percent from their February highs.

While social distancing measures may be temporary, this economic downturn’s effect on the labor market will have long-lasting effects. In a joint post with his colleagues, Mark Muro, a senior fellow and policy director at the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program, recently wrote, “any coronavirus-related recession is likely to bring about a spike in labor-replacing automation.”

Economic downturns, he argues, bring about increased levels of automation, which is already an existential threat to many jobs. And a coronavirus recession, due to its breadth and scale, could cause even more automation.

This interview has been lightly edited for clarity and brevity.

Rani Molla
It feels counterintuitive to me that automation would spike in an economic downturn, because automation is expensive, at least in the short term. Why do you expect the rate of automation to increase?

Mark Muro
It might seem that in hard times, in a downturn, human labor would be cheaper and therefore automation would go down. But in fact, it’s the opposite. What happens is that, because of the crisis of the bottom line and a crash in revenue, humans become relatively more expensive compared to automation.

So a firm that might have been thinking about automating is under a whole lot of pressure to do that, especially in the first two years of a new downturn. And that’s what a lot of research over the last few recessions has shown. People are relatively more expensive, including with their benefits. Meanwhile, you can restructure your business using new technology that increases productivity. So the typical move is to replace less-skilled workers with a fewer number of more-skilled workers or retain higher-skilled workers but then to bring in new technology.

The other thing is that new technology, meaning automation but also enterprise software, is no longer nearly as expensive as it was a decade ago, say around the financial crisis. The cost curve has been declining. We think there’s a lot of new high-quality technology on the shelves waiting for deployment, including a more “turnkey” standard offering, often from the big tech companies. So I think a lot has happened to sharpen what was already a highly visible dynamic in the last turndown, the financial crisis.

“What can be automated, likely will be”
Rani Molla
And machines don’t get sick or stay home when there’s a pandemic.

Mark Muro
Right. Viruses may be transferred from one to another, but it’s not the same kind of virus.

Rani Molla
So what exactly has the research shown?

Mark Muro
Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu found that, in three recessions over the last 30 years, 88 percent of job loss took place in routine highly automatable occupations. And that was essentially all of the jobs lost in the crises. So, these crises have historically inordinately been visited on workers whose work actually was automatable.

Another finding by Brad Hershbein and Lisa Kahn of the University of Rochester looked at something like 100 million online job postings and found that firms in the hardest-hit metros were steadily replacing workers who performed automatable routine tasks with this mix of tech, yes, but also more skilled workers. So there’s a kind of sorting that occurs: you get more automation but also upskilling, both of which will be tough for already jittery workers.

Rani Molla
What makes this economic downturn different from the last recession?

Mark Muro
The thing that is different this time is that all that I’ve said about already less-educated, lower-skilled workers is beginning to apply more to middle-skill and even higher-skill professional and white-collar work, which may become more susceptible given the improvement of things like AI. Our recent research has shown that AI is disproportionally utilized in white collar, middle management, or upper management areas. It’s also used by line workers and in administrative functions.

So it could be that all of this use of telecommuting technologies and communication gear may be pointing to the readiness for more wholesale reorganization of offices that may well put more pressure on not just workers in more routine, traditionally automatable occupations, but more professional ones, I think, are very real possibility. I think the big takeaway here is that downturns drive more, not less, dislocation through automation. And all bets are off about how that will work through this cycle, where the event is huge and there may be more ready to go automation, AI, or remote work platforms.

Rani Molla
What jobs were automated after the last recession?

Mark Muro
The initial event had a lot to do with finance, but it was tied up with a substantial crisis in the auto and manufacturing sector. Those were kind of the poster children of the financial crisis, and I think we do have a different picture of the most affected sectors this time.

Rani Molla
So what will be most affected this time?

Mark Muro
Food service and accommodations have already been under a lot of pressure, including through the kind of kiosk ordering. But also the middle-skill administrative positions and offices have been under a lot of pressure. And then, of course, manufacturing has been at the forefront for 30 years. For those who think that manufacturing is as automated as it can be, we still see very high exposures there, and I think the kind of suite of AI susceptible middle management occupations — whether it’s bookkeeping, financial analysis, even things like software development — may see pressure.

“We’re not just losing a job-rich decade, we’re likely diving back into a period of tech-driven structural change”
Rani Molla
Can you spell out what it means to be susceptible to automation or AI?

Mark Muro
Given existing technologies, a total of about 36 million jobs in multiple categories and industries and occupations could be replaced by machines. Now, that doesn’t mean they will. But that gives us a sense of the size of the exposed jobs. It’s not a huge share of the whole economy, but it’s a substantial number of people obviously. That means their work is relatively predictable — or what’s called routine — and therefore susceptible to replacement, either by robotics or office software, for instance.

Rani Molla
Which jobs are safe?

Mark Muro
Health, education, government — those will be under relatively less pressure in some ways, at least of immediate layoffs. But we may also see moves to remote learning, for instance, in education changing the mix of workers or government under fiscal pressure, needing to bring in new technology.

I think this episode seems broader. It will likely touch all kinds of occupations, but there’s no doubt that direct face-to-face interactions for personal health, for instance, will probably be pretty safe. But there will be the need to reduce some of them, so I think that becomes difficult too.

Rani Molla
Your research has also found that automation will increase existing inequality in the United States. How so?

Mark Muro
Because the exposure to automation is shaped heavily by the industries in which particular occupations are situated, we have all kinds of variation across the board. Because the gender or ethnic mix of a particular occupation or industry varies, we see extreme variation there. You have clear vulnerability of younger workers who may be more concentrated in food service or accommodations — jobs that have always been a driver of exposure to automation and that, clearly, is in the forefront under social distancing.

Men are a bit more exposed because of their involvement in the fulfillment and trucking sector, which is showing hiring now because of the huge shift to ecommerce. But it’s also a highly automatable area. So we look for a lot of flux in that area. Then Latinos and black Americans are also in heavily exposed industries and occupations, whether it’s again food service or mid-level office work. So this plays out across all of these occupational mixes. The pandemic pressure then will have its own patterns, but these exposure levels are pretty well known. This doesn’t mean that the jobs will necessarily go away, but it’s a mapping of the shape of exposure and where the pressure may be.

Rani Molla
The fact that this is a global event means it could have an even broader impact than a typical recession. Is that right?

Mark Muro
The scale of the event is largely going to multiply or compound the overall tendency for automation to surge during downturns. We know the cyclical pattern is a historical fact. The sheer scale of this event is going to exacerbate that. You have to think that what can be automated, likely will be now, given that we’ve had a lot of inertia through the good times. The good times aren’t the time when the pressure is applied.

Now, the pressure will be felt by business organizations. And with more technology having arrived and being on its way, I think we will see more pressure, not just in the standard kinds of automation that we’ve seen in the past, whether robotics and factories or kiosk-ordering in restaurants. Retail with cashierless checkouts, such as the Amazon Go stores, may spread. Then I do think we will see more and greater use of AI in the middle class and professional workplace in offices. I think that we’re going to see much more automation than we have even in recent downturns.

Rani Molla
What will the work landscape look like after this?

Mark Muro
The potential scale of this event isn’t just going to bring an end to the plentiful supply of jobs we’ve had. It’s also going to bring, because of this automation link, a new round of much more structural change again, in both what the demand for skills is and what the labor market looks like.

So we’re not just losing a job-rich decade, we’re likely diving back into a period of tech-driven structural change. That’s going add complications for workers, and it’s going to really, really ratchet up the anxiety that I think people feel. Because it’s not like there’s going to be a return to the same normal. There’s likely going to be the insertion of new technological platforms that will change and really alter what normal is.

Well, we were already heading toward a choice between UBI and food riots/revolution. This just accelerated things.

Maybe Bernie Sanders isn't the candidate most vindicated by COVID-19. Maybe its Andrew Yang.

[aerius]

I'd ask you to stop being a fucking moron, but I know that's beyond your ability. Ditto basic empathy.

Its not that COVID-19 has the super highest death toll of anything ever- its that its all the extra deaths, suddenly, on top of everything else that routinely happens, and that overloads the system.

And no, Diamond Princess isn't the worst case scenario. That was 70% infection rate and low millions dead, if we did absolutely nothing.

But sure, its no big deal- Fuhrer Donald told us so!

Show me the math and the proof for that. You can't. Because the testing outside of a few countries in Asia doesn't even come close to getting a statistically valid sampling of the population. We have researchers at Oxford and Stanford who believe the virus is far more widespread than the confirmed cases would suggest. Additionally, they both say we need much better testing, particularly antibody testing to confirm where we are on the curve so that we can make the right policy decisions.

Since that testing isn't available right now, the next best thing we have is the Diamond Princess where we crammed 3700 people on a ship and let the virus run free. Extrapolate that out to the entire US and you add about 25% to the annual deaths. Like I said, bad, but not TEOTWAKI.

[aerius]

In Australia I think things are different between states, however in the state I am working at testing is done at specialise COVID clinics where the buildings for the clinics are somewhat out the way from the main hospital to minimise spread.

We have something similar as well. Problem is what happens when someone tests positive and requires further medical attention. It's not like China where they get sent to a special covid-19 only facility or even a separate dedicated wing of a normal hospital. Nah. They go right through general admissions at the regular hospitals and potentially infect a bunch of other patients, or worse, they infect the staff who then cross-contaminate everyone else in the hospital.

We're setting up a situation where hospitals may become the hot spots for spreading the disease. NYC may have reached this stage, they've got almost everything locked down except the hospitals, if their cases keep going up at the same rate in the next week or so it's evidence that hospitals are a major vector once the disease gets a certain level of penetration.

[The Romulan Republic]

Putin may have been exposed:

https://businessinsider.com/russian-doc ... rus-2020-3

A Russian doctor who was in proximity to Russian President Vladimir Putin last week was diagnosed with the novel coronavirus, according to the country's primary hospital dealing with the outbreak.

Denis Protsenko, the chief of the Kommunarka hospital, was seen greeting Putin on March 24. The two shook hands and walked together as Putin toured the hospital.

At one point during the tour, Putin exchanged his suit for hazardous-material gear and also an Asics track suit.

Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said "everything is fine" and reiterated that the Russian president was being regularly tested for the coronavirus, according to AFP.

Protsenko reportedly confirmed on his Facebook account that he tested positive and was self-quarantining himself to his office.

"I think the immunity I've developed this month is doing its job," he said on Facebook, according to Reuters.

Protsenko, who frequently gives updates to the public on the country's coronavirus response, has reportedly grown in notoriety amid the outbreak for his briefings. Roughly 2,337 cases and 17 deaths have been reported as of Tuesday, leading some experts to theorize the country may be underplaying the disease's spread and severity.

"The situation is on the whole under control," Putin said on March 18. "Russia looks much better compared with other countries."

Lawmakers approved of a preliminary measure to allow the government to declare a national emergency after Moscow declared a lockdown on Sunday. Residents were permitted to leave their homes only for food or medical requirements, walking their dogs, or emptying their trash, Reuters reported.

Violators could be subject to seven years in prison and an equivalent of a $25,500 fine.

Do you have a personal experience with the coronavirus you'd like to share? Or a tip on how your town or community is handling the pandemic? Please email covidtips@businessinsider.com and tell us your story.

And get the latest coronavirus analysis and research from Business Insider Intelligence on how COVID-19 is impacting businesses.

Hope Vladimort croaks.

[mr friendly guy]

Show me the math and the proof for that. You can't. Because the testing outside of a few countries in Asia doesn't even come close to getting a statistically valid sampling of the population. We have researchers at Oxford and Stanford who believe the virus is far more widespread than the confirmed cases would suggest. Additionally, they both say we need much better testing, particularly antibody testing to confirm where we are on the curve so that we can make the right policy decisions.

Since that testing isn't available right now, the next best thing we have is the Diamond Princess where we crammed 3700 people on a ship and let the virus run free. Extrapolate that out to the entire US and you add about 25% to the annual deaths. Like I said, bad, but not TEOTWAKI.

I imagine this is going to be expensive. A quick skim read of their points are that people are being missed because current test only detect people who have the infection. Antibody tests obviously will test those who had the infection and recovered. However to help them understand exactly who is has been infected, they would need to test presumably a shit load of people who are currently well to see if you had been infected (unless they just focus on people who had symptoms in Jan and recovered). Either way I imagine this will cost resources and with the current testing kits strained as it is, I wonder how we're going to do that.

And you're going to love the next article I am posting. Guess which country is going to send aid to the US. No, its not China. Its Russia. Cue the Russiagate conspiracy.

[The Romulan Republic]

Show me the math and the proof for that. You can't. Because the testing outside of a few countries in Asia doesn't even come close to getting a statistically valid sampling of the population. We have researchers at Oxford and Stanford who believe the virus is far more widespread than the confirmed cases would suggest. Additionally, they both say we need much better testing, particularly antibody testing to confirm where we are on the curve so that we can make the right policy decisions.

Since that testing isn't available right now, the next best thing we have is the Diamond Princess where we crammed 3700 people on a ship and let the virus run free. Extrapolate that out to the entire US and you add about 25% to the annual deaths. Like I said, bad, but not TEOTWAKI.

I imagine this is going to be expensive. A quick skim read of their points are that people are being missed because current test only detect people who have the infection. Antibody tests obviously will test those who had the infection and recovered. However to help them understand exactly who is has been infected, they would need to test presumably a shit load of people who are currently well to see if you had been infected (unless they just focus on people who had symptoms in Jan and recovered). Either way I imagine this will cost resources and with the current testing kits strained as it is, I wonder how we're going to do that.

And you're going to love the next article I am posting. Guess which country is going to send aid to the US. No, its not China. Its Russia. Cue the Russiagate conspiracy.

I fully support international aid and cooperation between all countries in fighting a pandemic. Your attempt to equate this to, and use it to ridicule, the repeatedly proven interference by Russian in American elections is as pathetic as it is dishonest. Although I'm sure you think that Russia helping to foist President Trump on us counts as "aiding" America, given your obvious dictator fetish.

Incidentally, I hold the Russian government partly responsible for the COVID-19 crisis in America, as it played a not-inconsiderable role in making Trump the man in charge of the response.

[mr friendly guy]

Long article from Vox on COVID 19 and India, but this line struck me.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/24/21190868/ ... wn-kashmir

We expect 55 percent of the Indian people will get Covid-19 infection: 300 to 500 million cases over the next four months,” Dr. SP Kalantri, the medical superintendent of the Kasturba Hospital in central India, told me before Modi announced the lockdown. “If the current disease trajectory is anything to go by, we expect 1 million or 2 million deaths in India over a one-year period.”

Jesus fucking Christ.

Edit - other sources I hear is that the 300 to 500 million cases was prior to India's lockdown. The prediction is the lockdown shaves off 50 to 80% of this number, so its 60 to 100 million infected.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah, it still hasn't fully sunk in for people that what we're facing right now is a global disaster on the scale of the Depression and WWII. But it will.

[aerius]

Hope Vladimort croaks.

I'd ask to think about the geopolitical consequences of a major nuclear power collapsing in disorder if Putin croaks, but you're clearly not capable of using your brain.

[The Romulan Republic]

Hope Vladimort croaks.

I'd ask to think about the geopolitical consequences of a major nuclear power collapsing in disorder if Putin croaks, but you're clearly not capable of using your brain.

It occurred to me- but so do the geopolitical consequences of the US collapsing in disorder, which he's done everything he can to push us toward. To say nothing of the dead in Chechnya, Syria, the Ukraine...

The man's a murderous, expansionist despot who, thanks to his control over the Russian Mafia-political system and his nuclear arsenal, is about as immune to consequences as any human being can realistically be. Death by natural causes is the only real justice ever likely to find such a man.

[aerius]

It occurred to me- but so do the geopolitical consequences of the US collapsing in disorder, which he's done everything he can to push us toward. To say nothing of the dead in Chechnya, Syria, the Ukraine...

The man's a murderous, expansionist despot who, thanks to his control over the Russian Mafia-political system and his nuclear arsenal, is about as immune to consequences as any human being can realistically be. Death by natural causes is the only real justice ever likely to find such a man.

Really? Really? So you'd want Putin to croak and potentially set off a major power struggle that goes nuclear and kills a few billion people. Because that would be real justice for his crimes against humanity.

Dude, log off the internet and get help. I'm not even joking.