The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

[bilateralrope]

New Zealand's new case graph. The downward trend is looking solid.


We are currently at 471 recovered cases and 4 deaths. All the dead were over 70.

[bilateralrope]

Covid-19 lockdown: Nearly 1000 motel units available for homeless

Nearly 1000 motel units have been made available for the homeless community since the lockdown began.

Minister for Housing Megan Woods said nearly 500 units were already filled and each unit could contain one person or a family, RNZ reports.

"As of Thursday evening, 962 motel units in 15 towns and cities across New Zealand had been secured and made available, and 496 units already have homeless and vulnerable people living in them," she said.

Government agencies were working very closely with iwi, community housing providers such as Housing First, Māori organisations, and local government to fill the remaining units, Woods said.

She praised the various community groups for their dedication and speed.

"In the last two weeks, there has been a massive effort to connect people who are homeless and living rough, with accommodation and social services.

"Many have been living on the streets or in unsuitable places where social distancing was not possible."

Woods said support services were ensuring people had ongoing support including assisting people with food parcels, hygiene packs and occasionally phones.

"Community groups also tell me more people who have been living rough are now coming forward for help, so now they have started engaging they can continue to help them."

Most motels had been rented for about three months and the government was looking at longer term measures to keep people housed post-lockdown, she said.

We certainly don't want people going back onto the street," she said.

Woods said the priority after lockdown would be reaching the 1000 transitional houses places as set out in the Homelessness Action Plan.

The homeless get somewhere to live, where they can maintain social distancing. These motels get to have income during the lockdown, and then while our borders are closed. Win/win.

[Broomstick]

US has passed Italy for highest death toll of any country in the world.

And New York City now has more cases than any individual country elsewhere in the world.

New York City was always going to be hit hard because it's a large, dense city with lots of international travel, but I can't help but think that more could have and should have been done.

[ray245]

US has passed Italy for highest death toll of any country in the world.

And New York City now has more cases than any individual country elsewhere in the world.

New York City was always going to be hit hard because it's a large, dense city with lots of international travel, but I can't help but think that more could have and should have been done.

It probably should have implemented very aggressive contact tracing early on, and also implemented self-quarantine measures from all travellers from Europe( given that this seems to be where most of the East coast got the virus from). But the problem is a lot of those measures are simply not possible without a federal response.

Or it could have implemented a lockdown in the early days of the outbreak to reduce the number of cases, then slowly open up once they are able to build up the resources for mass-testing.

[Broomstick]

US has passed Italy for highest death toll of any country in the world.

And New York City now has more cases than any individual country elsewhere in the world.

New York City was always going to be hit hard because it's a large, dense city with lots of international travel, but I can't help but think that more could have and should have been done.

It probably should have implemented very aggressive contact tracing early on, and also implemented self-quarantine measures from all travellers from Europe( given that this seems to be where most of the East coast got the virus from). But the problem is a lot of those measures are simply not possible without a federal response.

Or it could have implemented a lockdown in the early days of the outbreak to reduce the number of cases, then slowly open up once they are able to build up the resources for mass-testing.

Incorrect. All of those responses are possible on a state level, and indeed, what measures were implemented were implemented by Governor Cuomo.

A Federal suggestion and response much earlier on, though, would have lead the governors to act earlier and let them act more aggressively.

The Feds have done fuck all and jackshit. It's the state governors that are taking action during this pandemic.

Thank god we have governors willing to use their authority and willing to act, because if we had to wait on a Federal response it would be "business as usual" until we got to the point of trucks going up and down the street with speakers saying "bring out your dead".

[ray245]

Incorrect. All of those responses are possible on a state level, and indeed, what measures were implemented were implemented by Governor Cuomo.

A Federal suggestion and response much earlier on, though, would have lead the governors to act earlier and let them act more aggressively.

The Feds have done fuck all and jackshit. It's the state governors that are taking action during this pandemic.

Thank god we have governors willing to use their authority and willing to act, because if we had to wait on a Federal response it would be "business as usual" until we got to the point of trucks going up and down the street with speakers saying "bring out your dead".

Aggressive contact tracing is not possible without testing, and the US response has been delayed because the CDC refuse to allow local authorities to conduct testing.

Does governors have the authority to restrict travel travel into the United States, and thus reduce the numbers of travellers down to a level where you can safely isolate all confirmed and suspected cases from returning Americans?

Right now, I'm still not sure if the US can lift lockdown and contain any new outbreak if there is no measures in place to do aggressive contact-tracing.

[Broomstick]

Incorrect. All of those responses are possible on a state level, and indeed, what measures were implemented were implemented by Governor Cuomo.

A Federal suggestion and response much earlier on, though, would have lead the governors to act earlier and let them act more aggressively.

The Feds have done fuck all and jackshit. It's the state governors that are taking action during this pandemic.

Thank god we have governors willing to use their authority and willing to act, because if we had to wait on a Federal response it would be "business as usual" until we got to the point of trucks going up and down the street with speakers saying "bring out your dead".

Aggressive contact tracing is not possible without testing, and the US response has been delayed because the CDC refuse to allow local authorities to conduct testing.

The CDC does not actually have the authority to stop states doing their own testing, and in fact states have gone ahead with their own testing. The FDA has some authority, but in practice the Feds couldn't be bothered to get off their ass and do anything if a state was determined to push ahead.

Does governors have the authority to restrict travel travel into the United States, and thus reduce the numbers of travellers down to a level where you can safely isolate all confirmed and suspected cases from returning Americans?

Governors have the authority to shut down airports, commercial bus stations, and the like outside of Federal transport (like the post office). That would, effectively, shut down incoming international travel for that state. But I'm sure you can see the issue if, say, New York shut all that down but New Jersey was still allowing international flights, after which people could travel by road into New York. Shutting down roads into and out of a state is a bit problematic. In theory, it could be done under the aegis of a public emergency. Suffice to say it's never come up since the era of the interstate highway system.

The biggest problem are the folks screaming about individual rights and freedoms with a complete lack of understanding of why they might need to be temporarily restricted for the benefit of all.

Right now, I'm still not sure if the US can lift lockdown and contain any new outbreak if there is no measures in place to do aggressive contact-tracing.

Let's get this clear - there is no "US lockdown".

What we have is mostly state lockdowns under the powers of the state governors, with a smattering of county and city level lockdowns. Trump is talking about re-opening the country as if it's his decision. It's not. That decision currently rests with the governors, not the PotUS.

That aside - yes, we need contract-tracing to lift the lockdowns without re-starting the outbreak(s). A problem with that is that no one trusts the current government to be responsible about information or privacy or limits.

[bilateralrope]

Shutting down roads into and out of a state is a bit problematic. In theory, it could be done under the aegis of a public emergency. Suffice to say it's never come up since the era of the interstate highway system.

Which, if any, states have enough manpower to close off all roads that cross the state border ?

Because you know that some people will look for a road they can get in through. Or go offroad if the terrain is suitable.

[Zaune]

Aggressive contact tracing is not possible without testing, and the US response has been delayed because the CDC refuse to allow local authorities to conduct testing.

Does governors have the authority to restrict travel travel into the United States, and thus reduce the numbers of travellers down to a level where you can safely isolate all confirmed and suspected cases from returning Americans?

Right now, I'm still not sure if the US can lift lockdown and contain any new outbreak if there is no measures in place to do aggressive contact-tracing.

I would also like to reiterate that aggressive contact tracing would be an incredibly helpful resource for a federal government that was planning a comprehensive program of ethnic cleansing, a suggestion I would have been a lot more inclined to dismiss as absurd five years ago but now feel we have to contemplate as a non-hypothetical.

[Ralin]

Which, if any, states have enough manpower to close off all roads that cross the state border ?

Because you know that some people will look for a road they can get in through. Or go offroad if the terrain is suitable.

Well shit man, pretty sure China wasn't able to stop that from happening with Wuhan. Stopping most people trying to enter or leave the state is more effective than stopping none.

[ray245]

The CDC does not actually have the authority to stop states doing their own testing, and in fact states have gone ahead with their own testing. The FDA has some authority, but in practice the Feds couldn't be bothered to get off their ass and do anything if a state was determined to push ahead.

Fair, but have states dared to ignore the federal government in regards to testing?

Governors have the authority to shut down airports, commercial bus stations, and the like outside of Federal transport (like the post office). That would, effectively, shut down incoming international travel for that state. But I'm sure you can see the issue if, say, New York shut all that down but New Jersey was still allowing international flights, after which people could travel by road into New York. Shutting down roads into and out of a state is a bit problematic. In theory, it could be done under the aegis of a public emergency. Suffice to say it's never come up since the era of the interstate highway system.

The biggest problem are the folks screaming about individual rights and freedoms with a complete lack of understanding of why they might need to be temporarily restricted for the benefit of all.

It would prevent Americans from coming back home though? Or they will just find alternative routes to go back home. Shutting down travel is not necessary needed, as long as you can bring down travellers to a level you can track and trace the imported cases.

As for folks who scream about individual rights, those would still be a minority? A significant minority, but sooner or later they will have to go along if there is nothing to do in the city squares and etc.

That aside - yes, we need contract-tracing to lift the lockdowns without re-starting the outbreak(s). A problem with that is that no one trusts the current government to be responsible about information or privacy or limits.

I completely get that. However, it will boil down to a hard choice between maintaining more lockdowns ( on a state-level as you said), or sacrificing private information. I think as pandemics and novel virus becomes an increasingly common issue to deal with, society will end up being forced to sacrifice privacy rights.

The only hope is there is some safeguards in place when the law is being written up.

I would also like to reiterate that aggressive contact tracing would be an incredibly helpful resource for a federal government that was planning a comprehensive program of ethnic cleansing, a suggestion I would have been a lot more inclined to dismiss as absurd five years ago but now feel we have to contemplate as a non-hypothetical.

It would. But the alternative you have to put up with is repeated cycles of lockdown whenever a novel virus that is as dangerous as COVID-19 is found in society.

Nature isn't giving humanity much of a choice now.

[MKSheppard]

Which, if any, states have enough manpower to close off all roads that cross the state border ?

park multiple heavy dump trucks lengthwise in the road, staggered; place jersey concrete barriers across road. You can still get past on foot, but vehicular traffic is impossible.

You only need manpower to park and set up the jersey barriers with gradalls, and then maybe a cop or so checking every few hours.

[Zaune]

It would. But the alternative you have to put up with is repeated cycles of lockdown whenever a novel virus that is as dangerous as COVID-19 is found in society.

I don't know about you, but I can live with that if it makes the GOP's Final Solution to the Hispanic Problem harder to pull off.

[ray245]

I don't know about you, but I can live with that if it makes the GOP's Final Solution to the Hispanic Problem harder to pull off.

Well it's your choice, but it depends on what the rest of your community value as well. Constant lockdowns can deal massive economic damage to the minorities as well. Moreover, the current spread of the disease are affecting the minority population more heavily in comparison to White Americans.

Not being able to contain the virus does mean the minorities will be forced to chose between their data being monitored, or risk death and economic hardship even further.

It's much easier to say you can live with it if you are speaking from a relatively well-off position ( not saying you are), but it's much more difficult to say the same for minorities who are stuck in small apartments with barely any space as they inevitably catch the virus and are in danger of death because of the age or health issues.

[loomer]

I'm not entirely sure that the mechanisms necessary for high granularity contact tracing aren't already in place, anyway - so not using it doesn't necessarily prevent those same techniques being used for the roundups.

[ray245]

I'm not entirely sure that the mechanisms necessary for high granularity contact tracing aren't already in place, anyway - so not using it doesn't necessarily prevent those same techniques being used for the roundups.

Aggressive contact-tracing doesn't actually mean tracking people's personal data. In many countries, it is simply a case of asking the patient where they have been to, who they have met over the past 2 weeks, and proceed to isolate those people as well.

Korea made use of phone data because the population as a whole by and large back those measures after the MERS outbreak in 2015. And it generally helps that the current government is largely trusted by the population to not misuse such information.

From what I understand, the technology is already there. It is merely held by phone companies and other tech firms as opposed to it being held by the government. Right now, it's mostly used to send people targeted advertisement based on where they have been to and etc.

[Zaune]

Well, this is just the kind of news I wanted to fucking read today. Apparently all autistic people should be considered ineligible for life-sustaining treatment because... You know what, I don't even want to know why somebody thought this was a good idea. BBC News

A GP surgery which said autistic adults should have plans to prevent them being resuscitated if they become critically ill has been criticised.

Voyage Care, which cares for the group, was sent the letter by a surgery in Somerset amid the coronavirus crisis.

On Twitter, the firm's boss Andrew Cannon said there had been "no consultation with families" and most involved were "working age adults".

Somerset Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) has declined to name the surgery.

It said it was investigating the matter.

The paperwork is known as a "do not resuscitate" (DNR) order or an advanced care plan.

It is sometimes used if someone is nearing the end of their life or have a complex medical condition.

The paperwork is usually drawn up by medical professionals with the co-operation of the patient in question, if they have capacity to do so, or with their family.

The Somerset Local Medical Committee, which represents all GP practices in the county, said the letter had been withdrawn.

The CCG was alerted by the Somerset Parent Carer Forum.

A forum spokesman said: "We have reported our concerns to Somerset CCG that this has happened with our area and they are taking this matter very seriously.

"The CCG are investigating the reports that have been made and have assured us they will take appropriate action. Please do let us know if you come across this."

Similar cases happened last week in Brighton and south Wales, as health and social carers respond to the coronavirus pandemic.

A number of organisations, including NHS England and the British Medical Association, have issued guidance in recent days to say blanket DNRs - covering all the people at one setting - are "unacceptable" and all decisions must been made on an individual basis.

They also say a learning disability, autism or stable long-term disability like cerebral palsy, are not in themselves ever reasons for a DNR.

Original tweet here: https://twitter.com/VoyageCEO/status/12 ... 4396587008

I want to punch someone for this and I requested no life-sustaining treatment if I get this damn virus.

[loomer]

Unfortunately high-grade ableism is more and more of an issue as this thing grinds on. It's a nice reminder that us cripples and the neurodivergent are viewed as being legitimately lower forms of life than everyone else.

[loomer]

As a quick clarification, I mean that legitimate in the sense of 'they see us that way' and not as the position actually being legitimate.

[Zaune]

I knew what you meant, but thank you.

[MKSheppard]

4-12-2020 Update:

NYC and New Orleans Data is 4 hours "fresh" at this point.

Graphs behind spoiler so they don't break formatting.
Spoiler

Takeaways:

Italy & Spain Look like they're past the "peak kill" phase; which appears to last about 16 to 18 days.

USA We've definitely broken away from the Spanish model. Given the slow linear increase; I think we'll probably top out around 10 deaths per million; as opposed to the apocalyptic spanish 14-17 deaths per million.

UK is tracking very closely with Italy.

France Very hard to tell whats going on, since they seem to report deaths every other day, skewing data.

[Ace Pace]

Shep, any chance your U.S. numbers are undercounting by 20-30 percent since you only see confirmed covid-19 deaths?

[Captain Seafort]

France Very hard to tell whats going on, since they seem to report deaths every other day, skewing data.

I think what's happening there is that they're routinely reporting hospital deaths, but only intermittently updating non-hospital deaths.

Out of curiosity, what's the reason for the delay between the D/million and D/total graphs for Spain and Italy?

[Formless]

The CDC does not actually have the authority to stop states doing their own testing, and in fact states have gone ahead with their own testing. The FDA has some authority, but in practice the Feds couldn't be bothered to get off their ass and do anything if a state was determined to push ahead.

Fair, but have states dared to ignore the federal government in regards to testing?

Colorado developed its own test(s) some time in March before the Federal government's test was ready and has been using it ever since.

Keep in mind though that Colorado actually has the biotech industry to create its own testing. CU Boulder is one of the best research universities in the field, even though you rarely hear about that outside of the state. Plus there are several Colorado based biotech companies that pitched in to create their own tests that the state approved for use. Hell, I know at least one of those companies is also doing research on creating a vaccine. Not all states have the scientific and technological expertise to do this. But Colorado does. Its also the reason some sources have not been talking about Colorado's numbers, because they were relying solely on the CDC's tracking, and the CDC wasn't counting the data coming out of Colorado on account of it using a different test from the Feds.

[Broomstick]

Shutting down roads into and out of a state is a bit problematic. In theory, it could be done under the aegis of a public emergency. Suffice to say it's never come up since the era of the interstate highway system.

Which, if any, states have enough manpower to close off all roads that cross the state border ?

I am not at all certain that ANY state could do that. Maybe one of the geographically smaller ones like Rhode Island, but even there it's problematic.

Hawaii, of course, being the big exception - it's way the frack out in the middle of the Pacific. No roads from there to any other state